CollegeVolleyball

2026 NCAA Tournament · Projection

Bracketology

Data through · last match Nov 5

32 automatic + 32 at-large · 10,000 simulated seasons

Projected No. 1 seeds

A projection of Selection Sunday, not a ranking of today: every remaining match is simulated, the field is picked and seeded by a model of the committee's 2022-25 selections, and the bracket is played out. How it works →

Seed lines 2 through 8

Record · % to reach the Final Four

  1. 2seed
  2. 3seed
  3. 4seed
    ↑ Top 16 host rounds 1-2
  4. 5seed
  5. 6seed
  6. 7seed
  7. 8seed

The committee seeds 32 teams, four on each line from 1 to 8, one per region. Lines 1-4 are the top 16 and host the first two rounds.

The bubble at-large teams only

32 at-large spots

Last four in

At-large chance

First four out

At-large chance
  • DePaul logoDePaul

    16-7 · RPI 48 · 2-5 vs top 50 · in field 32%

    27%

  • Michigan logoMichigan

    14-10 · RPI 45 · 2-8 vs top 50

    25%

  • LMU (CA) logoLMU (CA)

    20-3 · RPI 47 · 0-2 vs top 50 · in field 47%

    19%

  • Miami (FL) logoMiami (FL)

    11-10 · RPI 62 · 2-8 vs top 50

    14%

Next four out

At-large chance
  • Georgia logoGeorgia

    14-7 · RPI 52 · 1-6 vs top 50

    13%

  • Mississippi St. logoMississippi St.

    17-5 · RPI 61 · 0-4 vs top 50

    12%

  • Iowa St. logoIowa St.

    13-10 · RPI 67 · 1-6 vs top 50

    3%

  • Harvard logoHarvard

    16-3 · RPI 54 · 2-0 vs top 50 · in field 9%

    1%

How to read it

At-large teams only, ordered by their at-large chance: how often they are selected in the simulations where they don't win their conference. The projected field gives every league to its favorite, which leaves all 32 at-large spots open. In a typical simulated season a few favorites lose their tournament and take an at-large spot instead, so the last teams drawn into this field are selected well under half the time (the lowest here is 29%). Read the number, not the side of the line.

The field and its odds

64 teams, projected committee order · all six rounds on a wider screen

All 64 in projected committee order. Each number is the share of simulated seasons in which the team gets that far, so it already includes the chance of missing the field.

#TeamIn fieldReg. semiFinal 4Title
1Nebraska logoNebraskaBig Ten>99%>99%89%59%
1Pittsburgh logoPittsburghACC>99%95%70%17%
1Louisville logoLouisvilleAt-large>99%94%64%13%
1Wisconsin logoWisconsinAt-large>99%80%24%1%
2Kentucky logoKentuckySEC>99%88%32%4%
2Florida logoFloridaAt-large>99%81%19%1%
2SMU logoSMUAt-large>99%75%12%<1%
2BYU logoBYUBig 12>99%77%13%1%
3Arizona St. logoArizona St.At-large>99%77%13%1%
3Oregon logoOregonAt-large>99%58%4%<1%
3Texas logoTexasAt-large>99%65%8%<1%
3Penn St. logoPenn St.At-large>99%59%5%<1%
4Minnesota logoMinnesotaAt-large>99%66%8%<1%
4TCU logoTCUAt-large>99%45%2%<1%
4Kansas logoKansasAt-large>99%66%9%<1%
4Tennessee logoTennesseeAt-large>99%61%8%<1%
5Vanderbilt logoVanderbiltAt-large>99%42%3%<1%
5Western Ky. logoWestern Ky.C-USA>99%13%<1%0%
5Washington logoWashingtonAt-large>99%30%1%0%
5Texas A&M logoTexas A&MAt-large>99%38%3%<1%
6Baylor logoBaylorAt-large>99%32%2%0%
6North Carolina logoNorth CarolinaAt-large>99%32%2%<1%
6Purdue logoPurdueAt-large>99%36%3%<1%
6UCLA logoUCLAAt-large>99%18%<1%0%
7Colorado St. logoColorado St.Pac-12>99%20%<1%0%
7Stanford logoStanfordAt-large>99%20%2%0%
7Indiana logoIndianaAt-large>99%18%<1%0%
7Marquette logoMarquetteAt-large>99%10%<1%0%
8Illinois logoIllinoisAt-large>99%18%1%0%
8Creighton logoCreightonBig East>99%8%<1%0%
8Colorado logoColoradoAt-large97%7%<1%0%
8Michigan St. logoMichigan St.At-large95%17%1%0%
Unseeded · 32 of the 64
–Eastern Ky. logoEastern Ky.UAC92%2%0%0%
–Toledo logoToledoMAC>99%3%0%0%
–Yale logoYaleIvy League76%1%0%0%
–Pepperdine logoPepperdineWCC94%2%0%0%
–Missouri logoMissouriAt-large93%7%<1%0%
–Hawaii logoHawaiiMountain West74%4%<1%0%
–South Dakota logoSouth DakotaSummit League58%<1%0%0%
–Utah logoUtahAt-large62%5%<1%0%
–Bowling Green logoBowling GreenLast four in68%<1%0%0%
–Georgia Tech logoGeorgia TechLast four in39%5%<1%0%
–High Point logoHigh PointBig South70%<1%0%0%
–Ball St. logoBall St.At-large75%<1%0%0%
–Dayton logoDaytonA-1091%1%0%0%
–Wright St. logoWright St.Horizon66%<1%0%0%
–San Diego logoSan DiegoLast four in35%2%<1%0%
–UNI logoUNIMVC86%4%0%0%
–Oklahoma logoOklahomaLast four in29%1%0%0%
–American logoAmericanPatriot53%<1%0%0%
–Rice logoRiceAmerican30%<1%0%0%
–Lipscomb logoLipscombASUN62%<1%0%0%
–Col. of Charleston logoCol. of CharlestonCAA52%<1%0%0%
–Arkansas St. logoArkansas St.Sun Belt39%1%0%0%
–Cal Poly logoCal PolyBig West67%4%<1%0%
–Utah Tech logoUtah TechBig Sky47%<1%0%0%
–Lindenwood logoLindenwoodOVC59%<1%0%0%
–Fairfield logoFairfieldMAAC66%0%0%0%
–UMBC logoUMBCAmerica East69%<1%0%0%
–Wofford logoWoffordSoCon62%<1%0%0%
–UIW logoUIWSouthland36%<1%0%0%
–LIU logoLIUNEC93%0%0%0%
–Coppin St. logoCoppin St.MEAC76%0%0%0%
–Alabama A&M logoAlabama A&MSWAC48%0%0%0%

# is the seed line; teams without one are unseeded (32 of the 64). The tag under each team is its bid: the conference for a projected automatic qualifier, otherwise at-large.

Automatic bids by conference

32 conferences · sorted by average bids

Each conference champion is in. The two most likely champions per league, and how many bids the league averages across the simulations.

  • Big Ten

    11.2 bids

    Nebraska logoNebraska

    87%

    Next: Wisconsin 5%

  • SEC

    7.5 bids

    Kentucky logoKentucky

    41%

    Next: Florida 26%

  • Big 12

    6.6 bids

    BYU logoBYU

    98%

    Next: Arizona St. <1%

  • ACC

    5.5 bids

    Pittsburgh logoPittsburgh

    60%

    Next: Louisville 40%

  • MAC

    2.6 bids

    Toledo logoToledo

    38%

    Next: Ball St. 28%

  • Big East

    2.3 bids

    Creighton logoCreighton

    50%

    Next: Marquette 41%

  • WCC

    1.8 bids

    Pepperdine logoPepperdine

    65%

    Next: LMU (CA) 35%

  • A-10

    1.4 bids

    Dayton logoDayton

    53%

    Next: Loyola Chicago 31%

  • C-USA

    1.3 bids

    Western Ky. logoWestern Ky.

    72%

    Next: Missouri St. 13%

  • Pac-12

    1.2 bids

    Colorado St. logoColorado St.

    80%

    Next: San Diego St. 13%

  • Mountain West

    1.2 bids

    Hawaii logoHawaii

    56%

    Next: UC Davis 28%

  • UAC

    1.2 bids

    Eastern Ky. logoEastern Ky.

    75%

    Next: North Ala. 17%

  • Summit League

    1.1 bids

    South Dakota logoSouth Dakota

    49%

    Next: South Dakota St. 24%

  • Horizon

    1.1 bids

    Wright St. logoWright St.

    59%

    Next: Northern Ky. 30%

  • Ivy League

    1.1 bids

    Yale logoYale

    71%

    Next: Cornell 18%

  • Sun Belt

    1.0 bids

    Arkansas St. logoArkansas St.

    37%

    Next: Ga. Southern 32%

  • Big South

    1.0 bids

    High Point logoHigh Point

    68%

    Next: Winthrop 25%

  • American

    1.0 bids

    Rice logoRice

    29%

    Next: Tulsa 28%

  • Big West

    1.0 bids

    Cal Poly logoCal Poly

    67%

    Next: Long Beach St. 27%

  • NEC

    1.0 bids

    LIU logoLIU

    93%

    Next: FDU 5%

  • SoCon

    1.0 bids

    Wofford logoWofford

    62%

    Next: UNC Greensboro 14%

  • Southland

    1.0 bids

    UIW logoUIW

    36%

    Next: SFA 33%

  • ASUN

    1.0 bids

    Lipscomb logoLipscomb

    62%

    Next: FGCU 31%

  • Patriot

    1.0 bids

    American logoAmerican

    52%

    Next: Lehigh 40%

  • CAA

    1.0 bids

    Col. of Charleston logoCol. of Charleston

    52%

    Next: Hofstra 29%

  • MVC

    1.0 bids

    UNI logoUNI

    86%

    Next: Belmont 9%

  • MAAC

    1.0 bids

    Fairfield logoFairfield

    66%

    Next: Marist 15%

  • OVC

    1.0 bids

    Lindenwood logoLindenwood

    59%

    Next: Southeast Mo. St. 38%

  • SWAC

    1.0 bids

    Alabama A&M logoAlabama A&M

    48%

    Next: Florida A&M 34%

  • Big Sky

    1.0 bids

    Utah Tech logoUtah Tech

    47%

    Next: Northern Colo. 17%

  • MEAC

    1.0 bids

    Coppin St. logoCoppin St.

    76%

    Next: Delaware St. 12%

  • America East

    1.0 bids

    UMBC logoUMBC

    69%

    Next: New Hampshire 21%

How the projection works

Run Nov 6, 4:30 AM CT

Matches played
4,046
746 still to play
Simulations
10,000
run Nov 6, 4:30 AM CT
At-large picks
125 of 130
matched the real 2022-25 fields (RPI alone: 124)
  1. 1

    Play out the season. Every remaining scheduled match between two Division I teams is simulated 10,000 times with RallyIQ win probabilities (home court included). Then each conference's tournament is played to find its automatic qualifier. Ratings are not treated as exact: each simulated season first redraws every team's serve and receive rating around today's number, by about as much as ratings on this date in 2025 sat from the same teams' level over the rest of that season, and plays the whole season and bracket with the redrawn ratings.

  2. 2

    Rebuild the RPI. The committee's first criterion is the Rating Percentage Index: 25% winning percentage, 50% opponents' winning percentage, 25% opponents' opponents', plus bonuses for top-50 wins and penalties for losses near the bottom. We rebuild it from results. Against the NCAA's published table (through Oct. 04 2026), 346 of 348 teams land on the exact same rank (without the bonus and penalty step: 123).

  3. 3

    Pick and seed. The 32 at-large spots and the seed order come from a small model of three things on each team's sheet: its RPI, its wins over the RPI top 50, and its losses outside the top 100. It was fitted on the real fields of 2022 through 2025 and checked one season at a time on a season it had not seen: it called 125 of 130 at-large teams and put 51 of 64 top-16 seeds on the exact line. Ranking by RPI alone gets 124 of 130 and 45 of 64. The gap on at-large picks is one team in four years: treat it as a tie.

  4. 4

    Play the bracket. The top 32 are placed on lines 1-8 in four regions, the top 16 host the first two rounds, each regional goes to its best remaining seed, and the Final Four is on a neutral floor. The odds are how often each team gets there.