Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Xavier def. Seton Hall 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Xavier 92.6% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Xavier won at Seton Hall 3-1 (25-18, 24-26, 25-15, 25-23) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Xavier's Ava Tilden led with 20 kills, and Kelsey Niesen added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
XAVIER252425253
SETON182615231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Xavier led every phase, and nothing ever turned.

The biggest single-rally swing was 4.9 points, and Seton Hall's high was 18% in Set 4. The gap came from these numbers. RallyIQ gave Xavier 93% before first serve.

XavierSeton Hall
  • Break %+11.7 pts
    41.830.1

    41 of 98 on serve vs 25 of 83, so Seton Hall's sideout was 58.2%.

  • Longest run+1
    54

    5 straight Xavier points in the first set turned a 0–1 deficit into a 5–1 lead. That set ended 25–18.

Seton Hall above 50Xavier belowMax swing 4.9%

XavierSeton Hall

Hitting
Xavier .321·Seton Hall .257
Aces
Xavier 8·Seton Hall 2
Serve err
Xavier 12·Seton Hall 7
Blocks
Xavier 7·Seton Hall 43 BS · 8 BA vs 3 BS · 2 BA
Digs
Xavier 55·Seton Hall 58

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Seton Hall above 50 · Xavier below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.9% XAVIERrally 181 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.9% to Xavier — set 4, XAVIER 23-22 SETON. Samantha Shelton stuffed by Macy Hatkevich. SETON win probability 10% → 6%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

XAVIER 89.3%10.7% SETON

Xavier wins

3-0
43.2%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
14.5%

Seton Hall wins

3-0
1.5%
3-1
3.3%
3-2
6.0%
XAVIER break %
46.5% vs this opp
SETON break %
37.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Macy HatkevichBlock+4.9%

    Samantha Shelton stuffed by Macy Hatkevich

    Set 4 · XAVIER 23-22 SETON · XAVIER 90% → 94%

  2. 02

    Kill by Charlotte Moriarty (set by Iyanna Battle)

    Set 4 · XAVIER 25-23 SETON · XAVIER 95% → 100%

  3. 03

    Kill by Charlotte Moriarty (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 4 · XAVIER 22-22 SETON · XAVIER 85% → 90%

  4. 04
    Daria SafianKill+4.4%

    Kill by Daria Safian (set by Gwen Adler)

    Set 2 · XAVIER 24-26 SETON · SETON 9% → 13%

  5. 05
    Ava TildenAttack error+4.4%

    Attack error by Ava Tilden

    Set 4 · XAVIER 19-21 SETON · SETON 12% → 17%

  6. 06

    Kill by Charlotte Moriarty (set by Macy Hatkevich)

    Set 4 · XAVIER 24-23 SETON · XAVIER 91% → 95%

  7. 07
    Ava TildenAttack error+3.8%

    Attack error by Ava Tilden

    Set 4 · XAVIER 19-20 SETON · SETON 8% → 12%

  8. 08

    Kill by Samantha Shelton (set by Rylee Nelson)

    Set 4 · XAVIER 20-22 SETON · SETON 14% → 18%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Xavieraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420433.48500041010.520.5
418549.26512514100020
411226.34600000031.512.5
410322.31801000010.511.5
46112.41710010233.59.5
4219.1116013301014
4000–132600003
4000–0111900001
4002.000300700000
4000–001100000
1012-.500000000000
1001.000000000000
Team totals6717156.3216681255238799
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418650.2400118100019
411327.29601020010.512.5
410217.47100030111.511.5
49432.156002400009
4205.4003700601013
4113.000201601012
4002.000201820000
4000–100810000
4000–6021020000
2000–000200000
1000–000100000
Team totals5116136.257482758832482

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Xavier vs Seton Hall

Season series · Xavier leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 XAVIER · SETON 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 5 XAVIERSETON 3

Set 2

24-26

Longest run 3 XAVIERSETON 4

Set 3

25-15

Longest run 4 XAVIERSETON 3

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 XAVIERSETON 3

Bars above the line = Seton Hall leads, below = Xavier leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Xavier

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%5/7
0%0/4
2
71%5/7
50%5/10
3
56%5/9
17%1/6
4
50%5/10
38%3/8
5
100%5/5
58%7/12
6
75%3/4
67%6/9
All
67%28/42
45%22/49

Seton Hall

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%5/9
33%2/6
2
71%5/7
17%1/6
3
83%5/6
38%3/8
4
45%5/11
44%4/9
5
36%4/11
38%3/8
6
60%3/5
20%1/5
All
55%27/49
33%14/42

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#XAVIER-SETONSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1SETONSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+1.0
21-1SETONXAVIER×5KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
32-1XAVIERXAVIER×5AceXavier+0.8
43-1XAVIERXAVIER×5KillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
54-1XAVIERXAVIER×5KillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
65-1XAVIERXAVIER×5KillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.5
75-2XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+0.4
85-3SETONSETONAttack errCharlotte Moriarty+0.6
96-3SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.5
106-4XAVIERSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.5
116-5SETONSETONAceSeton Hallaced Charlotte Moriarty+0.8
127-5SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
138-5XAVIERXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
148-6XAVIERSETON×3Serve errXavier+0.5
158-7SETONSETON×3Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+0.9
168-8SETONSETON×3Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+1.1
179-8SETONXAVIER×5Serve errSeton Hall+0.7
1810-8XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errSamantha Shelton+1.0
1911-8XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errAlexis Opland+0.8
2012-8XAVIERXAVIER×5KillMacy Hatkevichset Kasey Quenichet+0.6
2113-8XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errAlondra Villanueva+0.5
2213-9XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.3
2314-9SETONXAVIERAttack errDaria Safianset Rylee Nelson+0.3
2414-10XAVIERSETONBlockedIyanna Battleblk Alexis Opland+0.3
2514-11SETONSETONAttack errCatherine Flaharty+0.6
2615-11SETONXAVIERServe errSeton Hall+0.5
2715-12XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+0.4
2815-13SETONSETONBlockedAva Tildenblk Mia Clyburn, Alondra Villanueva+0.9
2916-13SETONXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
3016-14XAVIERSETONAttack errCatherine Flahartyset Ava Tilden+0.6
3117-14SETONXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
3218-14XAVIERXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Gwen Adler+0.7
3318-15XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.4
3418-16SETONSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.9
3519-16SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
3619-17XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.7
3720-17SETONXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
3820-18XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.7
3921-18SETONXAVIER×5KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
4022-18XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errSamantha Shelton+0.8
4123-18XAVIERXAVIER×5KillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.4
4224-18XAVIERXAVIER×5Attack errSamantha Shelton+0.1
4325-18XAVIERXAVIER×5BlockedSamantha Sheltonblk Iyanna Battle·
Set 2
10-1XAVIERSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.5
21-1SETONXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich+0.4
31-2XAVIERSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.5
42-2SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.4
52-3XAVIERSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.5
63-3SETONXAVIERServe errSeton Hall+0.4
74-3XAVIERXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
84-4XAVIERSETON×3KillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.5
94-5SETONSETON×3KillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.7
104-6SETONSETON×3Attack errCharlotte Moriarty+0.9
115-6SETONXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+0.5
125-7XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.7
136-7SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
147-7XAVIERXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
157-8XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+0.6
168-8SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.5
179-8XAVIERXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
189-9XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+0.6
199-10SETONSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Alexis Opland+0.9
2010-10SETONXAVIERServe errSeton Hall+0.6
2111-10XAVIER
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.8
2211-11XAVIERSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.6
2312-11SETONXAVIERServe errSeton Hall+0.6
2412-12XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.6
2513-12SETONXAVIER×3KillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
2614-12XAVIERXAVIER×3AceXavieraced Rylee Wooldridge+0.8
2715-12XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
2815-13XAVIERSETONAttack errMacy Hatkevichset Kelsey Niesen+0.4
2916-13SETONXAVIERServe errSeton Hall+0.4
3016-14XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.4
3117-14SETONXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich+0.5
3217-15XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+0.4
3317-16SETONSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.9
3418-16SETONXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
3518-17XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Rylee Nelson+0.7
3619-17SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.7
3719-18XAVIERSETONKillDaria Safianset Rylee Nelson+0.7
3820-18SETONXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.8
3920-19XAVIERSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.7
4021-19SETONXAVIERKillMacy Hatkevichset Charlotte Moriarty+0.8
4121-20XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.8
4221-21SETONSETONAttack errGabrielle Semona+1.6
4322-21SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.3
4423-21XAVIERXAVIERAceXavieraced Kennedy Cummins+1.5
4523-22XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Shelton+0.8
4624-22SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.2
4724-23XAVIERSETON×4KillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.7
4824-24SETONSETON×4AceSeton Hallaced Ava Tilden+2.6
4924-25SETONSETON×4KillDaria Safianset Alexis Opland+3.4
5024-26SETONSETON×4KillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+4.4
Set 3
11-0SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+1.1
21-1XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Rylee Nelson+1.3
32-1SETONXAVIER×3Serve errSeton Hall+1.2
43-1XAVIERXAVIER×3KillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
54-1XAVIERXAVIER×3Attack errMia Clyburn+1.3
64-2XAVIERSETONBlockedGabrielle Semonablk Gwen Adler+0.9
75-2SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
85-3XAVIERSETONKillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.9
96-3SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
106-4XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+1.0
117-4SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
127-5XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Shelton+1.0
138-5SETONXAVIER×4KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
149-5XAVIERXAVIER×4AceXavieraced Rylee Nelson+1.1
1510-5XAVIERXAVIER×4AceXavieraced Rylee Nelson+0.9
1611-5XAVIERXAVIER×4BlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Catherine Flaharty, Iyanna Battle+0.6
1711-6XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Rylee Nelson+0.4
1812-6SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.4
1912-7XAVIERSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+0.4
2012-8SETON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.8
2113-8SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
2213-9XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+0.6
2314-9SETONXAVIER×4KillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+0.6
2415-9XAVIERXAVIER×4AceXavier+0.7
2516-9XAVIERXAVIER×4KillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+0.4
2617-9XAVIERXAVIER×4AceXavieraced Rylee Wooldridge+0.2
2717-10XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+0.1
2818-10SETONXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+0.1
2918-11XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+0.1
3019-11SETONXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.1
3120-11XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedDaria Safianblk Iyanna Battle, Catherine Flaharty+0.1
3221-11XAVIERXAVIER×3AceXavieraced Samantha Shelton·
3321-12XAVIERSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler·
3422-12SETONXAVIER×3KillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich·
3523-12XAVIERXAVIER×3KillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich·
3624-12XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedDaria Safianblk Iyanna Battle, Ava Tilden·
3724-13XAVIERSETON×3Serve errXavier·
3824-14SETONSETON×3KillAva Tilden·
3924-15SETONSETON×3KillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler·
4025-15SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich·
Set 4
10-1XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+1.0
21-1SETONXAVIERAttack errSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+0.9
32-1XAVIERXAVIERBlockedAlondra Villanuevablk Gabrielle Semona, Catherine Flaharty+1.2
42-2XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanueva+0.9
52-3SETONSETONAttack errGabrielle Semona+1.5
63-3SETONXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
73-4XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+1.2
84-4SETONXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
95-4XAVIERXAVIERAttack errMia Clyburn+1.4
105-5XAVIERSETONKillGwen Adlerset Rylee Wooldridge+1.0
115-6SETONSETONKillGwen Adlerset Kennedy Cummins+1.7
126-6SETONXAVIERKillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+1.1
137-6XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.5
147-7XAVIERSETONAttack errCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.1
158-7SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
169-7XAVIERXAVIERBlockedDaria Safianblk Iyanna Battle+1.3
179-8XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+1.0
1810-8SETONXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+0.9
1910-9XAVIERSETONKillAlexis Opland+1.0
2011-9SETONXAVIERKillCatherine Flahartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
2111-10XAVIERSETONKillDaria Safianset Gwen Adler+1.1
2212-10SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+1.0
2312-11XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+1.1
2413-11SETONXAVIERKillGabrielle Semona+1.1
2514-11XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Jamison Gordon+1.3
2614-12XAVIERSETON×3KillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+0.9
2714-13SETONSETON×3Attack errQuinci Thomas+1.6
2814-14SETONSETON×3KillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+2.1
2915-14SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Jamison Gordon+1.5
3015-15XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Rylee Nelson+1.6
3116-15SETONXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Jamison Gordon+1.6
3216-16XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+1.7
3317-16SETONXAVIERKillIyanna Battleset Macy Hatkevich+1.7
3417-17XAVIERSETONServe errXavier+1.9
3518-17SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+1.8
3618-18XAVIERSETONKillAlondra Villanuevaset Gwen Adler+2.0
3719-18SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+2.0
3819-19XAVIERSETON×3KillMia Clyburnset Gwen Adler+2.2
3919-20SETONSETON×3Attack errAva Tilden+3.8
4019-21SETONSETON×3Attack errAva Tilden+4.4
4120-21SETONXAVIERKillAva Tildenset Macy Hatkevich+2.4
4220-22XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Rylee Nelson+3.6
4321-22SETONXAVIER×3KillGabrielle Semonaset Macy Hatkevich+2.6
4422-22XAVIERXAVIER×3KillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+4.7
4523-22XAVIERXAVIER×3BlockedSamantha Sheltonblk Macy Hatkevich+4.9
4623-23XAVIERSETONKillSamantha Sheltonset Gwen Adler+3.4
4724-23SETONXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Macy Hatkevich+4.2
4825-23XAVIERXAVIERKillCharlotte Moriartyset Iyanna Battle+4.8

Score shown after each rally, Xavier first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).