Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

Dayton def. Marquette 3–1

Dayton beat visiting Marquette 3-1 (25-23, 22-25, 25-21, 25-21) on Fri, Aug 28, 2026. Dayton's Sidney Sprada led with 18 kills, and Lily Barry added 13 digs.

Data through · final Aug 28

Set1234Sets
MARQ232521211
DAYTON252225253

Win probability

Dayton above 50 · Marquette below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.8% DAYTONrally 187 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.8% to Dayton — set 1, MARQ 22-24 DAYTON. Kill by Abigail Cresse (set by Natalie Harrington). DAYTON win probability 43% → 50%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MARQ 66.4%33.6% DAYTON

Marquette wins

3-0
20.9%
3-1
25.5%
3-2
20.0%

Dayton wins

3-0
6.7%
3-1
12.0%
3-2
14.9%
MARQ break %
43.4% vs this opp
DAYTON break %
40.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Abigail Cresse (set by Natalie Harrington)

    Set 1 · MARQ 22-24 DAYTON · DAYTON 43% → 50%

  2. 02
    DaytonAce+7.7%

    Dayton ace

    Set 1 · MARQ 22-23 DAYTON · DAYTON 35% → 43%

  3. 03
    Kamryn HuntKill+7.6%

    Kill by Kamryn Hunt (set by Natalie Harrington)

    Set 1 · MARQ 23-25 DAYTON · DAYTON 47% → 55%

  4. 04

    Caydence Doolan stuffed by Addi Gallentine & Gabriela Machin Borges

    Set 4 · MARQ 16-18 DAYTON · DAYTON 74% → 81%

  5. 05
    Caydence DoolanAttack error+6.7%

    Attack error by Caydence Doolan

    Set 3 · MARQ 18-20 DAYTON · DAYTON 45% → 52%

  6. 06
    DaytonAce+6.7%

    Dayton ace on Caydence Doolan

    Set 4 · MARQ 16-17 DAYTON · DAYTON 67% → 74%

  7. 07

    Kill by Abigail Cresse

    Set 3 · MARQ 20-23 DAYTON · DAYTON 55% → 61%

  8. 08
    DaytonAce+6.6%

    Dayton ace on Carson Tyler

    Set 3 · MARQ 18-19 DAYTON · DAYTON 39% → 45%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415533.3031348102119
49327.22210030010.59.5
46516.063010300429
4519.444281090031.57.5
2124-.25000000010.51.5
1000–000020000
44418.00000031010.54.5
4002.0003301100003
4014-.250201500000
3304.750000000214
3000–111300001
2013-.333000000000
Team totals4322120.1753696456014790
Daytonhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
418438.36804380111.523.5
415630.30010040031.516.5
49324.2500126300010
46111.455003100217
4228.00000000052.54.5
41011.0002902400001
410423.26100010031.511.5
4002.0002012600001
4000–2021320000
4000–201000000
2000–102100000
Team totals6120137.29955617449114897

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MARQ · DAYTON 7

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 MARQDAYTON 4

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 3 MARQDAYTON 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 MARQDAYTON 4

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 3 MARQDAYTON 7

Bars above the line = Dayton leads, below = Marquette leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Marquette

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
30%3/10
2
41%7/17
43%6/14
3
75%6/8
42%5/12
4
40%6/15
33%3/9
5
60%6/10
25%2/8
6
50%6/12
54%7/13
All
53%39/74
39%26/66

Dayton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
42%5/12
2
62%8/13
43%6/14
3
55%6/11
50%6/12
4
86%6/7
33%3/9
5
55%6/11
63%10/16
6
50%6/12
45%5/11
All
61%40/66
47%35/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

187 rallies

#MARQ-DAYTONSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0DAYTONMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.6
22-0MARQMARQAttack errCharlotte Vinson+2.2
32-1MARQDAYTON×4KillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+1.5
42-2DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Allie Beers+2.3
52-3DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDayton+2.5
62-4DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Allie Beers+2.6
73-4DAYTONMARQKillCarson Tylerset Avery Helms+1.7
83-5MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+1.9
94-5DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+1.8
104-6MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+2.0
115-6DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+1.8
126-6MARQMARQAceMarquetteaced Kamryn Hunt+2.6
136-7MARQDAYTON×3KillAddi Gallentineset Rylee Sloss+2.0
146-8DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedJulia Stanevblk Sidney Sprada+2.9
156-9DAYTONDAYTON×3BlockedAvery Helmsblk Addi Gallentine, Gabriela Machin Borges+2.8
167-9DAYTONMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.8
178-9MARQMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Emi Juric+2.8
189-9MARQMARQ×3Attack errSidney Sprada+2.9
199-10MARQDAYTONAttack errTani Juric+2.2
2010-10DAYTONMARQKillJulia Stanevset Luanna Markus+2.1
2111-10MARQMARQKillCarson Tyler+3.0
2211-11MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Lily Barry+2.2
2312-11DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+2.2
2413-11MARQMARQAceMarquetteaced Kamryn Hunt+2.9
2513-12MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+2.0
2614-12DAYTONMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+2.2
2714-13MARQDAYTONServe errMarquette+2.1
2814-14DAYTONDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+3.4
2915-14DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+2.5
3015-15MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+2.6
3116-15DAYTONMARQAttack errKamryn Hunt+2.6
3216-16MARQDAYTON×3KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.7
3316-17DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errJulia Stanev+4.1
3416-18DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errCarson Tyler+4.3
3517-18DAYTONMARQKillKeira Schmidtset Luanna Markus+2.7
3618-18MARQMARQKillTani Juricset Emi Juric+4.3
3718-19MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+3.5
3819-19DAYTONMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+3.3
3920-19MARQMARQBlockedGabriela Machin Borgesblk Julia Stanev, Carson Tyler+4.9
4020-20MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+3.5
4120-21DAYTONDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+5.7
4221-21DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+3.9
4322-21MARQMARQAttack errCharlotte Vinson+6.2
4422-22MARQDAYTON×3Attack errTani Juric+4.4
4522-23DAYTONDAYTON×3AceDayton+7.7
4622-24DAYTONDAYTON×3KillAbigail Cresseset Natalie Harrington+7.8
4723-24DAYTONMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+3.1
4823-25MARQDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+7.6
Set 2
10-1MARQDAYTONBlockedTani Juricblk Sidney Sprada, Abigail Cresse+2.1
20-2DAYTONDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+3.0
31-2DAYTONMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.0
42-2MARQMARQAceMarquetteaced Lily Barry+2.9
52-3MARQDAYTON×3KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+2.2
62-4DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errMolly Welge+3.1
72-5DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errCarson Tyler+3.1
83-5DAYTONMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.0
93-6MARQDAYTONKillNatalie Harringtonset Natalie Harrington+2.3
104-6DAYTONMARQ×3KillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+2.1
115-6MARQMARQ×3BlockedKamryn Huntblk Molly Welge, Luanna Markus+3.1
126-6MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+3.2
136-7DAYTON
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.4
147-7DAYTONMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.3
157-8MARQDAYTONBlockedCaydence Doolanblk Gabriela Machin Borges, Addi Gallentine+2.5
168-8DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+2.4
178-9MARQDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.6
188-10DAYTONDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Charlotte Vinson+3.7
199-10DAYTONMARQAttack errCharlotte Vinson+2.4
2010-10MARQMARQAttack errSidney Sprada+3.6
2110-11MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+2.8
2211-11DAYTONMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+2.6
2311-12MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+2.9
2412-12DAYTONMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.7
2513-12MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Annika Kowalski+3.9
2614-12MARQMARQ×3Attack errCharlotte Vinson+3.7
2714-13MARQDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+2.5
2815-13DAYTONMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+2.7
2915-14MARQDAYTONServe errMarquette+2.6
3016-14DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+2.9
3116-15MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+2.7
3217-15DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+3.0
3318-15MARQMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+3.7
3418-16MARQDAYTONKillAbigail Cresseset Rylee Sloss+2.2
3519-16DAYTONMARQ×3Attack errCharlotte Vinson+2.7
3620-16MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.9
3721-16MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.9
3821-17MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+0.8
3922-17DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+1.3
4022-18MARQDAYTON×3KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+0.6
4122-19DAYTONDAYTON×3Bad setTani Juric+1.6
4222-20DAYTONDAYTON×3KillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+2.9
4323-20DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+3.2
4423-21MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+1.9
4524-21DAYTONMARQKillMolly Welge+3.3
4624-22MARQDAYTONBad setCaydence Doolan+1.3
4725-22DAYTONMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+2.9
Set 3
10-1DAYTONDAYTON×3KillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+3.3
20-2DAYTONDAYTON×3KillAbigail Cresseset Natalie Harrington+3.4
30-3DAYTONDAYTON×3Attack errCarson Tyler+3.4
41-3DAYTONMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+2.2
51-4MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Lily Barry+2.5
62-4DAYTONMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+2.3
72-5MARQDAYTONServe errMarquette+2.6
82-6DAYTONDAYTONBlockedCarson Tylerblk Charlotte Vinson, Addi Gallentine+3.5
93-6DAYTONMARQBlockedAddi Gallentineblk Molly Welge, Luanna Markus+2.2
103-7MARQDAYTONServe errMarquette+2.6
114-7DAYTONMARQKillLuanna Markusset Emi Juric+2.2
124-8MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Rylee Sloss+2.6
135-8DAYTONMARQAttack errKamryn Hunt+2.2
146-8MARQMARQAttack errAddi Gallentine+3.5
156-9MARQDAYTON×4KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.9
166-10DAYTONDAYTON×4KillAbigail Cresse+3.7
176-11DAYTONDAYTON×4KillSidney Spradaset Morgan Asleson+3.4
186-12DAYTONDAYTON×4KillSidney Spradaset Morgan Asleson+2.9
197-12DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+1.6
208-12MARQMARQAttack errGabriela Machin Borges+2.7
218-13MARQDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.5
229-13DAYTONMARQKillKeira Schmidtset Luanna Markus+1.9
2310-13MARQMARQKillTani Juricset Natalie Harrington+3.3
2410-14MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+3.0
2510-15DAYTONDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+3.5
2611-15DAYTONMARQ×4Serve errDayton+1.9
2712-15MARQMARQ×4KillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+3.3
2813-15MARQMARQ×4AceMarquetteaced Lily Barry+4.0
2914-15MARQMARQ×4KillLuanna Markusset Charlotte Vinson+4.6
3014-16MARQDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+3.8
3115-16DAYTONMARQ×4KillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+3.4
3216-16MARQMARQ×4AceMarquette+5.3
3317-16MARQMARQ×4AceMarquette+5.4
3418-16MARQMARQ×4AceMarquette+5.1
3518-17MARQDAYTON×4BlockedEmma Parksblk Charlotte Vinson, Addi Gallentine+3.4
3618-18DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errMolly Welge+5.8
3718-19DAYTONDAYTON×4AceDaytonaced Carson Tyler+6.6
3818-20DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errCaydence Doolan+6.7
3919-20DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+4.1
4019-21MARQDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+5.3
4120-21DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+4.3
4220-22MARQDAYTON×3KillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+5.9
4320-23DAYTONDAYTON×3KillAbigail Cresse+6.6
4420-24DAYTONDAYTON×3KillAbigail Cresse+3.9
4521-24DAYTONMARQAttack errGabriela Machin Borges+0.8
4621-25MARQDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.0
Set 4
10-1MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+2.8
21-1DAYTONMARQKillCarson Tylerset Tani Juric+2.7
31-2MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+2.9
42-2DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+2.8
52-3MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+2.9
63-3DAYTONMARQKillLuanna Markusset Carson Tyler+2.8
73-4MARQDAYTONServe errMarquette+3.0
84-4DAYTONMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+2.9
95-4MARQMARQBlockedSidney Spradablk Keira Schmidt, Luanna Markus+4.0
105-5MARQDAYTONAttack errLuanna Markus+3.0
116-5DAYTONMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+2.9
127-5MARQMARQ×3BlockedGabriela Machin Borgesblk Caydence Doolan, Keira Schmidt+3.9
138-5MARQMARQ×3Attack errSidney Sprada+3.6
148-6MARQDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+2.5
158-7DAYTONDAYTONBlockedCaydence Doolanblk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson+3.9
169-7DAYTONMARQKillKeira Schmidtset Luanna Markus+3.0
179-8MARQDAYTONKillSidney Spradaset Natalie Harrington+2.9
1810-8DAYTONMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+3.1
1911-8MARQMARQ×3BlockedAbigail Cresseblk Molly Welge, Tani Juric+3.9
2012-8MARQMARQ×3AceMarquette+3.4
2112-9MARQDAYTON×4KillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+2.1
2212-10DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errMolly Welge+3.7
2312-11DAYTONDAYTON×4Attack errCarson Tyler+4.4
2412-12DAYTONDAYTON×4KillCharlotte Vinsonset Sydney Barrett+5.0
2513-12DAYTONMARQ×3Serve errDayton+3.7
2614-12MARQMARQ×3KillLuanna Markusset Avery Helms+5.0
2715-12MARQMARQ×3BlockedCharlotte Vinsonblk Molly Welge, Carson Tyler+4.4
2815-13MARQDAYTONAttack errMolly Welge+2.8
2916-13DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+3.3
3016-14MARQDAYTON×7Serve errMarquette+2.9
3116-15DAYTONDAYTON×7Attack errMolly Welge+5.0
3216-16DAYTONDAYTON×7KillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+6.0
3316-17DAYTONDAYTON×7AceDaytonaced Caydence Doolan+6.7
3416-18DAYTONDAYTON×7BlockedCaydence Doolanblk Addi Gallentine, Gabriela Machin Borges+6.9
3516-19DAYTONDAYTON×7KillKamryn Huntset Rylee Sloss+6.5
3616-20DAYTONDAYTON×7KillSidney Spradaset Rylee Sloss+5.4
3717-20DAYTONMARQKillLuanna Markus+2.6
3817-21MARQDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+3.9
3918-21DAYTONMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.4
4019-21MARQMARQAceMarquetteaced Kamryn Hunt+5.1
4119-22MARQDAYTONKillGabriela Machin Borgesset Rylee Sloss+5.4
4220-22DAYTONMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+3.4
4320-23MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+5.7
4421-23DAYTONMARQServe errDayton+3.1
4521-24MARQDAYTONKillCharlotte Vinsonset Natalie Harrington+5.8
4621-25DAYTONDAYTONKillKamryn Huntset Natalie Harrington+3.2

Score shown after each rally, Marquette first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).