FinalMon, Aug 31, 2026

AwayATLANTIC-10

0:3

HomeACC

Louisville def. Dayton 3–0

(25-14, 25-14, 25-11)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
DAYTON	14	14	11	0
LOUIS	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

LOUIS above 50 · DAYTON below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Dayton — set 1, DAYTON 2-0 LOUIS. Kalyssa Blackshear stuffed by Ava Liening. LOUIS win probability 99% → 99%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DAYTON 0.5%99.5% LOUIS

Dayton wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.3%

Louisville wins

3-0

79.6%

3-1

17.5%

3-2

2.4%

DAYTON break %: 32.4% vs this opp
LOUIS break %: 52.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kalyssa BlackshearAttack error+0.1%
Kalyssa Blackshear stuffed by Ava Liening
Set 1 · DAYTON 2-0 LOUIS · DAYTON 1% → 1%
02
LOUIS serverAce+0.1%
Louisville ace on Lily Barry
Set 1 · DAYTON 2-2 LOUIS · LOUIS 99% → 99%
03
Chloe ChicoineKill+0.1%
Kill by Chloe Chicoine (set by Payton Petersen)
Set 1 · DAYTON 2-3 LOUIS · LOUIS 99% → 100%
04
Ava LieningAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Ava Liening
Set 1 · DAYTON 2-1 LOUIS · LOUIS 99% → 99%
05
LOUIS serverService error+0.1%
Louisville service error
Set 1 · DAYTON 1-0 LOUIS · DAYTON 0% → 1%
06
Charlotte VinsonKill+0.1%
Kill by Charlotte Vinson (set by Lily Barry)
Set 2 · DAYTON 2-1 LOUIS · DAYTON 0% → 0%
07
Kamryn HuntAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Kamryn Hunt
Set 1 · DAYTON 2-4 LOUIS · LOUIS 100% → 100%
08
Charlotte VinsonAttack error+0.0%
Attack error by Charlotte Vinson
Set 1 · DAYTON 2-5 LOUIS · LOUIS 100% → 100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Daytonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
19Charlotte VinsonOH	3	10	6	21	.190	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10
2Kamryn HuntOH	3	2	4	13	-.154	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	3
22Sidney SpradaOH	3	2	4	22	-.091	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	2
20Ava LieningMB	3	1	2	9	-.111	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	2
6Addi GallentineMB	3	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
9Natalie HarringtonS	3	0	0	0	–	13	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
16Gabriela Machin BorgesOH	3	6	4	16	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
12Rylee SlossS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	10	1	1	2	0	0	0	1
13Sydney BarrettOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31Lily BarryL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	8	1	0	0	0
10Emily HardenS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
8Morgan AslesonL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
1Kaleigh MerittOH	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		24	21	89	.034	24	1	6	25	5	2	2	39

Louisvillehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Chloe MeesterOH	3	14	0	18	.778	0	1	2	4	0	0	1	0.5	15.5
7Chloe ChicoineOH	3	10	0	18	.556	2	0	1	11	0	0	1	0.5	10.5
24Kalyssa BlackshearOPP	3	8	2	14	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
44Brooke BultemaMB	3	6	0	9	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
8Nayelis CabelloS	3	1	0	5	.200	29	2	0	4	0	0	2	1	4
11Hannah ShermanMB	1	0	2	2	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
22Blair ThiebaudS	3	1	1	2	.000	7	1	2	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
21Payton PetersenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	7	1	0	0	0	1
3Kamden SchrandL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
6Hannah KennyS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
4Addison MakunMB	2	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	4	7
9Jordyn GrayOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Elsi KarjanlahtiL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Jessica DrappL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Molly UrbanL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	6	76	.487	42	5	8	38	1	2	12	8	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 DAYTON · LOUIS 7

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 DAYTONLOUIS 7

Set 2

14-25

Longest run 2 DAYTONLOUIS 5

Set 3

11-25

Longest run 1 DAYTONLOUIS 7

Bars above the line = Louisville leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Dayton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	38%6/16	0%0/4
2	46%6/13	40%4/10
3	67%6/9	0%0/6
4	42%5/12	25%2/8
5	29%5/17	0%0/5
6	43%3/7	29%2/7
All	42%31/74	20%8/40

Louisville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	71%12/17
2	86%6/7	50%6/12
3	86%6/7	25%2/8
4	83%5/6	44%4/9
5	83%5/6	74%14/19
6	80%4/5	56%5/9
All	80%32/40	58%43/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

114 rallies

Rally log

#	DAYTON-LOUIS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LOUIS	DAYTON	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.1
2	2-0	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Kalyssa Blackshear	blk Ava Liening	+0.1
3	2-1	DAYTON	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Ava Liening		+0.1
4	2-2	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Lily Barry	+0.1
5	2-3	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Payton Petersen	+0.1
6	2-4	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt		+0.1
7	2-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson		+0.0
8	2-6	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
9	2-7	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson		+0.0
10	3-7	LOUIS	DAYTON	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
11	3-8	DAYTON	LOUIS	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt		+0.0
12	3-9	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt	blk Nayelis Cabello, Brooke Bultema	+0.0
13	4-9	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
14	4-10	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
15	4-11	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
16	5-11	LOUIS	DAYTON	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
17	5-12	DAYTON	LOUIS×7	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
18	5-13	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
19	5-14	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Gabriela Machin Borges		+0.0
20	5-15	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Sidney Sprada	blk Hannah Sherman, Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
21	5-16	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Kill	Nayelis Cabello	set Hannah Kenny	+0.0
22	5-17	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Kamryn Hunt	+0.0
23	5-18	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Rylee Sloss		+0.0
24	6-18	LOUIS	DAYTON	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
25	7-18	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
26	7-19	DAYTON	LOUIS	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.0
27	7-20	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+0.0
28	8-20	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
29	8-21	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
30	8-22	LOUIS	LOUIS	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Kamryn Hunt	+0.0
31	9-22	LOUIS	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Hannah Sherman		+0.0
32	10-22	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
33	11-22	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Attack err	Hannah Sherman	blk Kamryn Hunt	+0.0
34	11-23	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
35	12-23	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
36	12-24	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
37	13-24	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
38	14-24	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
39	14-25	DAYTON	LOUIS	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	DAYTON	LOUIS	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.0
2	1-1	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
3	2-1	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Lily Barry	+0.1
4	2-2	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
5	2-3	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+0.0
6	3-3	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
7	3-4	DAYTON	LOUIS×3	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
8	3-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Hannah Kenny	+0.0
9	3-6	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
10	4-6	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
11	4-7	DAYTON	LOUIS×5	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
12	4-8	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Chloe Chicoine	+0.0
13	4-9	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
14	4-10	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
15	4-11	LOUIS	LOUIS×5	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Hannah Kenny	+0.0
16	5-11	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
17	5-12	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
18	5-13	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
19	6-13	LOUIS	DAYTON	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
20	6-14	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
21	6-15	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Gabriela Machin Borges	blk Chloe Chicoine, Addison Makun	+0.0
22	7-15	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
23	7-16	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
24	8-16	LOUIS	DAYTON	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
25	8-17	DAYTON	LOUIS	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt		+0.0
26	9-17	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Ava Liening	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
27	9-18	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
28	10-18	LOUIS	DAYTON	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
29	11-18	DAYTON	DAYTON	Ace	DAYTON server	aced Payton Petersen	+0.0
30	11-19	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
31	11-20	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
32	12-20	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
33	12-21	DAYTON	LOUIS×3	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
34	12-22	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
35	12-23	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Chloe Meester		+0.0
36	13-23	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
37	14-23	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Kalyssa Blackshear		+0.0
38	14-24	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
39	14-25	LOUIS	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
2	0-2	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Team	+0.0
3	0-3	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Ace	LOUIS server	aced Kamryn Hunt	+0.0
4	0-4	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson	blk Addison Makun, Kalyssa Blackshear	+0.0
5	0-5	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson	blk Addison Makun	+0.0
6	0-6	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson	blk Addison Makun, Chloe Meester	+0.0
7	0-7	LOUIS	LOUIS×7	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
8	1-7	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
9	1-8	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Addison Makun	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
10	2-8	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
11	2-9	DAYTON	LOUIS	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.0
12	3-9	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
13	3-10	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Nayelis Cabello	+0.0
14	3-11	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Gabriela Machin Borges		+0.0
15	4-11	LOUIS	DAYTON	Serve err	LOUIS server		+0.0
16	4-12	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
17	5-12	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
18	5-13	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Blair Thiebaud	set Chloe Chicoine	+0.0
19	5-14	LOUIS	LOUIS	Attack err	Ava Liening	blk Addison Makun, Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
20	6-14	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
21	6-15	DAYTON	LOUIS×3	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
22	6-16	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson	blk Addison Makun	+0.0
23	6-17	LOUIS	LOUIS×3	Kill	Kalyssa Blackshear	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
24	7-17	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
25	7-18	DAYTON	LOUIS	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.0
26	8-18	LOUIS	DAYTON	Attack err	Addison Makun		+0.0
27	8-19	DAYTON	LOUIS	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.0
28	9-19	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Kaleigh Meritt	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
29	9-20	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
30	10-20	LOUIS	DAYTON	Attack err	Blair Thiebaud		+0.0
31	10-21	DAYTON	LOUIS×4	Kill	Brooke Bultema	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
32	10-22	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Kill	Chloe Meester	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0
33	10-23	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Gabriela Machin Borges		+0.0
34	10-24	LOUIS	LOUIS×4	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+0.0
35	11-24	LOUIS	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Rylee Sloss	+0.0
36	11-25	DAYTON	LOUIS	Kill	Chloe Chicoine	set Blair Thiebaud	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.