FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayATLANTIC-10

0:3

HomeMAC

Ball St. def. Dayton 3–0

(25-19, 25-23, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
DAYTON	19	23	23	0
BALLST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BALLST above 50 · DAYTON below

Biggest swing: 7.4% to Ball St. — set 2, DAYTON 23-25 BALLST. Ball St. ace on Kamryn Hunt. BALLST win probability 85% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DAYTON 34.4%65.6% BALLST

Dayton wins

3-0

7.0%

3-1

12.3%

3-2

15.1%

Ball St. wins

3-0

20.4%

3-1

25.1%

3-2

20.1%

DAYTON break %: 39.9% vs this opp
BALLST break %: 42.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
BALLST serverAce+7.4%
Ball St. ace on Kamryn Hunt
Set 2 · DAYTON 23-25 BALLST · BALLST 85% → 93%
02
Ava SmithKill+5.6%
Kill by Ava Smith (set by Lindsey Green)
Set 2 · DAYTON 23-24 BALLST · BALLST 80% → 85%
03
Camryn WiseKill+5.4%
Kill by Camryn Wise (set by Lindsey Green)
Set 2 · DAYTON 21-22 BALLST · BALLST 78% → 83%
04
Sidney SpradaKill+4.5%
Kill by Sidney Sprada (set by Kamryn Hunt)
Set 2 · DAYTON 20-19 BALLST · DAYTON 20% → 25%
05
Tiffany SnookKill+4.5%
Kill by Tiffany Snook (set by Lindsey Green)
Set 2 · DAYTON 22-23 BALLST · BALLST 80% → 84%
06
Tiffany SnookAttack error+4.3%
Attack error by Tiffany Snook
Set 2 · DAYTON 23-23 BALLST · DAYTON 16% → 20%
07
Ava SmithKill+3.9%
Kill by Ava Smith (set by Reese Axness)
Set 2 · DAYTON 18-19 BALLST · BALLST 78% → 82%
08
Audrey GeerKill+3.7%
Kill by Audrey Geer (set by Gwen Crull)
Set 2 · DAYTON 18-18 BALLST · BALLST 75% → 78%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Daytonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Sidney SpradaOH	3	16	4	40	.300	1	0	0	9	0	0	2	1	17
2Kamryn HuntOH	3	10	4	29	.207	1	1	0	5	3	0	0	0	11
19Charlotte VinsonOH	3	8	5	27	.111	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
3Abigail CresseMB	3	3	1	8	.250	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	2	5
6Addi GallentineMB	3	4	0	6	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
9Natalie HarringtonS	3	0	2	3	-.667	20	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	1
16Gabriela Machin BorgesOH	3	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	5
13Sydney BarrettOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
12Rylee SlossS	3	0	0	1	.000	17	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
31Lily BarryL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	16	0	0	0	0	0
8Morgan AslesonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1Kaleigh MerittOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	17	124	.226	43	2	6	48	4	1	10	6	65

Ball St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Audrey GeerOH	3	12	4	27	.296	0	1	0	10	0	0	0	0	13
14Ava SmithOH	3	9	5	27	.148	1	0	1	9	0	1	0	1	10
11Tiffany SnookMB	3	8	1	19	.368	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
17Camryn WiseMB	3	6	1	9	.556	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	1	7
13Gwen CrullMB	3	5	1	11	.364	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
8Lindsey GreenS	3	1	0	2	.500	26	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	1
21Madison BuckleyOPP	3	6	1	14	.357	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
2Reese AxnessS	3	0	0	2	.000	16	3	1	7	0	0	0	0	3
12Sophie LedbetterDS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	13	1	0	0	0	0
3Elizabeth TabelingDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	13	112	.304	47	4	4	51	2	1	4	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 DAYTON · BALLST 8

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 DAYTONBALLST 8

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 4 DAYTONBALLST 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 DAYTONBALLST 3

Bars above the line = Ball St. leads, below = Dayton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Dayton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	30%3/10
2	57%8/14	25%3/12
3	78%7/9	27%3/11
4	64%7/11	42%5/12
5	67%6/9	46%6/13
6	40%6/15	25%2/8
All	58%43/74	33%22/66

Ball St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	33%4/12
2	67%8/12	43%6/14
3	89%8/9	33%4/12
4	50%7/14	36%4/11
5	60%6/10	25%2/8
6	60%6/10	65%11/17
All	67%44/66	42%31/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	DAYTON-BALLST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson		+2.3
2	1-1	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Abigail Cresse	set Natalie Harrington	+1.6
3	1-2	DAYTON	BALLST	Serve err	DAYTON server		+1.6
4	2-2	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Natalie Harrington	+1.7
5	2-3	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+1.7
6	3-3	BALLST	DAYTON	Serve err	BALLST server		+1.7
7	3-4	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+1.7
8	4-4	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Rylee Sloss	+1.8
9	4-5	DAYTON	BALLST	Bad set	Rylee Sloss		+1.8
10	5-5	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Rylee Sloss	+1.8
11	5-6	DAYTON	BALLST×8	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt		+1.8
12	5-7	BALLST	BALLST×8	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson	blk Madison Buckley, Camryn Wise	+2.5
13	5-8	BALLST	BALLST×8	Attack err	Natalie Harrington		+2.3
14	5-9	BALLST	BALLST×8	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+2.0
15	5-10	BALLST	BALLST×8	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson		+1.7
16	5-11	BALLST	BALLST×8	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+1.4
17	5-12	BALLST	BALLST×8	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+1.0
18	5-13	BALLST	BALLST×8	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.7
19	6-13	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Abigail Cresse	set Natalie Harrington	+0.4
20	6-14	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Reese Axness	+0.5
21	7-14	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+0.3
22	7-15	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.5
23	7-16	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt	blk Camryn Wise, Tiffany Snook	+0.4
24	8-16	BALLST	DAYTON×3	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.2
25	9-16	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Rylee Sloss	+0.4
26	10-16	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Lily Barry	+0.6
27	10-17	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+0.6
28	11-17	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Rylee Sloss	+0.4
29	11-18	DAYTON	BALLST×3	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.6
30	11-19	BALLST	BALLST×3	Ace	BALLST server	aced Kamryn Hunt	+0.5
31	11-20	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Gabriela Machin Borges	blk Ava Smith	+0.2
32	12-20	BALLST	DAYTON	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.1
33	12-21	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.1
34	13-21	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Rylee Sloss	+0.1
35	13-22	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Sophie Ledbetter	+0.1
36	13-23	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.0
37	14-23	BALLST	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Madison Buckley	blk Abigail Cresse, Sidney Sprada	+0.0
38	15-23	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+0.0
39	16-23	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Kill	Abigail Cresse	set Lily Barry	+0.0
40	17-23	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Audrey Geer	blk Abigail Cresse, Charlotte Vinson	+0.1
41	17-24	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.2
42	18-24	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.0
43	19-24	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+0.1
44	19-25	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.2
Set 2
1	0-1	DAYTON	BALLST	Serve err	DAYTON server		+1.4
2	1-1	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Natalie Harrington	+1.4
3	1-2	DAYTON	BALLST×3	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+1.4
4	1-3	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt		+1.9
5	1-4	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Abigail Cresse		+1.8
6	2-4	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+1.2
7	2-5	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+1.3
8	3-5	BALLST	DAYTON×4	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+1.2
9	4-5	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Bad set	Reese Axness		+2.0
10	5-5	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Ava Smith	blk Gabriela Machin Borges	+2.2
11	6-5	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Lily Barry	+2.3
12	6-6	DAYTON	BALLST	Serve err	DAYTON server		+1.6
13	6-7	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+2.3
14	7-7	BALLST	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Audrey Geer		+1.6
15	8-7	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Ace	DAYTON server	aced Sophie Ledbetter	+2.5
16	9-7	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Attack err	Gwen Crull	blk Sidney Sprada, Addi Gallentine	+2.6
17	10-7	DAYTON	DAYTON×4	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Rylee Sloss	+2.5
18	10-8	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+1.6
19	11-8	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Rylee Sloss	+1.9
20	11-9	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.6
21	12-9	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Rylee Sloss	+1.9
22	12-10	DAYTON	BALLST×3	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.6
23	12-11	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Natalie Harrington		+2.6
24	12-12	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+2.8
25	13-12	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+2.1
26	14-12	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Natalie Harrington	+3.0
27	14-13	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+2.0
28	14-14	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson		+3.0
29	15-14	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+2.3
30	15-15	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Lindsey Green	+2.2
31	16-15	BALLST	DAYTON	Attack err	Ava Smith		+2.4
32	17-15	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Rylee Sloss	+3.5
33	17-16	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+2.2
34	18-16	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Addi Gallentine	+2.6
35	18-17	DAYTON	BALLST×3	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+2.3
36	18-18	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Gwen Crull	+3.7
37	18-19	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Ava Smith	set Reese Axness	+3.9
38	19-19	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Rylee Sloss	+2.8
39	20-19	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Kamryn Hunt	+4.5
40	20-20	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+3.0
41	21-20	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Rylee Sloss	+3.6
42	21-21	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+3.4
43	21-22	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+5.4
44	22-22	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Natalie Harrington	+3.7
45	22-23	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+4.5
46	23-23	BALLST	DAYTON	Attack err	Tiffany Snook		+4.3
47	23-24	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+5.6
48	23-25	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Kamryn Hunt	+7.4
Set 3
1	0-1	BALLST	BALLST×3	Attack err	Kamryn Hunt		+1.1
2	0-2	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Camryn Wise	set Lindsey Green	+1.1
3	0-3	BALLST	BALLST×3	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+1.0
4	1-3	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Natalie Harrington	+0.7
5	1-4	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
6	1-5	BALLST	BALLST	Attack err	Charlotte Vinson		+0.9
7	2-5	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Natalie Harrington	+0.6
8	3-5	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Kamryn Hunt	set Rylee Sloss	+1.0
9	3-6	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.7
10	4-6	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Rylee Sloss	+0.7
11	4-7	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.8
12	4-8	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Team	+1.0
13	5-8	BALLST	DAYTON	Attack err	Ava Smith		+0.6
14	6-8	DAYTON	DAYTON	Attack err	Ava Smith	blk Abigail Cresse, Gabriela Machin Borges	+1.0
15	6-9	DAYTON	BALLST	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.8
16	6-10	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+1.0
17	7-10	BALLST	DAYTON	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.6
18	7-11	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Reese Axness	+0.7
19	7-12	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Gwen Crull	+0.8
20	8-12	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Natalie Harrington	+0.5
21	8-13	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+0.6
22	9-13	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Natalie Harrington	+0.5
23	10-13	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Sidney Sprada	+0.9
24	10-14	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Lindsey Green	set Ava Smith	+0.8
25	10-15	BALLST	BALLST	Ace	BALLST server	aced Kamryn Hunt	+0.9
26	11-15	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.5
27	11-16	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+0.6
28	11-17	BALLST	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+0.6
29	12-17	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Addi Gallentine	set Rylee Sloss	+0.3
30	12-18	DAYTON	BALLST	Serve err	DAYTON server		+0.4
31	13-18	BALLST	DAYTON×3	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Rylee Sloss	+0.3
32	14-18	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Sidney Sprada		+0.6
33	15-18	DAYTON	DAYTON×3	Kill	Sidney Sprada	set Lily Barry	+0.9
34	15-19	DAYTON	BALLST	Attack err	Sidney Sprada		+0.8
35	16-19	BALLST	DAYTON	Attack err	Audrey Geer	blk Gabriela Machin Borges, Abigail Cresse	+0.6
36	17-19	DAYTON	DAYTON	Ace	DAYTON server	aced Elizabeth Tabeling	+1.3
37	17-20	DAYTON	BALLST	Serve err	DAYTON server		+1.2
38	18-20	BALLST	DAYTON	Serve err	BALLST server		+0.9
39	18-21	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Madison Buckley	set Reese Axness	+1.2
40	19-21	BALLST	DAYTON	Attack err	Camryn Wise		+0.9
41	19-22	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Audrey Geer	set Lindsey Green	+1.3
42	20-22	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Charlotte Vinson	set Natalie Harrington	+0.8
43	20-23	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Tiffany Snook	set Lindsey Green	+1.3
44	21-23	BALLST	DAYTON	Kill	Gabriela Machin Borges	set Rylee Sloss	+0.7
45	22-23	DAYTON	DAYTON	Kill	Sydney Barrett	set Rylee Sloss	+2.0
46	22-24	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Ava Smith	set Lindsey Green	+2.3
47	23-24	BALLST	DAYTON	Attack err	Ava Smith		+1.3
48	23-25	DAYTON	BALLST	Kill	Gwen Crull	set Reese Axness	+2.9

Score shown after each rally, Dayton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.