Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 5, 2026 · Neutral site

Western Caro. def. Jacksonville St. 3–1

Western Caro. beat Jacksonville St. 3-1 (25-20, 22-25, 25-21, 25-15) on Sat, Sep 5, 2026 at a neutral site. Western Caro.'s Sophia Marini led with 14 kills, and Elise Gurley added 18 digs.

Data through · final Sep 5

Set1234Sets
W CAR252225253
JAX ST202521151

Win probability

Jacksonville St. above 50 · Western Caro. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.4% JAX STrally 178 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.4% to Jacksonville St. — set 3, W CAR 21-20 JAX ST. Kill by Lauren Buchanan. JAX ST win probability 18% → 22%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

W CAR 81.5%18.5% JAX ST

Western Caro. wins

3-0
33.1%
3-1
30.6%
3-2
17.8%

Jacksonville St. wins

3-0
2.9%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
9.5%
W CAR break %
47.2% vs this opp
JAX ST break %
40.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Lauren Buchanan

    Set 3 · W CAR 21-20 JAX ST · JAX ST 18% → 22%

  2. 02

    Kill by Taylor Baggett

    Set 3 · W CAR 22-20 JAX ST · W CAR 78% → 82%

  3. 03
    Western Caro.Ace+4.1%

    Western Caro. ace on Delaney Moon

    Set 3 · W CAR 23-20 JAX ST · W CAR 82% → 86%

  4. 04
    Taya NordmannKill+4.0%

    Kill by Taya Nordmann (set by Sofia Varela)

    Set 3 · W CAR 12-13 JAX ST · JAX ST 26% → 30%

  5. 05
    Western Caro.Ace+3.9%

    Western Caro. ace on Reese Tiesing

    Set 3 · W CAR 15-14 JAX ST · W CAR 72% → 76%

  6. 06

    Kill by Lauren Buchanan (set by Addison Stone)

    Set 2 · W CAR 22-24 JAX ST · JAX ST 17% → 21%

  7. 07
    Ashlyn CobbKill+3.8%

    Kill by Ashlyn Cobb (set by Katie Boney)

    Set 3 · W CAR 17-15 JAX ST · W CAR 76% → 80%

  8. 08

    Kill by Lauren Buchanan

    Set 3 · W CAR 7-11 JAX ST · JAX ST 36% → 40%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410216.50000220153.513.5
410323.30411110102112
411321.3810002000011
4207.2864630301438
45116.250000000427
4000–031610003
414730.2330000002115
4000–4331810003
42210.00000010010.52.5
4000–020410002
4011-1.000001300000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000100000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
Team totals5419124.282511285042181197
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414435.28602291010.516.5
414526.3460001004216
411734.11810186010.511.5
48112.58311120031.510.5
4002.000000100422
4000–2402600000
41310-.20000030010.51.5
4001.0001610400001
41011.000100240001
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–204910000
4000–000000000
4000–000000000
4000–001000000
Team totals4920121.240454114512014781

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 W CAR · JAX ST 4

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 5 W CARJAX ST 3

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 W CARJAX ST 4

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 5 W CARJAX ST 3

Set 4

25-15

Longest run 8 W CARJAX ST 3

Bars above the line = Jacksonville St. leads, below = Western Caro. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Western Caro.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
44%7/16
2
61%11/18
50%11/22
3
77%10/13
33%5/15
4
47%7/15
27%3/11
5
88%7/8
68%15/22
6
78%7/9
30%3/10
All
65%53/82
46%44/96

Jacksonville St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%11/23
36%5/14
2
67%10/15
35%6/17
3
60%9/15
41%7/17
4
50%8/16
0%0/9
5
41%7/17
56%9/16
6
70%7/10
22%2/9
All
54%52/96
35%29/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

178 rallies

#W CAR-JAX STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.2
21-1W CARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Sofia Varela+1.3
32-1JAX STW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.2
43-1W CARW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Elise Gurley+1.4
53-2W CARJAX ST×3KillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+1.2
63-3JAX STJAX ST×3Attack errSophia Marini+1.7
73-4JAX STJAX ST×3KillClaire Evans+1.9
84-4JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.4
94-5W CARJAX STAttack errAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+1.5
105-5JAX STW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.4
115-6W CARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Addison Stone+1.6
126-6JAX STW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+1.5
137-6W CARW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.8
147-7W CARJAX STAttack errZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.5
158-7JAX STW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+1.4
168-8W CARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+1.5
179-8JAX STW CARKillKatie Boneyset Elise Gurley+1.5
189-9W CARJAX STBlockedZoe Zudansblk D'yanna Spicer, Azavia Thomas+1.6
199-10JAX STJAX STKillClaire Evansset Sofia Varela+2.3
2010-10JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.7
2110-11W CARJAX STServe errWestern Caro.+1.9
2210-12JAX STJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Sofia Varela+2.6
2311-12JAX STW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+1.8
2411-13W CARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Sofia Varela+2.1
2512-13JAX STW CAR×5KillAshlyn Cobb+1.9
2613-13W CARW CAR×5BlockedClaire Evansblk Tatum Sharp, Katie Boney+2.5
2714-13W CARW CAR×5AceWestern Caro.aced Lauren Buchanan+2.4
2815-13W CARW CAR×5BlockedIzzy Whittakerblk Ashlyn Cobb, Tatum Sharp+2.2
2916-13W CARW CAR×5AceWestern Caro.aced Lauren Buchanan+1.9
3016-14W CARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Taya Nordmann+1.3
3117-14JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.5
3217-15W CARJAX ST×3KillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+1.4
3317-16JAX STJAX ST×3AceJacksonville St.aced Ashlyn Cobb+2.3
3417-17JAX STJAX ST×3Attack errTatum Sharp+2.9
3518-17JAX STW CAR×3KillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.3
3619-17W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Lauren Buchanan+2.7
3720-17W CARW CAR×3Attack errLauren Buchanan+2.3
3820-18W CARJAX STBad setKatie Boney+1.4
3921-18JAX STW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+1.8
4022-18W CARW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.6
4122-19W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.8
4223-19JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.2
4323-20W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.6
4424-20JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.1
4525-20W CARW CARBlockedAzavia Thomasblk Tatum Sharp, Ashlyn Cobb+0.4
Set 2
10-1W CARJAX STAttack errAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+1.0
21-1JAX STW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.9
31-2W CARJAX ST×3KillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+1.0
41-3JAX STJAX ST×3BlockedSophia Mariniblk Claire Evans, D'yanna Spicer+1.4
51-4JAX STJAX ST×3BlockedAshlyn Cobbblk D'yanna Spicer, Azavia Thomas+1.5
62-4JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.0
72-5W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+1.2
83-5JAX STW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+1.1
93-6W CARJAX ST×4KillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+1.2
103-7JAX STJAX ST×4Attack errSamantha Kranzler+1.6
113-8JAX STJAX ST×4AceJacksonville St.aced Eda Yalçinkaya+1.6
123-9JAX STJAX ST×4KillLauren Buchananset Reese Tiesing+1.5
134-9JAX STW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+0.9
145-9W CARW CARAttack errClaire Evans+1.3
155-10W CARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+1.3
166-10JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.0
177-10W CARW CARAttack errLauren Buchanan+1.5
187-11W CARJAX STServe errWestern Caro.+1.4
198-11JAX STW CARAttack errAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+1.1
208-12W CARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+1.4
219-12JAX STW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+1.2
229-13W CARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Sofia Varela+1.5
2310-13JAX STW CAR×3KillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+1.2
2411-13W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Lauren Buchanan+1.7
2512-13W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Claire Evans+1.8
2612-14W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+1.6
2713-14JAX STW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.4
2813-15W CARJAX ST×3KillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+1.7
2913-16JAX STJAX ST×3AceJacksonville St.aced Elise Gurley+2.2
3013-17JAX STJAX ST×3BlockedAshlyn Cobbblk Izzy Whittaker, D'yanna Spicer+2.1
3114-17JAX STW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+1.2
3214-18W CARJAX STServe errWestern Caro.+1.7
3315-18JAX STW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+1.2
3415-19W CARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+1.7
3516-19JAX STW CAR×3KillKatie Boney+1.2
3617-19W CARW CAR×3KillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+2.0
3718-19W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Delaney Moon+2.4
3818-20W CARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+2.3
3918-21JAX STJAX STAttack errZoe Zudans+2.8
4019-21JAX STW CARAttack errLauren Buchananset Sofia Varela+1.5
4119-22W CARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+2.4
4220-22JAX STW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.5
4321-22W CARW CARKillAshlyn Cobb+2.8
4421-23W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+3.3
4522-23JAX STW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+2.3
4622-24W CARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+3.9
4722-25JAX STJAX STKillClaire Evansset Lauren Buchanan+3.2
Set 3
10-1JAX STJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Reese Tiesing+2.7
20-2JAX STJAX STBlockedTaylor Baggettblk Azavia Thomas, Taya Nordmann+2.9
31-2JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+2.1
41-3W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+2.4
51-4JAX STJAX STBlockedTaylor Baggettblk Azavia Thomas, Taya Nordmann+3.2
62-4JAX STW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+2.2
72-5W CARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+2.6
83-5JAX STW CARKillAiyana Harris+2.2
93-6W CARJAX STServe errWestern Caro.+2.6
104-6JAX STW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+2.3
114-7W CARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+2.7
124-8JAX STJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+3.4
135-8JAX STW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.3
146-8W CARW CARAttack errIzzy Whittaker+3.1
156-9W CARJAX STKillIzzy Whittakerset Addison Stone+2.9
167-9JAX STW CARKillTaylor Baggettset Katie Boney+2.5
177-10W CARJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Addison Stone+3.0
187-11JAX STJAX STKillLauren Buchanan+3.7
198-11JAX STW CAR×5BlockedLauren Buchananblk Aiyana Harris, Katie Boney+2.4
209-11W CARW CAR×5KillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+3.4
2110-11W CARW CAR×5KillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+3.5
2211-11W CARW CAR×5KillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+3.5
2312-11W CARW CAR×5BlockedLauren Buchananblk Taylor Baggett, Aiyana Harris+3.4
2412-12W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+2.8
2512-13JAX STJAX STKillTaya Nordmannset Sofia Varela+4.0
2613-13JAX STW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+2.9
2713-14W CARJAX STServe errWestern Caro.+3.3
2814-14JAX STW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Elise Gurley+3.1
2915-14W CARW CARAceWestern Caro.aced Reese Tiesing+3.9
3015-15W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+3.2
3116-15JAX STW CAR×4KillSophia Mariniset Ashlyn Cobb+3.2
3217-15W CARW CAR×4KillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+3.8
3318-15W CARW CAR×4BlockedJacksonville St.blk Tatum Sharp+3.2
3419-15W CARW CAR×4AceWestern Caro.aced Delaney Moon+2.5
3519-16W CARJAX STKillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+1.5
3620-16JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.9
3720-17W CARJAX STKillDelaney Moonset Addison Stone+1.4
3821-17JAX STW CARServe errJacksonville St.+1.9
3921-18W CARJAX ST×3Serve errWestern Caro.+1.4
4021-19JAX STJAX ST×3KillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+2.8
4121-20JAX STJAX ST×3KillLauren Buchanan+4.4
4222-20JAX STW CAR×3KillTaylor Baggett+4.3
4323-20W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Delaney Moon+4.1
4424-20W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Delaney Moon+2.1
4524-21W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+0.5
4625-21JAX STW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.2
Set 4
10-1W CARJAX ST×3KillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+1.7
20-2JAX STJAX ST×3Attack errSophia Marini+2.3
30-3JAX STJAX ST×3Attack errSophia Marini+2.4
41-3JAX STW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.7
51-4W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela+2.0
61-5JAX STJAX STAttack errSophia Marini+2.5
72-5JAX STW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+1.7
83-5W CARW CARAttack errTaya Nordmann+2.3
93-6W CARJAX STServe errWestern Caro.+2.1
104-6JAX STW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+1.8
114-7W CARJAX ST×3KillClaire Evansset Delaney Moon+2.1
124-8JAX STJAX ST×3AceJacksonville St.aced Halley Tang+2.7
134-9JAX STJAX ST×3KillClaire Evansset Addison Stone+2.6
145-9JAX STW CAR×8KillTatum Sharp+1.7
156-9W CARW CAR×8Attack errClaire Evans+2.4
167-9W CARW CAR×8KillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.5
178-9W CARW CAR×8AceWestern Caro.aced Lauren Buchanan+2.6
189-9W CARW CAR×8KillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.6
1910-9W CARW CAR×8BlockedIzzy Whittakerblk Tatum Sharp, Katie Boney+2.5
2011-9W CARW CAR×8KillZoe Zudans+2.3
2112-9W CARW CAR×8KillTatum Sharpset Claire Evans+2.0
2212-10W CARJAX STKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.5
2313-10JAX STW CARBlockedLauren Buchananblk Katie Boney+1.6
2413-11W CARJAX STKillLauren Buchananset Addison Stone+1.5
2514-11JAX STW CAR×4KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.6
2615-11W CARW CAR×4KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.7
2716-11W CARW CAR×4KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.3
2817-11W CARW CAR×4KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.9
2917-12W CARJAX STBlockedSophia Mariniblk Taya Nordmann, Lauren Buchanan+0.5
3018-12JAX STW CAR×5KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.7
3119-12W CARW CAR×5BlockedAzavia Thomasblk Aiyana Harris, Sophia Marini+0.6
3220-12W CARW CAR×5Attack errAzavia Thomas+0.3
3321-12W CARW CAR×5BlockedAzavia Thomasblk Sophia Marini, Aiyana Harris+0.1
3422-12W CARW CAR×5AceWestern Caro.aced Lauren Buchanan+0.1
3522-13W CARJAX STKillAzavia Thomasset Sofia Varela·
3622-14JAX STJAX STAttack errSophia Marini·
3723-14JAX STW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+0.1
3823-15W CARJAX STServe errWestern Caro.·
3924-15JAX STW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney·
4025-15W CARW CARBlockedClaire Evansblk Tatum Sharp, Katie Boney·

Score shown after each rally, Western Caro. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).