FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayASUN

3:0

HomeSOCON

North Florida def. Western Caro. 3–0

(27-25, 25-20, 25-18)

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
NO FLA	27	25	25	3
W CAR	25	20	18	0

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

W CAR above 50 · NO FLA below

Biggest swing: 9.0% to North Florida — set 1, NO FLA 27-25 W CAR. Kill by Leah McDonald (set by Sofia Dawson). W CAR win probability 32% → 23%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NO FLA 61.7%38.3% W CAR

North Florida wins

3-0

18.1%

3-1

23.6%

3-2

20.0%

Western Caro. wins

3-0

8.2%

3-1

13.9%

3-2

16.2%

NO FLA break %: 44.1% vs this opp
W CAR break %: 41.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Leah McDonaldKill+9.0%
Kill by Leah McDonald (set by Sofia Dawson)
Set 1 · NO FLA 27-25 W CAR · NO FLA 68% → 77%
02
Kaili DoctorKill+7.1%
Kill by Kaili Doctor (set by Sofia Dawson)
Set 1 · NO FLA 24-23 W CAR · NO FLA 61% → 68%
03
Sophia MariniKill+7.1%
Kill by Sophia Marini (set by Katie Boney)
Set 1 · NO FLA 24-24 W CAR · W CAR 32% → 39%
04
Kaili DoctorKill+7.1%
Kill by Kaili Doctor (set by Sofia Dawson)
Set 1 · NO FLA 25-24 W CAR · NO FLA 61% → 68%
05
NO FLA serverService error+7.1%
North Florida service error
Set 1 · NO FLA 25-25 W CAR · W CAR 32% → 39%
06
Sofia DawsonKill+7.1%
Kill by Sofia Dawson (set by Elise Gurley)
Set 1 · NO FLA 26-25 W CAR · NO FLA 61% → 68%
07
Zoe ZudansAttack error+6.3%
Zoe Zudans stuffed by Haleina Bowers & Kaili Doctor
Set 1 · NO FLA 22-21 W CAR · NO FLA 59% → 66%
08
Unlogged pointFeed gap+5.8%
Point Western Caro. (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 1 · NO FLA 20-21 W CAR · W CAR 39% → 45%

Official NCAA box

Box score

North Floridaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
3Dakota SpurrierOH	3	18	3	32	.469	1	2	0	7	0	0	1	0.5	20.5
13Kaili DoctorOH	3	16	2	41	.341	0	0	4	6	2	0	1	0.5	16.5
11Yarimar Francis GarayMB	3	3	2	9	.111	0	0	0	2	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
1Sofia DawsonS	3	4	1	6	.500	43	0	1	8	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
9Haleina BowersMB	3	1	1	8	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	3.5
18Julianna SantiagoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	0
8Brooklyn StringfellowL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	0	1
19Emma PohlmannL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	18	0	0	0	0	0
5Katelyn BowmanMB	2	7	2	14	.357	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
2Leah McDonaldOH	2	2	2	5	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
15Sasha BespalyMB	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
4Lily RodgersOH	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		52	14	120	.317	47	3	9	54	8	2	12	8	77

Western Caro.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Zoe ZudansOH	3	8	4	32	.125	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
16Sophia MariniOH	3	8	5	16	.188	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8
12Tatum SharpMB	3	4	3	19	.053	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
7Aiyana HarrisMB	3	5	1	15	.267	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
18Katie BoneyS	3	1	0	3	.333	25	3	0	6	0	0	0	0	4
1Ashlyn CobbOH	2	1	3	10	-.200	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
8Taylor BaggettOH	3	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
6Elise GurleyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	12	1	0	0	0	1
20Eda YalçinkayaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
17Evelyn KeeferL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0
15Samantha KranzlerOH	1	1	2	11	-.091	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	2
2Halley TangL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
10Peri SubatOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	20	113	.080	28	8	2	44	3	1	2	2	63

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 11 NO FLA · W CAR 4

Set 1*

27-25

Longest run 3 NO FLAW CAR 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 11 NO FLAW CAR 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 5 NO FLAW CAR 4

Bars above the line = Western Caro. leads, below = North Florida leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

North Florida

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%4/9	57%4/7
2	100%4/4	56%5/9
3	50%4/8	64%7/11
4	50%4/8	75%12/16
5	60%3/5	0%0/3
6	60%3/5	0%0/3
All	56%22/39	57%28/49

Western Caro.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%4/10	57%4/7
2	31%4/13	33%2/6
3	67%4/6	0%0/4
4	29%4/14	64%7/11
5	100%3/3	20%1/5
6	67%2/3	50%3/6
All	43%21/49	44%17/39

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

140 rallies

Rally log

#	NO FLA-W CAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+1.7
2	1-1	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+1.8
3	2-1	W CAR	NO FLA	Attack err	Ashlyn Cobb	blk Sofia Dawson, Haleina Bowers	+1.8
4	2-2	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+1.8
5	3-2	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+1.8
6	3-3	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+1.9
7	3-4	W CAR	W CAR	Kill	Katie Boney	set Ashlyn Cobb	+2.6
8	4-4	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+1.9
9	4-5	NO FLA	W CAR×3	Serve err	NO FLA server		+2.0
10	4-6	W CAR	W CAR×3	Kill	Tatum Sharp	set Katie Boney	+2.7
11	4-7	W CAR	W CAR×3	Ace	W CAR server	aced Kaili Doctor	+2.7
12	5-7	W CAR	NO FLA×3	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+1.8
13	6-7	NO FLA	NO FLA×3	Attack err	Tatum Sharp	blk Haleina Bowers	+2.6
14	7-7	NO FLA	NO FLA×3	Attack err	Tatum Sharp		+2.7
15	7-8	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+2.2
16	8-8	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Sasha Bespaly	set Sofia Dawson	+2.1
17	9-8	NO FLA	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+2.8
18	9-9	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Aiyana Harris	set Katie Boney	+2.2
19	10-9	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+2.2
20	11-9	NO FLA	NO FLA	Kill	Haleina Bowers	set Sofia Dawson	+2.8
21	11-10	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Aiyana Harris	set Katie Boney	+2.1
22	12-10	W CAR	NO FLA×3	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+2.2
23	13-10	NO FLA	NO FLA×3	Attack err	Sophia Marini		+2.7
24	14-10	NO FLA	NO FLA×3	Attack err	Aiyana Harris		+2.3
25	14-11	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+1.5
26	14-12	W CAR	W CAR	Ace	W CAR server	aced Julianna Santiago	+2.5
27	15-12	W CAR	NO FLA	Attack err	Ashlyn Cobb	blk Sofia Dawson, Yarimar Francis Garay	+2.2
28	16-12	NO FLA	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+2.5
29	16-13	NO FLA	W CAR×3	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+1.5
30	16-14	W CAR	W CAR×3	Kill	Tatum Sharp	set Katie Boney	+2.6
31	16-15	W CAR	W CAR×3	Bad set	Sofia Dawson		+3.2
32	17-15	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Leah McDonald	set Sofia Dawson	+2.7
33	18-15	NO FLA	NO FLA	Attack err	Taylor Baggett	blk Leah McDonald, Yarimar Francis Garay	+3.2
34	18-16	NO FLA	W CAR×3	Bad set	Sofia Dawson		+2.1
35	18-17	W CAR	W CAR×3	Attack err	Leah McDonald	blk Zoe Zudans, Tatum Sharp	+3.5
36	18-18	W CAR	W CAR×3	Attack err	Dakota Spurrier		+4.3
37	19-18	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+3.4
38	19-19	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Tatum Sharp	set Katie Boney	+3.5
39	20-19	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+3.7
40	20-20	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Aiyana Harris	set Katie Boney	+3.8
41	20-21	W CAR	W CAR	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+5.8
42	21-21	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+4.2
43	22-21	NO FLA	NO FLA	Attack err	Zoe Zudans	blk Haleina Bowers, Kaili Doctor	+6.3
44	22-22	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+4.7
45	23-22	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Sofia Dawson	set Elise Gurley	+5.6
46	23-23	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Taylor Baggett	set Katie Boney	+5.5
47	24-23	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+7.1
48	24-24	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+7.1
49	25-24	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+7.1
50	25-25	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+7.1
51	26-25	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Sofia Dawson	set Elise Gurley	+7.1
52	27-25	NO FLA	NO FLA	Kill	Leah McDonald	set Sofia Dawson	+9.0
Set 2
1	1-0	NO FLA	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+2.1
2	1-1	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+1.6
3	1-2	W CAR	W CAR	Kill	Aiyana Harris	set Katie Boney	+2.2
4	2-2	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Dakota Spurrier	+1.6
5	3-2	NO FLA	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+2.2
6	3-3	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+1.7
7	4-3	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+1.7
8	4-4	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+1.7
9	4-5	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Yarimar Francis Garay	blk Tatum Sharp	+2.4
10	5-5	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Yarimar Francis Garay	set Sofia Dawson	+1.7
11	5-6	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+1.8
12	5-7	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Kaili Doctor		+2.5
13	6-7	W CAR	NO FLA	Serve err	W CAR server		+1.8
14	6-8	NO FLA	W CAR×3	Kill	Samantha Kranzler	set Tatum Sharp	+1.9
15	6-9	W CAR	W CAR×3	Attack err	Dakota Spurrier		+2.5
16	6-10	W CAR	W CAR×3	Ace	W CAR server	aced Kaili Doctor	+2.4
17	7-10	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+1.5
18	7-11	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+1.8
19	7-12	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Kaili Doctor		+2.2
20	8-12	W CAR	NO FLA×3	Kill	Sofia Dawson		+1.3
21	9-12	NO FLA	NO FLA×3	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+2.1
22	10-12	NO FLA	NO FLA×3	Ace	NO FLA server	aced Team	+2.4
23	10-13	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+2.1
24	10-14	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Haleina Bowers		+2.6
25	11-14	W CAR	NO FLA	Attack err	Zoe Zudans		+1.6
26	12-14	NO FLA	NO FLA	Ace	NO FLA server	aced Team	+2.5
27	12-15	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+2.3
28	13-15	W CAR	NO FLA	Attack err	Samantha Kranzler		+1.9
29	13-16	NO FLA	W CAR×4	Attack err	Dakota Spurrier		+2.3
30	13-17	W CAR	W CAR×4	Attack err	Yarimar Francis Garay		+2.7
31	13-18	W CAR	W CAR×4	Kill	Tatum Sharp	set Katie Boney	+2.2
32	13-19	W CAR	W CAR×4	Attack err	Katelyn Bowman		+1.6
33	14-19	W CAR	NO FLA×11	Kill	Katelyn Bowman	set Sofia Dawson	+0.8
34	15-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Attack err	Sophia Marini		+1.5
35	16-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Attack err	Sophia Marini		+2.1
36	17-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Attack err	Samantha Kranzler		+2.8
37	18-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Attack err	Tatum Sharp	blk Yarimar Francis Garay	+3.5
38	19-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+4.1
39	20-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Emma Pohlmann	+4.5
40	21-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Attack err	Sophia Marini	blk Yarimar Francis Garay, Dakota Spurrier	+4.2
41	22-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+3.5
42	23-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Kill	Yarimar Francis Garay	set Sofia Dawson	+2.2
43	24-19	NO FLA	NO FLA×11	Kill	Katelyn Bowman	set Sofia Dawson	+1.0
44	24-20	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+0.2
45	25-20	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Katelyn Bowman	set Sofia Dawson	+0.4
Set 3
1	0-1	W CAR	W CAR×3	Ace	W CAR server	aced Julianna Santiago	+1.3
2	0-2	W CAR	W CAR×3	Attack err	Sofia Dawson		+1.3
3	0-3	W CAR	W CAR×3	Ace	W CAR server	aced Team	+1.3
4	1-3	W CAR	NO FLA×3	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+0.9
5	2-3	NO FLA	NO FLA×3	Ace	NO FLA server	aced Elise Gurley	+1.3
6	3-3	NO FLA	NO FLA×3	Attack err	Zoe Zudans		+1.4
7	3-4	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+1.1
8	4-4	W CAR	NO FLA×4	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+1.0
9	5-4	NO FLA	NO FLA×4	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+1.4
10	6-4	NO FLA	NO FLA×4	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+1.3
11	7-4	NO FLA	NO FLA×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Cobb		+1.3
12	7-5	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+0.9
13	8-5	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+1.0
14	9-5	NO FLA	NO FLA	Kill	Katelyn Bowman	set Sofia Dawson	+1.2
15	9-6	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+0.8
16	10-6	W CAR	NO FLA	Serve err	W CAR server		+0.9
17	10-7	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+0.8
18	11-7	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+0.9
19	11-8	NO FLA	W CAR	Bad set	Sofia Dawson		+0.8
20	11-9	W CAR	W CAR	Ace	W CAR server	aced Team	+1.3
21	12-9	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+1.1
22	12-10	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+1.0
23	13-10	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+1.1
24	14-10	NO FLA	NO FLA	Attack err	Sophia Marini		+1.3
25	14-11	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Aiyana Harris	set Katie Boney	+0.8
26	15-11	W CAR	NO FLA×5	Kill	Dakota Spurrier	set Sofia Dawson	+1.0
27	16-11	NO FLA	NO FLA×5	Kill	Yarimar Francis Garay	set Brooklyn Stringfellow	+1.0
28	17-11	NO FLA	NO FLA×5	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+0.8
29	18-11	NO FLA	NO FLA×5	Kill	Kaili Doctor	set Sofia Dawson	+0.5
30	19-11	NO FLA	NO FLA×5	Attack err	Taylor Baggett		+0.3
31	19-12	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+0.1
32	20-12	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Sofia Dawson		+0.2
33	21-12	NO FLA	NO FLA	Kill	Katelyn Bowman	set Sofia Dawson	+0.1
34	21-13	NO FLA	W CAR×4	Kill	Ashlyn Cobb	set Elise Gurley	+0.0
35	21-14	W CAR	W CAR×4	Attack err	Katelyn Bowman		+0.1
36	21-15	W CAR	W CAR×4	Attack err	Lily Rodgers		+0.2
37	21-16	W CAR	W CAR×4	Ace	W CAR server	aced Team	+0.3
38	22-16	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Katelyn Bowman	set Sofia Dawson	+0.4
39	22-17	NO FLA	W CAR	Serve err	NO FLA server		+0.2
40	23-17	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+0.3
41	23-18	NO FLA	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+0.1
42	24-18	W CAR	NO FLA	Kill	Katelyn Bowman	set Sofia Dawson	+0.2
43	25-18	NO FLA	NO FLA	Attack err	Zoe Zudans	blk Haleina Bowers, Sofia Dawson	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, North Florida first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.