FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026 · Neutral site

North Florida def. Western Caro. 3–0

North Florida beat Western Caro. 3-0 (27-25, 25-20, 25-18) on Fri, Sep 11, 2026 at a neutral site. North Florida's Dakota Spurrier led with 18 kills, and Emma Pohlmann added 18 digs.

Data through · final Sep 11

Set123Sets
NO FLA2725253
W CAR2520180

Win probability

Western Caro. above 50 · North Florida below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+7.1% NO FLArally 140 · set 3

Biggest swing: 7.1% to North Florida — set 1, NO FLA 27-25 W CAR. Kill by Leah McDonald (set by Sofia Dawson). W CAR win probability 20% → 13%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NO FLA 75.9%24.1% W CAR

North Florida wins

3-0
27.8%
3-1
29.0%
3-2
19.2%

Western Caro. wins

3-0
4.2%
3-1
8.2%
3-2
11.7%
NO FLA break %
44.8% vs this opp
W CAR break %
39.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Leah McDonaldKill+7.1%

    Kill by Leah McDonald (set by Sofia Dawson)

    Set 1 · NO FLA 27-25 W CAR · NO FLA 80% → 87%

  2. 02
    Kaili DoctorKill+5.7%

    Kill by Kaili Doctor (set by Sofia Dawson)

    Set 1 · NO FLA 24-23 W CAR · NO FLA 74% → 80%

  3. 03
    Sophia MariniKill+5.7%

    Kill by Sophia Marini (set by Katie Boney)

    Set 1 · NO FLA 24-24 W CAR · W CAR 20% → 26%

  4. 04
    Kaili DoctorKill+5.7%

    Kill by Kaili Doctor (set by Sofia Dawson)

    Set 1 · NO FLA 25-24 W CAR · NO FLA 74% → 80%

  5. 05
    North FloridaService error+5.7%

    North Florida service error

    Set 1 · NO FLA 25-25 W CAR · W CAR 20% → 26%

  6. 06
    Sofia DawsonKill+5.7%

    Kill by Sofia Dawson (set by Elise Gurley)

    Set 1 · NO FLA 26-25 W CAR · NO FLA 74% → 80%

  7. 07

    Zoe Zudans stuffed by Haleina Bowers & Kaili Doctor

    Set 1 · NO FLA 22-21 W CAR · NO FLA 72% → 78%

  8. 08
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+5.2%

    Point Western Caro. (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 1 · NO FLA 20-21 W CAR · W CAR 26% → 31%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
318332.46912070010.520.5
316241.34100462010.516.5
3329.11100020132.55.5
3416.500430180031.55.5
3118.00000010132.53.5
3000–000620000
3000–113300001
3000–1011800000
27214.357000100007
2225.00010010010.52.5
1102.500000000001
1013-.333000100000
Team totals5214120.3174739548212877
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
38432.12500020010.58.5
38516.188000200008
34319.05311000111.56.5
35115.267000000005
3103.3332530600004
21310-.200110300002
3127-.143000000001
3000–1101210001
3000–000900000
3000–002400000
11211-.091010500002
1000–010100001
1000–000000000
Team totals2920113.080288244312263

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 11 NO FLA · W CAR 4

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 3 NO FLAW CAR 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 11 NO FLAW CAR 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 5 NO FLAW CAR 4

Bars above the line = Western Caro. leads, below = North Florida leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

North Florida

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%4/9
57%4/7
2
100%4/4
56%5/9
3
50%4/8
64%7/11
4
50%4/8
75%12/16
5
60%3/5
0%0/3
6
60%3/5
0%0/3
All
56%22/39
57%28/49

Western Caro.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%4/10
57%4/7
2
31%4/13
33%2/6
3
67%4/6
0%0/4
4
29%4/14
64%7/11
5
100%3/3
20%1/5
6
67%2/3
50%3/6
All
43%21/49
44%17/39

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

140 rallies

#NO FLA-W CARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.3
21-1NO FLAW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.4
32-1W CARNO FLABlockedAshlyn Cobbblk Sofia Dawson, Haleina Bowers+1.4
42-2NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+1.5
53-2W CARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.4
63-3NO FLAW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.5
73-4W CARW CARKillKatie Boneyset Ashlyn Cobb+2.2
84-4W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.5
94-5NO FLAW CAR×3Serve errNorth Florida+1.7
104-6W CARW CAR×3KillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.4
114-7W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Kaili Doctor+2.5
125-7W CARNO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.6
136-7NO FLANO FLA×3BlockedTatum Sharpblk Haleina Bowers+2.3
147-7NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errTatum Sharp+2.3
157-8NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+1.8
168-8W CARNO FLAKillSasha Bespalyset Sofia Dawson+1.7
179-8NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+2.3
189-9NO FLAW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+1.8
1910-9W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+1.7
2011-9NO FLANO FLAKillHaleina Bowersset Sofia Dawson+2.3
2111-10NO FLAW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+1.6
2212-10W CARNO FLA×3KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.7
2313-10NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errSophia Marini+2.1
2414-10NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errAiyana Harris+1.7
2514-11NO FLAW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.1
2614-12W CARW CARAceWestern Caro.aced Julianna Santiago+1.9
2715-12W CARNO FLABlockedAshlyn Cobbblk Sofia Dawson, Yarimar Francis Garay+1.6
2816-12NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.8
2916-13NO FLAW CAR×3KillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.1
3016-14W CARW CAR×3KillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.0
3116-15W CARW CAR×3Bad setSofia Dawson+2.6
3217-15W CARNO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+2.1
3318-15NO FLANO FLABlockedTaylor Baggettblk Leah McDonald, Yarimar Francis Garay+2.5
3418-16NO FLAW CAR×3Bad setSofia Dawson+1.5
3518-17W CARW CAR×3BlockedLeah McDonaldblk Zoe Zudans, Tatum Sharp+2.9
3618-18W CARW CAR×3Attack errDakota Spurrier+3.6
3719-18W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.8
3819-19NO FLAW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.9
3920-19W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+3.0
4020-20NO FLAW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+3.1
4120-21W CAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+5.2
4221-21W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+3.5
4322-21NO FLANO FLABlockedZoe Zudansblk Haleina Bowers, Kaili Doctor+5.4
4422-22NO FLAW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+3.9
4523-22W CARNO FLAKillSofia Dawsonset Elise Gurley+4.6
4623-23NO FLAW CARKillTaylor Baggettset Katie Boney+4.5
4724-23W CARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+5.7
4824-24NO FLAW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+5.7
4925-24W CARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+5.7
5025-25NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+5.7
5126-25W CARNO FLAKillSofia Dawsonset Elise Gurley+5.7
5227-25NO FLANO FLAKillLeah McDonaldset Sofia Dawson+7.1
Set 2
11-0NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.5
21-1NO FLAW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.1
31-2W CARW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+1.6
42-2W CARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Dakota Spurrier+1.1
53-2NO FLANO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.5
63-3NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+1.2
74-3W CARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.1
84-4NO FLAW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.2
94-5W CARW CARBlockedYarimar Francis Garayblk Tatum Sharp+1.8
105-5W CARNO FLAKillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.2
115-6NO FLAW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+1.4
125-7W CARW CARAttack errKaili Doctor+1.9
136-7W CARNO FLAServe errEvelyn Keefer+1.3
146-8NO FLAW CAR×3KillSamantha Kranzlerset Tatum Sharp+1.5
156-9W CARW CAR×3Attack errDakota Spurrier+2.0
166-10W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Kaili Doctor+2.0
177-10W CARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.2
187-11NO FLAW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.5
197-12W CARW CARAttack errKaili Doctor+1.9
208-12W CARNO FLA×3KillSofia Dawson+1.1
219-12NO FLANO FLA×3KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+1.8
2210-12NO FLANO FLA×3AceNorth Florida+2.0
2310-13NO FLAW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.7
2410-14W CARW CARAttack errHaleina Bowers+2.2
2511-14W CARNO FLAAttack errZoe Zudans+1.3
2612-14NO FLANO FLAAceNorth Florida+2.1
2712-15NO FLAW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.8
2813-15W CARNO FLAAttack errSamantha Kranzler+1.5
2913-16NO FLAW CAR×4Attack errDakota Spurrier+1.9
3013-17W CARW CAR×4Attack errYarimar Francis Garay+2.4
3113-18W CARW CAR×4KillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.0
3213-19W CARW CAR×4Attack errKatelyn Bowman+1.5
3314-19W CARNO FLA×11KillKatelyn Bowmanset Sofia Dawson+0.6
3415-19NO FLANO FLA×11Attack errSophia Marini+1.3
3516-19NO FLANO FLA×11Attack errSophia Marini+1.8
3617-19NO FLANO FLA×11Attack errSamantha Kranzler+2.3
3718-19NO FLANO FLA×11BlockedTatum Sharpblk Yarimar Francis Garay+2.8
3819-19NO FLANO FLA×11KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+3.2
3920-19NO FLANO FLA×11KillDakota Spurrierset Emma Pohlmann+3.3
4021-19NO FLANO FLA×11BlockedSophia Mariniblk Yarimar Francis Garay, Dakota Spurrier+3.0
4122-19NO FLANO FLA×11KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+2.3
4223-19NO FLANO FLA×11KillYarimar Francis Garayset Sofia Dawson+1.4
4324-19NO FLANO FLA×11KillKatelyn Bowmanset Sofia Dawson+0.6
4424-20NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+0.1
4525-20W CARNO FLAKillKatelyn Bowmanset Sofia Dawson+0.2
Set 3
10-1W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.aced Julianna Santiago+0.9
20-2W CARW CAR×3Attack errSofia Dawson+0.9
30-3W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.+1.0
41-3W CARNO FLA×3KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.6
52-3NO FLANO FLA×3AceNorth Floridaaced Elise Gurley+0.9
63-3NO FLANO FLA×3Attack errZoe Zudans+0.9
73-4NO FLAW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+0.7
84-4W CARNO FLA×4KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+0.7
95-4NO FLANO FLA×4KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.9
106-4NO FLANO FLA×4KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.8
117-4NO FLANO FLA×4Attack errAshlyn Cobb+0.7
127-5NO FLAW CARKillSophia Mariniset Katie Boney+0.5
138-5W CARNO FLAKillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+0.5
149-5NO FLANO FLAKillKatelyn Bowmanset Sofia Dawson+0.7
159-6NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+0.4
1610-6W CARNO FLAServe errEvelyn Keefer+0.5
1710-7NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+0.4
1811-7W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.5
1911-8NO FLAW CARBad setSofia Dawson+0.5
2011-9W CARW CARAceWestern Caro.+0.8
2112-9W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.6
2212-10NO FLAW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.6
2313-10W CARNO FLAKillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.6
2414-10NO FLANO FLAAttack errSophia Marini+0.7
2514-11NO FLAW CARKillAiyana Harrisset Katie Boney+0.5
2615-11W CARNO FLA×5KillDakota Spurrierset Sofia Dawson+0.5
2716-11NO FLANO FLA×5KillYarimar Francis Garayset Brooklyn Stringfellow+0.6
2817-11NO FLANO FLA×5KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+0.4
2918-11NO FLANO FLA×5KillKaili Doctorset Sofia Dawson+0.3
3019-11NO FLANO FLA×5Attack errTaylor Baggett+0.1
3119-12NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+0.1
3220-12W CARNO FLAKillSofia Dawson+0.1
3321-12NO FLANO FLAKillKatelyn Bowmanset Sofia Dawson+0.1
3421-13NO FLAW CAR×4KillAshlyn Cobbset Elise Gurley·
3521-14W CARW CAR×4Attack errKatelyn Bowman·
3621-15W CARW CAR×4Attack errLily Rodgers+0.1
3721-16W CARW CAR×4AceWestern Caro.+0.2
3822-16W CARNO FLAKillKatelyn Bowmanset Sofia Dawson+0.2
3922-17NO FLAW CARServe errNorth Florida+0.1
4023-17W CARNO FLAKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.2
4123-18NO FLAW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.1
4224-18W CARNO FLAKillKatelyn Bowmanset Sofia Dawson+0.1
4325-18NO FLANO FLABlockedZoe Zudansblk Haleina Bowers, Sofia Dawson·

Score shown after each rally, North Florida first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).