FinalSat, Sep 5, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeBIG-12

Michigan def. Cincinnati 3–0

(28-26, 25-17, 28-26)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MICH	28	25	28	3
CINCY	26	17	26	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CINCY above 50 · MICH below

Biggest swing: 10.1% to Michigan — set 1, MICH 24-24 CINCY. Sydney Nolan stuffed by Ece Senyapici & Sydney Schnichels. CINCY win probability 52% → 42%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MICH 60.2%39.8% CINCY

Michigan wins

3-0

17.3%

3-1

23.0%

3-2

19.9%

Cincinnati wins

3-0

8.7%

3-1

14.5%

3-2

16.6%

MICH break %: 42.6% vs this opp
CINCY break %: 40.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sydney NolanAttack error+10.1%
Sydney Nolan stuffed by Ece Senyapici & Sydney Schnichels
Set 1 · MICH 24-24 CINCY · MICH 48% → 58%
02
Cymarah GordonKill+9.7%
Kill by Cymarah Gordon (set by Morgan Burke)
Set 1 · MICH 25-24 CINCY · MICH 58% → 68%
03
Kate LijicAttack error+9.2%
Kate Lijic stuffed by Ella Demetrician
Set 1 · MICH 28-26 CINCY · MICH 68% → 77%
04
Sydney NolanKill+6.8%
Kill by Sydney Nolan (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · MICH 25-25 CINCY · CINCY 32% → 39%
05
Sydney SchnichelsKill+6.8%
Kill by Sydney Schnichels (set by Meredith Martin)
Set 1 · MICH 26-25 CINCY · MICH 61% → 68%
06
MICH serverService error+6.8%
Michigan service error
Set 1 · MICH 26-26 CINCY · CINCY 32% → 39%
07
CINCY serverService error+6.8%
Cincinnati service error
Set 1 · MICH 27-26 CINCY · MICH 61% → 68%
08
CINCY serverAce+6.7%
Cincinnati ace on Team
Set 1 · MICH 21-23 CINCY · CINCY 46% → 53%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Michiganaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Ella DemetricianOH	3	13	6	40	.175	0	0	1	16	3	3	2	4	17
12Jenna HanesMB	3	8	0	14	.571	0	1	1	7	0	0	5	2.5	11.5
3Cymarah GordonOPP	3	9	1	18	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	10
22Sydney SchnichelsOH	3	6	6	25	.000	1	0	1	3	2	0	2	1	7
4Ece SenyapiciMB	3	2	2	8	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	4
7Morgan BurkeS	3	0	0	0	–	19	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
5Lydia JohnsonOPP	3	8	0	22	.364	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	3	11
16Camille EdwardsS	3	0	0	1	.000	21	4	1	3	0	0	0	0	4
10Carly GreskovicsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0
13Meredith MartinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	23	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	15	128	.242	45	5	4	64	8	4	19	13.5	81

Cincinnatihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Sydney NolanOH	3	24	5	57	.333	0	1	0	10	0	0	1	0.5	25.5
16Izzy BusignaniOH	3	5	11	42	-.143	1	4	0	4	1	0	0	0	9
11Nina ScruccaOPP	3	7	5	18	.111	0	0	2	3	0	0	4	2	9
8Ligia WilliamsOH	3	3	1	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3.5	6.5
6Kate LijicS	3	0	2	3	-.667	33	1	1	9	0	0	0	0	1
4Audrey RomeMB	2	1	1	3	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
21Viktoria NinovaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	18	1	0	0	0	1
1Ava LedebuhrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	11	2	0	0	0	0
18Tatjana SimeunovicMB	2	2	1	6	.167	0	1	0	2	0	1	2	2	5
5Lilian EntenmannMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Kayla HostetlerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	26	140	.114	39	8	4	59	5	3	10	8	69

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 MICH · CINCY 7

Set 1

28-26

Longest run 7 MICHCINCY 7

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 6 MICHCINCY 5

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 6 MICHCINCY 4

Bars above the line = Cincinnati leads, below = Michigan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Michigan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	30%3/10
2	50%8/16	33%4/12
3	78%7/9	63%12/19
4	86%6/7	63%10/16
5	50%6/12	45%5/11
6	38%5/13	58%7/12
All	57%40/70	51%41/80

Cincinnati

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%8/12	63%10/16
2	50%8/16	47%7/15
3	50%7/14	33%4/12
4	33%6/18	22%2/9
5	36%5/14	25%2/8
6	83%5/6	50%5/10
All	49%39/80	43%30/70

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

150 rallies

Rally log

#	MICH-CINCY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.8
2	1-1	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Ece Senyapici	set Morgan Burke	+1.7
3	1-2	MICH	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.8
4	1-3	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+2.6
5	1-4	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+2.6
6	1-5	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.5
7	2-5	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+1.5
8	2-6	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.8
9	3-6	CINCY	MICH×7	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.6
10	4-6	MICH	MICH×7	Ace	MICH server	aced Ava Ledebuhr	+2.5
11	5-6	MICH	MICH×7	Ace	MICH server	aced Kayla Hostetler	+2.6
12	6-6	MICH	MICH×7	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+2.8
13	7-6	MICH	MICH×7	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+2.8
14	8-6	MICH	MICH×7	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+2.7
15	9-6	MICH	MICH×7	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+2.5
16	9-7	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+1.7
17	10-7	CINCY	MICH	Attack err	Kate Lijic		+1.8
18	11-7	MICH	MICH	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Camille Edwards	+2.3
19	11-8	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+1.4
20	11-9	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Sydney Schnichels	blk Nina Scrucca, Ligia Williams	+2.4
21	12-9	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Camille Edwards	+1.9
22	12-10	MICH	CINCY×7	Serve err	MICH server		+1.8
23	12-11	CINCY	CINCY×7	Ace	CINCY server	aced Team	+2.9
24	12-12	CINCY	CINCY×7	Ace	CINCY server	aced Sydney Schnichels	+3.3
25	12-13	CINCY	CINCY×7	Attack err	Sydney Schnichels	blk Ligia Williams, Nina Scrucca	+3.5
26	12-14	CINCY	CINCY×7	Ace	CINCY server	aced Sydney Schnichels	+3.6
27	12-15	CINCY	CINCY×7	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.4
28	12-16	CINCY	CINCY×7	Ace	CINCY server	aced Ella Demetrician	+3.0
29	13-16	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+1.7
30	14-16	MICH	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+3.0
31	14-17	MICH	CINCY	Attack err	Sydney Schnichels		+2.6
32	15-17	CINCY	MICH	Serve err	CINCY server		+2.2
33	15-18	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+2.7
34	16-18	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Ece Senyapici	set Morgan Burke	+2.2
35	17-18	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Audrey Rome	blk Ella Demetrician	+3.8
36	17-19	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.3
37	18-19	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+2.8
38	18-20	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+3.5
39	18-21	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Ella Demetrician	blk Ligia Williams	+4.4
40	19-21	CINCY	MICH×3	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Camille Edwards	+2.2
41	20-21	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Lydia Johnson	+4.4
42	21-21	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Jenna Hanes, Lydia Johnson	+5.7
43	21-22	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Viktoria Ninova	+4.8
44	21-23	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Team	+6.7
45	22-23	CINCY	MICH	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Jenna Hanes, Lydia Johnson	+3.3
46	22-24	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Viktoria Ninova	+5.6
47	23-24	CINCY	MICH×3	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+3.1
48	24-24	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Ece Senyapici, Sydney Schnichels	+10.1
49	25-24	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+9.7
50	25-25	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+6.8
51	26-25	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Meredith Martin	+6.8
52	26-26	MICH	CINCY	Serve err	MICH server		+6.8
53	27-26	CINCY	MICH	Serve err	CINCY server		+6.8
54	28-26	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Kate Lijic	blk Ella Demetrician	+9.2
Set 2
1	1-0	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.5
2	2-0	MICH	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+2.1
3	2-1	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Izzy Busignani	+1.5
4	3-1	CINCY	MICH×6	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Meredith Martin	+1.5
5	4-1	MICH	MICH×6	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+2.0
6	5-1	MICH	MICH×6	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+1.9
7	6-1	MICH	MICH×6	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+1.6
8	7-1	MICH	MICH×6	Kill	Ella Demetrician		+1.4
9	8-1	MICH	MICH×6	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Jenna Hanes, Cymarah Gordon	+1.1
10	8-2	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
11	9-2	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Sydney Schnichels	+0.8
12	9-3	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
13	10-3	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Camille Edwards	+0.8
14	11-3	MICH	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+0.8
15	11-4	MICH	CINCY	Attack err	Sydney Schnichels		+0.4
16	12-4	CINCY	MICH×4	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Camille Edwards	+0.6
17	13-4	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Ece Senyapici, Lydia Johnson, Sydney Schnichels	+0.6
18	14-4	MICH	MICH×4	Ace	MICH server	aced Izzy Busignani	+0.4
19	15-4	MICH	MICH×4	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Camille Edwards	+0.2
20	15-5	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
21	16-5	CINCY	MICH	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.1
22	16-6	MICH	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.1
23	16-7	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Ece Senyapici	blk Ligia Williams	+0.2
24	16-8	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
25	17-8	CINCY	MICH	Attack err	Nina Scrucca	blk Ece Senyapici, Cymarah Gordon	+0.3
26	17-9	MICH	CINCY×5	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
27	17-10	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Ella Demetrician	blk Nina Scrucca, Tatjana Simeunovic	+0.4
28	17-11	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
29	17-12	CINCY	CINCY×5	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+0.9
30	17-13	CINCY	CINCY×5	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.3
31	18-13	CINCY	MICH	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+1.2
32	18-14	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.9
33	19-14	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+1.2
34	19-15	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.8
35	20-15	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+1.2
36	21-15	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+1.0
37	21-16	MICH	CINCY	Serve err	MICH server		+0.4
38	21-17	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Ella Demetrician	+0.9
39	22-17	CINCY	MICH×4	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Camille Edwards	+1.1
40	23-17	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.7
41	24-17	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Ligia Williams		+0.2
42	25-17	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.0
2	1-1	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.9
3	2-1	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Nina Scrucca	blk Ella Demetrician, Jenna Hanes	+1.3
4	2-2	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+1.0
5	2-3	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan		+1.4
6	3-3	CINCY	MICH×6	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Morgan Burke	+1.0
7	4-3	MICH	MICH×6	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Camille Edwards	+1.4
8	5-3	MICH	MICH×6	Attack err	Tatjana Simeunovic	blk Jenna Hanes, Ella Demetrician	+1.3
9	6-3	MICH	MICH×6	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Meredith Martin	+1.3
10	7-3	MICH	MICH×6	Ace	MICH server	aced Ava Ledebuhr	+1.1
11	8-3	MICH	MICH×6	Ace	MICH server	aced Viktoria Ninova	+1.0
12	8-4	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.6
13	8-5	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Ella Demetrician	+1.0
14	9-5	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+0.8
15	9-6	MICH	CINCY	Attack err	Ella Demetrician	blk Tatjana Simeunovic	+0.8
16	10-6	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Camille Edwards	+0.9
17	10-7	MICH	CINCY×4	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.8
18	10-8	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Sydney Schnichels		+1.3
19	10-9	CINCY	CINCY×4	Attack err	Sydney Schnichels	blk Ligia Williams, Nina Scrucca	+1.5
20	10-10	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Viktoria Ninova	+1.6
21	11-10	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+1.2
22	12-10	MICH	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.6
23	12-11	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+1.1
24	13-11	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.2
25	13-12	MICH	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.2
26	13-13	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Meredith Martin	+1.8
27	13-14	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Ece Senyapici		+2.0
28	14-14	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+1.4
29	14-15	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.5
30	15-15	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.4
31	15-16	MICH	CINCY	Serve err	MICH server		+1.6
32	15-17	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+2.2
33	16-17	CINCY	MICH×3	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+1.4
34	17-17	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Meredith Martin	+2.3
35	18-17	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Camille Edwards	+2.4
36	18-18	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Tatjana Simeunovic	set Kate Lijic	+1.7
37	19-18	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Camille Edwards	+1.8
38	19-19	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.8
39	20-19	CINCY	MICH	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Ece Senyapici, Lydia Johnson	+2.0
40	20-20	MICH	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+2.0
41	20-21	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.2
42	20-22	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan		+3.2
43	21-22	CINCY	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Morgan Burke	+1.8
44	21-23	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.6
45	21-24	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon	blk Tatjana Simeunovic, Sydney Nolan	+2.6
46	22-24	CINCY	MICH×3	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.7
47	23-24	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Nina Scrucca	blk Ella Demetrician	+2.3
48	24-24	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+5.5
49	24-25	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.9
50	25-25	CINCY	MICH	Serve err	CINCY server		+3.9
51	25-26	MICH	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.9
52	26-26	CINCY	MICH×3	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+3.9
53	27-26	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+5.2
54	28-26	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+5.0

Score shown after each rally, Michigan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.