FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwaySOCON

0:3

HomeBIG-SOUTH

USC Upstate def. Western Caro. 3–0

(25-17, 25-21, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
W CAR	17	21	22	0
SC UPS	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SC UPS above 50 · W CAR below

Biggest swing: 3.3% to USC Upstate — set 2, W CAR 17-18 SC UPS. Attack error by Brookelynn Nance. SC UPS win probability 80% → 83%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

W CAR 32.9%67.1% SC UPS

Western Caro. wins

3-0

6.5%

3-1

11.7%

3-2

14.7%

USC Upstate wins

3-0

21.3%

3-1

25.7%

3-2

20.0%

W CAR break %: 42.5% vs this opp
SC UPS break %: 45.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Brookelynn NanceAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Brookelynn Nance
Set 2 · W CAR 17-18 SC UPS · SC UPS 80% → 83%
02
SC UPS serverAce+3.2%
USC Upstate ace on Elise Gurley
Set 2 · W CAR 17-17 SC UPS · SC UPS 76% → 80%
03
Kensley HanelineKill+3.2%
Kill by Kensley Haneline (set by Sarah O'Connor)
Set 2 · W CAR 20-22 SC UPS · SC UPS 84% → 88%
04
Sophia MariniAttack error+3.2%
Sophia Marini stuffed by Tehillah Garrison
Set 2 · W CAR 17-19 SC UPS · SC UPS 83% → 86%
05
SC UPS serverAce+3.1%
USC Upstate ace on Eda Yalçinkaya
Set 2 · W CAR 20-23 SC UPS · SC UPS 88% → 91%
06
Tien MurrayAttack error+3.1%
Tien Murray stuffed by Brookelynn Nance
Set 2 · W CAR 16-14 SC UPS · W CAR 22% → 26%
07
Tehillah GarrisonAttack error+3.0%
Attack error by Tehillah Garrison
Set 2 · W CAR 19-20 SC UPS · W CAR 13% → 16%
08
W CAR serverService error+2.9%
Western Caro. service error
Set 2 · W CAR 19-21 SC UPS · SC UPS 84% → 87%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Western Caro.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Tatum SharpMB	3	3	1	16	.125	0	1	0	2	0	1	4	3	7
18Katie BoneyS	3	3	0	10	.300	20	1	1	14	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
2Halley TangL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
3Brookelynn NanceMB	2	3	4	12	-.083	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5
22Zoe ZudansOH	2	4	3	14	.071	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4
17Evelyn KeeferL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
10Peri SubatOH	3	7	5	27	.074	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7
20Eda YalçinkayaL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	0
6Elise GurleyL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	0	3	11	2	0	0	0	0
16Sophia MariniOH	2	4	3	15	.067	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4
8Taylor BaggettOH	2	1	2	11	-.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
11JoJo AbeytaMB	1	4	0	9	.444	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Samantha KranzlerOH	1	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	3
9Danielle WheatS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	19	124	.097	28	2	6	51	5	3	10	8	60

USC Upstatehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
0Summer KohlerOH	3	13	6	30	.233	5	1	2	14	1	0	0	0	14
18Kensley HanelineMB	3	11	2	20	.450	2	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	13
7Tien MurrayMB	3	4	3	13	.077	0	3	3	3	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
6Savannah PageOH	3	6	3	25	.120	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	8
3Bri BratholOH	3	2	1	9	.111	1	1	1	12	1	0	0	0	3
20Kamyla Vega DavidS	3	1	1	4	.000	14	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
10Sophia SpiveyOH	3	5	2	19	.158	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
8Sophia OverholtL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	18	0	0	0	0	1
23Sarah O'ConnorS	3	0	0	2	.000	16	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
19Tehillah GarrisonOH	2	2	1	9	.111	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	3
13Emma DeSensiL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	19	132	.197	38	5	7	61	2	2	10	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 W CAR · SC UPS 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 W CARSC UPS 6

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 4 W CARSC UPS 5

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 6 W CARSC UPS 3

Bars above the line = USC Upstate leads, below = Western Caro. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Western Caro.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	67%10/15
2	44%7/16	22%2/9
3	50%7/14	22%2/9
4	50%6/12	42%5/12
5	63%5/8	25%2/8
6	44%4/9	38%3/8
All	49%36/74	39%24/61

USC Upstate

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	50%6/12
2	78%7/9	56%9/16
3	70%7/10	59%10/17
4	67%6/9	40%4/10
5	55%6/11	50%6/12
6	40%4/10	43%3/7
All	61%37/61	51%38/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

135 rallies

Rally log

#	W CAR-SC UPS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Elise Gurley	+1.8
2	2-0	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Savannah Page		+2.3
3	2-1	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Bri Brathol	+1.7
4	2-2	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Tien Murray	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.2
5	3-2	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Brookelynn Nance	set Katie Boney	+1.9
6	3-3	W CAR	SC UPS×6	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sophia Overholt	+1.8
7	3-4	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Zoe Zudans	+2.3
8	3-5	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Zoe Zudans	+2.2
9	3-6	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Attack err	Brookelynn Nance		+2.0
10	3-7	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Attack err	Sophia Marini		+1.8
11	3-8	SC UPS	SC UPS×6	Attack err	Brookelynn Nance	blk Kensley Haneline	+1.6
12	4-8	SC UPS	W CAR	Serve err	SC UPS server		+1.1
13	5-8	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Kensley Haneline		+1.7
14	5-9	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.5
15	5-10	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Taylor Baggett		+1.6
16	6-10	SC UPS	W CAR	Serve err	SC UPS server		+1.1
17	6-11	W CAR	SC UPS×3	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.3
18	6-12	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Taylor Baggett	blk Sophia Spivey, Kensley Haneline	+1.3
19	6-13	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.0
20	7-13	SC UPS	W CAR×3	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Elise Gurley	+0.6
21	8-13	W CAR	W CAR×3	Kill	Tatum Sharp		+1.1
22	9-13	W CAR	W CAR×3	Attack err	Summer Kohler	blk Tatum Sharp, Katie Boney	+1.4
23	9-14	W CAR	SC UPS×3	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.3
24	9-15	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Tatum Sharp	+1.3
25	9-16	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Tien Murray	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.9
26	10-16	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Peri Subat	set Katie Boney	+0.5
27	11-16	W CAR	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+1.0
28	11-17	W CAR	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.0
29	11-18	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Zoe Zudans	blk Savannah Page, Tien Murray	+0.9
30	11-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Savannah Page	set Summer Kohler	+0.5
31	12-19	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Tatum Sharp	set Katie Boney	+0.2
32	12-20	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.4
33	13-20	SC UPS	W CAR	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.2
34	13-21	W CAR	SC UPS	Serve err	W CAR server		+0.3
35	14-21	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Brookelynn Nance	set Katie Boney	+0.1
36	14-22	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.2
37	15-22	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Peri Subat	set Katie Boney	+0.1
38	15-23	W CAR	SC UPS	Serve err	W CAR server		+0.2
39	16-23	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+0.1
40	17-23	W CAR	W CAR	Kill	Peri Subat	set Katie Boney	+0.1
41	17-24	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.2
42	17-25	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Overholt	set Katie Boney	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	W CAR	W CAR×3	Attack err	Tien Murray	blk Brookelynn Nance	+1.9
2	2-0	W CAR	W CAR×3	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.0
3	3-0	W CAR	W CAR×3	Ace	W CAR server	aced Summer Kohler	+2.0
4	3-1	W CAR	SC UPS×5	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.5
5	3-2	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.9
6	3-3	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Attack err	Sophia Marini	blk Savannah Page, Tien Murray	+2.0
7	3-4	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Elise Gurley	+1.9
8	3-5	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Savannah Page	set Summer Kohler	+1.8
9	4-5	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Brookelynn Nance	set Katie Boney	+1.5
10	5-5	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Kamyla Vega David		+2.0
11	5-6	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Tien Murray	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.6
12	6-6	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Peri Subat	set Elise Gurley	+1.6
13	6-7	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Bri Brathol	set Summer Kohler	+1.6
14	6-8	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Peri Subat		+2.0
15	7-8	SC UPS	W CAR×4	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+1.6
16	8-8	W CAR	W CAR×4	Attack err	Sophia Spivey		+2.2
17	9-8	W CAR	W CAR×4	Attack err	Bri Brathol		+2.4
18	10-8	W CAR	W CAR×4	Bad set	Sophia Spivey		+2.4
19	10-9	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.8
20	10-10	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kensley Haneline	+2.4
21	11-10	SC UPS	W CAR×3	Attack err	Kensley Haneline	blk Tatum Sharp	+2.0
22	12-10	W CAR	W CAR×3	Kill	Katie Boney	set Halley Tang	+2.6
23	13-10	W CAR	W CAR×3	Attack err	Summer Kohler	blk Tatum Sharp, Katie Boney	+2.6
24	13-11	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.8
25	14-11	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Katie Boney	set Evelyn Keefer	+2.1
26	14-12	W CAR	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Brookelynn Nance		+1.8
27	14-13	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Zoe Zudans		+2.6
28	14-14	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Savannah Page	set Kamyla Vega David	+2.8
29	15-14	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Katie Boney	set Halley Tang	+2.4
30	16-14	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Tien Murray	blk Brookelynn Nance	+3.1
31	16-15	W CAR	SC UPS	Attack err	Zoe Zudans		+2.2
32	17-15	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Zoe Zudans	set Katie Boney	+2.6
33	17-16	W CAR	SC UPS×5	Serve err	W CAR server		+2.3
34	17-17	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Elise Gurley	+3.2
35	17-18	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Attack err	Brookelynn Nance		+3.3
36	17-19	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Attack err	Sophia Marini	blk Tehillah Garrison	+3.2
37	17-20	SC UPS	SC UPS×5	Kill	Savannah Page	set Katie Boney	+2.7
38	18-20	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Peri Subat	set Katie Boney	+1.7
39	19-20	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Tehillah Garrison		+3.0
40	19-21	W CAR	SC UPS	Serve err	W CAR server		+2.9
41	20-21	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Sophia Marini	set Katie Boney	+2.6
42	20-22	W CAR	SC UPS×3	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+3.2
43	20-23	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Ace	SC UPS server	aced Eda Yalçinkaya	+3.1
44	20-24	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Tatum Sharp		+1.8
45	21-24	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Peri Subat	set Katie Boney	+0.5
46	21-25	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.0
Set 3
1	1-0	SC UPS	W CAR	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.9
2	1-1	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Tien Murray	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.8
3	1-2	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Tehillah Garrison		+1.0
4	2-2	SC UPS	W CAR	Serve err	SC UPS server		+0.8
5	3-2	W CAR	W CAR	Attack err	Savannah Page	blk Samantha Kranzler, JoJo Abeyta	+1.1
6	3-3	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Tehillah Garrison	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.9
7	4-3	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	JoJo Abeyta	set Katie Boney	+0.9
8	4-4	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.9
9	4-5	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline		+1.1
10	5-5	SC UPS	W CAR	Attack err	Sophia Spivey	blk Tatum Sharp, Samantha Kranzler	+0.9
11	5-6	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.9
12	5-7	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.1
13	6-7	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Samantha Kranzler	set Halley Tang	+0.9
14	6-8	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sarah O'Connor	+0.9
15	7-8	SC UPS	W CAR×6	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+0.9
16	8-8	W CAR	W CAR×6	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+1.2
17	9-8	W CAR	W CAR×6	Attack err	Tien Murray		+1.3
18	10-8	W CAR	W CAR×6	Attack err	Summer Kohler		+1.4
19	11-8	W CAR	W CAR×6	Kill	JoJo Abeyta	set Katie Boney	+1.4
20	12-8	W CAR	W CAR×6	Ace	W CAR server	aced Bri Brathol	+1.3
21	12-9	W CAR	SC UPS×3	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.9
22	12-10	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Peri Subat	blk Savannah Page, Tien Murray	+1.3
23	12-11	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Peri Subat		+1.4
24	13-11	SC UPS	W CAR	Attack err	Savannah Page		+1.2
25	13-12	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.1
26	13-13	SC UPS	SC UPS	Attack err	Peri Subat		+1.5
27	14-13	SC UPS	W CAR	Serve err	SC UPS server		+1.3
28	14-14	W CAR	SC UPS	Attack err	Samantha Kranzler	blk Savannah Page, Kensley Haneline	+1.2
29	14-15	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Summer Kohler	+1.6
30	15-15	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Taylor Baggett	set Katie Boney	+1.3
31	15-16	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Sophia Spivey	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.3
32	15-17	SC UPS	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.6
33	16-17	SC UPS	W CAR	Serve err	SC UPS server		+1.2
34	16-18	W CAR	SC UPS	Serve err	W CAR server		+1.3
35	17-18	SC UPS	W CAR	Attack err	Summer Kohler	blk Tatum Sharp, Katie Boney	+1.2
36	17-19	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Sarah O'Connor	+1.4
37	18-19	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Tatum Sharp	set Katie Boney	+1.3
38	18-20	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Summer Kohler	set Kamyla Vega David	+1.5
39	19-20	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	Peri Subat	set Katie Boney	+1.4
40	19-21	W CAR	SC UPS×3	Attack err	Peri Subat		+1.6
41	19-22	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Bri Brathol	set Kensley Haneline	+1.7
42	19-23	SC UPS	SC UPS×3	Kill	Kamyla Vega David	set Summer Kohler	+1.1
43	20-23	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	JoJo Abeyta	set Katie Boney	+0.4
44	20-24	W CAR	SC UPS	Kill	Kensley Haneline	set Kamyla Vega David	+0.8
45	21-24	SC UPS	W CAR	Kill	JoJo Abeyta	set Katie Boney	+0.3
46	22-24	W CAR	W CAR	Kill	Samantha Kranzler	set Elise Gurley	+0.8
47	22-25	W CAR	SC UPS	Serve err	W CAR server		+1.3

Score shown after each rally, Western Caro. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.