Final · 4 setsFri, Sep 11, 2026 · Neutral site

TCU def. Michigan 3–1

TCU beat Michigan 3-1 (25-19, 25-23, 17-25, 25-23) on Fri, Sep 11, 2026 at a neutral site. TCU's Becca Kelley led with 23 kills, and Alice Volpe added 27 digs.

Data through · final Sep 11

Set1234Sets
MICH192325231
TCU252517253

Win probability

TCU above 50 · Michigan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+7.9% TCUrally 182 · set 4

Biggest swing: 7.9% to TCU — set 4, MICH 23-25 TCU. Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer). TCU win probability 92% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MICH 40.5%59.5% TCU

Michigan wins

3-0
8.9%
3-1
14.8%
3-2
16.8%

TCU wins

3-0
17.0%
3-1
22.7%
3-2
19.9%
MICH break %
39.4% vs this opp
TCU break %
41.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Becca KelleyKill+7.9%

    Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 4 · MICH 23-25 TCU · TCU 92% → 100%

  2. 02
    TCUAce+7.8%

    TCU ace on Carly Greskovics

    Set 4 · MICH 21-23 TCU · TCU 85% → 93%

  3. 03

    Kill by De'Andrea McMillian

    Set 4 · MICH 18-19 TCU · TCU 77% → 84%

  4. 04

    Kill by Rosemary Archer (set by Evan Hendrix)

    Set 4 · MICH 22-24 TCU · TCU 89% → 95%

  5. 05
    Becca KelleyKill+5.7%

    Kill by Becca Kelley (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 2 · MICH 23-25 TCU · TCU 85% → 91%

  6. 06
    Evan HendrixKill+5.7%

    Kill by Evan Hendrix (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 4 · MICH 18-18 TCU · TCU 72% → 77%

  7. 07
    Reese RobinsKill+5.6%

    Kill by Reese Robins (set by Rosemary Archer)

    Set 4 · MICH 21-22 TCU · TCU 80% → 85%

  8. 08
    MichiganService error+4.9%

    Michigan service error

    Set 4 · MICH 20-21 TCU · TCU 80% → 84%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
422139.53800050010.522.5
415843.1632009200015
48429.1380149002110
46112.417010300007
4000–24611100006
4109.111000200423
46315.20010020010.56.5
4001.0002011800001
4000–8111500001
3000–100110000
Team totals5817148.2775610765308490
TCUhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
423652.32710041111.524.5
419343.37240243010.519.5
410220.40000220010.510.5
4103.333000002234
34113.231000100004
3000–800300000
47317.23521160010.58.5
4105.20037221000003
4003.000000100000
4000–6002710000
4000–000000000
1000–000300000
Team totals6515156.3215837611036692

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MICH · TCU 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 MICHTCU 5

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 5 MICHTCU 6

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 6 MICHTCU 2

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 4 MICHTCU 4

Bars above the line = TCU leads, below = Michigan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Michigan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
47%8/17
2
71%10/14
39%7/18
3
60%9/15
9%1/11
4
45%9/20
50%9/18
5
80%8/10
31%4/13
6
62%8/13
43%6/14
All
60%55/91
38%35/91

TCU

SlotSideout %Break %
1
73%11/15
47%8/17
2
69%11/16
42%8/19
3
56%9/16
36%5/14
4
56%9/16
25%3/12
5
100%9/9
53%10/19
6
37%7/19
20%2/10
All
62%56/91
40%36/91

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

182 rallies

#MICH-TCUSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1TCUTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Reese Wilburn+2.5
21-1TCUMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke+1.7
31-2MICHTCU×3KillKinsley Youngset Reese Wilburn+1.7
41-3TCUTCU×3KillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+2.5
51-4TCUTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+2.3
62-4TCUMICHKillJenna Hanesset Morgan Burke+1.5
72-5MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+1.6
83-5TCUMICHKillJenna Hanesset Lydia Johnson+1.5
93-6MICHTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+1.6
104-6TCUMICHServe errTCU+1.5
114-7MICHTCUBlockedSydney Schnichelsblk De'Andrea McMillian+1.7
124-8TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+2.2
135-8TCUMICHServe errTCU+1.3
145-9MICHTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+1.5
155-10TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+1.9
166-10TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.1
176-11MICHTCUKillReese Robinsset Reese Wilburn+1.3
187-11TCUMICHBlockedBecca Kelleyblk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici+1.1
197-12MICHTCU×3KillKinsley Youngset Reese Wilburn+1.3
207-13TCUTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Evan Hendrix+1.5
217-14TCUTCU×3KillJalyn Gibsonset Meredith Martin+1.1
228-14TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.5
238-15MICHTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+0.7
249-15TCUMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.5
2510-15MICHMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+1.1
2610-16MICHTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+1.0
2711-16TCUMICH×4KillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+0.7
2812-16MICHMICH×4AceMichigan+1.5
2913-16MICHMICH×4Attack errJalyn Gibson+2.0
3014-16MICHMICH×4KillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+2.7
3114-17MICHTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+2.2
3215-17TCUMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+1.9
3315-18MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+2.3
3416-18TCUMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+1.9
3516-19MICHTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+2.4
3617-19TCUMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+1.9
3718-19MICHMICHKillJenna Hanesset Morgan Burke+3.8
3818-20MICHTCUAttack errElla Demetrician+3.1
3919-20TCUMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+2.7
4019-21MICHTCU×5KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+3.4
4119-22TCUTCU×5KillBecca Kelleyset Evan Hendrix+4.0
4219-23TCUTCU×5KillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+2.5
4319-24TCUTCU×5KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+1.1
4419-25TCUTCU×5KillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+0.2
Set 2
10-1MICHTCUAttack errElla Demetrician+1.5
21-1TCUMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Meredith Martin+1.5
32-1MICHMICH×3Attack errJalyn Gibson+2.4
43-1MICHMICH×3AceMichigan+2.4
53-2MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+1.6
64-2TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.7
74-3MICHTCUBlockedLydia Johnsonblk Evan Hendrix, De'Andrea McMillian+1.6
85-3TCUMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.7
95-4MICHTCU×6KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+1.6
105-5TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+2.5
115-6TCUTCU×6Attack errElla Demetrician+2.5
125-7TCUTCU×6Attack errElla Demetrician+2.5
135-8TCUTCU×6KillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+2.3
145-9TCUTCU×6KillEvan Hendrixset Becca Kelley+2.1
156-9TCUMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+1.2
166-10MICHTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+1.4
177-10TCUMICH×3KillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+1.2
188-10MICHMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Meredith Martin+2.2
199-10MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced Becca Kelley+2.6
209-11MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Alice Volpe+1.9
2110-11TCUMICHBlockedBecca Kelleyblk Sydney Schnichels, Ece Senyapici+1.8
2210-12MICHTCU×4KillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+1.9
2310-13TCUTCU×4KillBecca Kelley+2.6
2410-14TCUTCU×4AceTCUaced Ella Demetrician+2.3
2510-15TCUTCU×4Attack errElla Demetrician+1.8
2611-15TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.9
2711-16MICHTCUBlockedJenna Hanesblk De'Andrea McMillian+1.2
2812-16TCUMICHAttack errBecca Kelley+0.9
2913-16MICHMICHKillElla Demetrician+1.9
3013-17MICHTCUAttack errElla Demetrician+1.6
3114-17TCUMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.3
3215-17MICHMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.5
3315-18MICHTCU×3KillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+2.1
3415-19TCUTCU×3Attack errSydney Schnichels+2.5
3515-20TCUTCU×3KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+1.7
3616-20TCUMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+0.7
3716-21MICHTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+1.1
3816-22TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+0.9
3917-22TCUMICH×5Serve errTCU+0.2
4018-22MICHMICH×5KillSydney Schnichelsset Meredith Martin+0.7
4119-22MICHMICH×5Attack errReese Robins+1.3
4220-22MICHMICH×5KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.3
4321-22MICHMICH×5Attack errBecca Kelley+3.9
4421-23MICHTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Reese Wilburn+3.8
4522-23TCUMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Ella Demetrician+2.7
4622-24MICHTCUServe errMichigan+4.4
4723-24TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Ella Demetrician+2.4
4823-25MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+5.7
Set 3
10-1TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+1.4
20-2TCUTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Alice Volpe+1.3
31-2TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.9
42-2MICHMICHAttack errBecca Kelley+1.4
52-3MICHTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Alice Volpe+0.9
63-3TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.0
73-4MICHTCUServe errMichigan+1.0
84-4TCUMICHServe errTCU+1.0
94-5MICHTCUAttack errElla Demetrician+1.0
104-6TCUTCUAttack errLydia Johnson+1.4
115-6TCUMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.9
126-6MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.5
136-7MICHTCUKillBecca Kelley+1.0
147-7TCUMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+1.1
157-8MICHTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+1.1
168-8TCUMICH×6BlockedEvan Hendrixblk Lydia Johnson, Ece Senyapici+1.1
179-8MICHMICH×6AceMichigan+1.7
1810-8MICHMICH×6AceMichiganaced Evan Hendrix+1.7
1911-8MICHMICH×6AceMichiganaced Alice Volpe+1.7
2012-8MICHMICH×6Attack errEvan Hendrix+1.5
2113-8MICHMICH×6Attack errEvan Hendrix+1.3
2213-9MICHTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.7
2313-10TCUTCUBlockedCymarah Gordonblk Kinsley Young, Jalyn Gibson+1.3
2414-10TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.1
2514-11MICHTCUKillJalyn Gibsonset Rosemary Archer+0.9
2615-11TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.1
2715-12MICHTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.9
2815-13TCUTCUAttack errElla Demetrician+1.6
2916-13TCUMICH×6KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.3
3017-13MICHMICH×6KillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+1.7
3118-13MICHMICH×6KillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+1.3
3219-13MICHMICH×6KillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.9
3320-13MICHMICH×6Attack errKinsley Young+0.6
3421-13MICHMICH×6AceMichiganaced Evan Hendrix+0.3
3521-14MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+0.1
3621-15TCUTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Jalyn Gibson+0.2
3722-15TCUMICHServe errTCU+0.3
3822-16MICHTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+0.1
3923-16TCUMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+0.2
4023-17MICHTCUBlockedSydney Schnichelsblk Becca Kelley+0.1
4124-17TCUMICHBlockedJalyn Gibsonblk Sydney Schnichels, Ece Senyapici+0.1
4225-17MICHMICHAceMichiganaced Evan Hendrix·
Set 4
10-1MICHTCUAttack errSydney Schnichels+2.1
21-1TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.1
31-2MICHTCUServe errMichigan+2.1
42-2TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.2
52-3MICHTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+2.2
63-3TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.2
73-4MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+2.2
83-5TCUTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Jalyn Gibson+3.2
94-5TCUMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+2.1
104-6MICHTCUKillKinsley Youngset Rosemary Archer+2.2
115-6TCUMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.2
125-7MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+2.3
135-8TCUTCUAceTCUaced Ella Demetrician+3.2
146-8TCUMICH×3Serve errTCU+2.0
157-8MICHMICH×3AceMichigan+3.3
168-8MICHMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+3.7
178-9MICHTCUServe errMichigan+2.6
188-10TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+3.7
199-10TCUMICH×4KillCymarah Gordonset Meredith Martin+2.4
2010-10MICHMICH×4KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+3.9
2111-10MICHMICH×4KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+4.2
2212-10MICHMICH×4AceMichigan+4.2
2312-11MICHTCUServe errMichigan+2.7
2413-11TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+3.0
2513-12MICHTCUKillReese Robinsset Rosemary Archer+2.7
2614-12TCUMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Carly Greskovics+3.1
2715-12MICHMICH×3Attack errKinsley Young+4.3
2816-12MICHMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+3.8
2916-13MICHTCUServe errMichigan+2.0
3016-14TCUTCUKillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+3.8
3117-14TCUMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+3.2
3217-15MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+2.6
3318-15TCUMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+3.3
3418-16MICHTCU×4KillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+2.6
3518-17TCUTCU×4BlockedLydia Johnsonblk Becca Kelley, De'Andrea McMillian+4.9
3618-18TCUTCU×4KillEvan Hendrixset Rosemary Archer+5.7
3718-19TCUTCU×4KillDe'Andrea McMillian+6.1
3819-19TCUMICHServe errTCU+4.1
3919-20MICHTCUKillReese Robinsset Evan Hendrix+4.5
4020-20TCUMICHAttack errBecca Kelley+4.4
4120-21MICHTCUServe errMichigan+4.9
4221-21TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+4.9
4321-22MICHTCUKillReese Robinsset Rosemary Archer+5.6
4421-23TCUTCUAceTCUaced Carly Greskovics+7.8
4522-23TCUMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+3.6
4622-24MICHTCUKillRosemary Archerset Evan Hendrix+6.0
4723-24TCUMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+3.2
4823-25MICHTCUKillBecca Kelleyset Rosemary Archer+7.9

Score shown after each rally, Michigan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).