FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

Michigan def. South Fla. 3–0

Michigan won at South Fla. 3-0 (26-24, 25-23, 25-20) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026. Michigan's Ella Demetrician led with 14 kills, and Meredith Martin added 11 digs.

Data through · final Sep 12

Set123Sets
MICH2625253
USF2423200

Win probability

South Fla. above 50 · Michigan below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+5.7% MICHrally 143 · set 3

Biggest swing: 5.7% to Michigan — set 1, MICH 26-24 USF. Attack error by Mora Pampin. USF win probability 15% → 9%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MICH 83.2%16.8% USF

Michigan wins

3-0
34.9%
3-1
31.0%
3-2
17.3%

South Fla. wins

3-0
2.6%
3-1
5.5%
3-2
8.8%
MICH break %
44.1% vs this opp
USF break %
36.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Mora PampinAttack error+5.7%

    Attack error by Mora Pampin

    Set 1 · MICH 26-24 USF · MICH 85% → 91%

  2. 02

    Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Meredith Martin)

    Set 1 · MICH 24-23 USF · MICH 81% → 85%

  3. 03
    Paula TomasaKill+4.5%

    Kill by Paula Tomasa (set by Nina Jioshvili-Ravva)

    Set 1 · MICH 24-24 USF · USF 15% → 19%

  4. 04

    Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Meredith Martin)

    Set 1 · MICH 25-24 USF · MICH 81% → 85%

  5. 05

    Laila Ivey stuffed by Sydney Schnichels & Ece Senyapici

    Set 1 · MICH 21-20 USF · MICH 79% → 84%

  6. 06
    South Fla.Ace+3.8%

    South Fla. ace on Sydney Schnichels

    Set 1 · MICH 17-19 USF · USF 22% → 26%

  7. 07

    Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Morgan Burke)

    Set 1 · MICH 23-22 USF · MICH 81% → 84%

  8. 08
    Lydia JohnsonKill+3.6%

    Kill by Lydia Johnson (set by Ella Demetrician)

    Set 1 · MICH 19-19 USF · MICH 76% → 80%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314738.1842103100015
311120.50001381111.513.5
310628.1430000002111
3417.429001700004
3215.20000000031.53.5
3001.0002611400001
35214.214100400005
3000–1201600000
3000–3021100000
1000–001000000
Team totals4618113.248443943216476
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314730.2330001000014
313325.4000004102114
36224.16701151052.59.5
3125-.200000001434
3126-.16710110132.53.5
3003.0001800600000
33219.053000100003
3001.0004121300001
3012-.5001501300000
3001.000001310000
2000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals3819116.1643826373214967

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MICH · USF 5

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 4 MICHUSF 5

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 MICHUSF 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 MICHUSF 4

Bars above the line = South Fla. leads, below = Michigan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Michigan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%9/15
59%10/17
2
64%7/11
22%2/9
3
70%7/10
36%4/11
4
50%7/14
46%6/13
5
75%6/8
33%3/9
6
55%6/11
60%9/15
All
61%42/69
46%34/74

South Fla.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%8/16
33%4/12
2
58%7/12
50%8/16
3
58%7/12
0%0/7
4
67%6/9
56%9/16
5
43%6/14
33%3/9
6
55%6/11
33%3/9
All
54%40/74
39%27/69

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

143 rallies

#MICH-USFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0USFMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.0
21-1MICHUSFServe errMichigan+1.1
32-1USFMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.0
42-2MICHUSFServe errMichigan+1.1
53-2USFMICHServe errSouth Fla.+1.1
63-3MICHUSF×5KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.2
73-4USFUSF×5BlockedLydia Johnsonblk Iyanna Garvin+1.9
83-5USFUSF×5BlockedElla Demetricianblk Iyanna Garvin+2.1
93-6USFUSF×5Attack errElla Demetrician+2.2
103-7USFUSF×5BlockedElla Demetricianblk Iyanna Garvin+2.2
114-7USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.3
124-8MICHUSFKillLaila Iveyset Emelyn Stettin+1.6
135-8USFMICH×4KillSydney Schnichelsset Ella Demetrician+1.3
146-8MICHMICH×4Attack errMora Pampin+2.1
157-8MICHMICH×4Bad setMora Pampin+2.1
168-8MICHMICH×4BlockedEmelyn Stettinblk Sydney Schnichels+2.1
178-9MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Emelyn Stettin+1.6
188-10USFUSFAceSouth Fla.aced Ella Demetrician+2.4
199-10USFMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+1.5
209-11MICHUSF×3KillLaila Iveyset Sofija Djordjevic+1.8
219-12USFUSF×3KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.6
229-13USFUSF×3KillMora Pampinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.6
2310-13USFMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.4
2410-14MICHUSFKillAmelia Wass de Czegeset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.8
2510-15USFUSFBlockedCymarah Gordonblk Amelia Wass de Czege, Addy Brus+2.4
2611-15USFMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.2
2712-15MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.1
2812-16MICHUSFServe errMichigan+1.9
2913-16USFMICH×4KillJenna Hanesset Morgan Burke+1.4
3014-16MICHMICH×4Bad setAddy Brus+2.5
3115-16MICHMICH×4KillElla Demetricianset Lydia Johnson+2.8
3216-16MICHMICH×4Attack errIyanna Garvin+3.0
3316-17MICHUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.3
3417-17USFMICHServe errSouth Fla.+2.1
3517-18MICHUSFAttack errElla Demetrician+2.4
3617-19USFUSFAceSouth Fla.aced Sydney Schnichels+3.8
3718-19USFMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+2.1
3819-19MICHMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Ella Demetrician+3.6
3919-20MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Emelyn Stettin+2.9
4020-20USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+2.6
4121-20MICHMICHBlockedLaila Iveyblk Sydney Schnichels, Ece Senyapici+4.1
4221-21MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Emelyn Stettin+2.8
4322-21USFMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+3.1
4422-22MICHUSFServe errMichigan+3.1
4523-22USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+3.6
4623-23MICHUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+3.6
4724-23USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+4.5
4824-24MICHUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+4.5
4925-24USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+4.5
5026-24MICHMICHAttack errMora Pampin+5.7
Set 2
11-0MICHMICH×3KillEce Senyapiciset Sofija Djordjevic+1.1
22-0MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced Addy Brus+1.0
33-0MICHMICH×3BlockedMora Pampinblk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici+0.9
43-1MICHUSF×4BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Amelia Wass de Czege+0.6
53-2USFUSF×4KillPaula Tomasaset Sofija Djordjevic+1.0
63-3USFUSF×4Attack errCymarah Gordon+1.2
73-4USFUSF×4Attack errEce Senyapici+1.4
84-4USFMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.9
94-5MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.0
105-5USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.9
115-6MICHUSF×4KillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.0
125-7USFUSF×4Attack errCymarah Gordon+1.6
135-8USFUSF×4BlockedElla Demetricianblk Paula Tomasa, Iyanna Garvin+1.7
145-9USFUSF×4BlockedElla Demetricianblk Iyanna Garvin, Paula Tomasa+1.7
156-9USFMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.9
166-10MICHUSFServe errMichigan+1.2
176-11USFUSFKillAddy Brusset Emelyn Stettin+1.6
187-11USFMICHKillJenna Hanesset Emelyn Stettin+0.9
197-12MICHUSFAttack errJenna Hanes+1.2
208-12USFMICHServe errSouth Fla.+0.9
219-12MICHMICHAttack errMora Pampin+1.5
229-13MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Emelyn Stettin+1.3
239-14USFUSFKillLaila Iveyset Emelyn Stettin+1.7
2410-14USFMICH×5Serve errSouth Fla.+0.9
2511-14MICHMICH×5Attack errLaila Ivey+1.5
2612-14MICHMICH×5BlockedAmelia Wass de Czegeblk Ece Senyapici, Cymarah Gordon+1.7
2713-14MICHMICH×5KillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+1.9
2814-14MICHMICH×5KillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+1.9
2914-15MICHUSFServe errMichigan+1.5
3014-16USFUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+2.3
3115-16USFMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.3
3216-16MICHMICHAceMichiganaced Paula Tomasa+2.1
3316-17MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.6
3417-17USFMICHServe errSouth Fla.+1.5
3517-18MICHUSFAttack errElla Demetrician+1.8
3618-18USFMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.6
3719-18MICHMICHAttack errPaula Tomasa+2.4
3819-19MICHUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.7
3920-19USFMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+1.7
4021-19MICHMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Meredith Martin+2.3
4121-20MICHUSFKillAddy Brusset Emelyn Stettin+1.4
4222-20USFMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+1.7
4323-20MICHMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+1.8
4423-21MICHUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Sofija Djordjevic+0.7
4523-22USFUSFKillMora Pampinset Amelia Wass de Czege+2.0
4624-22USFMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+2.2
4724-23MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+1.2
4825-23USFMICHAttack errPaula Tomasa+2.7
Set 3
11-0USFMICHAttack errPaula Tomasa+0.4
22-0MICHMICHAttack errAmelia Wass de Czege+0.5
32-1MICHUSFServe errMichigan+0.4
43-1USFMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.4
54-1MICHMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.5
65-1MICHMICH×3KillJenna Hanesset Morgan Burke+0.4
75-2MICHUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.3
86-2USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.3
97-2MICHMICHAttack errAddy Brus+0.3
107-3MICHUSF×3KillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.2
117-4USFUSF×3KillAddy Brusset Emelyn Stettin+0.4
127-5USFUSF×3Attack errLydia Johnson+0.5
138-5USFMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.3
148-6MICHUSFKillIyanna Garvinset Emelyn Stettin+0.3
158-7USFUSFKillMora Pampinset Emelyn Stettin+0.6
169-7USFMICHAttack errMora Pampin+0.4
179-8MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Emelyn Stettin+0.4
1810-8USFMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Camille Edwards+0.4
1910-9MICHUSFKillMora Pampinset Emelyn Stettin+0.5
2011-9USFMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+0.5
2111-10MICHUSF×4Serve errMichigan+0.5
2211-11USFUSF×4BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Amelia Wass de Czege, Addy Brus+0.8
2311-12USFUSF×4KillAddy Brusset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.9
2411-13USFUSF×4BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Addy Brus, Amelia Wass de Czege+1.0
2512-13USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.6
2613-13MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.0
2713-14MICHUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.7
2814-14USFMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.7
2915-14MICHMICHAttack errAddy Brus+1.0
3015-15MICHUSFKillPaula Tomasaset Nina Jioshvili-Ravva+0.7
3116-15USFMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+0.7
3217-15MICHMICHAceMichiganaced Miya Thomas+0.9
3317-16MICHUSFKillAddy Brusset Emelyn Stettin+0.6
3418-16USFMICH×4KillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.6
3519-16MICHMICH×4Attack errMora Pampin+0.8
3620-16MICHMICH×4Attack errMora Pampin+0.6
3721-16MICHMICH×4Attack errIyanna Garvin+0.3
3821-17MICHUSF×3Serve errMichigan+0.1
3921-18USFUSF×3KillMora Pampinset Emelyn Stettin+0.3
4021-19USFUSF×3KillMora Pampinset Sofija Djordjevic+0.6
4122-19USFMICH×3Serve errSouth Fla.+0.6
4223-19MICHMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.5
4324-19MICHMICH×3KillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+0.2
4424-20MICHUSFAttack errSydney Schnichels·
4525-20USFMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Michigan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).