FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeAMERICAN

Michigan def. South Fla. 3–0

(26-24, 25-23, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MICH	26	25	25	3
USF	24	23	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

USF above 50 · MICH below

Biggest swing: 5.1% to Michigan — set 1, MICH 26-24 USF. Attack error by Mora Pampin. USF win probability 13% → 8%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MICH 85.8%14.2% USF

Michigan wins

3-0

38.1%

3-1

31.4%

3-2

16.3%

South Fla. wins

3-0

2.1%

3-1

4.5%

3-2

7.6%

MICH break %: 44.6% vs this opp
USF break %: 36.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Mora PampinAttack error+5.1%
Attack error by Mora Pampin
Set 1 · MICH 26-24 USF · MICH 87% → 92%
02
Ella DemetricianKill+4.1%
Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Meredith Martin)
Set 1 · MICH 24-23 USF · MICH 83% → 87%
03
Paula TomasaKill+4.1%
Kill by Paula Tomasa (set by Nina Jioshvili-Ravva)
Set 1 · MICH 24-24 USF · USF 13% → 17%
04
Ella DemetricianKill+4.1%
Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Meredith Martin)
Set 1 · MICH 25-24 USF · MICH 83% → 87%
05
Laila IveyAttack error+3.7%
Laila Ivey stuffed by Sydney Schnichels & Ece Senyapici
Set 1 · MICH 21-20 USF · MICH 82% → 86%
06
USF serverAce+3.5%
South Fla. ace on Sydney Schnichels
Set 1 · MICH 17-19 USF · USF 19% → 23%
07
Lydia JohnsonKill+3.3%
Kill by Lydia Johnson (set by Ella Demetrician)
Set 1 · MICH 19-19 USF · MICH 79% → 82%
08
Ella DemetricianKill+3.3%
Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Morgan Burke)
Set 1 · MICH 23-22 USF · MICH 83% → 87%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Michiganaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Ella DemetricianOH	3	14	7	38	.184	2	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	15
22Sydney SchnichelsOH	3	11	1	20	.500	0	1	3	8	1	1	1	1.5	13.5
3Cymarah GordonOPP	3	10	6	28	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	11
12Jenna HanesMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0	4
4Ece SenyapiciMB	3	2	1	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
7Morgan BurkeS	3	0	0	1	.000	26	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
5Lydia JohnsonOPP	3	5	2	14	.214	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	5
16Camille EdwardsS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	0
13Meredith MartinL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	11	0	0	0	0	0
10Carly GreskovicsL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		46	18	113	.248	44	3	9	43	2	1	6	4	76

South Fla.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Mora PampinOH	3	14	7	30	.233	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14
1Paula TomasaOH	3	13	3	25	.400	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	1	14
12Addy BrusOH	3	6	2	24	.167	0	1	1	5	1	0	5	2.5	9.5
11Iyanna GarvinMB	3	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	3	4
15Amelia Wass de CzegeMB	3	1	2	6	-.167	1	0	1	1	0	1	3	2.5	3.5
5Nina Jioshvili-RavvaS	3	0	0	3	.000	18	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0
2Laila IveyOH	3	3	2	19	.053	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
7Sofija DjordjevicL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	1	2	13	0	0	0	0	1
19Emelyn StettinS	3	0	1	2	-.500	15	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
3Miya ThomasL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	0
17Ryelle RondoL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Anne PerezMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		38	19	116	.164	38	2	6	37	3	2	14	9	67

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 MICH · USF 5

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 4 MICHUSF 5

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 MICHUSF 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 MICHUSF 4

Bars above the line = South Fla. leads, below = Michigan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Michigan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	59%10/17
2	64%7/11	22%2/9
3	70%7/10	36%4/11
4	50%7/14	46%6/13
5	75%6/8	33%3/9
6	55%6/11	60%9/15
All	61%42/69	46%34/74

South Fla.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	33%4/12
2	58%7/12	50%8/16
3	58%7/12	0%0/7
4	67%6/9	56%9/16
5	43%6/14	33%3/9
6	55%6/11	33%3/9
All	54%40/74	39%27/69

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

143 rallies

Rally log

#	MICH-USF	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	USF	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.9
2	1-1	MICH	USF	Serve err	MICH server		+1.0
3	2-1	USF	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.9
4	2-2	MICH	USF	Serve err	MICH server		+1.0
5	3-2	USF	MICH	Serve err	USF server		+1.0
6	3-3	MICH	USF×5	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.1
7	3-4	USF	USF×5	Attack err	Lydia Johnson	blk Iyanna Garvin	+1.7
8	3-5	USF	USF×5	Attack err	Ella Demetrician	blk Iyanna Garvin	+1.9
9	3-6	USF	USF×5	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+2.0
10	3-7	USF	USF×5	Attack err	Ella Demetrician	blk Iyanna Garvin	+2.1
11	4-7	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+1.2
12	4-8	MICH	USF	Kill	Laila Ivey	set Emelyn Stettin	+1.5
13	5-8	USF	MICH×4	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Ella Demetrician	+1.2
14	6-8	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+1.9
15	7-8	MICH	MICH×4	Bad set	Mora Pampin		+1.9
16	8-8	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Emelyn Stettin	blk Sydney Schnichels	+1.9
17	8-9	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+1.4
18	8-10	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Ella Demetrician	+2.2
19	9-10	USF	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+1.4
20	9-11	MICH	USF×3	Kill	Laila Ivey	set Sofija Djordjevic	+1.6
21	9-12	USF	USF×3	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+2.4
22	9-13	USF	USF×3	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+2.4
23	10-13	USF	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.3
24	10-14	MICH	USF	Kill	Amelia Wass de Czege	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.7
25	10-15	USF	USF	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon	blk Amelia Wass de Czege, Addy Brus	+2.3
26	11-15	USF	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.1
27	12-15	MICH	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+2.0
28	12-16	MICH	USF	Serve err	MICH server		+1.8
29	13-16	USF	MICH×4	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Morgan Burke	+1.3
30	14-16	MICH	MICH×4	Bad set	Addy Brus		+2.4
31	15-16	MICH	MICH×4	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Lydia Johnson	+2.6
32	16-16	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Iyanna Garvin		+2.7
33	16-17	MICH	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+2.1
34	17-17	USF	MICH	Serve err	USF server		+1.9
35	17-18	MICH	USF	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+2.3
36	17-19	USF	USF	Ace	USF server	aced Sydney Schnichels	+3.5
37	18-19	USF	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Camille Edwards	+2.0
38	19-19	MICH	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Ella Demetrician	+3.3
39	19-20	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+2.7
40	20-20	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+2.4
41	21-20	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Laila Ivey	blk Sydney Schnichels, Ece Senyapici	+3.7
42	21-21	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+2.6
43	22-21	USF	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Morgan Burke	+2.8
44	22-22	MICH	USF	Serve err	MICH server		+2.9
45	23-22	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+3.3
46	23-23	MICH	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+3.3
47	24-23	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Meredith Martin	+4.1
48	24-24	MICH	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+4.1
49	25-24	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Meredith Martin	+4.1
50	26-24	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+5.1
Set 2
1	1-0	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Ece Senyapici	set Sofija Djordjevic	+1.0
2	2-0	MICH	MICH×3	Ace	MICH server	aced Addy Brus	+0.9
3	3-0	MICH	MICH×3	Attack err	Mora Pampin	blk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici	+0.8
4	3-1	MICH	USF×4	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon	blk Amelia Wass de Czege	+0.5
5	3-2	USF	USF×4	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Sofija Djordjevic	+0.9
6	3-3	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon		+1.1
7	3-4	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Ece Senyapici		+1.2
8	4-4	USF	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.8
9	4-5	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.9
10	5-5	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.8
11	5-6	MICH	USF×4	Kill	Addy Brus	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.9
12	5-7	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon		+1.4
13	5-8	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Ella Demetrician	blk Paula Tomasa, Iyanna Garvin	+1.5
14	5-9	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Ella Demetrician	blk Iyanna Garvin, Paula Tomasa	+1.5
15	6-9	USF	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.9
16	6-10	MICH	USF	Serve err	MICH server		+1.1
17	6-11	USF	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Emelyn Stettin	+1.5
18	7-11	USF	MICH	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.8
19	7-12	MICH	USF	Attack err	Jenna Hanes		+1.1
20	8-12	USF	MICH	Serve err	USF server		+0.8
21	9-12	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+1.4
22	9-13	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+1.2
23	9-14	USF	USF	Kill	Laila Ivey	set Emelyn Stettin	+1.6
24	10-14	USF	MICH×5	Serve err	USF server		+0.8
25	11-14	MICH	MICH×5	Attack err	Laila Ivey		+1.4
26	12-14	MICH	MICH×5	Attack err	Amelia Wass de Czege	blk Ece Senyapici, Cymarah Gordon	+1.6
27	13-14	MICH	MICH×5	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Morgan Burke	+1.7
28	14-14	MICH	MICH×5	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Morgan Burke	+1.7
29	14-15	MICH	USF	Serve err	MICH server		+1.3
30	14-16	USF	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+2.1
31	15-16	USF	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.2
32	16-16	MICH	MICH	Ace	MICH server	aced Paula Tomasa	+1.9
33	16-17	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.5
34	17-17	USF	MICH	Serve err	USF server		+1.3
35	17-18	MICH	USF	Attack err	Ella Demetrician		+1.6
36	18-18	USF	MICH	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+1.4
37	19-18	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+2.1
38	19-19	MICH	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.5
39	20-19	USF	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+1.5
40	21-19	MICH	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Meredith Martin	+2.0
41	21-20	MICH	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Emelyn Stettin	+1.2
42	22-20	USF	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+1.5
43	23-20	MICH	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Camille Edwards	+1.5
44	23-21	MICH	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Sofija Djordjevic	+0.6
45	23-22	USF	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Amelia Wass de Czege	+1.7
46	24-22	USF	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Camille Edwards	+1.9
47	24-23	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+1.1
48	25-23	USF	MICH	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+2.4
Set 3
1	1-0	USF	MICH	Attack err	Paula Tomasa		+0.3
2	2-0	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Amelia Wass de Czege		+0.4
3	2-1	MICH	USF	Serve err	MICH server		+0.3
4	3-1	USF	MICH×3	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.3
5	4-1	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.4
6	5-1	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Morgan Burke	+0.3
7	5-2	MICH	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.2
8	6-2	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.2
9	7-2	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Addy Brus		+0.3
10	7-3	MICH	USF×3	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.2
11	7-4	USF	USF×3	Kill	Addy Brus	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.3
12	7-5	USF	USF×3	Attack err	Lydia Johnson		+0.4
13	8-5	USF	MICH	Kill	Lydia Johnson	set Camille Edwards	+0.3
14	8-6	MICH	USF	Kill	Iyanna Garvin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.3
15	8-7	USF	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.5
16	9-7	USF	MICH	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+0.4
17	9-8	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.4
18	10-8	USF	MICH	Kill	Ece Senyapici	set Camille Edwards	+0.4
19	10-9	MICH	USF	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.4
20	11-9	USF	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Morgan Burke	+0.4
21	11-10	MICH	USF×4	Serve err	MICH server		+0.4
22	11-11	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon	blk Amelia Wass de Czege, Addy Brus	+0.7
23	11-12	USF	USF×4	Kill	Addy Brus	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.8
24	11-13	USF	USF×4	Attack err	Cymarah Gordon	blk Addy Brus, Amelia Wass de Czege	+0.9
25	12-13	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.5
26	13-13	MICH	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.8
27	13-14	MICH	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.6
28	14-14	USF	MICH	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Morgan Burke	+0.6
29	15-14	MICH	MICH	Attack err	Addy Brus		+0.8
30	15-15	MICH	USF	Kill	Paula Tomasa	set Nina Jioshvili-Ravva	+0.6
31	16-15	USF	MICH	Kill	Jenna Hanes	set Camille Edwards	+0.6
32	17-15	MICH	MICH	Ace	MICH server	aced Miya Thomas	+0.8
33	17-16	MICH	USF	Kill	Addy Brus	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.5
34	18-16	USF	MICH×4	Kill	Ella Demetrician	set Camille Edwards	+0.5
35	19-16	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+0.7
36	20-16	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Mora Pampin		+0.5
37	21-16	MICH	MICH×4	Attack err	Iyanna Garvin		+0.3
38	21-17	MICH	USF×3	Serve err	MICH server		+0.1
39	21-18	USF	USF×3	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Emelyn Stettin	+0.3
40	21-19	USF	USF×3	Kill	Mora Pampin	set Sofija Djordjevic	+0.5
41	22-19	USF	MICH×3	Serve err	USF server		+0.5
42	23-19	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Cymarah Gordon	set Morgan Burke	+0.4
43	24-19	MICH	MICH×3	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Morgan Burke	+0.2
44	24-20	MICH	USF	Attack err	Sydney Schnichels		+0.0
45	25-20	USF	MICH	Kill	Sydney Schnichels	set Morgan Burke	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Michigan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.