Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on BTN

Michigan def. Southern California 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Southern California 56.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 9:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Michigan won at Southern California 3-1 (25-22, 18-25, 25-23, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Michigan's Ella Demetrician led with 17 kills.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
MICH251825253
USC222523231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Down 2–6 in the first, Michigan took the set, dropped the second, and won the match 3–1.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Michigan's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Southern California went in at 56% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Michigan 22–22 Southern California

    Michigan won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 25–23 and lead 2–1. The match swung to Michigan.

    Michigan 45% → 73%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Michigan 7–9 Southern California

    6 straight Michigan points turned a 7–9 deficit into a 13–9 lead.

    Michigan 64% → 90%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Michigan 22–22 Southern California

    Michigan closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 25–23 and win the match 3–1.

    Michigan 75% → >99%

Southern California above 50Michigan belowMax swing 14.2%

MichiganSouthern California

Sideout %
Michigan 63.8·Southern California 64.1
Break %
Michigan 35.9·Southern California 36.2
Hitting
Michigan .245·Southern California .277
Longest run
Michigan 6·Southern California 5

Cymarah Gordon
3 of her kills came in the stretches above. 16 K, .333, 18 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern California above 50 · Michigan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+14.2% MICHrally 186 · set 4

Biggest swing: 14.2% to Michigan — set 3, MICH 25-23 USC. Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Camille Edwards). USC win probability 42% → 27%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MICH 57.7%42.3% USC

Michigan wins

3-0
16.0%
3-1
21.9%
3-2
19.7%

Southern California wins

3-0
9.6%
3-1
15.6%
3-2
17.2%
MICH break %
40.0% vs this opp
USC break %
38.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Camille Edwards)

    Set 3 · MICH 25-23 USC · MICH 58% → 73%

  2. 02

    Abigail Mullen stuffed by Jenna Hanes & Ella Demetrician

    Set 4 · MICH 24-22 USC · MICH 83% → 94%

  3. 03
    Jenna HanesKill+11.2%

    Kill by Jenna Hanes (set by Morgan Burke)

    Set 3 · MICH 23-22 USC · MICH 45% → 56%

  4. 04
    Lydia JohnsonKill+9.8%

    Kill by Lydia Johnson (set by Camille Edwards)

    Set 4 · MICH 25-23 USC · MICH 90% → 100%

  5. 05

    Ella Demetrician stuffed by Abigail Mullen & Leah Ford

    Set 3 · MICH 21-22 USC · USC 52% → 61%

  6. 06

    Kill by Cymarah Gordon (set by Morgan Burke)

    Set 3 · MICH 24-23 USC · MICH 49% → 58%

  7. 07
    Leah FordBlock+8.5%

    Ece Senyapici stuffed by Leah Ford

    Set 4 · MICH 21-21 USC · USC 17% → 25%

  8. 08

    Kill by Ella Demetrician (set by Morgan Burke)

    Set 3 · MICH 21-20 USC · MICH 45% → 54%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417946.174020132010.519.5
416533.3330002004218
49215.46700010010.59.5
46113.385000100639
45319.10510361111.56.5
4011-1.0003321500002
47315.267000400218
4011-1.0001812200001
4000–113100001
4000–000400000
4000–4011110000
Team totals6025143.245576105041158.593
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413628.2501118004216
411319.42110120132.513.5
49537.10801152111.511.5
410329.24100012031.511.5
47012.5830002016411
31011.0001322000003
4314.500330020010.53.5
4000–100000000
4000–003910000
4000–2011410000
2000–000000000
Team totals5418130.27751494363181293

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MICH · USC 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 3 MICHUSC 4

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 2 MICHUSC 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 5 MICHUSC 4

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 6 MICHUSC 3

Bars above the line = Southern California leads, below = Michigan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Michigan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
47%9/19
2
61%11/18
29%5/17
3
55%11/20
42%8/19
4
71%10/14
29%4/14
5
67%8/12
43%6/14
6
62%8/13
11%1/9
All
64%60/94
36%33/92

Southern California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
29%4/14
2
73%11/15
42%8/19
3
61%11/18
45%9/20
4
60%9/15
39%7/18
5
73%8/11
25%3/12
6
57%8/14
27%3/11
All
64%59/92
36%34/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

186 rallies

#MICH-USCSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MICHUSCServe errMichigan+1.7
21-1USCMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+1.7
31-2MICHUSCServe errMichigan+1.7
42-2USCMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke+1.7
52-3MICHUSC×4Serve errMichigan+1.8
62-4USCUSC×4KillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.7
72-5USCUSC×4KillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+2.5
82-6USCUSC×4KillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+2.3
93-6USCMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+1.3
104-6MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced London Wijay+2.4
115-6MICHMICH×3Attack errMilly McGee+2.7
125-7MICHUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+1.8
136-7USCMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+1.8
147-7MICHMICHAttack errMia Tvrdy+3.0
157-8MICHUSCAttack errSydney Schnichels+2.0
168-8USCMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.0
178-9MICHUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+2.1
188-10USCUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Lilli Etter+3.1
199-10USCMICHServe errSouthern California+1.9
2010-10MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Sydney Schnichels+3.3
2110-11MICHUSCKillLeah Fordset Lilli Etter+2.2
2211-11USCMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+2.2
2311-12MICHUSCKillLeah Fordset Lilli Etter+2.3
2412-12USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.3
2512-13MICHUSCServe errMichigan+2.4
2613-13USCMICHBlockedLondon Wijayblk Jenna Hanes, Cymarah Gordon+2.4
2713-14MICHUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.5
2814-14USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+2.5
2914-15MICHUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.6
3014-16USCUSCAttack errCamille Edwards+3.9
3115-16USCMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.3
3215-17MICHUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+2.6
3315-18USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Sydney Schnichels+3.6
3416-18USCMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Camille Edwards+1.9
3517-18MICHMICHBlockedAdonia Faumuinablk Sydney Schnichels+3.8
3617-19MICHUSCKillLeah Fordset Lilli Etter+3.0
3718-19USCMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke+2.6
3819-19MICHMICHAttack errAbigail Mullen+5.0
3919-20MICHUSCBlockedElla Demetricianblk Abigail Mullen, Leah Ford+3.6
4020-20USCMICHServe errSouthern California+3.5
4121-20MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+6.3
4221-21MICHUSCServe errMichigan+3.9
4322-21USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+4.6
4422-22MICHUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+4.4
4523-22USCMICH×3Attack errMia Tvrdy+5.5
4624-22MICHMICH×3Attack errAdonia Faumuina+8.0
4725-22MICHMICH×3BlockedAdonia Faumuinablk Lydia Johnson, Jenna Hanes+4.2
Set 2
11-0USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.8
21-1MICHUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Lilli Etter+1.8
32-1USCMICHServe errSouthern California+1.9
43-1MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Hannah Brady+2.9
53-2MICHUSC×5KillAbigail Mullenset Lilli Etter+1.8
63-3USCUSC×5KillMia Tvrdy+2.9
73-4USCUSC×5KillAbigail Mullenset Lilli Etter+3.0
83-5USCUSC×5Attack errCymarah Gordon+2.9
93-6USCUSC×5BlockedCymarah Gordonblk London Wijay+2.7
104-6USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.6
114-7MICHUSCServe errMichigan+1.8
125-7USCMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+1.7
135-8MICHUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+1.8
145-9USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Meredith Martin+2.6
156-9USCMICHBlockedLondon Wijayblk Jenna Hanes, Sydney Schnichels, Lydia Johnson+1.4
166-10MICHUSC×3KillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+1.7
176-11USCUSC×3KillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+2.2
186-12USCUSC×3Attack errLydia Johnson+1.7
197-12USCMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Meredith Martin+0.9
207-13MICHUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+1.1
217-14USCUSCKillLilli Etterset Taylor Deckert+1.3
228-14USCMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke+0.6
239-14MICHMICHBlockedAbigail Mullenblk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici+1.2
249-15MICHUSCBlockedElla Demetricianblk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford+1.1
2510-15USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.8
2611-15MICHMICHAttack errAbigail Mullen+1.7
2711-16MICHUSCKillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+1.4
2812-16USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.1
2912-17MICHUSC×4KillAbigail Mullenset Lilli Etter+1.4
3012-18USCUSC×4AceSouthern Californiaaced Ella Demetrician+1.5
3112-19USCUSC×4KillMilly McGeeset Carly Greskovics+0.9
3212-20USCUSC×4KillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+0.5
3313-20USCMICHServe errSouthern California+0.1
3414-20MICHMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+0.4
3514-21MICHUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+0.5
3614-22USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+0.3
3715-22USCMICHServe errSouthern California+0.1
3815-23MICHUSCBlockedElla Demetricianblk Mia Tvrdy+0.1
3916-23USCMICHServe errSouthern California·
4016-24MICHUSCKillMilly McGeeset Taylor Deckert+0.1
4117-24USCMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke·
4218-24MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke·
4318-25MICHUSCAttack errElla Demetrician+0.1
Set 3
11-0MICHMICHKillEce Senyapici+3.6
22-0MICHMICHAceMichiganaced Adonia Faumuina+3.6
32-1MICHUSCKillLondon Wijayset Lilli Etter+2.2
43-1USCMICHServe errSouthern California+2.4
53-2MICHUSCServe errMichigan+2.3
63-3USCUSCAttack errElla Demetrician+3.7
74-3USCMICH×5Serve errSouthern California+2.5
85-3MICHMICH×5AceMichiganaced Taylor Deckert+3.8
96-3MICHMICH×5BlockedLondon Wijayblk Jenna Hanes, Cymarah Gordon+3.7
107-3MICHMICH×5KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+3.5
118-3MICHMICH×5BlockedLondon Wijayblk Cymarah Gordon, Jenna Hanes+3.1
128-4MICHUSCAttack errJenna Hanes+1.7
139-4USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.0
149-5MICHUSCAttack errLydia Johnson+1.7
1510-5USCMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.0
1610-6MICHUSCAttack errSydney Schnichels+1.7
1711-6USCMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+2.1
1812-6MICHMICHAttack errMia Tvrdy+2.6
1912-7MICHUSCBlockedElla Demetricianblk Mia Tvrdy, Adonia Faumuina+1.3
2013-7USCMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+1.7
2113-8MICHUSC×4KillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+1.2
2213-9USCUSC×4BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Abigail Mullen, Leah Ford+2.5
2313-10USCUSC×4KillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+3.2
2413-11USCUSC×4AceSouthern Californiaaced Ella Demetrician+3.9
2514-11USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+3.0
2614-12MICHUSCServe errMichigan+2.5
2714-13USCUSCAttack errElla Demetrician+4.6
2815-13USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+3.4
2915-14MICHUSCServe errMichigan+3.1
3016-14USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+3.6
3116-15MICHUSCServe errMichigan+3.2
3217-15USCMICHKillJenna Hanesset Taylor Deckert+3.7
3317-16MICHUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+3.3
3418-16USCMICHAttack errAbigail Mullen+4.0
3518-17MICHUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+3.4
3618-18USCUSCKillMilly McGeeset Mia Tvrdy+6.3
3719-18USCMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+4.5
3819-19MICHUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+4.4
3919-20USCUSCAttack errMorgan Burke+7.4
4020-20USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+4.7
4121-20MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+8.4
4221-21MICHUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+5.2
4321-22USCUSCBlockedElla Demetricianblk Abigail Mullen, Leah Ford+9.3
4422-22USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+5.8
4523-22MICHMICHKillJenna Hanesset Morgan Burke+11.2
4623-23MICHUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Lilli Etter+6.8
4724-23USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+9.0
4825-23MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+14.2
Set 4
11-0USCMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+2.4
21-1MICHUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Abigail Mullen+2.4
31-2USCUSCAttack errEce Senyapici+3.8
42-2USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+2.4
52-3MICHUSC×3KillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+2.5
62-4USCUSC×3KillLondon Wijayset Addison Townsend+3.8
72-5USCUSC×3BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Mia Tvrdy, London Wijay+3.6
83-5USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.1
93-6MICHUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+2.3
103-7USCUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+3.3
114-7USCMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.9
125-7MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced Paisley Douglas+3.4
136-7MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced London Wijay+3.9
146-8MICHUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+2.7
157-8USCMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+2.6
167-9MICHUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.8
178-9USCMICH×6KillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.6
189-9MICHMICH×6AceMichiganaced Adonia Faumuina+4.5
1910-9MICHMICH×6KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+4.7
2011-9MICHMICH×6Attack errAbigail Mullen+4.8
2112-9MICHMICH×6KillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke+4.5
2213-9MICHMICH×6KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+4.1
2313-10MICHUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+2.2
2414-10USCMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke+2.7
2514-11MICHUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+2.2
2614-12USCUSCBlockedElla Demetricianblk Leah Ford, Abigail Mullen+4.1
2715-12USCMICHServe errSouthern California+3.2
2815-13MICHUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+2.7
2916-13USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+3.3
3016-14MICHUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.8
3117-14USCMICHAttack errLondon Wijay+3.5
3217-15MICHUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.8
3317-16USCUSCBlockedLydia Johnsonblk Adonia Faumuina, Mia Tvrdy+5.4
3418-16USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+4.2
3518-17MICHUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+3.6
3619-17USCMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Camille Edwards+4.4
3719-18MICHUSCBlockedSydney Schnichelsblk Milly McGee, Leah Ford+3.8
3820-18USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+4.8
3921-18MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+6.2
4021-19MICHUSC×3KillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+2.8
4121-20USCUSC×3Attack errCymarah Gordon+6.4
4221-21USCUSC×3BlockedEce Senyapiciblk Leah Ford+8.5
4322-21USCMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+6.5
4422-22MICHUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+6.2
4523-22USCMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+7.7
4624-22MICHMICHBlockedAbigail Mullenblk Jenna Hanes, Ella Demetrician+11.3
4724-23MICHUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+3.8
4825-23USCMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+9.8

Score shown after each rally, Michigan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).