Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on B1G+

Michigan def. Iowa 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Michigan 80.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Michigan beat visiting Iowa 3-1 (25-17, 25-22, 23-25, 25-13) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Michigan's Ella Demetrician led with 17 kills.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set1234Sets
IOWA172225131
MICH252523253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Michigan outhit Iowa .376 to .205.

Win probability never moved more than 3.6 points on one rally; Iowa topped out at 20% in Set 1. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Michigan at 80%.

IowaMichigan
  • Break %+14.6 pts
    30.845.4

    44 of 97 on serve vs 24 of 78, so Iowa's sideout was 54.6%.

  • Hitting+.171
    .205.376

    60 kills, 13 errors vs 50 kills, 24 errors.

  • Longest run+1
    56

    Michigan scored 6 straight in the fourth set to stretch a 4–2 lead to 10–2. Final score of the set: 25–13.

Michigan above 50Iowa belowMax swing 3.6%

IowaMichigan

Aces
Iowa 2·Michigan 4
Serve err
Iowa 10·Michigan 11
Blocks
Iowa 6·Michigan 15.53 BS · 6 BA vs 5 BS · 21 BA
Digs
Iowa 38·Michigan 45

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Michigan above 50 · Iowa below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.6% IOWArally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.6% to Iowa — set 3, IOWA 25-23 MICH. Attack error by Sydney Schnichels. MICH win probability 93% → 89%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

IOWA 15.5%84.5% MICH

Iowa wins

3-0
2.3%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
8.2%

Michigan wins

3-0
36.5%
3-1
31.2%
3-2
16.8%
IOWA break %
36.6% vs this opp
MICH break %
44.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sydney SchnichelsAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Sydney Schnichels

    Set 3 · IOWA 25-23 MICH · IOWA 7% → 11%

  2. 02
    Rosa VestyKill+2.7%

    Kill by Rosa Vesty (set by Jaimie Marquardt)

    Set 2 · IOWA 19-19 MICH · IOWA 9% → 12%

  3. 03

    Kill by Sydney Schnichels (set by Morgan Burke)

    Set 2 · IOWA 19-21 MICH · MICH 90% → 93%

  4. 04
    Rosa VestyKill+2.5%

    Kill by Rosa Vesty (set by Jenna Meitzler)

    Set 3 · IOWA 23-22 MICH · IOWA 4% → 7%

  5. 05
    Liv MogridgeKill+2.1%

    Kill by Liv Mogridge (set by Jenna Meitzler)

    Set 1 · IOWA 8-8 MICH · IOWA 18% → 20%

  6. 06

    Kill by Sydney Schnichels (set by Ella Demetrician)

    Set 1 · IOWA 10-12 MICH · MICH 82% → 84%

  7. 07
    Ksenija TomicKill+2.1%

    Kill by Ksenija Tomic (set by Jenna Meitzler)

    Set 3 · IOWA 24-23 MICH · IOWA 5% → 7%

  8. 08

    Rosa Vesty stuffed by Ece Senyapici & Sydney Schnichels

    Set 2 · IOWA 19-22 MICH · MICH 93% → 95%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Iowaaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412431.2580238100014
4101026.0000001102111
48224.25020010111.59.5
47419.158100001229
48321.23810100010.58.5
4516.6673601601016
4000–101700000
4000–3001010000
4000–104510000
1000–000000000
Team totals5024127.2054521038436677
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417336.389213121111.519.5
416130.5000002006319
412224.4170037012214
46111.45510100233.59.5
44310.10000010174.58.5
4000–2810600001
45213.231000100216
4011-1.0001722500002
4000–102000000
4000–5001110000
3000–000000000
Team totals6013125.3765441145252115.598

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 IOWA · MICH 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 IOWAMICH 5

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 2 IOWAMICH 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 4 IOWAMICH 5

Set 4

13-25

Longest run 5 IOWAMICH 6

Bars above the line = Michigan leads, below = Iowa leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Iowa

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
25%3/12
2
69%11/16
21%3/14
3
43%10/23
21%3/14
4
47%7/15
18%2/11
5
88%7/8
46%6/13
6
50%7/14
50%7/14
All
55%53/97
31%24/78

Michigan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
44%7/16
2
79%11/14
45%9/20
3
90%9/10
38%6/16
4
82%9/11
61%14/23
5
41%7/17
30%3/10
6
78%7/9
42%5/12
All
69%54/78
45%44/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

175 rallies

#IOWA-MICHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+1.7
20-2MICHMICHAceMichiganaced Rosa Vesty+1.6
31-2MICHIOWAKillCarmel Varesset Jenna Meitzler+1.1
41-3IOWAMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.0
52-3MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+1.1
63-3IOWAIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+1.8
73-4IOWAMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.2
83-5MICHMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+1.7
94-5MICHIOWAKillHannah Whittingstallset Jenna Meitzler+1.1
104-6IOWAMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+1.1
114-7MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+1.5
125-7MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+1.0
135-8IOWAMICHKillJenna Hanesset Jenna Meitzler+1.0
146-8MICHIOWA×3KillCarmel Varesset Allison Berent+1.0
157-8IOWAIOWA×3KillCarmel Varesset Jenna Meitzler+1.8
168-8IOWAIOWA×3KillLiv Mogridgeset Jenna Meitzler+2.1
178-9IOWAMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.4
189-9MICHIOWAKillLiv Mogridgeset Jenna Meitzler+1.5
199-10IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.4
2010-10MICHIOWAKillRosa Vestyset Jenna Meitzler+1.5
2110-11IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.5
2210-12MICHMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Ella Demetrician+2.1
2311-12MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+1.4
2411-13IOWAMICHAttack errRosa Vesty+1.4
2511-14MICHMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+1.9
2612-14MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+1.1
2712-15IOWAMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+1.3
2813-15MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+1.2
2913-16IOWAMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+1.3
3014-16MICHIOWAKillHannah Whittingstallset Jenna Meitzler+1.2
3114-17IOWAMICH×5KillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+1.4
3214-18MICHMICH×5KillEce Senyapici+1.6
3314-19MICHMICH×5Attack errJenna Meitzler+1.1
3414-20MICHMICH×5Attack errLiv Mogridge+0.6
3514-21MICHMICH×5KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.3
3615-21MICHIOWAKillCarmel Varesset Jenna Meitzler+0.1
3715-22IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.2
3816-22MICHIOWAKillRosa Vestyset Jenna Meitzler+0.1
3916-23IOWAMICHServe errIowa+0.1
4017-23MICHIOWAKillRosa Vestyset Jenna Meitzler·
4117-24IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.1
4217-25MICHMICHAceMichiganaced Jaimie Marquardt·
Set 2
11-0IOWAIOWABlockedElla Demetricianblk Carmel Vares, Liv Mogridge+1.4
22-0IOWAIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Henlee Moszkowicz+1.6
32-1IOWAMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.9
42-2MICHMICH×3BlockedKsenija Tomicblk Ece Senyapici, Cymarah Gordon+1.4
52-3MICHMICH×3KillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke+1.4
63-3MICHIOWAKillRosa Vestyset Henlee Moszkowicz+0.9
73-4IOWAMICHKillEce Senyapiciset Morgan Burke+0.9
84-4MICHIOWAKillRosa Vestyset Jenna Meitzler+1.0
94-5IOWAMICHServe errIowa+0.9
105-5MICHIOWAKillHannah Whittingstallset Jenna Meitzler+1.0
115-6IOWAMICHServe errIowa+1.0
125-7MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.3
136-7MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+0.9
146-8IOWAMICHKillJenna Hanesset Camille Edwards+0.9
157-8MICHIOWABlockedEce Senyapiciblk Jenna Meitzler+0.9
168-8IOWAIOWAKillLiv Mogridgeset Carmel Vares+1.6
178-9IOWAMICH×3Serve errIowa+1.1
188-10MICHMICH×3BlockedCarmel Varesblk Ella Demetrician+1.5
198-11MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced Ksenija Tomic+1.3
209-11MICHIOWAKillLiv Mogridgeset Jenna Meitzler+0.8
219-12IOWAMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.9
229-13MICHMICHAttack errLiv Mogridge+1.1
2310-13MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+0.6
2410-14IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.7
2510-15MICHMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Hannah Brady+0.8
2611-15MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+0.4
2711-16IOWAMICHKillJenna Hanesset Morgan Burke+0.5
2812-16MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+0.4
2913-16IOWAIOWAAttack errJenna Hanes+0.9
3013-17IOWAMICHServe errIowa+0.8
3114-17MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+0.6
3215-17IOWAIOWABlockedLydia Johnsonblk Carmel Vares+1.3
3315-18IOWAMICHServe errIowa+1.1
3416-18MICHIOWAKillCarmel Varesset Jenna Meitzler+0.9
3517-18IOWAIOWABlockedElla Demetricianblk Liv Mogridge, Rosa Vesty+1.9
3617-19IOWAMICHBlockedRosa Vestyblk Ece Senyapici, Lydia Johnson+1.5
3718-19MICHIOWAKillCarmel Varesset Jenna Meitzler+1.4
3819-19IOWAIOWAKillRosa Vestyset Jaimie Marquardt+2.7
3919-20IOWAMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.9
4019-21MICHMICH×3KillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+2.6
4119-22MICHMICH×3BlockedRosa Vestyblk Ece Senyapici, Sydney Schnichels+2.0
4220-22MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+0.9
4320-23IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.3
4421-23MICHIOWAKillHannah Whittingstallset Jenna Meitzler+0.7
4521-24IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Jenna Meitzler+1.3
4622-24MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+0.5
4722-25IOWAMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Jenna Hanes+1.1
Set 3
11-0MICHIOWAAttack errEce Senyapici+0.5
22-0IOWAIOWAKillCarmel Varesset Jenna Meitzler+0.8
32-1IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.5
42-2MICHMICHBlockedLiv Mogridgeblk Ece Senyapici+0.7
53-2MICHIOWAKillRosa Vestyset Henlee Moszkowicz+0.5
63-3IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.5
73-4MICHMICHAttack errLiv Mogridge+0.7
84-4MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+0.5
94-5IOWAMICHAttack errRosa Vesty+0.5
105-5MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+0.5
115-6IOWAMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Meredith Martin+0.5
126-6MICHIOWAKillHannah Whittingstallset Jenna Meitzler+0.5
136-7IOWAMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.5
147-7MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+0.5
157-8IOWAMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.5
167-9MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.7
178-9MICHIOWAKillJenna Meitzlerset Liv Mogridge+0.5
189-9IOWAIOWABlockedEce Senyapiciblk Liv Mogridge+0.8
199-10IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.5
2010-10MICHIOWAKillLiv Mogridgeset Jenna Meitzler+0.6
2110-11IOWAMICHServe errIowa+0.6
2211-11MICHIOWAKillLiv Mogridgeset Jenna Meitzler+0.6
2311-12IOWAMICH×5KillSydney Schnichelsset Ella Demetrician+0.6
2411-13MICHMICH×5BlockedHannah Whittingstallblk Jenna Hanes+0.8
2511-14MICHMICH×5KillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.7
2611-15MICHMICH×5BlockedRosa Vestyblk Sydney Schnichels+0.6
2711-16MICHMICH×5Attack errRosa Vesty+0.4
2812-16MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+0.2
2913-16IOWAIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Camille Edwards+0.5
3013-17IOWAMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.4
3114-17MICHIOWA×4Serve errMichigan+0.3
3215-17IOWAIOWA×4AceKsenija Tomicaced Ella Demetrician+0.7
3316-17IOWAIOWA×4KillJenna Meitzler+0.9
3417-17IOWAIOWA×4AceKsenija Tomicaced Meredith Martin+1.2
3517-18IOWAMICHAttack errHannah Whittingstall+0.8
3618-18MICHIOWAKillJenna Meitzlerset Hannah Whittingstall+0.9
3718-19IOWAMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.9
3818-20MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.2
3919-20MICHIOWAAttack errCymarah Gordon+0.7
4020-20IOWAIOWAKillRosa Vestyset Jenna Meitzler+1.5
4120-21IOWAMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.1
4220-22MICHMICHBlockedRosa Vestyblk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici+1.4
4321-22MICHIOWA×3KillRosa Vestyset Jenna Meitzler+0.8
4422-22IOWAIOWA×3Attack errElla Demetrician+1.8
4523-22IOWAIOWA×3KillRosa Vestyset Jenna Meitzler+2.5
4623-23IOWAMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+1.5
4724-23MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+2.1
4825-23IOWAIOWAAttack errSydney Schnichels+3.6
Set 4
10-1IOWAMICHBlockedRosa Vestyblk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici+1.4
20-2MICHMICHBlockedRosa Vestyblk Cymarah Gordon, Ece Senyapici+1.9
31-2MICHIOWAKillCarmel Varesset Jenna Meitzler+1.3
41-3IOWAMICHServe errIowa+1.3
51-4MICHMICHKillEce Senyapici+1.7
62-4MICHIOWAServe errMichigan+1.1
72-5IOWAMICH×6KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.2
82-6MICHMICH×6KillSydney Schnichelsset Meredith Martin+1.5
92-7MICHMICH×6BlockedKsenija Tomicblk Jenna Hanes, Cymarah Gordon+1.2
102-8MICHMICH×6KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.0
112-9MICHMICH×6KillJenna Hanes+0.7
122-10MICHMICH×6KillSydney Schnichelsset Meredith Martin+0.5
133-10MICHIOWABlockedSydney Schnichelsblk Rosa Vesty, Hannah Whittingstall+0.3
143-11IOWAMICH×3KillJenna Hanesset Morgan Burke+0.3
153-12MICHMICH×3AceMichiganaced Henlee Moszkowicz+0.3
163-13MICHMICH×3Attack errKsenija Tomic+0.2
174-13MICHIOWA×5KillJenna Meitzlerset Henlee Moszkowicz+0.1
185-13IOWAIOWA×5KillHannah Whittingstallset Jenna Meitzler+0.2
196-13IOWAIOWA×5Bad setCamille Edwards+0.3
207-13IOWAIOWA×5Attack errCamille Edwards+0.5
218-13IOWAIOWA×5Attack errLydia Johnson+0.7
228-14IOWAMICHServe errIowa+0.6
238-15MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.6
249-15MICHIOWAKillHannah Whittingstallset Jenna Meitzler+0.3
259-16IOWAMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+0.4
269-17MICHMICHBlockedCarmel Varesblk Ece Senyapici, Lydia Johnson, Ella Demetrician+0.4
2710-17MICHIOWAKillJenna Meitzlerset Carmel Vares+0.1
2810-18IOWAMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.2
2911-18MICHIOWAKillLiv Mogridgeset Jenna Meitzler+0.1
3011-19IOWAMICHServe errIowa+0.2
3112-19MICHIOWAKillKsenija Tomicset Jenna Meitzler+0.1
3212-20IOWAMICH×5KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.2
3312-21MICHMICH×5BlockedKsenija Tomicblk Cymarah Gordon, Jenna Hanes+0.1
3412-22MICHMICH×5BlockedHannah Whittingstallblk Jenna Hanes·
3512-23MICHMICH×5KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke·
3612-24MICHMICH×5BlockedRosa Vestyblk Jenna Hanes, Sydney Schnichels·
3713-24MICHIOWAKillHannah Whittingstallset Jenna Meitzler·
3813-25IOWAMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke·

Score shown after each rally, Iowa first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).