Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on B1G+

Minnesota def. Michigan 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Minnesota 79.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 6:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Minnesota beat visiting Michigan 3-1 (25-19, 20-25, 25-15, 25-21) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Kelly Kinney led Minnesota with 10 kills; Michigan's Cymarah Gordon had a match-high 15.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
MICH192515211
MINN252025253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Minnesota held Michigan to .092 hitting.

The biggest single-rally swing was 3.9 points, and Michigan's high was 30% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Minnesota at 80%.

MichiganMinnesota
  • Break %+9.4 pts
    39.548.9

    46 of 94 on serve vs 32 of 81, so Michigan's sideout was 51.1%.

  • Longest run+0
    55

    Minnesota scored 5 straight in the first set to turn a 16–17 deficit into a 21–17 lead. That set ended 25–19.

Minnesota above 50Michigan belowMax swing 3.9%

MichiganMinnesota

Hitting
Michigan .092·Minnesota .171
Aces
Michigan 6·Minnesota 10
Serve err
Michigan 14·Minnesota 11
Blocks
Michigan 6·Minnesota 143 BS · 6 BA vs 1 BS · 26 BA
Digs
Michigan 65·Minnesota 59

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Minnesota above 50 · Michigan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.9% MICHrally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.9% to Michigan — set 2, MICH 22-20 MINN. Attack error by Kelly Kinney. MINN win probability 84% → 80%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MICH 18.2%81.8% MINN

Michigan wins

3-0
2.9%
3-1
6.0%
3-2
9.4%

Minnesota wins

3-0
33.4%
3-1
30.7%
3-2
17.7%
MICH break %
37.5% vs this opp
MINN break %
44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kelly KinneyAttack error+3.9%

    Attack error by Kelly Kinney

    Set 2 · MICH 22-20 MINN · MICH 16% → 20%

  2. 02
    Mckenna WuchererAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Mckenna Wucherer

    Set 4 · MICH 16-16 MINN · MICH 10% → 13%

  3. 03
    Unlogged pointNCAA feed gap+3.4%

    Point Minnesota (not logged in NCAA feed)

    Set 4 · MICH 16-18 MINN · MINN 89% → 93%

  4. 04
    Morgan BurkeAce+3.4%

    Ace by Morgan Burke on Kelly Kinney

    Set 2 · MICH 23-20 MINN · MICH 20% → 23%

  5. 05
    Ella DemetricianAttack error+3.3%

    Attack error by Ella Demetrician

    Set 1 · MICH 17-18 MINN · MINN 77% → 81%

  6. 06

    Cymarah Gordon stuffed by Mckenna Wucherer & Lucie Blazkova

    Set 4 · MICH 19-22 MINN · MINN 94% → 97%

  7. 07
    Mckenna WuchererAttack error+3.0%

    Attack error by Mckenna Wucherer

    Set 1 · MICH 15-12 MINN · MICH 27% → 30%

  8. 08

    Lucie Blazkova stuffed by Ella Demetrician & Jenna Hanes

    Set 2 · MICH 19-18 MINN · MICH 12% → 15%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4151038.1320003000015
413837.13520116402114
48945-.0223235210111
4000–2332900003
41012.08300230111.52.5
4012-.500000201222
48316.31300010010.58.5
4112.0001401600001
4001.0003142010001
3000–000000000
2000–000020000
1000–001000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4632153.09245614651036680
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49027.3330236002112
410528.1790000202111
47012.5832712900219
44531-.032210100073.58.5
44011.364000301226
3137-.28601100010.52.5
4000–122400002
4000–011200001
4000–500710000
4000–1001610000
34413.00002220010511
2000–000000000
Team totals3917129.1713610115961261495

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MICH · MINN 5

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 MICHMINN 5

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 MICHMINN 4

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 2 MICHMINN 4

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 4 MICHMINN 4

Bars above the line = Minnesota leads, below = Michigan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Michigan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%6/15
40%4/10
2
55%6/11
50%6/12
3
43%6/14
45%5/11
4
67%6/9
33%3/9
5
55%6/11
0%0/6
6
50%5/10
55%6/11
All
50%35/70
41%24/59

Minnesota

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%6/9
58%7/12
2
38%6/16
40%4/10
3
100%6/6
57%8/14
4
67%6/9
45%5/11
5
75%6/8
50%6/12
6
45%5/11
45%5/11
All
59%35/59
50%35/70

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

175 rallies

#MICH-MINNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MINNMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Mckenna Wucherer+1.7
20-2MINNMINNBlockedEce Senyapiciblk Jordan Taylor+1.6
31-2MINNMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.1
41-3MICHMINNAttack errElla Demetrician+1.1
52-3MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.1
63-3MICHMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+1.8
73-4MICHMINNServe errMichigan+1.3
84-4MINNMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.4
94-5MICHMINNAttack errSydney Schnichels+1.3
104-6MINNMINNKillElena Hoeckeset Stella Swenson+1.7
115-6MINNMICHKillCamille Edwardsset Sydney Schnichels+1.2
125-7MICHMINNKillStella Swensonset Mckenna Wucherer+1.2
136-7MINNMICH×3Serve errMinnesota+1.3
147-7MICHMICH×3Attack errMckenna Wucherer+2.0
158-7MICHMICH×3BlockedKelly Kinneyblk Ece Senyapici, Lydia Johnson+2.3
168-8MICHMINNAttack errElla Demetrician+1.5
178-9MINNMINNKillJordan Taylorset Stella Swenson+2.1
189-9MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.6
1910-9MICHMICHBlockedKelly Kinneyblk Ece Senyapici, Ella Demetrician+2.5
2010-10MICHMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+1.6
2111-10MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+1.8
2211-11MICHMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+1.7
2311-12MINNMINNBlockedCymarah Gordonblk Mckenna Wucherer, Elena Hoecke+2.4
2412-12MINNMICH×4KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.8
2513-12MICHMICH×4AceMeredith Martinaced Zeynep Palabiyik+2.8
2614-12MICHMICH×4Attack errElena Hoecke+3.0
2715-12MICHMICH×4Attack errMckenna Wucherer+3.0
2815-13MICHMINN×3KillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+1.8
2915-14MINNMINN×3Attack errSydney Schnichels+2.8
3015-15MINNMINN×3AceMinnesotaaced Sydney Schnichels+3.0
3116-15MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+2.3
3216-16MICHMINNServe errMichigan+2.2
3317-16MINNMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.5
3417-17MICHMINN×5KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+2.3
3517-18MINNMINN×5Attack errElla Demetrician+3.3
3617-19MINNMINN×5AceMinnesotaaced Carly Greskovics+3.0
3717-20MINNMINN×5BlockedElla Demetricianblk Stella Swenson, Jordan Taylor+2.4
3817-21MINNMINN×5Attack errCamille Edwards+1.7
3918-21MINNMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.8
4018-22MICHMINNServe errMichigan+1.1
4118-23MINNMINNAceMinnesota+0.8
4219-23MINNMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.2
4319-24MICHMINNKillJordan Taylorset Stella Swenson+0.4
4419-25MINNMINNAceMinnesotaaced Carly Greskovics+0.1
Set 2
11-0MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Ella Demetrician+1.4
22-0MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.5
32-1MICHMINNServe errMichigan+1.0
42-2MINNMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.4
53-2MINNMICH×5KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.1
64-2MICHMICH×5Attack errElena Hoecke+1.6
75-2MICHMICH×5Attack errElena Hoecke+1.7
86-2MICHMICH×5KillJenna Hanesset Morgan Burke+1.7
97-2MICHMICH×5KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.7
107-3MICHMINN×3Serve errMichigan+1.0
117-4MINNMINN×3Attack errElla Demetrician+1.5
127-5MINNMINN×3Attack errCymarah Gordon+1.6
138-5MINNMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+1.3
148-6MICHMINNKillLucie Blazkovaset Stella Swenson+1.1
159-6MINNMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+1.4
169-7MICHMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+1.2
179-8MINNMINNKillStella Swensonset Camille Edwards+1.7
1810-8MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+1.4
1910-9MICHMINNAttack errElla Demetrician+1.2
2011-9MINNMICHAttack errKelly Kinney+1.5
2111-10MICHMINNServe errMichigan+1.3
2212-10MINNMICHAttack errMckenna Wucherer+1.5
2312-11MICHMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+1.3
2412-12MINNMINNBlockedSydney Schnichelsblk Makenna Crosson, Lucie Blazkova+2.0
2513-12MINNMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.5
2614-12MICHMICHBlockedLucie Blazkovablk Jenna Hanes+2.3
2714-13MICHMINNBlockedCymarah Gordonblk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova+1.4
2814-14MINNMINNAceMinnesotaaced Ella Demetrician+2.1
2915-14MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+1.7
3015-15MICHMINN×4KillStella Swensonset Kate Thibault+1.6
3115-16MINNMINN×4BlockedLydia Johnsonblk Lucie Blazkova, Kelly Kinney+2.2
3215-17MINNMINN×4AceMinnesotaaced Ella Demetrician+2.0
3315-18MINNMINN×4Attack errSydney Schnichels+1.7
3416-18MINNMICH×4KillSydney Schnichelsset Meredith Martin+1.0
3517-18MICHMICH×4AceSydney Schnichelsaced Kate Thibault+2.0
3618-18MICHMICH×4AceSydney Schnichels+2.5
3719-18MICHMICH×4BlockedLucie Blazkovablk Ella Demetrician, Jenna Hanes+3.0
3819-19MICHMINNServe errSydney Schnichels+2.0
3920-19MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+2.4
4020-20MICHMINNServe errJenna Hanes+2.2
4121-20MINNMICH×5KillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.7
4222-20MICHMICH×5Attack errKelly Kinney+3.9
4323-20MICHMICH×5AceMorgan Burkeaced Kelly Kinney+3.4
4424-20MICHMICH×5KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.0
4525-20MICHMICH×5KillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.6
Set 3
10-1MINNMINN×3KillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+2.6
20-2MINNMINN×3BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova+2.4
30-3MINNMINN×3KillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+2.1
41-3MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+1.5
51-4MICHMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+1.5
61-5MINNMINNKillLucie Blazkovaset Stella Swenson+1.9
72-5MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+1.3
83-5MICHMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Morgan Burke+2.1
93-6MICHMINNServe errMeredith Martin+1.6
104-6MINNMICHAttack errKelly Kinney+1.6
114-7MICHMINNKillLucie Blazkovaset Stella Swenson+1.6
124-8MINNMINNAttack errSydney Schnichels+2.0
135-8MINNMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Ella Demetrician+1.3
145-9MICHMINNServe errSydney Schnichels+1.4
156-9MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+1.3
166-10MICHMINN×4KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+1.4
176-11MINNMINN×4KillJordan Taylor+1.7
186-12MINNMINN×4Attack errElla Demetrician+1.3
196-13MINNMINN×4AceMinnesotaaced Ella Demetrician+0.9
207-13MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+0.5
217-14MICHMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+0.6
227-15MINNMINNAceMinnesotaaced Sydney Schnichels+0.6
238-15MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Meredith Martin+0.3
249-15MICHMICHAttack errLucie Blazkova+0.6
259-16MICHMINNAttack errCymarah Gordon+0.6
2610-16MINNMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+0.4
2710-17MICHMINN×4KillMckenna Wuchererset Zeynep Palabiyik+0.6
2810-18MINNMINN×4KillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+0.5
2910-19MINNMINN×4KillStella Swensonset Kate Thibault+0.2
3010-20MINNMINN×4Attack errSydney Schnichels+0.1
3111-20MINNMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke·
3211-21MICHMINNKillStella Swensonset Kate Thibault+0.1
3312-21MINNMICHKillJordan Taylorset Camille Edwards·
3412-22MICHMINNServe errSydney Schnichels·
3512-23MINNMINNAttack errLydia Johnson·
3613-23MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards·
3713-24MICHMINNServe errEllie White·
3814-24MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards·
3915-24MICHMICHKillElla Demetricianset Sydney Schnichels·
4015-25MICHMINNServe errMorgan Burke·
Set 4
10-1MICHMINN×4Attack errSydney Schnichels+1.4
20-2MINNMINN×4BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova+1.9
30-3MINNMINN×4BlockedSydney Schnichelsblk Makenna Crosson, Lucie Blazkova+1.7
40-4MINNMINN×4BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova+1.5
51-4MINNMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.0
61-5MICHMINNServe errMeredith Martin+1.0
72-5MINNMICH×3KillCymarah Gordonset Sydney Schnichels+1.0
83-5MICHMICH×3KillElla Demetricianset Camille Edwards+1.7
94-5MICHMICH×3KillSydney Schnichelsset Meredith Martin+2.0
104-6MICHMINNKillLucie Blazkovaset Stella Swenson+1.5
115-6MINNMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+1.5
125-7MICHMINN×3BlockedLydia Johnsonblk Lucie Blazkova, Kelly Kinney+1.5
135-8MINNMINN×3AceMinnesotaaced Ella Demetrician+1.9
145-9MINNMINN×3AceMinnesotaaced Meredith Martin+1.6
156-9MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+1.1
166-10MICHMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Ece Senyapici+1.2
176-11MINNMINNKillJordan Taylorset Ece Senyapici+1.3
187-11MINNMICH×4KillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+0.8
198-11MICHMICH×4KillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.5
209-11MICHMICH×4AceMorgan Burkeaced Kelly Kinney+2.0
2110-11MICHMICH×4AceMorgan Burke+2.4
2210-12MICHMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+1.8
2310-13MINNMINNAttack errElla Demetrician+2.2
2411-13MINNMICHBlockedMckenna Wuchererblk Ece Senyapici+1.5
2511-14MICHMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+1.6
2612-14MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+1.5
2712-15MICHMINNAttack errSydney Schnichels+1.7
2813-15MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+1.5
2914-15MICHMICHBlockedLucie Blazkovablk Sydney Schnichels+2.8
3014-16MICHMINNKillStella Swensonset McKenna Garr+2.1
3115-16MINNMICHKillSydney Schnichelsset Camille Edwards+2.1
3216-16MICHMICHAttack errMckenna Wucherer+3.6
3316-17MICHMINNKillStella Swensonset Kate Thibault+2.6
3416-18MINN
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.4
3517-18MINNMICHKillLydia Johnsonset Camille Edwards+2.3
3617-19MICHMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+2.5
3718-19MINNMICHServe errMinnesota+2.4
3818-20MICHMINNKillKelly Kinneyset Stella Swenson+2.7
3919-20MINNMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+2.5
4019-21MICHMINN×3Attack errCymarah Gordon+3.0
4119-22MINNMINN×3BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova+3.2
4219-23MINNMINN×3BlockedCymarah Gordonblk Mckenna Wucherer, Lucie Blazkova+1.9
4320-23MINNMICHKillElla Demetricianset Morgan Burke+0.6
4421-23MICHMICHKillCymarah Gordonset Morgan Burke+1.9
4521-24MICHMINNKillMakenna Crossonset Stella Swenson+2.3
4621-25MINNMINNKillMckenna Wuchererset Stella Swenson+1.1

Score shown after each rally, Michigan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).