Final · 5 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

Cincinnati def. Illinois 3–2

Cincinnati won at Illinois 3-2 (17-25, 22-25, 25-16, 25-23, 15-12) on Fri, Aug 28, 2026. Cincinnati's Sydney Nolan led with 25 kills, and Viktoria Ninova added 15 digs.

Data through · final Aug 28

Set12345Sets
CINCY17222525153
ILL25251623122

Win probability

Illinois above 50 · Cincinnati below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+16.4% CINCYrally 205 · set 5

Biggest swing: 16.4% to Cincinnati — set 5, CINCY 14-11 ILL. Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic). ILL win probability 24% → 7%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CINCY 14.9%85.1% ILL

Cincinnati wins

3-0
2.2%
3-1
4.8%
3-2
7.9%

Illinois wins

3-0
37.2%
3-1
31.3%
3-2
16.6%
CINCY break %
37.5% vs this opp
ILL break %
45.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Andrea SimovskiKill+16.4%

    Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 5 · CINCY 14-11 ILL · CINCY 76% → 93%

  2. 02
    Sydney NolanKill+15.0%

    Kill by Sydney Nolan (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 5 · CINCY 13-11 ILL · CINCY 62% → 76%

  3. 03
    Sydney NolanKill+13.4%

    Kill by Sydney Nolan (set by Lilian Entenmann)

    Set 5 · CINCY 10-7 ILL · CINCY 61% → 74%

  4. 04

    Sydney Nolan stuffed by Paityn Chapman & Kristina Starostenko

    Set 5 · CINCY 11-10 ILL · ILL 29% → 42%

  5. 05
    Paityn ChapmanAttack error+13.1%

    Attack error by Paityn Chapman

    Set 5 · CINCY 12-10 ILL · CINCY 58% → 71%

  6. 06

    Taylor de Boer stuffed by Lilian Entenmann & Nina Scrucca

    Set 5 · CINCY 8-6 ILL · CINCY 46% → 59%

  7. 07
    Andrea SimovskiKill+12.3%

    Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 4 · CINCY 25-23 ILL · CINCY 21% → 34%

  8. 08
    Andrea SimovskiKill+11.3%

    Kill by Andrea Simovski (set by Kate Lijic)

    Set 5 · CINCY 15-12 ILL · CINCY 89% → 100%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
525558.3450149100026
511222.40905360010.516.5
513232.344002134010.513.5
58115.4670012012210
51215-.067542250010.53.5
2104.250002000001
5003.0001431500004
5000–200700000
5000–000300000
4226.00010310111.53.5
12313-.077000100002
1000–001000000
Team totals6317168.274581221627265104
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
515342.28610360010.515.5
511532.188032150031.515.5
514336.30600011010.514.5
510216.50010030132.512.5
55114.28610020132.57.5
5118.000421080010.52.5
5022-1.0000221520002
5001.000100800000
5000–001200000
4001.000013470001
3000–300000000
Team totals5617152.2574971164122128101

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CINCY · ILL 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 CINCYILL 6

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 3 CINCYILL 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 6 CINCYILL 2

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 5 CINCYILL 3

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 2 CINCYILL 2

Bars above the line = Illinois leads, below = Cincinnati leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Cincinnati

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
31%4/13
2
57%12/21
40%8/20
3
71%12/17
45%10/22
4
69%11/16
42%8/19
5
53%8/15
31%4/13
6
50%7/14
50%8/16
All
61%62/102
41%42/103

Illinois

SlotSideout %Break %
1
60%12/20
33%5/15
2
63%12/19
37%7/19
3
63%12/19
40%8/20
4
64%9/14
25%4/16
5
45%9/20
47%8/17
6
64%7/11
53%8/15
All
59%61/103
39%40/102

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

205 rallies

#CINCY-ILLSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.4
21-1ILLCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.0
31-2CINCYILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.0
42-2ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.1
53-2CINCYCINCYAceCincinnatiaced Maya Harris+1.7
63-3CINCYILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.1
73-4ILLILL×3AceIllinoisaced Andrea Simovski+1.5
83-5ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.3
94-5ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.0
104-6CINCYILLKillLindsay Oldendorfset Kenna Phelan+1.0
115-6ILLCINCYKillIzzy Busignaniset Kate Lijic+1.0
125-7CINCYILL×5Serve errCincinnati+1.0
135-8ILLILL×5KillTaylor de Boerset Lindsay Oldendorf+1.2
145-9ILLILL×5KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.0
155-10ILLILL×5KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+0.8
165-11ILLILL×5BlockedIzzy Busignaniblk Taylor de Boer, Lindsay Oldendorf+0.6
176-11ILLCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+0.4
186-12CINCYILLKillLindsay Oldendorfset Kate Lijic+0.4
197-12ILLCINCYAttack errKristina Starostenko+0.4
207-13CINCYILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+0.4
218-13ILLCINCY×4KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+0.4
229-13CINCYCINCY×4AceCincinnatiaced Taryn Kirsch+0.7
2310-13CINCYCINCY×4KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.0
2411-13CINCYCINCY×4AceCincinnatiaced Taryn Kirsch+1.3
2511-14CINCYILL×3KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.0
2611-15ILLILL×3AceIllinois+1.2
2711-16ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+0.9
2812-16ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.5
2913-16CINCYCINCYAttack errAlyssa Aguayo+1.0
3013-17CINCYILLBlockedKate Lijicblk Kristina Starostenko+0.9
3114-17ILLCINCYServe errIllinois+0.7
3214-18CINCYILLAttack errSydney Nolan+0.9
3315-18ILLCINCYKillAudrey Romeset Kate Lijic+0.7
3415-19CINCYILLKillLindsay Oldendorfset Kenna Phelan+0.9
3516-19ILLCINCYKillIzzy Busignaniset Kate Lijic+0.7
3617-19CINCYCINCYAceCincinnatiaced Taryn Kirsch+1.5
3717-20CINCYILL×6KillKenna Phelanset Kate Lijic+1.3
3817-21ILLILL×6BlockedLigia Williamsblk Kenna Phelan, Kristina Starostenko+1.3
3917-22ILLILL×6KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+0.8
4017-23ILLILL×6KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+0.3
4117-24ILLILL×6Attack errIzzy Busignani+0.1
4217-25ILLILL×6Attack errIzzy Busignani·
Set 2
10-1CINCYILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+0.7
21-1ILLCINCYKillLilian Entenmannset Kate Lijic+0.7
31-2CINCYILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+0.7
42-2ILLCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+0.8
53-2CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.2
64-2CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Taryn Kirsch+1.3
74-3CINCYILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+0.8
85-3ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.0
96-3CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.4
106-4CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+0.9
117-4ILLCINCYServe errIllinois+1.1
127-5CINCYILL×3Serve errCincinnati+0.9
137-6ILLILL×3KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.3
147-7ILLILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.3
158-7ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Ava Ledebuhr+1.0
168-8CINCYILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+0.9
179-8ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Ava Ledebuhr+1.1
189-9CINCYILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.0
1910-9ILLCINCYAttack errPaityn Chapman+1.1
2010-10CINCYILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.0
2110-11ILLILLKillPaityn Chapman+1.4
2211-11ILLCINCYServe errIllinois+1.0
2311-12CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+1.0
2412-12ILLCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.1
2512-13CINCYILLKillLindsay Oldendorfset Kenna Phelan+1.0
2613-13ILLCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+1.1
2713-14CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+1.1
2814-14ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.2
2915-14CINCYCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.9
3015-15CINCYILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.3
3116-15ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+1.5
3216-16CINCYILL×3Serve errCincinnati+1.3
3316-17ILLILL×3AceIllinois+1.9
3416-18ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.7
3517-18ILLCINCYServe errIllinois+1.1
3617-19CINCYILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.2
3717-20ILLILLAttack errNina Scrucca+1.4
3818-20ILLCINCYKillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+0.8
3919-20CINCYCINCYAceCincinnati+1.7
4019-21CINCYILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.4
4120-21ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.3
4221-21CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.6
4321-22CINCYILL×3Serve errCincinnati+2.1
4421-23ILLILL×3Attack errAndrea Simovski+2.6
4521-24ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.6
4622-24ILLCINCYServe errIllinois+0.4
4722-25CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+1.0
Set 3
11-0ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.4
22-0CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.6
32-1CINCYILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+0.4
43-1ILLCINCY×3KillLigia Williamsset Kenna Phelan+0.4
54-1CINCYCINCY×3Attack errPaityn Chapman+0.7
65-1CINCYCINCY×3KillLigia Williams+0.7
75-2CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+0.4
86-2ILLCINCYAttack errMaya Harris+0.5
96-3CINCYILLAttack errSydney Nolan+0.4
106-4ILLILLAceIllinoisaced Andrea Simovski+0.6
117-4ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+0.5
127-5CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+0.4
137-6ILLILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+0.6
148-6ILLCINCY×6Serve errIllinois+0.5
159-6CINCYCINCY×6Serve errCincinnati+0.8
1610-6CINCYCINCY×6AceCincinnatiaced Taylor de Boer+0.8
1711-6CINCYCINCY×6Attack errTaylor de Boer+0.7
1812-6CINCYCINCY×6Attack errTaylor de Boer+0.7
1913-6CINCYCINCY×6KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+0.6
2013-7CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+0.3
2113-8ILLILLKillKristina Starostenko+0.5
2214-8ILLCINCY×3KillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+0.5
2315-8CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.6
2416-8CINCYCINCY×3BlockedKristina Starostenkoblk Lilian Entenmann+0.4
2516-9CINCYILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+0.2
2616-10ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+0.3
2717-10ILLCINCY×3Attack errMaya Harris+0.4
2818-10CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.4
2919-10CINCYCINCY×3KillSydney Nolan+0.2
3019-11CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+0.1
3119-12ILLILLKillKristina Starostenko+0.2
3220-12ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.2
3321-12CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+0.2
3421-13CINCYILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall·
3521-14ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+0.1
3622-14ILLCINCY×3Serve errIllinois+0.1
3723-14CINCYCINCY×3AceCincinnatiaced Taryn Kirsch+0.1
3824-14CINCYCINCY×3Attack errPaityn Chapman·
3924-15CINCYILLServe errCincinnati·
4024-16ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Sophi Randall·
4125-16ILLCINCYServe errIllinois·
Set 4
10-1CINCYILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kristina Starostenko+1.2
21-1ILLCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.3
31-2CINCYILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.2
42-2ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.4
53-2CINCYCINCYAceCincinnatiaced Taryn Kirsch+2.1
63-3CINCYILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.4
73-4ILLILL×3AceIllinoisaced Andrea Simovski+1.9
83-5ILLILL×3AceIllinoisaced Andrea Simovski+1.7
94-5ILLCINCYBlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Ligia Williams, Kate Lijic+1.2
105-5CINCYCINCYBlockedKenna Phelanblk Ligia Williams+2.0
115-6CINCYILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.4
125-7ILLILLAttack errKate Lijic+1.8
136-7ILLCINCYKillKate Lijicset Kate Lijic+1.3
146-8CINCYILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.3
157-8ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Viktoria Ninova+1.4
167-9CINCYILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.3
178-9ILLCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+1.4
189-9CINCYCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.3
199-10CINCYILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.6
2010-10ILLCINCYServe errIllinois+1.7
2111-10CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.8
2211-11CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+1.8
2311-12ILLILLBlockedNina Scruccablk Lindsay Oldendorf, Alyssa Aguayo+2.5
2412-12ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+1.9
2512-13CINCYILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Alyssa Aguayo+1.8
2613-13ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+2.0
2714-13CINCYCINCYBlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Andrea Simovski, Ligia Williams+3.2
2814-14CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+2.1
2915-14ILLCINCY×5KillLigia Williamsset Kate Lijic+2.4
3016-14CINCYCINCY×5AceCincinnati+3.7
3117-14CINCYCINCY×5AceCincinnatiaced Taryn Kirsch+3.7
3218-14CINCYCINCY×5KillLilian Entenmannset Kate Lijic+3.5
3319-14CINCYCINCY×5Attack errLindsay Oldendorf+2.9
3419-15CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+1.3
3520-15ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+2.1
3620-16CINCYILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.2
3720-17ILLILLBlockedLilian Entenmannblk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko+2.4
3821-17ILLCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+2.7
3921-18CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+1.6
4021-19ILLILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+3.2
4122-19ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+3.5
4222-20CINCYILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.1
4322-21ILLILL×3Attack errSydney Nolan+4.5
4422-22ILLILL×3BlockedSydney Nolanblk Paityn Chapman, Lindsay Oldendorf+5.8
4523-22ILLCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+5.3
4623-23CINCYILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+4.8
4724-23ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+6.7
4825-23CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+12.3
Set 5
10-1ILLILLAttack errLilian Entenmann+7.5
20-2ILLILLAceIllinoisaced Sydney Nolan+6.7
31-2ILLCINCYKillNina Scruccaset Kate Lijic+4.8
42-2CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+8.0
52-3CINCYILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+5.6
63-3ILLCINCYAttack errAlyssa Aguayo+6.1
74-3CINCYCINCYAceCincinnatiaced Maya Harris+9.8
84-4CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+6.5
95-4ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+7.5
105-5CINCYILLBlockedAndrea Simovskiblk Lindsay Oldendorf+6.8
116-5ILLCINCYServe errIllinois+8.0
126-6CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+7.2
137-6ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+8.5
148-6CINCYCINCYBlockedTaylor de Boerblk Lilian Entenmann, Nina Scrucca+12.8
158-7CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+7.6
169-7ILLCINCYServe errIllinois+10.0
1710-7CINCYCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Lilian Entenmann+13.4
1810-8CINCYILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+6.8
1911-8ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+10.3
2011-9CINCYILLServe errCincinnati+6.8
2111-10ILLILLBlockedSydney Nolanblk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko+13.1
2212-10ILLCINCYAttack errPaityn Chapman+13.1
2312-11CINCYILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+9.5
2413-11ILLCINCYKillSydney Nolanset Kate Lijic+15.0
2514-11CINCYCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+16.4
2614-12CINCYILLKillLindsay Oldendorfset Kenna Phelan+4.2
2715-12ILLCINCYKillAndrea Simovskiset Kate Lijic+11.3

Score shown after each rally, Cincinnati first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).