FinalTue, Sep 8, 2026

AwayMAC

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Michigan St. def. Western Mich. 3–0

(25-18, 25-19, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
W MICH	18	19	14	0
MICHST	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MICHST above 50 · W MICH below

Biggest swing: 0.4% to Western Mich. — set 1, W MICH 1-0 MICHST. Attack error by Alanna Bankston. MICHST win probability 98% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

W MICH 2.5%97.5% MICHST

Western Mich. wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.6%

3-2

1.6%

Michigan St. wins

3-0

64.7%

3-1

26.2%

3-2

6.6%

W MICH break %: 33.3% vs this opp
MICHST break %: 48.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alanna BankstonAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Alanna Bankston
Set 1 · W MICH 1-0 MICHST · W MICH 2% → 3%
02
Hayley OgdenKill+0.3%
Kill by Hayley Ogden (set by Malayah Long)
Set 1 · W MICH 1-2 MICHST · MICHST 97% → 98%
03
Carmen WayeAttack error+0.3%
Attack error by Carmen Waye
Set 2 · W MICH 12-13 MICHST · W MICH 1% → 1%
04
Cassidy PratleyAttack error+0.3%
Cassidy Pratley stuffed by Carmen Waye & Alanna Bankston
Set 1 · W MICH 1-3 MICHST · MICHST 98% → 98%
05
Karolina StaniszewskaAttack error+0.3%
Karolina Staniszewska stuffed by Gabby Weihe
Set 2 · W MICH 7-7 MICHST · W MICH 1% → 1%
06
W MICH serverService error+0.3%
Western Mich. service error
Set 1 · W MICH 1-1 MICHST · MICHST 97% → 97%
07
W MICH serverAce+0.3%
Western Mich. ace on Alanna Bankston
Set 2 · W MICH 5-5 MICHST · W MICH 1% → 1%
08
Carmen WayeKill+0.2%
Kill by Carmen Waye (set by Malayah Long)
Set 2 · W MICH 12-15 MICHST · MICHST 99% → 99%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Western Mich.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Izzy SwierczOH	3	8	2	18	.333	0	1	4	3	1	0	0	0	9
6Annalise PatchettOH	3	6	3	23	.130	0	0	2	5	1	0	0	0	6
10Gabby WeiheMB	3	4	4	9	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	5.5
4Leah RichmondS	3	3	0	7	.429	24	1	0	1	0	0	2	1	5
12Cassidy PratleyMB	3	3	6	13	-.231	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
2Elana EricksonL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	4	0	1	9	0	0	0	0	0
21Mia JurkovicOH	3	6	3	14	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
19Carley PiercefieldL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	1	6	1	0	0	0	1
7Ella AskinOH	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
9Ella GuilfoyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		31	19	87	.138	31	3	12	24	4	1	4	3	51

Michigan St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
28Alanna BankstonOH	3	10	3	23	.304	0	0	1	5	1	1	2	2	12
15Zora HardisonMB	3	9	0	12	.750	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	10
22Carmen WayeMB	3	5	1	11	.364	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	9.5
2Karolina StaniszewskaOH	3	8	3	21	.238	0	1	1	6	1	0	0	0	9
7Malayah LongS	3	1	1	5	.000	34	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
13Sarah VellucciL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
19Hayley OgdenMB	3	6	2	13	.308	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	7
1Lia SchneiderL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	14	0	0	0	0	0
4Madi AndrewsOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
5Ky ClaytonL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	10	87	.345	35	4	5	31	3	2	10	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 W MICH · MICHST 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 W MICHMICHST 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 W MICHMICHST 7

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 2 W MICHMICHST 6

Bars above the line = Michigan St. leads, below = Western Mich. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Western Mich.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	35%7/20	45%5/11
2	60%6/10	30%3/10
3	46%6/13	33%3/9
4	86%6/7	40%4/10
5	33%5/15	14%1/7
6	50%4/8	17%1/6
All	47%34/73	32%17/53

Michigan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	71%12/17
2	78%7/9	46%6/13
3	75%6/8	33%3/9
4	60%6/10	54%7/13
5	100%5/5	17%1/6
6	63%5/8	67%10/15
All	68%36/53	53%39/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	W MICH-MICHST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Alanna Bankston		+0.4
2	1-1	W MICH	MICHST×4	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.3
3	1-2	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.3
4	1-3	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Cassidy Pratley	blk Carmen Waye, Alanna Bankston	+0.3
5	1-4	MICHST	MICHST×4	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.2
6	2-4	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
7	2-5	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.2
8	3-5	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
9	3-6	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.2
10	3-7	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Gabby Weihe		+0.2
11	4-7	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
12	4-8	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.1
13	5-8	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
14	5-9	W MICH	MICHST×4	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.1
15	5-10	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Carley Piercefield	+0.2
16	5-11	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.1
17	5-12	MICHST	MICHST×4	Ace	MICHST server	aced Annalise Patchett	+0.1
18	6-12	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
19	6-13	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
20	6-14	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Izzy Swiercz		+0.0
21	7-14	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Elana Erickson	+0.0
22	7-15	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
23	8-15	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
24	8-16	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
25	8-17	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye		+0.0
26	9-17	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Elana Erickson	+0.0
27	9-18	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.0
28	10-18	MICHST	W MICH×3	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
29	11-18	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
30	12-18	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
31	12-19	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
32	13-19	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Mia Jurkovic	+0.0
33	13-20	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.0
34	13-21	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Mia Jurkovic		+0.0
35	14-21	MICHST	W MICH	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
36	15-21	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
37	15-22	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
38	15-23	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Cassidy Pratley		+0.0
39	16-23	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
40	17-23	W MICH	W MICH	Ace	W MICH server	aced Karolina Staniszewska	+0.0
41	17-24	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
42	18-24	MICHST	W MICH	Bad set	Malayah Long		+0.0
43	18-25	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Annalise Patchett		+0.2
2	0-2	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Annalise Patchett	blk Carmen Waye, Hayley Ogden	+0.2
3	0-3	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.1
4	1-3	MICHST	W MICH×3	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.1
5	2-3	W MICH	W MICH×3	Attack err	Alanna Bankston	blk Leah Richmond, Gabby Weihe	+0.2
6	3-3	W MICH	W MICH×3	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.2
7	3-4	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.1
8	3-5	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Gabby Weihe	blk Carmen Waye	+0.2
9	4-5	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Elana Erickson	+0.1
10	5-5	W MICH	W MICH	Ace	W MICH server	aced Alanna Bankston	+0.3
11	5-6	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.2
12	5-7	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Izzy Swiercz	+0.2
13	6-7	MICHST	W MICH	Attack err	Malayah Long		+0.2
14	7-7	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska	blk Gabby Weihe	+0.3
15	7-8	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.2
16	7-9	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.2
17	8-9	MICHST	W MICH	Bad set	Zora Hardison		+0.2
18	8-10	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.2
19	8-11	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.2
20	9-11	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Cassidy Pratley	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
21	9-12	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.1
22	9-13	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Cassidy Pratley		+0.1
23	10-13	MICHST	W MICH×3	Kill	Leah Richmond	set Elana Erickson	+0.1
24	11-13	W MICH	W MICH×3	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.2
25	12-13	W MICH	W MICH×3	Attack err	Carmen Waye		+0.3
26	12-14	W MICH	MICHST×7	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.2
27	12-15	MICHST	MICHST×7	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.2
28	12-16	MICHST	MICHST×7	Ace	MICHST server	aced Carley Piercefield	+0.2
29	12-17	MICHST	MICHST×7	Attack err	Izzy Swiercz		+0.1
30	12-18	MICHST	MICHST×7	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
31	12-19	MICHST	MICHST×7	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
32	12-20	MICHST	MICHST×7	Attack err	Cassidy Pratley	blk Alanna Bankston	+0.0
33	13-20	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
34	14-20	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.0
35	14-21	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
36	14-22	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.0
37	15-22	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
38	16-22	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.0
39	16-23	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.0
40	17-23	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
41	17-24	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
42	18-24	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
43	19-24	W MICH	W MICH	Ace	W MICH server	aced Ky Clayton	+0.0
44	19-25	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	W MICH	W MICH	Attack err	Alanna Bankston	blk Cassidy Pratley, Leah Richmond	+0.1
2	1-1	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.1
3	2-1	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Carley Piercefield	+0.1
4	2-2	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.1
5	3-2	MICHST	W MICH	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.1
6	3-3	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.1
7	4-3	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Annalise Patchett	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
8	4-4	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.1
9	5-4	MICHST	W MICH	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.1
10	5-5	W MICH	MICHST×3	Kill	Malayah Long	set Sarah Vellucci	+0.1
11	5-6	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.1
12	5-7	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.1
13	6-7	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Mia Jurkovic	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
14	6-8	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.1
15	7-8	MICHST	W MICH	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.1
16	7-9	W MICH	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.1
17	7-10	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Cassidy Pratley	blk Alanna Bankston, Carmen Waye	+0.1
18	8-10	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
19	8-11	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.1
20	8-12	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Gabby Weihe		+0.1
21	9-12	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Gabby Weihe	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
22	10-12	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.1
23	10-13	W MICH	MICHST×6	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.1
24	10-14	MICHST	MICHST×6	Attack err	Mia Jurkovic	blk Hayley Ogden, Zora Hardison	+0.1
25	10-15	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
26	10-16	MICHST	MICHST×6	Attack err	Mia Jurkovic		+0.0
27	10-17	MICHST	MICHST×6	Ace	MICHST server	aced Ella Askin	+0.0
28	10-18	MICHST	MICHST×6	Attack err	Gabby Weihe		+0.0
29	11-18	MICHST	W MICH	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.0
30	12-18	W MICH	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
31	12-19	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
32	13-19	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Izzy Swiercz	set Carley Piercefield	+0.0
33	13-20	W MICH	MICHST×4	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
34	13-21	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Ella Askin	blk Madi Andrews, Zora Hardison	+0.0
35	13-22	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Cassidy Pratley		+0.0
36	13-23	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
37	14-23	MICHST	W MICH	Kill	Ella Askin	set Leah Richmond	+0.0
38	14-24	W MICH	MICHST	Serve err	W MICH server		+0.0
39	14-25	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Western Mich. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.