FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeBIG-12

Michigan St. def. Cincinnati 3–0

(25-20, 25-17, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MICHST	25	25	25	3
CINCY	20	17	14	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CINCY above 50 · MICHST below

Biggest swing: 3.0% to Michigan St. — set 1, MICHST 13-12 CINCY. Izzy Busignani stuffed by Carmen Waye & Malayah Long. CINCY win probability 28% → 25%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MICHST 72.8%27.2% CINCY

Michigan St. wins

3-0

25.3%

3-1

27.9%

3-2

19.6%

Cincinnati wins

3-0

5.0%

3-1

9.4%

3-2

12.8%

MICHST break %: 43.0% vs this opp
CINCY break %: 38.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Izzy BusignaniAttack error+3.0%
Izzy Busignani stuffed by Carmen Waye & Malayah Long
Set 1 · MICHST 13-12 CINCY · MICHST 72% → 75%
02
Carmen WayeKill+2.9%
Kill by Carmen Waye
Set 1 · MICHST 15-13 CINCY · MICHST 75% → 77%
03
CINCY serverAce+2.8%
Cincinnati ace on Karolina Staniszewska
Set 1 · MICHST 9-10 CINCY · CINCY 27% → 30%
04
Izzy BusignaniKill+2.8%
Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · MICHST 16-15 CINCY · CINCY 22% → 24%
05
MICHST serverAce+2.7%
Michigan St. ace on Izzy Busignani
Set 1 · MICHST 18-15 CINCY · MICHST 78% → 80%
06
Ligia WilliamsAttack error+2.5%
Ligia Williams stuffed by Carmen Waye & Alanna Bankston
Set 1 · MICHST 16-13 CINCY · MICHST 77% → 80%
07
Nina ScruccaKill+2.5%
Kill by Nina Scrucca (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · MICHST 8-8 CINCY · CINCY 25% → 27%
08
Sydney NolanKill+2.3%
Kill by Sydney Nolan (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 1 · MICHST 0-2 CINCY · CINCY 29% → 31%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Michigan St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Karolina StaniszewskaOH	3	12	5	34	.206	4	3	2	5	1	1	0.5	15.5
28Alanna BankstonOH	3	10	1	17	.529	0	3	1	4	0	2	1	14
15Zora HardisonMB	3	6	1	9	.556	0	0	0	1	0	7	3.5	9.5
22Carmen WayeMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	1	2	1	0	2	1	7
19Hayley OgdenOPP	3	5	1	11	.364	0	0	2	2	0	3	1.5	6.5
7Malayah LongS	3	3	0	5	.600	25	0	0	9	0	2	1	4
1Lia SchneiderL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	2	8	0	0	0	1
13Sarah VellucciL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	7	1	0	0	1
16Kalea NortonS	1	1	1	2	.000	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
3Bianca MumcularOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Taylah HoldemOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		42	10	88	.364	38	9	10	37	2	18	9	75

Cincinnatihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Sydney NolanOH	3	11	6	41	.122	0	0	1	7	0	1	0	1	12
11Nina ScruccaOPP	3	6	5	16	.063	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	7
8Ligia WilliamsOH	3	4	1	8	.375	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Kate LijicS	3	3	0	3	1.000	20	0	0	5	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
16Izzy BusignaniOH	2	3	3	11	.000	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	3
4Audrey RomeMB	2	1	1	4	.000	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
21Viktoria NinovaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
1Ava LedebuhrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	0
5Lilian EntenmannMB	2	0	1	2	-.500	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
7Andrea SimovskiOH	1	1	1	4	.000	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	1
18Tatjana SimeunovicMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	18	90	.122	24	2	5	31	9	1	2	2	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 MICHST · CINCY 3

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 MICHSTCINCY 2

Set 2

25-17

Longest run 6 MICHSTCINCY 3

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 6 MICHSTCINCY 3

Bars above the line = Cincinnati leads, below = Michigan St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Michigan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	57%8/14
2	78%7/9	42%5/12
3	78%7/9	65%13/20
4	86%6/7	50%6/12
5	71%5/7	29%2/7
6	71%5/7	44%4/9
All	71%37/52	51%38/74

Cincinnati

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%7/16	50%5/10
2	47%7/15	30%3/10
3	44%7/16	36%4/11
4	60%6/10	0%0/7
5	71%5/7	25%2/8
6	40%4/10	17%1/6
All	49%36/74	29%15/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	MICHST-CINCY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+1.6
2	0-2	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.3
3	1-2	CINCY	MICHST×3	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+1.5
4	2-2	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Lia Schneider	+2.2
5	3-2	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+2.2
6	3-3	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+1.5
7	4-3	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.5
8	4-4	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Ava Ledebuhr	+1.6
9	5-4	CINCY	MICHST	Serve err	CINCY server		+1.5
10	5-5	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.6
11	6-5	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+1.6
12	6-6	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Kate Lijic	set Kate Lijic	+1.7
13	7-6	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+1.6
14	8-6	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Izzy Busignani	+2.2
15	8-7	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.5
16	8-8	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+2.5
17	9-8	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+1.7
18	9-9	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Viktoria Ninova	+1.8
19	9-10	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	CINCY server	aced Karolina Staniszewska	+2.8
20	10-10	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.9
21	10-11	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.1
22	11-11	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.9
23	11-12	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+2.1
24	12-12	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+2.0
25	13-12	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Izzy Busignani	blk Carmen Waye, Malayah Long	+3.0
26	13-13	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+2.1
27	14-13	CINCY	MICHST×3	Serve err	CINCY server		+2.1
28	15-13	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Carmen Waye		+2.9
29	16-13	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Ligia Williams	blk Carmen Waye, Alanna Bankston	+2.5
30	16-14	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+1.5
31	16-15	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+2.8
32	17-15	CINCY	MICHST×4	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+2.1
33	18-15	MICHST	MICHST×4	Ace	MICHST server	aced Izzy Busignani	+2.7
34	19-15	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Lia Schneider	+2.1
35	20-15	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+1.4
36	20-16	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.6
37	21-16	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Karolina Staniszewska	+0.9
38	21-17	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.5
39	21-18	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Viktoria Ninova	+1.3
40	22-18	CINCY	MICHST	Attack err	Nina Scrucca	blk Karolina Staniszewska, Zora Hardison	+1.4
41	22-19	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.8
42	23-19	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.3
43	23-20	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
44	24-20	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+1.1
45	25-20	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Ava Ledebuhr	+0.4
Set 2
1	0-1	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Carmen Waye		+1.8
2	0-2	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+1.9
3	0-3	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.9
4	1-3	CINCY	MICHST×3	Serve err	CINCY server		+1.2
5	2-3	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska		+1.8
6	3-3	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Hayley Ogden, Zora Hardison	+1.8
7	3-4	MICHST	CINCY	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska	blk Ligia Williams, Kate Lijic	+1.4
8	4-4	CINCY	MICHST×6	Attack err	Lilian Entenmann		+1.3
9	5-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Malayah Long	set Lia Schneider	+1.8
10	6-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+1.7
11	7-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Ace	MICHST server	aced Ava Ledebuhr	+1.6
12	8-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Zora Hardison, Malayah Long	+1.3
13	9-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+1.1
14	9-5	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.7
15	9-6	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Zora Hardison	blk Sydney Nolan	+1.2
16	10-6	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.9
17	10-7	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.9
18	11-7	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+1.0
19	11-8	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Lilian Entenmann	+0.9
20	11-9	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca		+1.6
21	12-9	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+1.2
22	12-10	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+1.1
23	13-10	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Karolina Staniszewska	+1.2
24	13-11	MICHST	CINCY	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+1.2
25	14-11	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.3
26	15-11	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Andrea Simovski	+1.6
27	15-12	MICHST	CINCY	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.9
28	16-12	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+1.1
29	17-12	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.2
30	17-13	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Kate Lijic	set Kate Lijic	+0.6
31	17-14	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+1.3
32	18-14	CINCY	MICHST×3	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+1.1
33	19-14	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	MICHST server	aced Andrea Simovski	+1.2
34	20-14	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Nina Scrucca	blk Zora Hardison, Alanna Bankston	+0.7
35	20-15	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
36	21-15	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Malayah Long	set Karolina Staniszewska	+0.4
37	21-16	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.2
38	22-16	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.4
39	22-17	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
40	23-17	CINCY	MICHST×3	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.3
41	24-17	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Andrea Simovski		+0.1
42	25-17	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	MICHST server	aced Andrea Simovski	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Zora Hardison, Hayley Ogden	+0.9
2	2-0	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Hayley Ogden, Zora Hardison	+0.8
3	3-0	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+0.8
4	4-0	MICHST	MICHST×5	Kill	Hayley Ogden		+0.7
5	5-0	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Nina Scrucca		+0.6
6	5-1	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.3
7	6-1	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.4
8	6-2	MICHST	CINCY×3	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
9	6-3	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	CINCY server	aced Sarah Vellucci	+0.6
10	6-4	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.8
11	7-4	CINCY	MICHST×6	Attack err	Audrey Rome		+0.6
12	8-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Ace	MICHST server	aced Izzy Busignani	+0.7
13	9-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.6
14	10-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Ace	MICHST server	aced Viktoria Ninova	+0.5
15	11-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.4
16	12-4	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.2
17	12-5	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.1
18	13-5	CINCY	MICHST×3	Kill	Malayah Long	set Karolina Staniszewska	+0.2
19	14-5	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.2
20	15-5	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.1
21	15-6	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
22	16-6	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Sarah Vellucci	+0.1
23	16-7	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
24	17-7	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Kalea Norton	+0.0
25	17-8	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
26	17-9	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Kalea Norton		+0.1
27	18-9	CINCY	MICHST	Serve err	CINCY server		+0.1
28	19-9	MICHST	MICHST	Bad set	Kate Lijic		+0.1
29	19-10	MICHST	CINCY	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
30	20-10	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Kalea Norton	+0.0
31	20-11	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
32	21-11	CINCY	MICHST×3	Attack err	Sydney Nolan	blk Zora Hardison, Kalea Norton	+0.0
33	22-11	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.0
34	23-11	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Kalea Norton	+0.0
35	23-12	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+0.0
36	24-12	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Kalea Norton	+0.0
37	24-13	MICHST	CINCY	Kill	Kate Lijic	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.0
38	24-14	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Alanna Bankston		+0.0
39	25-14	CINCY	MICHST	Kill	Kalea Norton	set Lia Schneider	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Michigan St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.