Final · 4 setsTue, Sep 15, 2026

AwayHORIZON

1:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Michigan St. def. Oakland 3–1

(25-16, 24-26, 25-16, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
OAK	16	26	16	21	1
MICHST	25	24	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MICHST above 50 · OAK below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Oakland — set 4, OAK 20-19 MICHST. Kill by Liv Hosford (set by Delaney Stern). MICHST win probability 97% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

OAK 0.5%99.5% MICHST

Oakland wins

3-0

0.0%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.4%

Michigan St. wins

3-0

79.5%

3-1

17.5%

3-2

2.4%

OAK break %: 31.6% vs this opp
MICHST break %: 51.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Liv HosfordKill+1.7%
Kill by Liv Hosford (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 4 · OAK 20-19 MICHST · OAK 3% → 4%
02
Liv HosfordAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Liv Hosford
Set 4 · OAK 21-22 MICHST · MICHST 96% → 98%
03
Liv HosfordKill+1.4%
Kill by Liv Hosford (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 4 · OAK 21-20 MICHST · OAK 3% → 5%
04
Bianca MumcularKill+1.2%
Kill by Bianca Mumcular (set by Malayah Long)
Set 4 · OAK 21-23 MICHST · MICHST 98% → 99%
05
Zora HardisonKill+1.2%
Kill by Zora Hardison (set by Malayah Long)
Set 4 · OAK 21-21 MICHST · MICHST 95% → 96%
06
Zora HardisonAttack error+1.1%
Zora Hardison stuffed by Liv Hosford
Set 4 · OAK 19-19 MICHST · OAK 1% → 3%
07
Lillian FriasKill+1.0%
Kill by Lillian Frias (set by Delaney Stern)
Set 2 · OAK 26-24 MICHST · OAK 1% → 2%
08
Liv HosfordAttack error+1.0%
Attack error by Liv Hosford
Set 4 · OAK 20-20 MICHST · MICHST 96% → 97%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Oaklandaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
14Liv HosfordOH	4	16	8	45	.178	0	0	1	5	3	1	1	17
10Lillian FriasMB	4	6	3	18	.167	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6
11Molly ReckOH	4	4	6	16	-.125	1	0	1	16	0	0	0	4
15Delaney SternS	4	2	1	8	.125	33	1	0	16	0	0	0	3
3Kiley GallagherL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	4	0	0	0
8Ellen ZappMB	3	1	4	9	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
12Ella SchomerOPP	4	7	6	25	.040	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7
7Kalliann CookL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	7	3	1	14	0	0	0	3
23Grace CooneyMB	3	4	1	13	.231	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	5
2Kate VrabelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
13Ella MartinOH	2	2	1	12	.083	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	3
Team totals		42	30	146	.082	42	4	4	67	8	3	3	79

Michigan St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
22Carmen WayeMB	4	16	0	29	.552	0	0	2	7	0	2	8	6	22
3Bianca MumcularOH	4	12	4	36	.222	1	0	2	6	0	0	4	2	14
15Zora HardisonMB	4	9	2	21	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	3.5	12.5
2Karolina StaniszewskaOH	4	9	6	34	.088	2	2	2	12	2	0	2	1	12
7Malayah LongS	4	3	1	8	.250	46	1	1	8	0	0	2	1	5
13Sarah VellucciL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	2	2	0	6	1	0	0	0	2
19Hayley OgdenOPP	4	8	6	22	.091	0	1	2	3	0	0	5	2.5	11.5
1Lia SchneiderL/DS	4	0	0	3	.000	3	2	2	17	0	0	0	0	2
18Breccan ScheckMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26Alana WhitfieldL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Ky ClaytonL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		57	19	154	.247	54	8	12	59	4	3	26	16	99

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 OAK · MICHST 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 OAKMICHST 4

Set 2

26-24

Longest run 7 OAKMICHST 6

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 2 OAKMICHST 4

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 4 OAKMICHST 5

Bars above the line = Michigan St. leads, below = Oakland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Oakland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	33%10/30	33%5/15
2	64%9/14	29%4/14
3	69%9/13	31%4/13
4	57%8/14	11%1/9
5	57%8/14	58%11/19
6	62%8/13	20%2/10
All	53%52/98	34%27/80

Michigan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%11/16	63%15/24
2	67%10/15	52%11/21
3	80%8/10	25%3/12
4	44%8/18	38%5/13
5	73%8/11	47%7/15
6	80%8/10	38%5/13
All	66%53/80	47%46/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

178 rallies

Rally log

#	OAK-MICHST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Karolina Staniszewska	+0.1
2	1-1	OAK	MICHST×4	Attack err	Ellen Zapp		+0.1
3	1-2	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.1
4	1-3	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Ellen Zapp	blk Carmen Waye, Bianca Mumcular	+0.1
5	1-4	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Liv Hosford	blk Malayah Long, Carmen Waye	+0.1
6	2-4	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Kalliann Cook	+0.0
7	2-5	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	+0.0
8	3-5	MICHST	OAK	Attack err	Bianca Mumcular		+0.0
9	3-6	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
10	3-7	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Carmen Waye, Hayley Ogden	+0.0
11	4-7	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Ellen Zapp	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
12	4-8	OAK	MICHST×3	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.0
13	4-9	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Lillian Frias	blk Zora Hardison	+0.0
14	4-10	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
15	5-10	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
16	5-11	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.0
17	6-11	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
18	6-12	OAK	MICHST×4	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
19	6-13	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Liv Hosford	blk Malayah Long, Zora Hardison	+0.0
20	6-14	MICHST	MICHST×4	Ace	MICHST server	aced Kiley Gallagher	+0.0
21	6-15	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.0
22	7-15	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
23	8-15	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Karolina Staniszewska	+0.0
24	8-16	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Malayah Long	set Sarah Vellucci	+0.0
25	9-16	MICHST	OAK×3	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
26	10-16	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Bianca Mumcular		+0.0
27	11-16	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
28	11-17	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Sarah Vellucci	+0.0
29	11-18	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Karolina Staniszewska	+0.0
30	12-18	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
31	12-19	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
32	13-19	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Delaney Stern	set Molly Reck	+0.0
33	13-20	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.0
34	14-20	MICHST	OAK	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.0
35	14-21	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
36	14-22	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Team	+0.0
37	15-22	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
38	15-23	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.0
39	16-23	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
40	16-24	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
41	16-25	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
2	1-1	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Ellen Zapp	blk Carmen Waye	+0.0
3	2-1	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.1
4	2-2	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
5	2-3	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Ella Schomer		+0.1
6	3-3	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
7	3-4	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.0
8	4-4	MICHST	OAK×7	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.0
9	5-4	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
10	6-4	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
11	7-4	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+0.1
12	8-4	OAK	OAK×7	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.2
13	9-4	OAK	OAK×7	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
14	10-4	OAK	OAK×7	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.2
15	10-5	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	+0.1
16	11-5	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
17	11-6	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Ellen Zapp		+0.1
18	11-7	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.2
19	12-7	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.2
20	13-7	OAK	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
21	13-8	OAK	MICHST×3	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.1
22	13-9	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.2
23	13-10	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	MICHST server	aced Liv Hosford	+0.2
24	14-10	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
25	15-10	OAK	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Kalliann Cook	+0.2
26	15-11	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	+0.1
27	15-12	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Carmen Waye, Hayley Ogden	+0.2
28	16-12	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Delaney Stern	set Kalliann Cook	+0.2
29	16-13	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.1
30	17-13	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.2
31	17-14	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.1
32	18-14	MICHST	OAK	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.2
33	19-14	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Bianca Mumcular		+0.3
34	19-15	OAK	MICHST	Serve err	OAK server		+0.1
35	20-15	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
36	20-16	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Lia Schneider	+0.1
37	21-16	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
38	22-16	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Team	+0.2
39	22-17	OAK	MICHST×6	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	+0.1
40	22-18	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.1
41	22-19	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Carmen Waye		+0.2
42	22-20	MICHST	MICHST×6	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.3
43	22-21	MICHST	MICHST×6	Attack err	Ella Schomer	blk Hayley Ogden	+0.3
44	22-22	MICHST	MICHST×6	Attack err	Ella Schomer	blk Bianca Mumcular, Carmen Waye	+0.4
45	23-22	MICHST	OAK	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.4
46	23-23	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.3
47	24-23	MICHST	OAK	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.5
48	24-24	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Molly Reck	blk Hayley Ogden, Carmen Waye	+0.5
49	25-24	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Kalliann Cook	+0.5
50	26-24	OAK	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+1.0
Set 3
1	0-1	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.2
2	1-1	MICHST	OAK	Attack err	Malayah Long	blk Grace Cooney	+0.3
3	1-2	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.3
4	2-2	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Grace Cooney	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
5	2-3	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Delaney Stern		+0.3
6	3-3	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Grace Cooney	set Delaney Stern	+0.4
7	3-4	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.3
8	3-5	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.4
9	4-5	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
10	5-5	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Zora Hardison		+0.5
11	5-6	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.3
12	5-7	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Malayah Long	set Lia Schneider	+0.4
13	6-7	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Molly Reck	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
14	6-8	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.3
15	7-8	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+0.3
16	8-8	OAK	OAK	Ace	OAK server	aced Sarah Vellucci	+0.7
17	8-9	OAK	MICHST	Serve err	OAK server		+0.4
18	8-10	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.5
19	9-10	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Kalliann Cook	+0.4
20	9-11	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Malayah Long	set Karolina Staniszewska	+0.3
21	9-12	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Ella Schomer	blk Bianca Mumcular, Carmen Waye	+0.4
22	10-12	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.3
23	11-12	OAK	OAK	Bad set	Malayah Long		+0.6
24	11-13	OAK	MICHST×3	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	+0.4
25	11-14	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.5
26	11-15	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.3
27	12-15	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.2
28	12-16	OAK	MICHST	Serve err	OAK server		+0.2
29	12-17	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Ella Schomer		+0.2
30	13-17	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
31	13-18	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.1
32	13-19	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Lillian Frias	blk Karolina Staniszewska, Zora Hardison	+0.1
33	14-19	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Ella Martin	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
34	14-20	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.1
35	15-20	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.1
36	15-21	OAK	MICHST×4	Attack err	Grace Cooney	blk Bianca Mumcular, Zora Hardison	+0.1
37	15-22	MICHST	MICHST×4	Ace	MICHST server	aced Kiley Gallagher	+0.0
38	15-23	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.0
39	15-24	MICHST	MICHST×4	Ace	MICHST server	aced Kiley Gallagher	+0.0
40	16-24	MICHST	OAK	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
41	16-25	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	+0.0
Set 4
1	0-1	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.3
2	1-1	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
3	2-1	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.4
4	2-2	OAK	MICHST×3	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	+0.2
5	2-3	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Lia Schneider	+0.3
6	2-4	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Carmen Waye		+0.2
7	3-4	MICHST	OAK×3	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.2
8	4-4	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.3
9	5-4	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Hayley Ogden	blk Ella Martin	+0.5
10	5-5	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.3
11	6-5	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Grace Cooney	set Delaney Stern	+0.4
12	6-6	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.3
13	6-7	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Ella Schomer	blk Zora Hardison, Karolina Staniszewska	+0.4
14	7-7	MICHST	OAK×4	Kill	Ella Schomer	set Delaney Stern	+0.3
15	8-7	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.6
16	9-7	OAK	OAK×4	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.7
17	10-7	OAK	OAK×4	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.9
18	10-8	OAK	MICHST×3	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.5
19	10-9	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	MICHST server	aced Liv Hosford	+0.7
20	10-10	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Bianca Mumcular	+0.6
21	11-10	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Ella Martin	set Kiley Gallagher	+0.5
22	11-11	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Molly Reck		+0.4
23	11-12	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Kiley Gallagher	+0.5
24	12-12	MICHST	OAK	Attack err	Bianca Mumcular		+0.4
25	12-13	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.4
26	13-13	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.5
27	13-14	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.4
28	14-14	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+0.5
29	15-14	OAK	OAK	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+1.0
30	15-15	OAK	MICHST	Serve err	OAK server		+0.6
31	16-15	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Grace Cooney	set Delaney Stern	+0.8
32	16-16	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Lillian Frias	blk Carmen Waye	+0.6
33	16-17	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Ella Martin	blk Zora Hardison, Hayley Ogden	+0.8
34	17-17	MICHST	OAK	Bad set	Malayah Long		+0.7
35	17-18	OAK	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.6
36	17-19	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Liv Hosford	+0.7
37	18-19	MICHST	OAK×3	Kill	Lillian Frias	set Delaney Stern	+0.5
38	19-19	OAK	OAK×3	Attack err	Zora Hardison	blk Liv Hosford	+1.1
39	20-19	OAK	OAK×3	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.7
40	20-20	OAK	MICHST	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+1.0
41	21-20	MICHST	OAK	Kill	Liv Hosford	set Delaney Stern	+1.4
42	21-21	OAK	MICHST×5	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+1.2
43	21-22	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+1.6
44	21-23	MICHST	MICHST×5	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	+1.2
45	21-24	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Liv Hosford		+0.6
46	21-25	MICHST	MICHST×5	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Oakland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.