FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Michigan St. def. Drake 3–0

(25-22, 25-13, 25-13)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
DRAKE	22	13	13	0
MICHST	25	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MICHST above 50 · DRAKE below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Drake — set 1, DRAKE 15-9 MICHST. Drake ace on Karolina Staniszewska. MICHST win probability 97% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

DRAKE 0.7%99.3% MICHST

Drake wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.1%

3-2

0.5%

Michigan St. wins

3-0

77.6%

3-1

18.9%

3-2

2.9%

DRAKE break %: 32.9% vs this opp
MICHST break %: 51.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
DRAKE serverAce+0.5%
Drake ace on Karolina Staniszewska
Set 1 · DRAKE 15-9 MICHST · DRAKE 3% → 3%
02
Alanna BankstonKill+0.4%
Kill by Alanna Bankston (set by Lia Schneider)
Set 1 · DRAKE 18-17 MICHST · MICHST 98% → 98%
03
Carmen WayeAttack error+0.4%
Carmen Waye stuffed by Aniyah Davis & Lisa Melenciano
Set 1 · DRAKE 13-8 MICHST · DRAKE 2% → 2%
04
Bliss BeckKill+0.4%
Kill by Bliss Beck (set by Carolyn Maser)
Set 1 · DRAKE 18-15 MICHST · DRAKE 2% → 2%
05
Alanna BankstonKill+0.4%
Kill by Alanna Bankston (set by Malayah Long)
Set 1 · DRAKE 18-18 MICHST · MICHST 98% → 99%
06
MICHST serverService error+0.4%
Michigan St. service error
Set 1 · DRAKE 17-14 MICHST · DRAKE 2% → 2%
07
DRAKE serverAce+0.4%
Drake ace on Sarah Vellucci
Set 1 · DRAKE 12-8 MICHST · DRAKE 2% → 2%
08
Lisa MelencianoKill+0.4%
Kill by Lisa Melenciano (set by Katie Quick)
Set 1 · DRAKE 16-12 MICHST · DRAKE 2% → 2%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Drakeaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Lisa MelencianoOH	3	9	4	17	.294	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	10
5Caroline SmithOH	3	7	4	16	.188	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	7
15Matthea DaltonOH	3	1	5	13	-.308	0	1	1	6	4	0	0	0	2
6Bliss BeckMB	3	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
4Aniyah DavisOH	3	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
2Katie QuickS	3	0	0	0	–	15	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
23Kamryn BehrnsOH	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	6
1Bella FariaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
3Jasmine DulanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	0	11	3	0	0	0	1
11Carolyn MaserS	3	0	0	0	–	7	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
18Isabelle KremerOH	2	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1
Team totals		24	16	67	.119	24	4	5	23	12	3	4	5	48

Michigan St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
28Alanna BankstonOH	3	18	2	25	.640	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	18.5
22Carmen WayeMB	3	7	1	13	.462	0	3	3	1	0	4	2	12
19Hayley OgdenOPP	3	4	1	9	.333	0	2	1	0	0	2	1	7
15Zora HardisonMB	3	2	1	8	.125	1	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	3.5
7Malayah LongS	3	0	0	2	.000	32	2	2	5	0	3	1.5	3.5
2Karolina StaniszewskaOH	3	2	1	8	.125	1	0	3	4	2	1	0.5	2.5
5Ky ClaytonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	3	1	2	0	0	0	3
1Lia SchneiderL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	1	6	1	0	0	1
4Madi AndrewsOH	2	6	1	8	.625	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	7
14Taylah HoldemOH	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
13Sarah VellucciL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
3Bianca MumcularOH	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
16Kalea NortonS	1	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	7	77	.442	41	12	13	23	4	14	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 DRAKE · MICHST 7

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 DRAKEMICHST 5

Set 2*

13-25

Longest run 2 DRAKEMICHST 7

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 2 DRAKEMICHST 5

Bars above the line = Michigan St. leads, below = Drake leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Drake

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%5/9	50%3/6
2	44%4/9	44%4/9
3	67%4/6	20%1/5
4	67%4/6	33%2/6
5	25%3/12	20%1/5
6	38%3/8	25%1/4
All	46%23/50	34%12/35

Michigan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%5/9	44%4/9
2	80%4/5	56%5/9
3	67%4/6	33%2/6
4	80%4/5	33%2/6
5	75%3/4	75%9/12
6	50%3/6	63%5/8
All	66%23/35	54%27/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	DRAKE-MICHST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.1
2	2-0	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.2
3	2-1	DRAKE	MICHST	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.1
4	3-1	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.1
5	3-2	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.1
6	4-2	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Katie Quick	+0.1
7	5-2	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Hayley Ogden	blk Kamryn Behrns	+0.2
8	5-3	DRAKE	MICHST×3	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.1
9	5-4	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	MICHST server	aced Caroline Smith	+0.2
10	5-5	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Caroline Smith		+0.2
11	6-5	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.1
12	7-5	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska	blk Kamryn Behrns	+0.2
13	7-6	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.1
14	8-6	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.2
15	9-6	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.3
16	9-7	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.2
17	9-8	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.2
18	10-8	MICHST	DRAKE×4	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.2
19	11-8	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Alanna Bankston		+0.3
20	12-8	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Sarah Vellucci	+0.4
21	13-8	DRAKE	DRAKE×4	Attack err	Carmen Waye	blk Aniyah Davis, Lisa Melenciano	+0.4
22	13-9	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.2
23	14-9	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.3
24	15-9	DRAKE	DRAKE	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Karolina Staniszewska	+0.5
25	15-10	DRAKE	MICHST×3	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.2
26	15-11	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Caroline Smith		+0.3
27	15-12	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	MICHST server	aced Caroline Smith	+0.4
28	16-12	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.4
29	16-13	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.3
30	16-14	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Matthea Dalton	+0.4
31	17-14	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.4
32	17-15	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.3
33	18-15	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Bliss Beck	set Carolyn Maser	+0.4
34	18-16	DRAKE	MICHST×5	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.3
35	18-17	MICHST	MICHST×5	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Lia Schneider	+0.4
36	18-18	MICHST	MICHST×5	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.4
37	18-19	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Matthea Dalton		+0.4
38	18-20	MICHST	MICHST×5	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.3
39	19-20	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.2
40	19-21	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.2
41	20-21	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Matthea Dalton	set Carolyn Maser	+0.2
42	20-22	DRAKE	MICHST×3	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.2
43	20-23	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	MICHST server	aced Team	+0.2
44	20-24	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	MICHST server	aced Jasmine Dulan	+0.1
45	21-24	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.0
46	22-24	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Jasmine Dulan	+0.1
47	22-25	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
2	1-1	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
3	1-2	DRAKE	MICHST×4	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
4	1-3	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
5	1-4	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Caroline Smith	blk Carmen Waye, Hayley Ogden	+0.0
6	1-5	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+0.0
7	2-5	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Aniyah Davis	set Katie Quick	+0.0
8	2-6	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.0
9	2-7	MICHST	MICHST	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
10	3-7	MICHST	DRAKE	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.0
11	3-8	DRAKE	MICHST	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.0
12	3-9	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Matthea Dalton	+0.0
13	4-9	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Carolyn Maser	+0.0
14	5-9	DRAKE	DRAKE	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Lia Schneider	+0.0
15	5-10	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
16	6-10	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
17	7-10	DRAKE	DRAKE	Ace	DRAKE server	aced Karolina Staniszewska	+0.0
18	7-11	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
19	8-11	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.0
20	8-12	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
21	9-12	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.0
22	9-13	DRAKE	MICHST×7	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
23	9-14	MICHST	MICHST×7	Ace	MICHST server	aced Caroline Smith	+0.0
24	9-15	MICHST	MICHST×7	Bad set	Katie Quick		+0.0
25	9-16	MICHST	MICHST×7	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+0.0
26	9-17	MICHST	MICHST×7	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano	blk Karolina Staniszewska, Carmen Waye	+0.0
27	9-18	MICHST	MICHST×7	Attack err	Isabelle Kremer		+0.0
28	9-19	MICHST	MICHST×7	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Lia Schneider	+0.0
29	10-19	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.0
30	10-20	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.0
31	11-20	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
32	12-20	DRAKE	DRAKE	Attack err	Zora Hardison	blk Isabelle Kremer	+0.0
33	12-21	DRAKE	MICHST×4	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Lia Schneider	+0.0
34	12-22	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.0
35	12-23	MICHST	MICHST×4	Attack err	Isabelle Kremer	blk Malayah Long, Zora Hardison	+0.0
36	12-24	MICHST	MICHST×4	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Zora Hardison	+0.0
37	13-24	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
38	13-25	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
2	1-1	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.0
3	1-2	DRAKE	MICHST×3	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Karolina Staniszewska	+0.0
4	1-3	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.0
5	1-4	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Caroline Smith	blk Hayley Ogden, Carmen Waye	+0.0
6	2-4	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
7	2-5	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Lia Schneider	+0.0
8	3-5	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.0
9	3-6	DRAKE	MICHST	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.0
10	4-6	MICHST	DRAKE	Serve err	MICHST server		+0.0
11	4-7	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Lia Schneider	+0.0
12	4-8	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
13	5-8	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.0
14	5-9	DRAKE	MICHST×5	Attack err	Matthea Dalton	blk Malayah Long, Zora Hardison	+0.0
15	5-10	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Matthea Dalton		+0.0
16	5-11	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Matthea Dalton	blk Malayah Long, Carmen Waye	+0.0
17	5-12	MICHST	MICHST×5	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.0
18	5-13	MICHST	MICHST×5	Ace	MICHST server	aced Jasmine Dulan	+0.0
19	6-13	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Kamryn Behrns	set Carolyn Maser	+0.0
20	6-14	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
21	6-15	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.0
22	7-15	MICHST	DRAKE	Attack err	Alanna Bankston	blk Aniyah Davis, Lisa Melenciano	+0.0
23	8-15	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Jasmine Dulan	+0.0
24	8-16	DRAKE	MICHST	Attack err	Lisa Melenciano		+0.0
25	8-17	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Caroline Smith	+0.0
26	9-17	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.0
27	10-17	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.0
28	10-18	DRAKE	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.0
29	10-19	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	MICHST server	aced Matthea Dalton	+0.0
30	11-19	MICHST	DRAKE	Kill	Lisa Melenciano	set Katie Quick	+0.0
31	12-19	DRAKE	DRAKE	Kill	Caroline Smith	set Katie Quick	+0.0
32	12-20	DRAKE	MICHST	Serve err	DRAKE server		+0.0
33	13-20	MICHST	DRAKE	Attack err	Madi Andrews		+0.0
34	13-21	DRAKE	MICHST×5	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Kalea Norton	+0.0
35	13-22	MICHST	MICHST×5	Ace	MICHST server	aced Jasmine Dulan	+0.0
36	13-23	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Kamryn Behrns	blk Zora Hardison, Alanna Bankston	+0.0
37	13-24	MICHST	MICHST×5	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Kalea Norton	+0.0
38	13-25	MICHST	MICHST×5	Attack err	Matthea Dalton		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Drake first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.