Final · 5 setsSun, Oct 4, 2026Watch on B1G+

Michigan St. def. Southern California 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Michigan St. 65.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 4, 3:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Michigan St. won at Southern California 3-2 (18-25, 25-14, 24-26, 25-18, 15-11) on Sun, Oct 4, 2026. Michigan St.'s Karolina Staniszewska led with 17 kills, and Lia Schneider added 12 digs.

Data through · final Oct 4

Set12345Sets
MICHST18252425153
USC25142618112

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Malayah Long set 65 assists as Michigan St. outlasted Southern California.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Michigan St.'s win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Michigan St. went in as RallyIQ's 65% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Michigan St. 3–6 Southern California

    Down 3–6, Michigan St. scored 4 straight to lead 7–6. The match swung to Michigan St.

    Michigan St. 27% → 65%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Michigan St. 8–9 Southern California

    Michigan St. scored 3 straight to turn an 8–9 deficit into an 11–9 lead. The match swung to Michigan St.

    Michigan St. 43% → 80%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Michigan St. 12–10 Southern California

    Michigan St. won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–11 and win the match 3–2.

    Michigan St. 82% → >99%

Southern California above 50Michigan St. belowMax swing 14.6%

Michigan St.Southern California

Sideout %
Michigan St. 59.6·Southern California 52.3
Break %
Michigan St. 47.7·Southern California 40.4
Hitting
Michigan St. .333·Southern California .236
Longest run
Michigan St. 6·Southern California 6

Karolina Staniszewska
3 kills inside the turning points, 17 K and .419 for the match (18 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Southern California above 50 · Michigan St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+14.6% USCrally 201 · set 5

Biggest swing: 14.6% to Southern California — set 3, MICHST 24-26 USC. Attack error by Carmen Waye. USC win probability 52% → 66%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MICHST 69.6%30.4% USC

Michigan St. wins

3-0
23.0%
3-1
26.7%
3-2
19.9%

Southern California wins

3-0
5.8%
3-1
10.7%
3-2
13.9%
MICHST break %
42.8% vs this opp
USC break %
38.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Carmen WayeAttack error+14.6%

    Attack error by Carmen Waye

    Set 3 · MICHST 24-26 USC · USC 52% → 66%

  2. 02

    Kill by Karolina Staniszewska (set by Malayah Long)

    Set 5 · MICHST 10-9 USC · MICHST 52% → 67%

  3. 03
    Milly McGeeBad set+13.9%

    Bad set by Milly McGee

    Set 3 · MICHST 24-24 USC · MICHST 44% → 58%

  4. 04
    Milly McGeeBad set+13.5%

    Bad set by Milly McGee

    Set 5 · MICHST 11-9 USC · MICHST 67% → 80%

  5. 05
    Adonia FaumuinaKill+13.0%

    Kill by Adonia Faumuina

    Set 5 · MICHST 7-8 USC · USC 43% → 56%

  6. 06
    Malayah LongKill+11.6%

    Kill by Malayah Long (set by Lia Schneider)

    Set 5 · MICHST 7-6 USC · MICHST 53% → 65%

  7. 07
    London WijayAttack error+11.2%

    Attack error by London Wijay

    Set 5 · MICHST 6-6 USC · MICHST 42% → 53%

  8. 08
    Southern CaliforniaAce+10.9%

    Southern California ace on Karolina Staniszewska

    Set 3 · MICHST 22-24 USC · USC 49% → 60%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
516327.48110020010.516.5
514636.222000103010.514.5
513322.45510310031.514.5
58316.313000501019
5307.429651191010.54.5
47421.143010810219
5000–011100001
5012-.500004700000
5000–4031200000
317431.4190118100018
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals7824162.33371413636185107
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
511533.1821305004216
510117.52900130153.513.5
512246.2172009102113
57314.28601200153.511.5
59429.1720002002110
5013-.333331222031.52.5
5000–011700001
5000–000100000
5000–5001510000
1102.500000000001
1000–200100000
Team totals5016144.236436645422112.594

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MICHST · USC 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 2 MICHSTUSC 6

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 5 MICHSTUSC 3

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 3 MICHSTUSC 5

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 6 MICHSTUSC 3

Set 5

15-11

Longest run 4 MICHSTUSC 3

Bars above the line = Southern California leads, below = Michigan St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Michigan St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
61%11/18
55%11/20
2
58%11/19
54%13/24
3
50%10/20
44%8/18
4
56%9/16
44%8/18
5
62%8/13
47%7/15
6
88%7/8
33%4/12
All
60%56/94
48%51/107

Southern California

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%11/27
33%4/12
2
61%11/18
35%6/17
3
50%10/20
42%8/19
4
82%9/11
52%11/21
5
44%8/18
43%6/14
6
54%7/13
27%3/11
All
52%56/107
40%38/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

201 rallies

#MICHST-USCSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MICHSTMICHSTAceMichigan St.aced Taylor Deckert+2.4
21-1MICHSTUSC×4Serve errMichigan St.+1.6
31-2USCUSC×4BlockedHayley Ogdenblk London Wijay, Leah Ford+2.5
41-3USCUSC×4AceSouthern Californiaaced Madi Andrews+2.6
51-4USCUSC×4BlockedAlanna Bankstonblk Abigail Mullen, Leah Ford+2.6
62-4USCMICHSTBlockedAbigail Mullenblk Carmen Waye, Alanna Bankston+1.6
72-5MICHSTUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+1.8
82-6USCUSCAttack errMadi Andrews+2.6
93-6USCMICHSTServe errSouthern California+1.5
103-7MICHSTUSC×6KillLondon Wijayset Taylor Deckert+1.8
113-8USCUSC×6Attack errMadi Andrews+2.4
123-9USCUSC×6AceSouthern Californiaaced Alanna Bankston+2.1
133-10USCUSC×6KillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+1.7
143-11USCUSC×6Attack errHayley Ogden+1.4
153-12USCUSC×6KillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+1.0
164-12USCMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+0.4
175-12MICHSTMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Taylor Deckert+0.9
185-13MICHSTUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+0.9
195-14USCUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+0.9
206-14USCMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+0.4
217-14MICHSTMICHSTKillZora Hardison+0.8
227-15MICHSTUSCAttack errZora Hardison+0.8
238-15USCMICHSTKillMalayah Longset Lia Schneider+0.5
248-16MICHSTUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset London Wijay+0.7
259-16USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+0.4
2610-16MICHSTMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.0
2710-17MICHSTUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+0.9
2811-17USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+0.6
2912-17MICHSTMICHSTBlockedAbigail Mullenblk Carmen Waye, Madi Andrews+1.3
3012-18MICHSTUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+1.2
3113-18USCMICHSTServe errSouthern California+0.8
3213-19MICHSTUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+1.2
3314-19USCMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+0.7
3414-20MICHSTUSC×3KillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+1.1
3514-21USCUSC×3BlockedZora Hardisonblk Adonia Faumuina, Mia Tvrdy+0.9
3614-22USCUSC×3Attack errMadi Andrews+0.4
3715-22USCMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+0.1
3816-22MICHSTMICHSTAttack errAdonia Faumuina+0.3
3916-23MICHSTUSCBlockedAlanna Bankstonblk Mia Tvrdy, Milly McGee+0.4
4017-23USCMICHSTServe errSouthern California+0.1
4118-23MICHSTMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Milly McGee+0.3
4218-24MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+0.5
4318-25USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Alanna Bankston+0.1
Set 2
10-1USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuina+3.0
20-2USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+3.1
31-2USCMICHST×3Serve errSouthern California+1.9
42-2MICHSTMICHST×3Attack errLeah Ford+3.0
53-2MICHSTMICHST×3Bad setMilly McGee+3.0
63-3MICHSTUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Taylor Deckert+2.0
74-3USCMICHST×4KillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+2.0
85-3MICHSTMICHST×4KillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+2.9
96-3MICHSTMICHST×4Attack errAbigail Mullen+2.7
107-3MICHSTMICHST×4BlockedLeah Fordblk Madi Andrews, Zora Hardison+2.4
117-4MICHSTUSCKillAbigail Mullenset London Wijay+1.4
128-4USCMICHST×5KillMadi Andrewsset Paisley Douglas+1.6
139-4MICHSTMICHST×5KillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+2.0
1410-4MICHSTMICHST×5KillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+1.6
1511-4MICHSTMICHST×5AceMichigan St.aced Milly McGee+1.2
1612-4MICHSTMICHST×5KillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+0.9
1712-5MICHSTUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+0.4
1813-5USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+0.6
1913-6MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+0.4
2014-6USCMICHST×3KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+0.5
2115-6MICHSTMICHST×3KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+0.5
2216-6MICHSTMICHST×3KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+0.3
2316-7MICHSTUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Lilli Etter+0.1
2417-7USCMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+0.2
2517-8MICHSTUSCKillQuinn Loperset Lilli Etter+0.1
2617-9USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuina+0.2
2718-9USCMICHST×4KillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+0.2
2819-9MICHSTMICHST×4Attack errLeah Ford+0.2
2920-9MICHSTMICHST×4KillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+0.1
3021-9MICHSTMICHST×4KillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long·
3121-10MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.·
3222-10USCMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long·
3323-10MICHSTMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long·
3423-11MICHSTUSC×3Serve errMichigan St.·
3523-12USCUSC×3Attack errMadi Andrews·
3623-13USCUSC×3Bad setMalayah Long·
3724-13USCMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long·
3824-14MICHSTUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee·
3925-14USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Lia Schneider·
Set 3
10-1MICHSTUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Taylor Deckert+2.3
21-1USCMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+2.2
31-2MICHSTUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+2.3
41-3USCUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+3.6
52-3USCMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+2.3
62-4MICHSTUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.5
73-4USCMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+2.3
83-5MICHSTUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+2.5
94-5USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+2.3
105-5MICHSTMICHSTAttack errMilly McGee+3.7
115-6MICHSTUSCBlockedAlanna Bankstonblk Mia Tvrdy, Milly McGee+2.6
125-7USCUSCBlockedHayley Ogdenblk Adonia Faumuina, Leah Ford+4.0
136-7USCMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+2.5
146-8MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+2.7
157-8USCMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+2.5
167-9MICHSTUSCBlockedZora Hardisonblk Leah Ford+2.8
177-10USCUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Malayah Long+4.1
188-10USCMICHSTServe errSouthern California+2.4
198-11MICHSTUSC×5Serve errMichigan St.+2.9
208-12USCUSC×5Attack errTaylah Holdem+3.9
218-13USCUSC×5AceSouthern Californiaaced Alanna Bankston+3.4
228-14USCUSC×5KillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.8
238-15USCUSC×5KillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+2.1
249-15USCMICHST×3KillKarolina Staniszewskaset Zora Hardison+0.9
2510-15MICHSTMICHST×3KillZora Hardison+1.9
2611-15MICHSTMICHST×3AceMichigan St.aced Milly McGee+2.6
2711-16MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+2.3
2812-16USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+1.7
2912-17MICHSTUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+2.3
3013-17USCMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.6
3114-17MICHSTMICHSTAttack errAdonia Faumuina+3.3
3214-18MICHSTUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Taylor Deckert+3.0
3314-19USCUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+3.4
3415-19USCMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.4
3515-20MICHSTUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Milly McGee+2.2
3616-20USCMICHST×3KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.3
3717-20MICHSTMICHST×3Attack errAbigail Mullen+3.0
3818-20MICHSTMICHST×3KillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+4.3
3918-21MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+4.1
4019-21USCMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+2.8
4120-21MICHSTMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+6.1
4220-22MICHSTUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+5.6
4321-22USCMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+4.1
4422-22MICHSTMICHSTKillZora Hardison+8.9
4522-23MICHSTUSCBlockedAlanna Bankstonblk Abigail Mullen, Mia Tvrdy+7.4
4622-24USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Karolina Staniszewska+10.9
4723-24USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+3.8
4824-24MICHSTMICHSTBad setMilly McGee+13.9
4924-25MICHSTUSCKillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+9.1
5024-26USCUSCAttack errCarmen Waye+14.6
Set 4
11-0USCMICHST×3Serve errSouthern California+2.5
22-0MICHSTMICHST×3KillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+3.6
33-0MICHSTMICHST×3KillKarolina Staniszewskaset Carmen Waye+3.4
43-1MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+2.1
53-2USCUSCKillLeah Fordset Hayley Ogden+3.6
64-2USCMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+2.5
74-3MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+2.5
85-3USCMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+2.6
95-4MICHSTUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Taylor Deckert+2.5
105-5USCUSCAceSouthern Californiaaced Malayah Long+4.2
116-5USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+2.8
126-6MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+2.9
136-7USCUSCAttack errCarmen Waye+4.6
147-7USCMICHSTBlockedAdonia Faumuinablk Carmen Waye, Malayah Long+3.0
157-8MICHSTUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+3.2
168-8USCMICHST×6KillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+3.1
179-8MICHSTMICHST×6Attack errAdonia Faumuina+4.7
1810-8MICHSTMICHST×6KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+4.5
1911-8MICHSTMICHST×6AceMichigan St.aced London Wijay+4.0
2012-8MICHSTMICHST×6KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+3.5
2113-8MICHSTMICHST×6KillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+2.8
2213-9MICHSTUSCBlockedKarolina Staniszewskablk Leah Ford, Milly McGee+1.5
2314-9USCMICHST×4KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.9
2415-9MICHSTMICHST×4Attack errAbigail Mullen+2.1
2516-9MICHSTMICHST×4KillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+1.4
2617-9MICHSTMICHST×4KillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+0.9
2717-10MICHSTUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+0.3
2817-11USCUSCBlockedKarolina Staniszewskablk Leah Ford, Abigail Mullen+0.8
2918-11USCMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+0.8
3018-12MICHSTUSCServe errMichigan St.+0.5
3119-12USCMICHST×3KillMalayah Longset Lia Schneider+0.8
3220-12MICHSTMICHST×3KillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+0.6
3321-12MICHSTMICHST×3KillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+0.3
3421-13MICHSTUSC×3KillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+0.1
3521-14USCUSC×3KillLondon Wijay+0.2
3621-15USCUSC×3KillLondon Wijayset Milly McGee+0.4
3722-15USCMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+0.5
3822-16MICHSTUSCKillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+0.2
3922-17USCUSCBlockedCarmen Wayeblk Mia Tvrdy+0.5
4023-17USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+0.7
4124-17MICHSTMICHSTAttack errMia Tvrdy+0.3
4224-18MICHSTUSCKillAdonia Faumuinaset Abigail Mullen·
4325-18USCMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+1.4
Set 5
10-1MICHSTUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+6.2
21-1USCMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+5.9
31-2MICHSTUSCKillAbigail Mullenset Milly McGee+6.4
42-2USCMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+6.2
52-3MICHSTUSC×3KillLondon Wijayset Taylor Deckert+6.7
62-4USCUSC×3KillMia Tvrdyset Milly McGee+10.2
72-5USCUSC×3Attack errAlanna Bankston+9.9
83-5USCMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+5.5
93-6MICHSTUSCAttack errAlanna Bankston+6.8
104-6USCMICHST×4KillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+5.6
115-6MICHSTMICHST×4KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+10.1
126-6MICHSTMICHST×4Attack errLondon Wijay+11.2
137-6MICHSTMICHST×4KillMalayah Longset Lia Schneider+11.6
147-7MICHSTUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+7.7
157-8USCUSCKillAdonia Faumuina+13.0
168-8USCMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+8.3
178-9MICHSTUSCKillLeah Fordset Milly McGee+9.4
189-9USCMICHST×3KillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+8.9
1910-9MICHSTMICHST×3KillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+14.5
2011-9MICHSTMICHST×3Bad setMilly McGee+13.5
2111-10MICHSTUSCAttack errKarolina Staniszewska+7.4
2212-10USCMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+9.7
2313-10MICHSTMICHSTBlockedLondon Wijayblk Hayley Ogden+10.8
2413-11MICHSTUSCBlockedKarolina Staniszewskablk London Wijay, Mia Tvrdy, Abigail Mullen+3.8
2514-11USCMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+7.1
2615-11MICHSTMICHSTKillKarolina Staniszewskaset Malayah Long+3.6

Score shown after each rally, Michigan St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).