Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 15, 2026Watch on BTN

Illinois def. Michigan St. 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois 54.3% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Illinois beat visiting Michigan St. 3-1 (25-22, 25-23, 21-25, 25-22) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Madi Miles led Illinois with 15 kills; Michigan St.'s Alanna Bankston had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Oct 15

Set1234Sets
MICHST222325221
ILL252521253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Unranked Illinois took down No. 22 Michigan St.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Illinois's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Illinois at 54%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Michigan St. 13–17 Illinois

    Down 13–17, Michigan St. scored 5 straight to lead 18–17.

    Illinois 84% → 68%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · Michigan St. 15–13 Illinois

    Illinois scored 4 straight to turn a 13–15 deficit into a 17–15 lead.

    Illinois 68% → 86%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · Michigan St. 21–22 Illinois

    3 of the last 4 rallies went to Illinois, enough to take the set 25–22 and win the match 3–1.

    Illinois 84% → >99%

Illinois above 50Michigan St. belowMax swing 8.3%

Michigan St.Illinois

Sideout %
Michigan St. 61.1·Illinois 63.4
Break %
Michigan St. 36.6·Illinois 38.9
Hitting
Michigan St. .215·Illinois .261
Longest run
Michigan St. 7·Illinois 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Illinois above 50 · Michigan St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+8.3% ILLrally 188 · set 4

Biggest swing: 8.3% to Illinois — set 4, MICHST 21-23 ILL. Alanna Bankston stuffed by Paityn Chapman & Ashlyn Philpot. ILL win probability 84% → 92%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MICHST 44.3%55.7% ILL

Michigan St. wins

3-0
10.2%
3-1
16.4%
3-2
17.7%

Illinois wins

3-0
15.1%
3-1
21.1%
3-2
19.5%
MICHST break %
41.2% vs this opp
ILL break %
42.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Alanna Bankston stuffed by Paityn Chapman & Ashlyn Philpot

    Set 4 · MICHST 21-23 ILL · ILL 84% → 92%

  2. 02
    Alyssa AguayoKill+6.8%

    Kill by Alyssa Aguayo (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 4 · MICHST 22-24 ILL · ILL 88% → 95%

  3. 03

    Kill by Alanna Bankston (set by Malayah Long)

    Set 4 · MICHST 20-20 ILL · MICHST 16% → 22%

  4. 04
    Alanna BankstonAttack error+6.6%

    Attack error by Alanna Bankston

    Set 2 · MICHST 23-25 ILL · ILL 82% → 89%

  5. 05
    Madi MilesBlock+6.2%

    Zora Hardison stuffed by Madi Miles

    Set 4 · MICHST 18-20 ILL · ILL 82% → 88%

  6. 06
    Alyssa AguayoKill+6.1%

    Kill by Alyssa Aguayo (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 4 · MICHST 21-22 ILL · ILL 78% → 84%

  7. 07
    Madi MilesAttack error+5.5%

    Attack error by Madi Miles

    Set 4 · MICHST 17-17 ILL · MICHST 17% → 23%

  8. 08

    Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 4 · MICHST 20-21 ILL · ILL 78% → 83%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420753.24500041031.521.5
415734.2350316100018
46420.1000213012210
43213.077000100425
4308.37538031100214
4000–112700001
45015.33300000010.55.5
4000–102200000
4000–6011710000
3011-1.000300200000
2000–001000000
Team totals5221144.21549611535112792
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413842.11901460052.516.5
411116.62500030132.513.5
48118.3890001004210
48327.1852121110009
4112.000023500003
4114.000490090010.51.5
415533.30300031111.516.5
4000–013000001
4000–4002020000
1000–000000000
Team totals5720142.26155512586214996

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 MICHST · ILL 4

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 4 MICHSTILL 4

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 5 MICHSTILL 4

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 7 MICHSTILL 3

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 5 MICHSTILL 4

Bars above the line = Illinois leads, below = Michigan St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Michigan St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%12/18
55%12/22
2
61%11/18
42%8/19
3
59%10/17
8%1/12
4
60%9/15
9%1/11
5
80%8/10
36%5/14
6
47%8/17
47%7/15
All
61%58/95
37%34/93

Illinois

SlotSideout %Break %
1
41%12/29
47%9/19
2
85%11/13
37%7/19
3
83%10/12
44%8/18
4
83%10/12
33%5/15
5
50%8/16
38%5/13
6
73%8/11
27%3/11
All
63%59/93
39%37/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

188 rallies

#MICHST-ILLSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MICHSTMICHSTAttack errZora Hardison+2.6
21-1MICHSTILLKillMaya Harrisset Kenna Phelan+1.8
32-1ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+1.9
42-2MICHSTILL×3Serve errLia Schneider+1.8
52-3ILLILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.6
62-4ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.6
73-4ILLMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.8
83-5MICHSTILLServe errMalayah Long+1.9
94-5ILLMICHSTServe errPaityn Chapman+1.8
104-6MICHSTILLAttack errMadi Andrews+1.9
115-6ILLMICHST×3KillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+1.9
126-6MICHSTMICHST×3AceCarmen Wayeaced Talita Goncalves+2.8
137-6MICHSTMICHST×3AceCarmen Wayeaced Madi Miles+2.9
147-7MICHSTILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.1
158-7ILLMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+2.2
168-8MICHSTILL×4KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.1
178-9ILLILL×4Attack errMadi Andrews+3.1
188-10ILLILL×4KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+3.0
198-11ILLILL×4Attack errZora Hardison+2.8
209-11ILLMICHST×4KillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+1.8
2110-11MICHSTMICHST×4BlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Zora Hardison, Malayah Long+3.0
2211-11MICHSTMICHST×4Attack errMadi Miles+3.3
2312-11MICHSTMICHST×4AceMadi Andrewsaced Alyssa Aguayo+3.4
2412-12MICHSTILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.4
2513-12ILLMICHSTAttack errAlyssa Aguayo+2.5
2613-13MICHSTILLServe errAlana Whitfield+2.5
2714-13ILLMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+2.7
2814-14MICHSTILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+2.6
2915-14ILLMICHSTAttack errAshlyn Philpot+2.8
3015-15MICHSTILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+2.7
3115-16ILLILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+4.1
3216-16ILLMICHSTServe errAlyssa Aguayo+2.9
3316-17MICHSTILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+3.0
3417-17ILLMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Lia Schneider+3.0
3518-17MICHSTMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+4.6
3618-18MICHSTILL×3Serve errSarah Vellucci+3.2
3718-19ILLILL×3KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+4.9
3818-20ILLILL×3KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+4.8
3919-20ILLMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+2.9
4019-21MICHSTILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+3.7
4120-21ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Lia Schneider+3.1
4220-22MICHSTILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+4.0
4321-22ILLMICHSTKillMalayah Long+3.2
4421-23MICHSTILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+4.5
4522-23ILLMICHSTServe errPaityn Chapman+3.2
4622-24MICHSTILLServe errKy Clayton+5.3
4722-25ILLILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+4.0
Set 2
11-0ILLMICHSTAttack errMadi Miles+1.7
22-0MICHSTMICHSTAttack errPaityn Chapman+2.5
32-1MICHSTILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.7
43-1ILLMICHSTServe errMaya Harris+1.8
53-2MICHSTILLBlockedCarmen Wayeblk Kristina Starostenko, Paityn Chapman+1.7
63-3ILLILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Malayah Long+2.5
74-3ILLMICHSTAttack errPaityn Chapman+1.9
85-3MICHSTMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+2.6
95-4MICHSTILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.8
106-4ILLMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+1.9
116-5MICHSTILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.8
127-5ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+2.0
138-5MICHSTMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+2.7
148-6MICHSTILLServe errSarah Vellucci+1.7
158-7ILLILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.7
169-7ILLMICHSTServe errTaryn Kirsch+2.1
179-8MICHSTILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+1.9
189-9ILLILLAttack errAlanna Bankston+3.0
1910-9ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Lia Schneider+2.2
2010-10MICHSTILLBlockedAlanna Bankstonblk Madi Miles, Kristina Starostenko+2.2
2111-10ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+2.3
2211-11MICHSTILL×4KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+2.2
2311-12ILLILL×4KillAlyssa Aguayoset Talita Goncalves+3.3
2411-13ILLILL×4Bad setMalayah Long+3.2
2511-14ILLILL×4KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+3.0
2612-14ILLMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.9
2712-15MICHSTILLBlockedMadi Andrewsblk Paityn Chapman, Ashlyn Philpot+2.2
2813-15ILLMICHSTServe errPaityn Chapman+1.9
2913-16MICHSTILLServe errCarmen Waye+2.2
3013-17ILLILLKillMadi Milesset Alyssa Aguayo+2.7
3114-17ILLMICHST×5Serve errAlyssa Aguayo+1.5
3215-17MICHSTMICHST×5Attack errPaityn Chapman+2.8
3316-17MICHSTMICHST×5KillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+3.5
3417-17MICHSTMICHST×5KillMadi Andrewsset Sarah Vellucci+4.1
3518-17MICHSTMICHST×5AceSarah Vellucciaced Talita Goncalves+4.4
3618-18MICHSTILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+3.1
3718-19ILLILLAceTaryn Kirsch+4.7
3819-19ILLMICHSTServe errTaryn Kirsch+3.3
3919-20MICHSTILLKillKenna Phelan+3.6
4019-21ILLILLBlockedAlanna Bankstonblk Kristina Starostenko, Paityn Chapman+5.0
4120-21ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+2.9
4220-22MICHSTILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+3.9
4321-22ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+3.0
4421-23MICHSTILLServe errMalayah Long+4.3
4522-23ILLMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+3.1
4622-24MICHSTILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+5.1
4723-24ILLMICHSTServe errPaityn Chapman+2.8
4823-25MICHSTILLAttack errAlanna Bankston+6.6
Set 3
10-1MICHSTILL×3KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+1.1
20-2ILLILL×3Bad setSarah Vellucci+1.6
30-3ILLILL×3AceMaya Harrisaced Alanna Bankston+1.5
41-3ILLMICHSTBlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Alanna Bankston, Zora Hardison+1.0
51-4MICHSTILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.1
62-4ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+1.0
73-4MICHSTMICHSTBlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Alanna Bankston, Carmen Waye+1.6
83-5MICHSTILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.2
93-6ILLILL×3Attack errCarmen Waye+1.6
103-7ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Talita Goncalves+1.4
114-7ILLMICHSTAttack errAlyssa Aguayo+0.9
124-8MICHSTILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.0
135-8ILLMICHSTBlockedMadi Milesblk Hayley Ogden, Carmen Waye+0.9
146-8MICHSTMICHSTAttack errKenna Phelan+1.5
156-9MICHSTILLKillMadi Milesset Alyssa Aguayo+1.2
167-9ILLMICHSTKillMalayah Long+1.1
177-10MICHSTILLAttack errMadi Andrews+1.2
187-11ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.6
198-11ILLMICHST×7KillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+1.0
209-11MICHSTMICHST×7AceMadi Andrews+1.6
2110-11MICHSTMICHST×7AceMadi Andrews+1.8
2211-11MICHSTMICHST×7BlockedMadi Milesblk Zora Hardison, Alanna Bankston+2.0
2312-11MICHSTMICHST×7BlockedKristina Starostenkoblk Zora Hardison, Malayah Long+2.2
2413-11MICHSTMICHST×7Attack errPaityn Chapman+2.2
2514-11MICHSTMICHST×7KillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+2.0
2614-12MICHSTILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.3
2714-13ILLILLAceMaya Harrisaced Lia Schneider+2.1
2815-13ILLMICHSTServe errMaya Harris+1.7
2915-14MICHSTILLServe errKy Clayton+1.5
3015-15ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.4
3116-15ILLMICHSTKillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.8
3216-16MICHSTILLAttack errMadi Andrews+1.8
3317-16ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+1.9
3417-17MICHSTILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.9
3517-18ILLILLBlockedMadi Andrewsblk Kenna Phelan, Ashlyn Philpot+2.9
3618-18ILLMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+2.0
3718-19MICHSTILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.2
3819-19ILLMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Karolina Staniszewska+2.2
3920-19MICHSTMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+3.4
4020-20MICHSTILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.3
4121-20ILLMICHSTKillZora Hardisonset Malayah Long+2.7
4222-20MICHSTMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+3.7
4322-21MICHSTILLServe errMadi Andrews+2.0
4423-21ILLMICHST×3Attack errAlyssa Aguayo+3.0
4524-21MICHSTMICHST×3KillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+3.0
4625-21MICHSTMICHST×3KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+1.1
Set 4
11-0ILLMICHST×5Serve errMaya Harris+2.3
22-0MICHSTMICHST×5Attack errPaityn Chapman+3.3
33-0MICHSTMICHST×5KillCarmen Wayeset Malayah Long+3.2
44-0MICHSTMICHST×5KillAlanna Bankstonset Ky Clayton+3.0
55-0MICHSTMICHST×5BlockedMaya Harrisblk Carmen Waye+2.8
65-1MICHSTILL×3KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.7
75-2ILLILL×3Attack errMadi Andrews+2.8
85-3ILLILL×3Attack errCarmen Waye+3.1
96-3ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+2.4
106-4MICHSTILLServe errMalayah Long+2.2
117-4ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Lia Schneider+2.5
127-5MICHSTILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+2.3
138-5ILLMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Karolina Staniszewska+2.5
149-5MICHSTMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Karolina Staniszewska+3.3
159-6MICHSTILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.0
169-7ILLILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+3.3
1710-7ILLMICHSTServe errTaryn Kirsch+2.7
1810-8MICHSTILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+2.4
1911-8ILLMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Malayah Long+2.7
2011-9MICHSTILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.4
2111-10ILLILLBlockedAlanna Bankstonblk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko+3.9
2212-10ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+3.1
2313-10MICHSTMICHSTBad setKenna Phelan+4.1
2413-11MICHSTILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.5
2513-12ILLILLAttack errAlanna Bankston+4.1
2614-12ILLMICHSTKillMalayah Long+3.3
2714-13MICHSTILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+3.0
2815-13ILLMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+3.4
2915-14MICHSTILL×4BlockedCarmen Wayeblk Ashlyn Philpot+3.1
3015-15ILLILL×4Attack errKarolina Staniszewska+5.0
3115-16ILLILL×4KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+5.2
3215-17ILLILL×4AceAlyssa Aguayo+5.1
3316-17ILLMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Lia Schneider+3.3
3417-17MICHSTMICHSTAttack errMadi Miles+5.5
3517-18MICHSTILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+4.2
3618-18ILLMICHSTKillHayley Ogdenset Malayah Long+4.1
3718-19MICHSTILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+4.5
3818-20ILLILLBlockedZora Hardisonblk Madi Miles+6.2
3919-20ILLMICHSTKillMadi Andrewsset Lia Schneider+3.8
4020-20MICHSTMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+6.8
4120-21MICHSTILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+5.4
4221-21ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+5.3
4321-22MICHSTILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+6.1
4421-23ILLILLBlockedAlanna Bankstonblk Paityn Chapman, Ashlyn Philpot+8.3
4522-23ILLMICHSTKillAlanna Bankstonset Malayah Long+4.1
4622-24MICHSTILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+6.8
4722-25ILLILLAcePaityn Chapmanaced Madi Andrews+5.2

Score shown after each rally, Michigan St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).