Michigan State vs Maryland: Michigan State Wins 3-0 (Oct 25)

FinalSun, Oct 25, 2026BTN

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Michigan St. 83.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 25, 10:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Michigan St. won at Maryland 3-0 (25-13, 25-23, 25-23) on Sun, Oct 25, 2026. Michigan St.'s Madi Andrews led with 12 kills, and Lia Schneider added 10 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 10:10 PM CT · final Oct 25

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MICHST	25	25	25	3
MD	13	23	23	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Michigan St. won 39 of 74 points on its own serve.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.0 points. Maryland peaked at 18% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. Michigan St. went in as RallyIQ's 84% pick.

Michigan St.Maryland

Break %+12.7 pts
52.740.0
On serve: 39/74 against 24/60 (Maryland sideout 47.3%).
Hitting+.129
.276.147
45 kills, 18 errors vs 33 kills, 18 errors.
Longest run+7
125
Down 3–4 in the first set, Michigan St. scored 12 straight to lead 15–4. That set ended 25–13.

Maryland above 50Michigan St. belowMax swing 4.0%

Michigan St.Maryland

Aces: Michigan St. 6·Maryland 3
Serve err: Michigan St. 4·Maryland 5
Blocks: Michigan St. 11·Maryland 61 BS · 20 BA vs 3 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Michigan St. 39·Maryland 29

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Maryland above 50 · Michigan St. below

Biggest swing: 4.0% to Michigan St. — set 2, MICHST 25-23 MD. Kill by Madi Andrews (set by Lia Schneider). MD win probability 7% → 3%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MICHST 83.2%16.8% MD

Michigan St. wins

3-0

34.9%

3-1

31.0%

3-2

17.3%

Maryland wins

3-0

2.6%

3-1

5.5%

3-2

8.8%

MICHST break %: 45.4% vs this opp
MD break %: 38.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Madi AndrewsKill+4.0%
Kill by Madi Andrews (set by Lia Schneider)
Set 2 · MICHST 25-23 MD · MICHST 93% → 97%
02
Sydney BryantKill+3.6%
Kill by Sydney Bryant (set by Sara Toth)
Set 2 · MICHST 23-23 MD · MD 7% → 10%
03
Malayah LongKill+3.3%
Kill by Malayah Long (set by Madi Andrews)
Set 2 · MICHST 24-23 MD · MICHST 90% → 93%
04
Eva RohrbachAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Eva Rohrbach
Set 2 · MICHST 17-17 MD · MICHST 88% → 90%
05
Hayley OgdenKill+2.1%
Kill by Hayley Ogden (set by Malayah Long)
Set 2 · MICHST 18-17 MD · MICHST 90% → 92%
06
Raina ChwialkowskiAce+2.1%
Ace by Raina Chwialkowski on Bianca Mumcular
Set 2 · MICHST 13-16 MD · MD 13% → 15%
07
Carmen WayeAttack error+2.1%
Attack error by Carmen Waye
Set 2 · MICHST 13-15 MD · MD 11% → 13%
08
Hayley OgdenKill+2.0%
Kill by Hayley Ogden (set by Malayah Long)
Set 2 · MICHST 16-17 MD · MICHST 85% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Michigan St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Madi AndrewsOH	3	12	5	28	.250	1	0	1	9	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
22Carmen WayeMB	3	8	2	14	.429	0	2	0	4	0	1	2	2	12
15Zora HardisonMB	3	4	2	8	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	4	8
7Malayah LongS	3	3	0	5	.600	37	0	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
3Bianca MumcularOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	1
28Alanna BankstonOH	2	3	3	11	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
19Hayley OgdenOPP	3	7	3	15	.267	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	3.5	10.5
2Karolina StaniszewskaOH	3	7	3	16	.250	1	2	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
5Ky ClaytonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
1Lia SchneiderL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
13Sarah VellucciL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		45	18	98	.276	44	6	4	39	3	1	20	11	75

Marylandhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
24Brooklynne BrassOH	3	10	2	28	.286	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	0	11
44Eva RohrbachMB	3	8	3	20	.250	1	0	1	1	0	2	2	3	11
3Ava BrownOH	3	7	4	24	.125	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
18Sara TothS	3	1	0	3	.333	25	0	1	9	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
4Haley MelbyOH	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
23Duru GökçenMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Sydney BryantOH	3	4	8	18	-.222	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
9Ioanna DimitriouMB	3	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
6Elayna DavidsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	5	2	0	0	0	1
2Raina ChwialkowskiDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1
8Addie CanadyL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
11Marlee SivakOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
5Alex McGillivrayL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		33	18	102	.147	31	3	5	29	6	3	6	6	59

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 12 MICHST · MD 5

Set 1

25-13

Longest run 12 MICHSTMD 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 7 MICHSTMD 5

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 MICHSTMD 3

Bars above the line = Maryland leads, below = Michigan St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Michigan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	64%7/11	25%2/8
2	50%7/14	46%6/13
3	67%6/9	60%9/15
4	60%6/10	45%5/11
5	60%6/10	68%13/19
6	67%4/6	50%4/8
All	60%36/60	53%39/74

Maryland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	29%2/7
2	41%7/17	56%9/16
3	60%6/10	30%3/10
4	67%6/9	45%5/11
5	25%5/20	45%5/11
6	67%4/6	0%0/5
All	47%35/74	40%24/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

134 rallies

#	MICHST-MD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MICHST	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Raina Chwialkowski	+1.2
2	1-1	MD	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+1.1
3	1-2	MICHST	MD	Blocked	Alanna Bankston	blk Eva Rohrbach	+1.2
4	2-2	MD	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+1.1
5	2-3	MICHST	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+1.3
6	3-3	MD	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+1.2
7	3-4	MICHST	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+1.3
8	4-4	MD	MICHST×12	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+1.2
9	5-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Blocked	Sydney Bryant	blk Zora Hardison, Hayley Ogden	+1.6
10	6-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Blocked	Sydney Bryant	blk Zora Hardison, Hayley Ogden	+1.5
11	7-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+1.3
12	8-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Blocked	Sydney Bryant	blk Zora Hardison	+1.1
13	9-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.9
14	10-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.7
15	11-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Kill	Hayley Ogden		+0.5
16	12-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Attack err	Duru Gökçen		+0.3
17	13-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.2
18	14-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Attack err	Sydney Bryant		+0.1
19	15-4	MICHST	MICHST×12	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.1
20	15-5	MICHST	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	·
21	16-5	MD	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Lia Schneider	·
22	17-5	MICHST	MICHST	Blocked	Ava Brown	blk Zora Hardison, Madi Andrews	·
23	17-6	MICHST	MD	Kill	Marlee Sivak	set Sara Toth	·
24	17-7	MD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	·
25	18-7	MD	MICHST	Kill	Malayah Long	set Karolina Staniszewska	·
26	19-7	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Bianca Mumcular	set Malayah Long	·
27	19-8	MICHST	MD×4	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	·
28	19-9	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Zora Hardison		·
29	19-10	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Zora Hardison		·
30	19-11	MD	MD×4	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Haley Melby	+0.1
31	20-11	MD	MICHST×3	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.1
32	21-11	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Ava Brown		·
33	22-11	MICHST	MICHST×3	Serve err	Michigan St.		·
34	22-12	MICHST	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	·
35	22-13	MD	MD	Ace	Elayna Davidson		·
36	23-13	MD	MICHST×3	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	·
37	24-13	MICHST	MICHST×3	Attack err	Brooklynne Brass		·
38	25-13	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Lia Schneider	·
Set 2
1	1-0	MD	MICHST×3	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.7
2	2-0	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	Ky Clayton	aced Haley Melby	+1.0
3	3-0	MICHST	MICHST×3	Serve err	Michigan St.		+0.9
4	3-1	MICHST	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.6
5	3-2	MD	MD	Attack err	Madi Andrews		+1.0
6	4-2	MD	MICHST	Serve err	Maryland		+0.7
7	5-2	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Alanna Bankston	set Malayah Long	+0.9
8	5-3	MICHST	MD	Serve err	Michigan St.		+0.6
9	5-4	MD	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Raina Chwialkowski	+1.0
10	6-4	MD	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.7
11	7-4	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Lia Schneider	+0.9
12	7-5	MICHST	MD×4	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.7
13	7-6	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Madi Andrews		+1.1
14	7-7	MD	MD×4	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Raina Chwialkowski	+1.3
15	7-8	MD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Eva Rohrbach	+1.5
16	8-8	MD	MICHST	Blocked	Sydney Bryant	blk Carmen Waye	+1.0
17	8-9	MICHST	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+1.1
18	8-10	MD	MD	Serve err	Maryland		+1.7
19	9-10	MD	MICHST	Blocked	Sydney Bryant	blk Hayley Ogden, Zora Hardison	+1.1
20	10-10	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+1.5
21	10-11	MICHST	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+1.2
22	11-11	MD	MICHST	Kill	Malayah Long	set Bianca Mumcular	+1.1
23	11-12	MICHST	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+1.3
24	12-12	MD	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+1.2
25	13-12	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	Ky Clayton	aced Haley Melby	+1.6
26	13-13	MICHST	MD×5	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+1.2
27	13-14	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Alanna Bankston		+1.9
28	13-15	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Carmen Waye		+2.1
29	13-16	MD	MD×5	Ace	Raina Chwialkowski	aced Bianca Mumcular	+2.1
30	13-17	MD	MD×5	Blocked	Alanna Bankston	blk Ava Brown, Eva Rohrbach	+2.0
31	14-17	MD	MICHST×7	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.0
32	15-17	MICHST	MICHST×7	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+1.8
33	16-17	MICHST	MICHST×7	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+2.0
34	17-17	MICHST	MICHST×7	Attack err	Eva Rohrbach		+2.2
35	18-17	MICHST	MICHST×7	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+2.1
36	19-17	MICHST	MICHST×7	Blocked	Brooklynne Brass	blk Carmen Waye	+1.9
37	20-17	MICHST	MICHST×7	Attack err	Ava Brown		+1.5
38	20-18	MICHST	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.9
39	21-18	MD	MICHST	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+1.1
40	22-18	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	Karolina Staniszewska	aced Elayna Davidson	+1.0
41	22-19	MICHST	MD	Kill	Sara Toth	set Elayna Davidson	+0.4
42	23-19	MD	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.7
43	23-20	MICHST	MD×4	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.3
44	23-21	MD	MD×4	Blocked	Madi Andrews	blk Ioanna Dimitriou	+1.0
45	23-22	MD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+2.0
46	23-23	MD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+3.6
47	24-23	MD	MICHST	Kill	Malayah Long	set Madi Andrews	+3.3
48	25-23	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Lia Schneider	+4.0
Set 3
1	0-1	MICHST	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.4
2	1-1	MD	MICHST	Kill	Zora Hardison	set Malayah Long	+0.4
3	2-1	MICHST	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.5
4	2-2	MICHST	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.4
5	2-3	MD	MD	Blocked	Madi Andrews	blk Eva Rohrbach, Sara Toth	+0.6
6	3-3	MD	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.4
7	3-4	MICHST	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.5
8	4-4	MD	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.4
9	5-4	MICHST	MICHST	Attack err	Sydney Bryant		+0.6
10	5-5	MICHST	MD	Serve err	Michigan St.		+0.4
11	5-6	MD	MD	Blocked	Hayley Ogden	blk Sydney Bryant, Ioanna Dimitriou	+0.7
12	6-6	MD	MICHST	Serve err	Maryland		+0.4
13	6-7	MICHST	MD	Kill	Ioanna Dimitriou	set Sara Toth	+0.5
14	7-7	MD	MICHST	Serve err	Maryland		+0.5
15	7-8	MICHST	MD	Serve err	Michigan St.		+0.5
16	8-8	MD	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+0.5
17	9-8	MICHST	MICHST	Ace	Karolina Staniszewska	aced Addie Canady	+0.7
18	9-9	MICHST	MD	Attack err	Madi Andrews		+0.5
19	9-10	MD	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.8
20	10-10	MD	MICHST	Serve err	Maryland		+0.5
21	10-11	MICHST	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.6
22	11-11	MD	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.5
23	11-12	MICHST	MD×3	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.6
24	11-13	MD	MD×3	Blocked	Carmen Waye	blk Eva Rohrbach	+0.9
25	11-14	MD	MD×3	Ace	Brooklynne Brass		+1.0
26	12-14	MD	MICHST	Kill	Hayley Ogden	set Malayah Long	+0.6
27	12-15	MICHST	MD	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.7
28	13-15	MD	MICHST×3	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+0.6
29	14-15	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	Carmen Waye	aced Brooklynne Brass	+0.9
30	15-15	MICHST	MICHST×3	Ace	Carmen Waye	aced Elayna Davidson	+0.9
31	15-16	MICHST	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.7
32	16-16	MD	MICHST	Blocked	Sydney Bryant	blk Hayley Ogden, Zora Hardison	+0.7
33	17-16	MICHST	MICHST	Blocked	Ava Brown	blk Malayah Long, Zora Hardison	+1.0
34	17-17	MICHST	MD	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.7
35	17-18	MD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+1.2
36	18-18	MD	MICHST	Serve err	Maryland		+0.8
37	18-19	MICHST	MD	Kill	Ioanna Dimitriou	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.9
38	19-19	MD	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.8
39	19-20	MICHST	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+1.0
40	20-20	MD	MICHST	Kill	Madi Andrews	set Malayah Long	+0.9
41	20-21	MICHST	MD	Serve err	Michigan St.		+1.1
42	21-21	MD	MICHST×3	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+1.0
43	22-21	MICHST	MICHST×3	Blocked	Eva Rohrbach	blk Carmen Waye, Karolina Staniszewska	+1.6
44	23-21	MICHST	MICHST×3	Kill	Carmen Waye	set Malayah Long	+1.3
45	23-22	MICHST	MD	Attack err	Karolina Staniszewska		+0.7
46	24-22	MD	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.1
47	24-23	MICHST	MD	Attack err	Hayley Ogden		+0.6
48	25-23	MD	MICHST	Kill	Karolina Staniszewska	set Malayah Long	+1.3

Score shown after each rally, Michigan St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Michigan St. def. Maryland 3–0

Michigan St. won 39 of 74 points on its own serve.