FinalSun, Aug 30, 2026

AwayACC

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Illinois def. Syracuse 3–0

(25-17, 25-17, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SYR	17	17	14	0
ILL	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ILL above 50 · SYR below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Syracuse — set 1, SYR 9-7 ILL. Kill by Marie Laurio (set by Charis Burge). ILL win probability 97% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SYR 2.1%97.9% ILL

Syracuse wins

3-0

0.2%

3-1

0.5%

3-2

1.4%

Illinois wins

3-0

66.6%

3-1

25.3%

3-2

6.0%

SYR break %: 33.6% vs this opp
ILL break %: 49.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Marie LaurioKill+0.6%
Kill by Marie Laurio (set by Charis Burge)
Set 1 · SYR 9-7 ILL · SYR 3% → 3%
02
Taylor de BoerAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Taylor de Boer
Set 1 · SYR 3-0 ILL · SYR 3% → 3%
03
Paityn ChapmanKill+0.5%
Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · SYR 9-9 ILL · ILL 97% → 97%
04
Abby NicholsonAttack error+0.5%
Attack error by Abby Nicholson
Set 1 · SYR 11-12 ILL · ILL 97% → 98%
05
ILL serverService error+0.4%
Illinois service error
Set 1 · SYR 11-10 ILL · SYR 3% → 3%
06
Taylor de BoerAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Taylor de Boer
Set 1 · SYR 2-0 ILL · SYR 2% → 3%
07
Taylor de BoerKill+0.4%
Kill by Taylor de Boer (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · SYR 6-6 ILL · ILL 97% → 98%
08
Marie LaurioAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Marie Laurio
Set 1 · SYR 12-14 ILL · ILL 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Syracuseaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
8Kiernan StameyOH	3	13	6	29	.241	0	1	9	3	1	0.5	13.5
6Marie LaurioOH	3	11	5	30	.200	0	2	11	1	1	0.5	11.5
23Abby NicholsonMB	3	4	3	11	.091	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
15Emma FaerberMB	3	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
13Aileen McAllisterOH	3	0	3	8	-.375	1	0	3	1	0	0	0
1Charis BurgeS	3	0	0	5	.000	24	0	5	0	0	0	0
14Anna SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
22Mira LedermuellerS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
18Yuka UranoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	7	0	0	0	0
12Keila GabrielOPP	2	2	2	8	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
Team totals		31	19	96	.125	29	4	37	5	4	2	48

Illinoishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BA	BLK	PTS
4Paityn ChapmanOH	3	16	1	34	.441	0	0	2	8	3	1.5	17.5
5Taylor de BoerOH	3	13	5	26	.308	0	0	0	3	1	0.5	13.5
19Alyssa AguayoOH	3	6	1	15	.333	0	1	1	10	2	1	8
7Kenna PhelanS	3	3	0	4	.750	29	2	2	9	0	0	5
14Lindsay OldendorfMB	3	2	0	6	.333	0	0	0	1	3	1.5	3.5
11Kristina StarostenkoMB	2	2	0	4	.500	0	0	0	1	1	0.5	2.5
8Maya HarrisOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	2	5	6	0	0	3
18Talita GoncalvesL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	8	0	0	5	0	0	0
2Taryn KirschL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Vivian CampbellS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
16Ashlyn PhilpotMB	1	1	0	3	.333	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
22Ava WysockiOPP	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
9Madi MilesOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
15Gabby DeanMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Sophi RandallS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	7	100	.400	39	5	10	44	12	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 SYR · ILL 6

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 3 SYRILL 3

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 2 SYRILL 4

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 2 SYRILL 6

Bars above the line = Illinois leads, below = Syracuse leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Syracuse

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	13%1/8
2	58%7/12	27%3/11
3	46%6/13	13%1/8
4	75%6/8	25%2/8
5	50%6/12	14%1/7
6	60%6/10	14%1/7
All	53%39/74	18%9/49

Illinois

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	59%10/17
2	100%8/8	43%6/14
3	75%6/8	60%9/15
4	86%6/7	14%1/7
5	86%6/7	40%4/10
6	75%6/8	45%5/11
All	82%40/49	47%35/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

123 rallies

Rally log

#	SYR-ILL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	ILL	SYR×3	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.3
2	2-0	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+0.4
3	3-0	SYR	SYR×3	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+0.5
4	3-1	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
5	3-2	ILL	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Talita Goncalves	+0.4
6	4-2	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.4
7	4-3	SYR	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
8	5-3	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.4
9	5-4	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+0.3
10	6-4	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.4
11	6-5	SYR	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
12	6-6	ILL	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
13	7-6	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.4
14	7-7	SYR	ILL	Kill	Kenna Phelan		+0.3
15	8-7	ILL	SYR	Kill	Emma Faerber	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
16	9-7	SYR	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.6
17	9-8	SYR	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
18	9-9	ILL	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
19	10-9	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.4
20	10-10	SYR	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
21	11-10	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.4
22	11-11	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
23	11-12	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Abby Nicholson		+0.5
24	12-12	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.4
25	12-13	SYR	ILL	Kill	Lindsay Oldendorf	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
26	12-14	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Marie Laurio		+0.4
27	13-14	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.3
28	13-15	SYR	ILL	Kill	Kenna Phelan	set Mira Ledermueller	+0.3
29	13-16	ILL	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
30	14-16	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.2
31	14-17	SYR	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Talita Goncalves	+0.2
32	14-18	ILL	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer		+0.3
33	15-18	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.1
34	15-19	SYR	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
35	15-20	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Aileen McAllister		+0.2
36	15-21	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Charis Burge	+0.1
37	16-21	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
38	16-22	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
39	16-23	ILL	ILL	Ace	ILL server	aced Kiernan Stamey	+0.0
40	17-23	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.0
41	17-24	SYR	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
42	17-25	ILL	ILL	Kill	Maya Harris	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	SYR	ILL×4	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Talita Goncalves	+0.1
2	0-2	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Aileen McAllister		+0.1
3	0-3	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Marie Laurio	blk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko	+0.1
4	0-4	ILL	ILL×4	Ace	ILL server	aced Kiernan Stamey	+0.1
5	1-4	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Yuka Urano	+0.1
6	1-5	SYR	ILL	Serve err	SYR server		+0.1
7	2-5	ILL	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.1
8	2-6	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
9	3-6	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.1
10	3-7	SYR	ILL	Attack err	Keila Gabriel		+0.1
11	3-8	ILL	ILL	Ace	ILL server	aced Marie Laurio	+0.1
12	4-8	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Yuka Urano	+0.0
13	4-9	SYR	ILL×4	Kill	Lindsay Oldendorf	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
14	4-10	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
15	4-11	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Kenna Phelan	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
16	4-12	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Keila Gabriel		+0.0
17	5-12	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.0
18	6-12	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+0.0
19	6-13	SYR	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
20	7-13	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
21	7-14	SYR	ILL	Attack err	Aileen McAllister		+0.0
22	8-14	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
23	8-15	SYR	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
24	8-16	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Abby Nicholson	blk Alyssa Aguayo, Lindsay Oldendorf	+0.0
25	9-16	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
26	10-16	SYR	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
27	10-17	SYR	ILL	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
28	11-17	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
29	12-17	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo	blk Emma Faerber, Kiernan Stamey	+0.0
30	12-18	SYR	ILL	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
31	13-18	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
32	14-18	SYR	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.1
33	14-19	SYR	ILL	Kill	Madi Miles	set Sophi Randall	+0.1
34	15-19	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Yuka Urano	+0.1
35	15-20	SYR	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Talita Goncalves	+0.1
36	15-21	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer		+0.0
37	15-22	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Marie Laurio		+0.0
38	16-22	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.0
39	16-23	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
40	17-23	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
41	17-24	SYR	ILL	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
42	17-25	ILL	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Talita Goncalves	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
2	0-2	ILL	ILL×5	Attack err	Marie Laurio	blk Paityn Chapman, Lindsay Oldendorf	+0.1
3	0-3	ILL	ILL×5	Ace	ILL server	aced Kiernan Stamey	+0.0
4	0-4	ILL	ILL×5	Ace	ILL server	aced Aileen McAllister	+0.0
5	0-5	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+0.0
6	1-5	ILL	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.0
7	2-5	SYR	SYR	Attack err	Taylor de Boer	blk Marie Laurio, Abby Nicholson	+0.0
8	2-6	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
9	3-6	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
10	3-7	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
11	4-7	ILL	SYR	Kill	Abby Nicholson	set Charis Burge	+0.0
12	4-8	SYR	ILL	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey	blk Paityn Chapman, Ashlyn Philpot	+0.0
13	5-8	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.0
14	5-9	SYR	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
15	6-9	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.0
16	6-10	SYR	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
17	7-10	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Charis Burge	+0.0
18	7-11	SYR	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
19	8-11	ILL	SYR	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+0.0
20	8-12	SYR	ILL	Attack err	Marie Laurio	blk Taylor de Boer, Lindsay Oldendorf	+0.0
21	8-13	ILL	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
22	9-13	ILL	SYR	Kill	Marie Laurio	set Aileen McAllister	+0.0
23	9-14	SYR	ILL×6	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
24	9-15	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
25	9-16	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Abby Nicholson	blk Ashlyn Philpot, Alyssa Aguayo	+0.0
26	9-17	ILL	ILL×6	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
27	9-18	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
28	9-19	ILL	ILL×6	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+0.0
29	10-19	ILL	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Charis Burge	+0.0
30	11-19	SYR	SYR	Kill	Kiernan Stamey	set Yuka Urano	+0.0
31	11-20	SYR	ILL	Attack err	Kiernan Stamey		+0.0
32	12-20	ILL	SYR	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
33	12-21	SYR	ILL	Kill	Ashlyn Philpot	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
34	12-22	ILL	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
35	13-22	ILL	SYR	Kill	Keila Gabriel	set Charis Burge	+0.0
36	13-23	SYR	ILL	Serve err	SYR server		+0.0
37	13-24	ILL	ILL	Kill	Ava Wysocki	set Vivian Campbell	+0.0
38	14-24	ILL	SYR	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+0.0
39	14-25	SYR	ILL	Kill	Ava Wysocki	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Syracuse first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.