FinalTue, Sep 1, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

0:3

HomeSEC

Tennessee def. Illinois 3–0

(24-19, 25-17, 25-11)

Set	1*	2	3	Sets
ILL	19	17	11	0
TENN	24	25	25	3

* Set 1: the NCAA play-by-play stops before the final score, so the set winner comes from the official result. It is also left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

TENN above 50 · ILL below

Biggest swing: 1.8% to Illinois — set 1, ILL 12-13 TENN. Kill by Alyssa Aguayo (set by Kenna Phelan). TENN win probability 87% → 85%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ILL 16.4%83.6% TENN

Illinois wins

3-0

2.5%

3-1

5.3%

3-2

8.6%

Tennessee wins

3-0

35.4%

3-1

31.1%

3-2

17.1%

ILL break %: 37.4% vs this opp
TENN break %: 44.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Alyssa AguayoKill+1.8%
Kill by Alyssa Aguayo (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · ILL 12-13 TENN · ILL 13% → 15%
02
Alyssa AguayoAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Alyssa Aguayo
Set 1 · ILL 12-15 TENN · TENN 86% → 88%
03
Alyssa AguayoAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Alyssa Aguayo
Set 1 · ILL 2-3 TENN · TENN 83% → 85%
04
Jolene OddoAttack error+1.5%
Jolene Oddo stuffed by Taylor de Boer
Set 1 · ILL 14-16 TENN · ILL 11% → 13%
05
Kenna PhelanKill+1.5%
Kill by Kenna Phelan (set by Talita Goncalves)
Set 2 · ILL 6-4 TENN · ILL 10% → 12%
06
Jolene OddoAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Jolene Oddo
Set 1 · ILL 4-5 TENN · ILL 13% → 15%
07
Jolene OddoAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Jolene Oddo
Set 1 · ILL 11-13 TENN · ILL 12% → 13%
08
Paityn ChapmanAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Paityn Chapman
Set 1 · ILL 7-10 TENN · TENN 86% → 88%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Illinoisaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Paityn ChapmanOH	3	9	6	25	.120	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9
19Alyssa AguayoOH	3	8	4	24	.167	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	8
11Kristina StarostenkoMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
7Kenna PhelanS	3	1	1	2	.000	21	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
8Maya HarrisOH	3	1	2	9	-.111	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	1
14Lindsay OldendorfMB	2	0	1	3	-.333	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
5Taylor de BoerOH	3	3	4	19	-.053	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	4
17Vivian CampbellS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	2
18Talita GoncalvesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	12	0	0	0	0	0
2Taryn KirschL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16Ashlyn PhilpotMB	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Sophi RandallS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Madi MilesOH	1	3	0	5	.600	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3
Team totals		28	18	96	.104	27	2	6	28	2	1	2	2	47

Tennesseehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
0Kennedi RogersOH	3	14	3	31	.355	2	1	2	7	0	0	1	0.5	15.5
15Maggie DosticOH	3	11	0	16	.688	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	1	12
7Jalyn StoutS	3	10	2	17	.471	2	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	10
22Jolene OddoMB	3	5	3	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	6
11Caroline KerrS	3	4	1	6	.500	38	0	2	6	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
16Chelsea SuttonMB	3	4	1	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
13Raegan BurnsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	0	1
14Sydney JaynesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
17Anni TangMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
1Emma FrietchL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	10	90	.422	44	2	7	37	2	1	8	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 ILL · TENN 6

Set 1*

19-24

Longest run 3 ILLTENN 4

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 ILLTENN 6

Set 3

11-25

Longest run 1 ILLTENN 5

Bars above the line = Tennessee leads, below = Illinois leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Illinois

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%4/6	0%0/3
2	67%4/6	33%2/6
3	44%4/9	0%0/4
4	36%4/11	33%2/6
5	25%3/12	43%3/7
6	40%2/5	0%0/3
All	43%21/49	24%7/29

Tennessee

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%4/4	50%3/6
2	67%4/6	43%3/7
3	100%4/4	56%5/9
4	67%4/6	43%3/7
5	57%4/7	60%6/10
6	100%2/2	80%8/10
All	76%22/29	57%28/49

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

121 rallies

Rally log

#	ILL-TENN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	TENN	ILL	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+1.2
2	1-1	ILL	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+1.1
3	2-1	TENN	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.2
4	2-2	ILL	TENN×4	Serve err	ILL server		+1.1
5	2-3	TENN	TENN×4	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo		+1.6
6	2-4	TENN	TENN×4	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo	blk Caroline Kerr, Jolene Oddo	+1.4
7	2-5	TENN	TENN×4	Attack err	Paityn Chapman	blk Kennedi Rogers, Jolene Oddo	+1.2
8	3-5	TENN	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.9
9	4-5	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Jolene Oddo		+1.4
10	4-6	ILL	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+1.0
11	5-6	TENN	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.1
12	5-7	ILL	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+1.0
13	6-7	TENN	ILL	Serve err	TENN server		+1.1
14	6-8	ILL	TENN	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+1.1
15	7-8	TENN	ILL	Serve err	TENN server		+1.1
16	7-9	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.1
17	7-10	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+1.4
18	8-10	TENN	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Talita Goncalves	+1.0
19	8-11	ILL	TENN	Serve err	ILL server		+1.0
20	8-12	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+1.2
21	9-12	TENN	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
22	9-13	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.8
23	10-13	TENN	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
24	11-13	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Jolene Oddo		+1.4
25	12-13	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.8
26	12-14	ILL	TENN×3	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Raegan Burns	+1.4
27	12-15	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo		+1.7
28	12-16	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Maggie Dostic		+1.3
29	13-16	TENN	ILL	Serve err	TENN server		+0.8
30	14-16	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Jolene Oddo	blk Taylor de Boer	+1.5
31	14-17	ILL	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+1.2
32	14-18	TENN	TENN	Ace	TENN server	aced Team	+1.4
33	15-18	TENN	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Talita Goncalves	+0.8
34	15-19	ILL	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+1.0
35	15-20	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Kennedi Rogers	+0.9
36	16-20	TENN	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
37	16-21	ILL	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.6
38	17-21	TENN	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
39	17-22	ILL	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.5
40	18-22	TENN	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
41	18-23	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.5
42	19-23	TENN	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
43	19-24	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.5
Set 2
1	0-1	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.7
2	0-2	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+1.0
3	1-2	TENN	ILL	Serve err	TENN server		+0.7
4	2-2	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Chelsea Sutton		+1.1
5	2-3	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.8
6	3-3	TENN	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Lindsay Oldendorf	+0.8
7	3-4	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.8
8	4-4	TENN	ILL×3	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers		+0.9
9	5-4	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Kennedi Rogers	blk Kenna Phelan, Lindsay Oldendorf	+1.4
10	6-4	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Kenna Phelan	set Talita Goncalves	+1.5
11	6-5	ILL	TENN	Bad set	Alyssa Aguayo		+0.9
12	7-5	TENN	ILL	Serve err	TENN server		+1.1
13	7-6	ILL	TENN×3	Serve err	ILL server		+1.0
14	7-7	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Kennedi Rogers	+1.4
15	7-8	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+1.3
16	8-8	TENN	ILL	Serve err	TENN server		+1.0
17	8-9	ILL	TENN×3	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Maggie Dostic	+0.9
18	8-10	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+1.3
19	8-11	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+1.1
20	9-11	TENN	ILL	Serve err	TENN server		+0.7
21	9-12	ILL	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.8
22	10-12	TENN	ILL	Attack err	Jalyn Stout		+0.7
23	11-12	ILL	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.3
24	11-13	ILL	TENN	Attack err	Lindsay Oldendorf		+1.0
25	12-13	TENN	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
26	12-14	ILL	TENN	Serve err	ILL server		+1.0
27	13-14	TENN	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
28	13-15	ILL	TENN×5	Serve err	ILL server		+1.0
29	13-16	TENN	TENN×5	Attack err	Taylor de Boer	blk Caroline Kerr, Anni Tang	+1.3
30	13-17	TENN	TENN×5	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+1.0
31	13-18	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.7
32	13-19	TENN	TENN×5	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+0.4
33	14-19	TENN	ILL×4	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
34	15-19	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
35	16-19	ILL	ILL×4	Ace	ILL server	aced Raegan Burns	+0.8
36	17-19	ILL	ILL×4	Ace	ILL server	aced Team	+1.2
37	17-20	ILL	TENN×6	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+1.0
38	17-21	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
39	17-22	TENN	TENN×6	Attack err	Maya Harris		+0.6
40	17-23	TENN	TENN×6	Attack err	Maya Harris	blk Caroline Kerr, Chelsea Sutton	+0.3
41	17-24	TENN	TENN×6	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+0.1
42	17-25	TENN	TENN×6	Kill	Chelsea Sutton		+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	TENN	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.5
2	1-1	TENN	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
3	1-2	ILL	TENN×3	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
4	1-3	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.5
5	1-4	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+0.4
6	2-4	TENN	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
7	2-5	ILL	TENN	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
8	2-6	TENN	TENN	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.4
9	3-6	TENN	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
10	3-7	ILL	TENN×4	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.3
11	3-8	TENN	TENN×4	Attack err	Kenna Phelan		+0.3
12	3-9	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
13	3-10	TENN	TENN×4	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.2
14	4-10	TENN	ILL	Kill	Madi Miles	set Sophi Randall	+0.1
15	4-11	ILL	TENN×3	Kill	Maggie Dostic	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
16	4-12	TENN	TENN×3	Kill	Chelsea Sutton	set Caroline Kerr	+0.1
17	4-13	TENN	TENN×3	Attack err	Taylor de Boer	blk Maggie Dostic	+0.1
18	5-13	TENN	ILL	Kill	Madi Miles	set Sophi Randall	+0.0
19	5-14	ILL	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
20	5-15	TENN	TENN	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo		+0.0
21	6-15	TENN	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
22	6-16	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
23	7-16	TENN	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
24	7-17	ILL	TENN	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
25	8-17	TENN	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
26	8-18	ILL	TENN×5	Kill	Jolene Oddo	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
27	8-19	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Maggie Dostic		+0.0
28	8-20	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
29	8-21	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Jalyn Stout	+0.0
30	8-22	TENN	TENN×5	Kill	Caroline Kerr	set Jalyn Stout	+0.0
31	9-22	TENN	ILL	Attack err	Caroline Kerr		+0.0
32	9-23	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
33	10-23	TENN	ILL	Kill	Madi Miles	set Sophi Randall	+0.0
34	10-24	ILL	TENN	Kill	Kennedi Rogers	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0
35	11-24	TENN	ILL	Attack err	Jalyn Stout		+0.0
36	11-25	ILL	TENN	Kill	Jalyn Stout	set Caroline Kerr	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Illinois first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.