FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeAMERICAN

Illinois def. Rice 3–0

(25-18, 25-19, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ILL	25	25	25	3
RICE	18	19	14	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

RICE above 50 · ILL below

Biggest swing: 2.4% to Rice — set 1, ILL 2-4 RICE. Attack error by Paityn Chapman. RICE win probability 25% → 27%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

ILL 76.7%23.3% RICE

Illinois wins

3-0

28.5%

3-1

29.2%

3-2

19.0%

Rice wins

3-0

4.0%

3-1

7.9%

3-2

11.4%

ILL break %: 41.6% vs this opp
RICE break %: 36.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Paityn ChapmanAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Paityn Chapman
Set 1 · ILL 2-4 RICE · RICE 25% → 27%
02
Sydnee PetersonAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by Sydnee Peterson
Set 1 · ILL 4-4 RICE · ILL 74% → 76%
03
Stephanie GutierrezKill+2.2%
Kill by Stephanie Gutierrez (set by Kaia Mateo)
Set 1 · ILL 2-3 RICE · RICE 23% → 25%
04
Paityn ChapmanKill+2.2%
Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Talita Goncalves)
Set 1 · ILL 5-4 RICE · ILL 76% → 78%
05
Taylor de BoerKill+2.1%
Kill by Taylor de Boer (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · ILL 8-6 RICE · ILL 78% → 80%
06
Paityn ChapmanKill+2.0%
Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · ILL 2-1 RICE · ILL 77% → 79%
07
Ashlyn SeayAttack error+1.9%
Attack error by Ashlyn Seay
Set 1 · ILL 10-7 RICE · ILL 81% → 82%
08
Arissa SmithKill+1.7%
Kill by Arissa Smith (set by Mari Furoyama)
Set 2 · ILL 0-1 RICE · RICE 12% → 14%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Illinoisaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Paityn ChapmanOH	3	16	2	25	.560	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	16.5
11Kristina StarostenkoMB	3	10	0	14	.714	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	2	12
5Taylor de BoerOH	3	9	1	25	.320	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9
19Alyssa AguayoOH	3	8	1	19	.368	0	0	1	6	1	0	2	1	9
14Lindsay OldendorfMB	3	3	0	3	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
7Kenna PhelanS	3	1	0	2	.500	38	2	3	8	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
8Maya HarrisOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	0	2
18Talita GoncalvesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	13	1	0	0	0	0
2Taryn KirschL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Vivian CampbellS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	4	89	.494	43	3	9	38	3	1	8	5	75

Ricehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
5Sydnee PetersonOH	3	7	4	27	.111	0	0	1	5	1	1	0.5	7.5
21Arissa SmithMB	3	6	1	14	.357	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
13Stephanie GutierrezMB	3	4	0	8	.500	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Kellen DorotikOPP	3	4	1	16	.188	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	4.5
3Kaia MateoS	3	2	0	2	1.000	17	0	1	5	0	0	0	2
16Mari FuroyamaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0
12Ashlyn SeayOH	3	6	3	17	.176	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6
10Declan EastmanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
9Jordan HummelL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
22Amalia SimmonsMB	2	4	2	8	.250	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
14Savannah SkopalS	2	1	0	1	1.000	11	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
2Bella LopezOH	2	1	3	6	-.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
6Campbell LoveL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
11Ellie SchneiderMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	15	101	.198	32	3	8	34	3	4	2	51

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 ILL · RICE 3

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 ILLRICE 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 6 ILLRICE 3

Set 3

25-14

Longest run 5 ILLRICE 2

Bars above the line = Rice leads, below = Illinois leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Illinois

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	59%10/17
2	64%7/11	53%8/15
3	100%7/7	36%4/11
4	100%6/6	33%3/9
5	55%6/11	40%4/10
6	100%6/6	50%6/12
All	77%40/52	47%35/74

Rice

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	35%7/20	22%2/9
2	64%7/11	22%2/9
3	70%7/10	30%3/10
4	50%6/12	0%0/7
5	75%6/8	40%4/10
6	46%6/13	14%1/7
All	53%39/74	23%12/52

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	ILL-RICE	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ILL	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Jordan Hummel	+1.4
2	1-1	RICE	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+1.3
3	2-1	ILL	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+2.0
4	2-2	ILL	RICE×3	Serve err	ILL server		+1.3
5	2-3	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Kaia Mateo	+2.2
6	2-4	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+2.4
7	3-4	RICE	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.4
8	4-4	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson		+2.2
9	5-4	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+2.2
10	5-5	ILL	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+1.4
11	6-5	RICE	ILL	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+1.4
12	6-6	ILL	RICE	Kill	Kaia Mateo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.5
13	7-6	RICE	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.4
14	8-6	ILL	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+2.1
15	8-7	ILL	RICE	Kill	Kaia Mateo	set Paityn Chapman	+1.3
16	9-7	RICE	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+1.3
17	10-7	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay		+1.9
18	10-8	ILL	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Jordan Hummel	+1.1
19	11-8	RICE	ILL	Kill	Kenna Phelan		+1.2
20	11-9	ILL	RICE	Serve err	ILL server		+1.2
21	12-9	RICE	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+1.3
22	13-9	ILL	ILL	Ace	ILL server	aced Team	+1.7
23	13-10	ILL	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.9
24	14-10	RICE	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
25	14-11	ILL	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Kaia Mateo	+0.9
26	15-11	RICE	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.1
27	15-12	ILL	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.9
28	16-12	RICE	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.1
29	16-13	ILL	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.9
30	17-13	RICE	ILL×4	Serve err	RICE server		+1.1
31	18-13	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Kristina Starostenko		+1.2
32	19-13	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
33	20-13	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
34	20-14	ILL	RICE	Kill	Bella Lopez	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
35	21-14	RICE	ILL	Serve err	RICE server		+0.2
36	22-14	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Bella Lopez		+0.1
37	22-15	ILL	RICE	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
38	22-16	RICE	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Declan Eastman	+0.1
39	23-16	RICE	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kristina Starostenko	+0.1
40	23-17	ILL	RICE	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
41	24-17	RICE	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
42	24-18	ILL	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
43	25-18	RICE	ILL	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson		+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	RICE	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Mari Furoyama	+1.7
2	1-1	RICE	ILL×6	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
3	2-1	ILL	ILL×6	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.6
4	3-1	ILL	ILL×6	Bad set	Jordan Hummel		+1.4
5	4-1	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Kellen Dorotik	blk Alyssa Aguayo, Kristina Starostenko	+1.3
6	5-1	ILL	ILL×6	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+1.1
7	6-1	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson	blk Alyssa Aguayo, Kristina Starostenko	+0.9
8	6-2	ILL	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+0.5
9	6-3	RICE	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+1.0
10	7-3	RICE	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.7
11	7-4	ILL	RICE	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo	blk Stephanie Gutierrez, Kellen Dorotik	+0.7
12	8-4	RICE	ILL	Serve err	RICE server		+0.7
13	8-5	ILL	RICE	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Savannah Skopal	+0.7
14	9-5	RICE	ILL	Serve err	RICE server		+0.7
15	10-5	ILL	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
16	10-6	ILL	RICE×3	Kill	Stephanie Gutierrez	set Savannah Skopal	+0.5
17	10-7	RICE	RICE×3	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+1.1
18	10-8	RICE	RICE×3	Ace	RICE server	aced Taylor de Boer	+1.4
19	11-8	RICE	ILL	Kill	Lindsay Oldendorf	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
20	12-8	ILL	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+1.3
21	12-9	ILL	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Savannah Skopal	+0.7
22	13-9	RICE	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Talita Goncalves	+0.8
23	13-10	ILL	RICE	Kill	Sydnee Peterson	set Kaia Mateo	+0.7
24	13-11	RICE	RICE	Attack err	Taylor de Boer	blk Sydnee Peterson, Arissa Smith	+1.4
25	14-11	RICE	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
26	14-12	ILL	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Kaia Mateo	+1.0
27	15-12	RICE	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+1.1
28	16-12	ILL	ILL	Kill	Lindsay Oldendorf		+1.4
29	16-13	ILL	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+0.7
30	17-13	RICE	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.9
31	17-14	ILL	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Savannah Skopal	+0.7
32	18-14	RICE	ILL×3	Attack err	Bella Lopez		+0.9
33	19-14	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Amalia Simmons		+1.0
34	20-14	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.6
35	20-15	ILL	RICE×3	Kill	Savannah Skopal	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
36	20-16	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Savannah Skopal	+0.5
37	20-17	RICE	RICE×3	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Savannah Skopal	+0.9
38	21-17	RICE	ILL	Kill	Lindsay Oldendorf	set Kenna Phelan	+0.9
39	21-18	ILL	RICE	Serve err	ILL server		+0.6
40	22-18	RICE	ILL×3	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.9
41	23-18	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+0.7
42	24-18	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Bella Lopez	blk Kristina Starostenko, Paityn Chapman	+0.2
43	24-19	ILL	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Kaia Mateo	+0.0
44	25-19	RICE	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	ILL	ILL	Ace	ILL server	aced Sydnee Peterson	+0.8
2	2-0	ILL	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko		+0.7
3	2-1	ILL	RICE	Serve err	ILL server		+0.5
4	3-1	RICE	ILL	Serve err	RICE server		+0.5
5	3-2	ILL	RICE	Kill	Arissa Smith	set Savannah Skopal	+0.5
6	3-3	RICE	RICE	Ace	RICE server	aced Talita Goncalves	+0.8
7	4-3	RICE	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
8	5-3	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Sydnee Peterson		+0.8
9	5-4	ILL	RICE	Serve err	ILL server		+0.5
10	6-4	RICE	ILL×4	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
11	7-4	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Arissa Smith		+0.7
12	8-4	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Ashlyn Seay	blk Lindsay Oldendorf	+0.6
13	9-4	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Maya Harris	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
14	9-5	ILL	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Savannah Skopal	+0.3
15	10-5	RICE	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
16	10-6	ILL	RICE	Serve err	ILL server		+0.3
17	11-6	RICE	ILL	Serve err	RICE server		+0.3
18	11-7	ILL	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Savannah Skopal	+0.3
19	12-7	RICE	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
20	13-7	ILL	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
21	13-8	ILL	RICE	Kill	Kellen Dorotik	set Savannah Skopal	+0.2
22	14-8	RICE	ILL	Serve err	RICE server		+0.2
23	15-8	ILL	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
24	15-9	ILL	RICE	Serve err	ILL server		+0.1
25	16-9	RICE	ILL	Attack err	Amalia Simmons		+0.1
26	16-10	ILL	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
27	17-10	RICE	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
28	17-11	ILL	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
29	18-11	RICE	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
30	18-12	ILL	RICE	Kill	Amalia Simmons	set Kaia Mateo	+0.1
31	18-13	RICE	RICE	Ace	RICE server	aced Alyssa Aguayo	+0.2
32	19-13	RICE	ILL	Serve err	RICE server		+0.2
33	20-13	ILL	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
34	20-14	ILL	RICE	Kill	Ashlyn Seay	set Savannah Skopal	+0.1
35	21-14	RICE	ILL×5	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
36	22-14	ILL	ILL×5	Ace	ILL server	aced Mari Furoyama	+0.1
37	23-14	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
38	24-14	ILL	ILL×5	Attack err	Ellie Schneider		+0.0
39	25-14	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Illinois first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.