FinalWed, Sep 9, 2026

AwayOVC

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Illinois def. Lindenwood 3–0

(25-12, 25-12, 25-14)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LINWOD	12	12	14	0
ILL	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

ILL above 50 · LINWOD below

Biggest swing: 0.9% to Illinois — set 1, LINWOD 3-5 ILL. Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Kenna Phelan). ILL win probability 92% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LINWOD 8.7%91.3% ILL

Lindenwood wins

3-0

1.1%

3-1

2.6%

3-2

5.0%

Illinois wins

3-0

46.7%

3-1

31.4%

3-2

13.1%

LINWOD break %: 36.5% vs this opp
ILL break %: 46.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Paityn ChapmanKill+0.9%
Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · LINWOD 3-5 ILL · ILL 92% → 93%
02
ILL serverService error+0.8%
Illinois service error
Set 1 · LINWOD 3-3 ILL · LINWOD 8% → 9%
03
Taylor de BoerKill+0.8%
Kill by Taylor de Boer (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · LINWOD 3-6 ILL · ILL 93% → 93%
04
Susanna BerettiKill+0.7%
Kill by Susanna Beretti (set by Kaci Johnson)
Set 1 · LINWOD 2-2 ILL · LINWOD 8% → 9%
05
Autumn BaxKill+0.7%
Kill by Autumn Bax (set by Kaci Johnson)
Set 1 · LINWOD 1-1 ILL · LINWOD 8% → 9%
06
Alyssa AguayoKill+0.7%
Kill by Alyssa Aguayo (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · LINWOD 3-4 ILL · ILL 91% → 92%
07
Lindsay OldendorfKill+0.7%
Kill by Lindsay Oldendorf (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · LINWOD 2-3 ILL · ILL 91% → 92%
08
Autumn BaxAttack error+0.7%
Autumn Bax stuffed by Kristina Starostenko & Paityn Chapman
Set 1 · LINWOD 5-9 ILL · ILL 93% → 94%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Lindenwoodaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BLK	PTS
13Susanna BerettiOH	3	8	4	24	.167	0	2	3	1	1	1	9
15Autumn BaxOH	3	5	6	16	-.063	0	0	1	0	0	0	5
17Ashley GeluckMB	3	3	4	10	-.100	0	0	2	0	0	0	3
28Kylee RicheyOH	3	1	2	9	-.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Kaci JohnsonS	3	0	1	2	-.500	19	0	5	0	0	0	0
27Mandy LawsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	3	2	0	0	0
7Lauren OrtwerthOH	3	8	3	21	.238	0	0	1	0	0	0	8
1Alayna RudebeckDS	3	0	0	3	.000	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
9Dana GribDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	6	2	0	0	0
10Greta ShadewaldS	2	0	0	0	–	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
5Anna KraemerOPP	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Jade RothMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	21	88	.045	24	4	25	5	1	1	38

Illinoishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Paityn ChapmanOH	3	11	3	26	.308	0	1	2	6	0	6	3	15
11Kristina StarostenkoMB	3	8	1	9	.778	0	0	0	1	1	6	4	12
5Taylor de BoerOH	3	8	1	19	.368	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	10
19Alyssa AguayoOH	3	7	1	16	.375	2	1	1	4	1	0	1	9
7Kenna PhelanS	3	4	0	5	.800	26	2	0	5	0	1	0.5	6.5
14Lindsay OldendorfMB	3	3	2	7	.143	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
8Maya HarrisOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	0	6	0	0	0	2
18Talita GoncalvesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	0	0	13	0	0	0	0
17Vivian CampbellS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
16Ashlyn PhilpotMB	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2Taryn KirschL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Madi MilesOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Devin DziennyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	8	84	.417	34	5	5	36	4	14	11	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 LINWOD · ILL 7

Set 1

12-25

Longest run 2 LINWODILL 5

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 3 LINWODILL 6

Set 3

14-25

Longest run 3 LINWODILL 7

Bars above the line = Illinois leads, below = Lindenwood leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Lindenwood

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	40%6/15	38%3/8
2	67%6/9	33%3/9
3	33%5/15	25%2/8
4	31%4/13	38%3/8
5	33%3/9	0%0/4
6	25%3/12	0%0/3
All	37%27/73	28%11/40

Illinois

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	78%14/18
2	67%6/9	50%6/12
3	56%5/9	58%7/12
4	83%5/6	55%6/11
5	100%4/4	69%9/13
6	60%3/5	57%4/7
All	73%29/40	63%46/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

113 rallies

Rally log

#	LINWOD-ILL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.6
2	1-1	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.7
3	1-2	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.7
4	2-2	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+0.7
5	2-3	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Lindsay Oldendorf	set Kenna Phelan	+0.7
6	3-3	ILL	LINWOD	Serve err	ILL server		+0.8
7	3-4	LINWOD	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.7
8	3-5	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.9
9	3-6	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
10	4-6	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.5
11	4-7	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
12	5-7	ILL	LINWOD	Serve err	ILL server		+0.6
13	5-8	LINWOD	ILL×4	Kill	Kenna Phelan		+0.6
14	5-9	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Autumn Bax	blk Kristina Starostenko, Paityn Chapman	+0.7
15	5-10	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Autumn Bax	blk Kristina Starostenko, Paityn Chapman	+0.5
16	5-11	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Talita Goncalves	+0.4
17	6-11	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
18	7-11	LINWOD	LINWOD	Attack err	Alyssa Aguayo		+0.5
19	7-12	LINWOD	ILL×4	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
20	7-13	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Kristina Starostenko		+0.4
21	7-14	ILL	ILL×4	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kaci Johnson	+0.3
22	7-15	ILL	ILL×4	Attack err	Autumn Bax		+0.2
23	8-15	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+0.1
24	8-16	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
25	8-17	ILL	ILL	Kill	Lindsay Oldendorf		+0.1
26	9-17	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Kylee Richey	set Kaci Johnson	+0.0
27	9-18	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+0.1
28	10-18	ILL	LINWOD	Attack err	Lindsay Oldendorf		+0.0
29	11-18	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Greta Shadewald	+0.1
30	11-19	LINWOD	ILL	Serve err	LINWOD server		+0.1
31	11-20	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Jade Roth		+0.1
32	12-20	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Greta Shadewald	+0.0
33	12-21	LINWOD	ILL×5	Serve err	LINWOD server		+0.0
34	12-22	ILL	ILL×5	Attack err	Lauren Ortwerth	blk Taylor de Boer	+0.0
35	12-23	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Kenna Phelan	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
36	12-24	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Kenna Phelan	set Greta Shadewald	+0.0
37	12-25	ILL	ILL×5	Attack err	Ashley Geluck		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
2	1-1	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
3	2-1	ILL	LINWOD	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+0.6
4	2-2	LINWOD	ILL×6	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
5	2-3	ILL	ILL×6	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.7
6	2-4	ILL	ILL×6	Bad set	Kaci Johnson		+0.6
7	2-5	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Kylee Richey	blk Alyssa Aguayo	+0.5
8	2-6	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Susanna Beretti		+0.4
9	2-7	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Susanna Beretti		+0.3
10	3-7	ILL	LINWOD×3	Attack err	Lindsay Oldendorf		+0.2
11	4-7	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kylee Richey	+0.4
12	5-7	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+0.5
13	5-8	LINWOD	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+0.4
14	5-9	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Talita Goncalves	+0.4
15	5-10	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Kaci Johnson		+0.3
16	6-10	ILL	LINWOD	Serve err	ILL server		+0.2
17	6-11	LINWOD	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
18	6-12	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Alyssa Aguayo	+0.3
19	6-13	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Lindsay Oldendorf		+0.2
20	7-13	ILL	LINWOD	Serve err	ILL server		+0.1
21	7-14	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
22	8-14	ILL	LINWOD×3	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.1
23	9-14	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
24	10-14	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Attack err	Taylor de Boer		+0.3
25	10-15	LINWOD	ILL×6	Serve err	LINWOD server		+0.3
26	10-16	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Autumn Bax		+0.3
27	10-17	ILL	ILL×6	Ace	ILL server	aced Dana Grib	+0.2
28	10-18	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Autumn Bax		+0.1
29	10-19	ILL	ILL×6	Attack err	Susanna Beretti	blk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko	+0.0
30	10-20	ILL	ILL×6	Ace	ILL server	aced Mandy Lawson	+0.0
31	11-20	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.0
32	11-21	LINWOD	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
33	11-22	ILL	ILL×3	Ace	ILL server	aced Mandy Lawson	+0.0
34	11-23	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
35	12-23	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.0
36	12-24	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
37	12-25	ILL	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
2	0-2	ILL	ILL	Kill	Maya Harris	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
3	1-2	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
4	2-2	LINWOD	LINWOD	Attack err	Paityn Chapman	blk Susanna Beretti	+0.3
5	2-3	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.2
6	3-3	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
7	4-3	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+0.4
8	4-4	LINWOD	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.3
9	4-5	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Kenna Phelan	set Dana Grib	+0.3
10	4-6	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Susanna Beretti	blk Kenna Phelan, Lindsay Oldendorf	+0.3
11	5-6	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
12	5-7	LINWOD	ILL×3	Serve err	LINWOD server		+0.2
13	5-8	ILL	ILL×3	Ace	ILL server	aced Susanna Beretti	+0.3
14	5-9	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Lindsay Oldendorf	+0.2
15	6-9	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.1
16	6-10	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.1
17	7-10	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.1
18	7-11	LINWOD	ILL×7	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
19	7-12	ILL	ILL×7	Attack err	Ashley Geluck	blk Kristina Starostenko	+0.2
20	7-13	ILL	ILL×7	Attack err	Autumn Bax	blk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko	+0.1
21	7-14	ILL	ILL×7	Attack err	Lauren Ortwerth	blk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko	+0.1
22	7-15	ILL	ILL×7	Attack err	Ashley Geluck	blk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko	+0.1
23	7-16	ILL	ILL×7	Attack err	Ashley Geluck	blk Taylor de Boer	+0.0
24	7-17	ILL	ILL×7	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+0.0
25	8-17	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.0
26	8-18	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Alyssa Aguayo	+0.0
27	9-18	ILL	LINWOD×3	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.0
28	10-18	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Attack err	Kristina Starostenko		+0.0
29	11-18	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+0.0
30	11-19	LINWOD	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
31	12-19	ILL	LINWOD	Serve err	ILL server		+0.0
32	13-19	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Mandy Lawson	+0.0
33	13-20	LINWOD	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
34	13-21	ILL	ILL×3	Bad set	Greta Shadewald		+0.0
35	13-22	ILL	ILL×3	Ace	ILL server	aced Dana Grib	+0.0
36	14-22	ILL	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Greta Shadewald	+0.0
37	14-23	LINWOD	ILL×3	Attack err	Kylee Richey		+0.0
38	14-24	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Madi Miles	set Kenna Phelan	+0.0
39	14-25	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Lauren Ortwerth		+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Lindenwood first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.