FinalSun, Sep 20, 2026

Illinois def. Arkansas St. 3–0

Illinois won at Arkansas St. 3-0 (25-15, 25-22, 25-23) on Sun, Sep 20, 2026. Illinois' Paityn Chapman led with 13 kills, and Talita Goncalves added 18 digs.

Data through · final Sep 20

Set123Sets
ILL2525253
ARK ST1522230

Win probability

Arkansas St. above 50 · Illinois below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+3.8% ILLrally 135 · set 3

Biggest swing: 3.8% to Illinois — set 2, ILL 21-20 ARK ST. Kill by Taylor de Boer (set by Kristina Starostenko). ARK ST win probability 16% → 12%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ILL 74.9%25.1% ARK ST

Illinois wins

3-0
26.9%
3-1
28.6%
3-2
19.3%

Arkansas St. wins

3-0
4.4%
3-1
8.6%
3-2
12.1%
ILL break %
44.0% vs this opp
ARK ST break %
38.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Taylor de Boer (set by Kristina Starostenko)

    Set 2 · ILL 21-20 ARK ST · ILL 84% → 88%

  2. 02
    Calea BushAttack error+3.6%

    Attack error by Calea Bush

    Set 2 · ILL 20-20 ARK ST · ILL 80% → 84%

  3. 03
    Taylor de BoerBlock+3.5%

    Addison Collum stuffed by Taylor de Boer

    Set 2 · ILL 22-20 ARK ST · ILL 88% → 91%

  4. 04

    Kill by Taylor de Boer (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 2 · ILL 18-19 ARK ST · ILL 78% → 81%

  5. 05
    Arkansas St.Ace+2.7%

    Arkansas St. ace on Maya Harris

    Set 2 · ILL 13-16 ARK ST · ARK ST 20% → 22%

  6. 06

    Kill by Kaitlin Whitlock (set by Erin Madigan)

    Set 2 · ILL 18-20 ARK ST · ARK ST 19% → 22%

  7. 07
    IllinoisAce+2.5%

    Illinois ace on Kaitlin Whitlock

    Set 2 · ILL 23-20 ARK ST · ILL 91% → 94%

  8. 08
    Alyssa AguayoKill+2.5%

    Kill by Alyssa Aguayo (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 3 · ILL 24-22 ARK ST · ILL 96% → 99%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
313334.29403112002117
39430.16700171111.510.5
37013.53810020031.58.5
3429.222000100215
3125-.20037101000002
3000–023810002
311427.2590000012213
3000–5001810000
3000–000000000
3000–000200000
Team totals4515118.2544365603210775
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
310532.15610071010.510.5
310235.2290009100010
36416.125000101439
34313.07701110212.57.5
32320-.050010600425
3003.0001501400000
35211.273000300005
3001.000000530000
3000–1600200000
3000–2011310000
2000–010100001
Team totals3719131.1373433526310860

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 ILL · ARK ST 4

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 6 ILLARK ST 2

Set 2

25-22

Longest run 5 ILLARK ST 4

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 3 ILLARK ST 4

Bars above the line = Arkansas St. leads, below = Illinois leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Illinois

SlotSideout %Break %
1
89%8/9
65%11/17
2
67%8/12
33%4/12
3
55%6/11
60%9/15
4
55%6/11
33%3/9
5
46%6/13
25%2/8
6
100%6/6
50%6/12
All
65%40/62
48%35/73

Arkansas St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
47%8/17
13%1/8
2
50%7/14
20%2/10
3
60%6/10
50%7/14
4
67%6/9
25%2/8
5
67%6/9
54%7/13
6
36%5/14
33%3/9
All
52%38/73
35%22/62

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

135 rallies

#ILL-ARK STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1ARK STARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Mia Maloney+2.1
21-1ARK STILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.4
31-2ILLARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Paityn Chapman+1.6
42-2ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.5
53-2ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.0
63-3ILLARK STServe errIllinois+1.5
74-3ARK STILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.5
85-3ILLILLAttack errHaley Glunz+2.0
95-4ILLARK STKillHaley Glunzset Erin Madigan+1.4
106-4ARK STILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.4
117-4ILLILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.8
127-5ILLARK STAttack errTaylor de Boer+1.2
138-5ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.3
148-6ILLARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Maya Joska+1.3
159-6ARK STILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.3
1610-6ILLILLAceIllinoisaced Keira Garinger+1.6
1710-7ILLARK STServe errIllinois+1.1
1811-7ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.2
1912-7ILLILLAttack errCalea Bush+1.4
2012-8ILLARK STBlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Calea Bush, Addison Collum+0.8
2113-8ARK STILL×6Attack errCalea Bush+1.0
2214-8ILLILL×6Attack errAddison Collum+1.0
2315-8ILLILL×6AceIllinoisaced Devyn Lewis+0.7
2416-8ILLILL×6AceIllinoisaced Mia Maloney+0.5
2517-8ILLILL×6KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+0.3
2618-8ILLILL×6KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+0.1
2718-9ILLARK STKillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+0.1
2818-10ARK STARK STBlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Addison Collum, Haley Glunz+0.1
2919-10ARK STILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Talita Goncalves+0.1
3020-10ILLILLAttack errDevyn Lewis+0.1
3120-11ILLARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan·
3220-12ARK STARK STAttack errTaylor de Boer+0.1
3321-12ARK STILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+0.1
3421-13ILLARK STKillAdison Ozunaset Maya Joska·
3521-14ARK STARK STKillHaley Glunzset Maya Joska+0.1
3622-14ARK STILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+0.1
3722-15ILLARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Maya Joska·
3823-15ARK STILL×3KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+0.1
3924-15ILLILL×3Attack errKaitlin Whitlock·
4025-15ILLILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan·
Set 2
11-0ILLILLBad setErin Madigan+1.5
21-1ILLARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+1.1
32-1ARK STILLServe errArkansas St.+1.1
42-2ILLARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.2
52-3ARK STARK STAttack errAlyssa Aguayo+1.8
63-3ARK STILL×3Attack errHaley Glunz+1.2
74-3ILLILL×3Attack errDevyn Lewis+1.7
85-3ILLILL×3BlockedAdison Ozunablk Paityn Chapman, Ashlyn Philpot+1.5
95-4ILLARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Maya Joska+1.1
106-4ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.1
117-4ILLILLAceIllinoisaced Keira Garinger+1.4
127-5ILLARK ST×4KillAdison Ozunaset Maya Joska+1.0
137-6ARK STARK ST×4BlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Calea Bush+1.6
147-7ARK STARK ST×4KillCalea Bush+1.8
157-8ARK STARK ST×4AceArkansas St.aced Talita Goncalves+2.0
168-8ARK STILLAttack errPaityn Chapman+1.4
178-9ILLARK ST×4KillCalea Bushset Maya Joska+1.5
188-10ARK STARK ST×4KillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+2.2
198-11ARK STARK ST×4BlockedAshlyn Philpotblk Calea Bush, Kaitlin Whitlock+2.2
208-12ARK STARK ST×4BlockedTaylor de Boerblk Addison Collum, Calea Bush+2.2
219-12ARK STILL×3Serve errArkansas St.+1.2
2210-12ILLILL×3KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+2.0
2311-12ILLILL×3BlockedAddison Collumblk Taylor de Boer, Kristina Starostenko+2.2
2411-13ILLARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Mia Maloney+1.8
2512-13ARK STILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.6
2612-14ILLARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.9
2713-14ARK STILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.6
2813-15ILLARK STServe errIllinois+1.9
2913-16ARK STARK STAceArkansas St.aced Maya Harris+2.7
3014-16ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.5
3114-17ILLARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Maya Joska+2.0
3215-17ARK STILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.6
3315-18ILLARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Maya Joska+2.1
3416-18ARK STILLServe errArkansas St.+1.6
3516-19ILLARK STServe errIllinois+2.2
3617-19ARK STILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.6
3718-19ILLILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+2.9
3818-20ILLARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+2.6
3919-20ARK STILL×5KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+2.1
4020-20ILLILL×5Attack errCalea Bush+3.6
4121-20ILLILL×5KillTaylor de Boerset Kristina Starostenko+3.8
4222-20ILLILL×5BlockedAddison Collumblk Taylor de Boer+3.5
4323-20ILLILL×5AceIllinoisaced Kaitlin Whitlock+2.5
4423-21ILLARK STKillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+1.0
4524-21ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+1.7
4624-22ILLARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+0.7
4725-22ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.6
Set 3
11-0ARK STILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Talita Goncalves+0.6
22-0ILLILLBlockedCalea Bushblk Ashlyn Philpot, Alyssa Aguayo+0.8
32-1ILLARK STAttack errPaityn Chapman+0.6
43-1ARK STILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+0.6
53-2ILLARK ST×4KillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+0.6
63-3ARK STARK ST×4Attack errAshlyn Philpot+0.9
73-4ARK STARK ST×4KillDevyn Lewisset Erin Madigan+1.0
83-5ARK STARK ST×4KillHaley Glunzset Erin Madigan+1.1
94-5ARK STILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+0.7
104-6ILLARK STKillAdison Ozunaset Maya Joska+0.8
114-7ARK STARK STBlockedKenna Phelanblk Haley Glunz+1.1
125-7ARK STILLKillKenna Phelanset Talita Goncalves+0.7
136-7ILLILLAttack errKaitlin Whitlock+1.0
146-8ILLARK STKillAdison Ozunaset Maya Joska+0.8
157-8ARK STILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+0.7
168-8ILLILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.1
178-9ILLARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Maya Joska+0.8
189-9ARK STILLBlockedKaitlin Whitlockblk Kristina Starostenko, Taylor de Boer+0.8
1910-9ILLILLAttack errKaitlin Whitlock+1.1
2010-10ILLARK STKillKaitlin Whitlockset Erin Madigan+0.8
2111-10ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+0.8
2212-10ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.1
2312-11ILLARK ST×3KillCalea Bushset Erin Madigan+0.7
2412-12ARK STARK ST×3Attack errPaityn Chapman+1.2
2512-13ARK STARK ST×3KillAddison Collumset Erin Madigan+1.3
2613-13ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+0.9
2714-13ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.3
2814-14ILLARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Kaitlin Whitlock+0.9
2914-15ARK STARK STBlockedKenna Phelanblk Haley Glunz+1.5
3015-15ARK STILLBlockedHaley Glunzblk Alyssa Aguayo+1.0
3115-16ILLARK STKillDevyn Lewisset Maya Joska+1.1
3216-16ARK STILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+1.0
3316-17ILLARK ST×4KillHaley Glunzset Maya Joska+1.2
3416-18ARK STARK ST×4AceArkansas St.aced Alyssa Aguayo+1.7
3516-19ARK STARK ST×4Attack errTaylor de Boer+1.7
3616-20ARK STARK ST×4KillKaitlin Whitlockset Maya Joska+1.4
3717-20ARK STILL×3KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+0.7
3818-20ILLILL×3Attack errAdison Ozuna+1.3
3919-20ILLILL×3BlockedKaitlin Whitlockblk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko+1.7
4019-21ILLARK STKillAdison Ozunaset Maya Joska+1.6
4120-21ARK STILL×3KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.2
4221-21ILLILL×3KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+2.2
4322-21ILLILL×3AceIllinoisaced Keira Garinger+2.4
4422-22ILLARK STServe errIllinois+1.7
4523-22ARK STILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.0
4624-22ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.5
4724-23ILLARK STBlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Addison Collum, Calea Bush+1.0
4825-23ARK STILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.2

Score shown after each rally, Illinois first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).