Southern California vs Illinois: Illinois Wins 3-0 (Sep 26)

FinalSat, Sep 26, 2026B1G+

0:3

Illinois beat visiting Southern California 3-0 (25-21, 25-23, 25-21) on Sat, Sep 26, 2026. Illinois' Alyssa Aguayo led with 18 kills, and Paityn Chapman added 15 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 1:45 PM CT · final Sep 26

Set	1	2	3	Sets
USC	21	23	21	0
ILL	25	25	25	3

Win probability

Illinois above 50 · Southern California below

Biggest swing: 3.1% to Illinois — set 2, USC 23-25 ILL. Kill by Ashlyn Philpot (set by Kenna Phelan). ILL win probability 93% → 96%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

USC 20.0%80.0% ILL

Southern California wins

3-0

3.3%

3-1

6.6%

3-2

10.1%

Illinois wins

3-0

31.6%

3-1

30.2%

3-2

18.3%

USC break %: 36.7% vs this opp
ILL break %: 43.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Ashlyn PhilpotKill+3.1%
Kill by Ashlyn Philpot (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 2 · USC 23-25 ILL · ILL 93% → 96%
02
Paityn ChapmanKill+2.4%
Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · USC 11-12 ILL · ILL 79% → 81%
03
London WijayKill+2.3%
Kill by London Wijay (set by Milly McGee)
Set 1 · USC 8-7 ILL · USC 20% → 22%
04
Mia Tvrdy&London WijayBlock+2.3%
Paityn Chapman stuffed by Mia Tvrdy & London Wijay
Set 1 · USC 14-15 ILL · USC 16% → 18%
05
London WijayAttack error+2.2%
Attack error by London Wijay
Set 1 · USC 11-13 ILL · ILL 81% → 83%
06
Ashlyn PhilpotKill+2.2%
Kill by Ashlyn Philpot (set by Kenna Phelan)
Set 1 · USC 15-18 ILL · ILL 84% → 86%
07
Mia TvrdyKill+2.0%
Kill by Mia Tvrdy (set by Milly McGee)
Set 1 · USC 6-6 ILL · USC 18% → 20%
08
Paityn ChapmanBad set+2.0%
Bad set by Paityn Chapman
Set 2 · USC 23-24 ILL · USC 5% → 7%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Southern Californiaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2London WijayOH	3	12	3	31	.290	0	0	4	8	0	2	1	13
8Mia TvrdyMB	3	9	3	15	.400	0	0	1	1	0	4	2	11
5Abigail MullenOPP	3	6	4	31	.065	0	1	1	8	1	0	0	7
7Leah FordMB	3	6	0	14	.429	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	7
18Riley MalloyOH	3	5	4	20	.050	0	0	3	2	1	2	1	6
16Lilli EtterS	3	0	0	0	–	7	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
24Milly McGeeS	3	1	0	3	.333	27	0	0	3	0	3	1.5	2.5
3Layli OstovarOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	1
6Taylor DeckertL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	3	0	0	13	0	0	0	0
17Paisley DouglasL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	0
40Addison TownsendL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
1Adonia FaumuinaOH	1	2	0	7	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		42	14	125	.224	38	1	13	46	4	13	6.5	65

Illinoishome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Alyssa AguayoOH	3	18	1	34	.500	0	1	2	8	0	2	1	20
4Paityn ChapmanOH	3	5	2	20	.150	0	1	2	15	0	4	2	8
16Ashlyn PhilpotMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	8
11Kristina StarostenkoMB	3	7	2	12	.417	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
5Taylor de BoerOH	3	5	3	26	.077	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5
7Kenna PhelanS	3	2	0	4	.500	36	1	0	9	0	0	0	3
18Talita GoncalvesL/DS	3	0	0	4	.000	3	1	1	13	0	0	0	1
8Maya HarrisOH	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	5	7	0	0	0	1
13Kenzie CoganL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Vivian CampbellS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	10	113	.301	39	4	11	54	1	12	6	75

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 3 USC · ILL 5

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 3 USCILL 5

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 USCILL 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 3 USCILL 5

Bars above the line = Illinois leads, below = Southern California leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Southern California

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	22%2/9
2	82%9/11	10%1/10
3	53%9/17	25%3/12
4	57%8/14	36%5/14
5	55%6/11	38%5/13
6	75%6/8	25%2/8
All	64%47/74	27%18/66

Illinois

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	33%4/12
2	75%9/12	25%3/12
3	75%9/12	44%7/16
4	67%8/12	47%7/15
5	64%7/11	46%6/13
6	75%6/8	0%0/6
All	73%48/66	36%27/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

140 rallies

#	USC-ILL	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	ILL	ILL	Ace	Illinois	aced Riley Malloy	+1.7
2	1-1	ILL	USC	Blocked	Taylor de Boer	blk Leah Ford, Riley Malloy	+1.2
3	1-2	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+1.1
4	2-2	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+1.2
5	2-3	USC	ILL×3	Attack err	London Wijay		+1.2
6	2-4	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Ashlyn Philpot		+1.7
7	2-5	ILL	ILL×3	Ace	Illinois	aced Abigail Mullen	+1.5
8	3-5	ILL	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+1.0
9	4-5	USC	USC	Ace	Abigail Mullen		+1.7
10	4-6	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.1
11	5-6	ILL	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+1.2
12	6-6	USC	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+2.0
13	6-7	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+1.3
14	7-7	ILL	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+1.4
15	8-7	USC	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+2.3
16	8-8	USC	ILL	Kill	Ashlyn Philpot	set Kenna Phelan	+1.5
17	9-8	ILL	USC	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Taylor Deckert	+1.6
18	9-9	USC	ILL	Kill	Kenna Phelan	set Lilli Etter	+1.5
19	10-9	ILL	USC	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Taylor Deckert	+1.7
20	10-10	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+1.6
21	11-10	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+1.8
22	11-11	USC	ILL×5	Serve err	Southern California		+1.6
23	11-12	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+2.4
24	11-13	ILL	ILL×5	Attack err	London Wijay		+2.2
25	11-14	ILL	ILL×5	Blocked	Mia Tvrdy	blk Paityn Chapman, Ashlyn Philpot	+1.9
26	11-15	ILL	ILL×5	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+1.5
27	12-15	ILL	USC×3	Serve err	Illinois		+0.8
28	13-15	USC	USC×3	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+1.7
29	14-15	USC	USC×3	Blocked	Paityn Chapman	blk Mia Tvrdy, London Wijay	+2.3
30	14-16	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+1.6
31	15-16	ILL	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+1.6
32	15-17	USC	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.7
33	15-18	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Ashlyn Philpot	set Kenna Phelan	+2.2
34	15-19	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Riley Malloy		+1.6
35	16-19	ILL	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.8
36	16-20	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+1.1
37	17-20	ILL	USC	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Milly McGee	+0.8
38	17-21	USC	ILL	Attack err	Riley Malloy		+1.1
39	18-21	ILL	USC	Attack err	Kristina Starostenko		+0.7
40	18-22	USC	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
41	19-22	ILL	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
42	20-22	USC	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Lilli Etter	+1.7
43	20-23	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.7
44	21-23	ILL	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+1.0
45	21-24	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.7
46	21-25	ILL	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Talita Goncalves	+0.8
Set 2
1	0-1	USC	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
2	0-2	ILL	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.2
3	1-2	ILL	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Lilli Etter	+0.8
4	1-3	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
5	2-3	ILL	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Lilli Etter	+0.8
6	2-4	USC	ILL×3	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
7	2-5	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.1
8	2-6	ILL	ILL×3	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Ashlyn Philpot, Alyssa Aguayo	+1.0
9	3-6	ILL	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Lilli Etter	+0.6
10	4-6	USC	USC	Attack err	Ashlyn Philpot		+1.1
11	4-7	USC	ILL	Blocked	Mia Tvrdy	blk Alyssa Aguayo, Ashlyn Philpot	+0.8
12	5-7	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+0.8
13	5-8	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+0.8
14	6-8	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+0.8
15	7-8	USC	USC	Attack err	Paityn Chapman		+1.4
16	7-9	USC	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.9
17	7-10	ILL	ILL	Blocked	Riley Malloy	blk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko	+1.3
18	8-10	ILL	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+0.8
19	8-11	USC	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
20	8-12	ILL	ILL	Kill	Maya Harris	set Kenna Phelan	+1.1
21	9-12	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+0.6
22	9-13	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+0.7
23	9-14	ILL	ILL	Blocked	London Wijay	blk Paityn Chapman, Ashlyn Philpot	+0.8
24	10-14	ILL	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.5
25	10-15	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
26	11-15	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+0.4
27	11-16	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
28	11-17	ILL	ILL	Ace	Illinois	aced Paisley Douglas	+0.6
29	12-17	ILL	USC×3	Serve err	Illinois		+0.3
30	13-17	USC	USC×3	Blocked	Taylor de Boer	blk Mia Tvrdy, Milly McGee	+0.6
31	14-17	USC	USC×3	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Milly McGee	+0.9
32	14-18	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+0.8
33	15-18	ILL	USC	Blocked	Taylor de Boer	blk Mia Tvrdy, Milly McGee	+0.6
34	15-19	USC	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.8
35	15-20	ILL	ILL	Attack err	Riley Malloy		+0.8
36	16-20	ILL	USC	Kill	Riley Malloy	set Milly McGee	+0.3
37	17-20	USC	USC	Blocked	Kristina Starostenko	blk Leah Ford, Riley Malloy	+0.8
38	17-21	USC	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Talita Goncalves	+0.8
39	18-21	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+0.5
40	18-22	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+0.8
41	19-22	ILL	USC	Kill	Milly McGee		+0.4
42	19-23	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.7
43	20-23	ILL	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.3
44	21-23	USC	USC	Blocked	Alyssa Aguayo	blk London Wijay, Mia Tvrdy, Milly McGee	+1.1
45	21-24	USC	ILL	Attack err	Mia Tvrdy		+1.3
46	22-24	ILL	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.5
47	23-24	USC	USC	Bad set	Paityn Chapman		+2.0
48	23-25	USC	ILL	Kill	Ashlyn Philpot	set Kenna Phelan	+3.1
Set 3
1	0-1	ILL	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.7
2	1-1	ILL	USC	Kill	Layli Ostovar	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
3	1-2	USC	ILL	Blocked	Abigail Mullen	blk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko	+0.4
4	1-3	ILL	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.6
5	2-3	ILL	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+0.4
6	2-4	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+0.4
7	3-4	ILL	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+0.4
8	3-5	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
9	4-5	ILL	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+0.4
10	5-5	USC	USC	Attack err	Ashlyn Philpot		+0.7
11	5-6	USC	ILL×3	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
12	5-7	ILL	ILL×3	Attack err	Abigail Mullen		+0.7
13	5-8	ILL	ILL×3	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Talita Goncalves	+0.6
14	6-8	ILL	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+0.4
15	6-9	USC	ILL	Kill	Kenna Phelan		+0.4
16	7-9	ILL	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+0.4
17	7-10	USC	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
18	8-10	ILL	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Milly McGee	+0.4
19	8-11	USC	ILL	Kill	Paityn Chapman	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
20	9-11	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+0.4
21	9-12	USC	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
22	10-12	ILL	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+0.4
23	10-13	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
24	11-13	ILL	USC	Kill	Mia Tvrdy	set Milly McGee	+0.4
25	11-14	USC	ILL	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
26	11-15	ILL	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.6
27	12-15	ILL	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Milly McGee	+0.3
28	12-16	USC	ILL	Kill	Taylor de Boer	set Kenna Phelan	+0.4
29	13-16	ILL	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+0.3
30	14-16	USC	USC	Kill	Adonia Faumuina	set Milly McGee	+0.7
31	14-17	USC	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+0.5
32	15-17	ILL	USC	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+0.5
33	16-17	USC	USC	Kill	Abigail Mullen	set Taylor Deckert	+0.9
34	16-18	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+0.7
35	17-18	ILL	USC×3	Kill	Leah Ford	set Milly McGee	+0.7
36	18-18	USC	USC×3	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+1.3
37	19-18	USC	USC×3	Kill	London Wijay	set Addison Townsend	+1.5
38	19-19	USC	ILL	Kill	Kristina Starostenko	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
39	20-19	ILL	USC	Kill	London Wijay	set Milly McGee	+1.1
40	20-20	USC	ILL×5	Kill	Ashlyn Philpot	set Kenna Phelan	+1.0
41	20-21	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Kenna Phelan	+1.7
42	20-22	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Ashlyn Philpot	set Kenna Phelan	+1.5
43	20-23	ILL	ILL×5	Kill	Alyssa Aguayo	set Milly McGee	+1.0
44	20-24	ILL	ILL×5	Ace	Illinois	aced Layli Ostovar	+0.5
45	21-24	ILL	USC	Serve err	Illinois		+0.1
46	21-25	USC	ILL	Serve err	Southern California		+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Southern California first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Illinois def. Southern California 3–0