Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on B1G+

Illinois def. Maryland 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois 82.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Illinois won at Maryland 3-2 (22-25, 25-21, 24-26, 25-18, 15-8) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Illinois' Paityn Chapman led with 21 kills, and Talita Goncalves added 23 digs.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set12345Sets
ILL22252425153
MD2521261882

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Maya Harris served 5 aces, and Illinois needed every one.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Illinois's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Illinois at 82%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 3 · Illinois 23–23 Maryland

    Maryland closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 26–24 and lead 2–1. The match swung to Maryland.

    Illinois 73% → 45%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Illinois 3–4 Maryland

    5 straight Illinois points turned a 3–4 deficit into an 8–4 lead.

    Illinois 56% → 93%

Maryland above 50Illinois belowMax swing 14.9%

IllinoisMaryland

Sideout %
Illinois 67.7·Maryland 60.0
Break %
Illinois 40.0·Maryland 32.3
Hitting
Illinois .297·Maryland .244
Longest run
Illinois 7·Maryland 3

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Maryland above 50 · Illinois below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+14.9% MDrally 209 · set 5

Biggest swing: 14.9% to Maryland — set 3, ILL 24-26 MD. Attack error by Ashlyn Philpot. MD win probability 40% → 55%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ILL 81.9%18.1% MD

Illinois wins

3-0
33.5%
3-1
30.7%
3-2
17.7%

Maryland wins

3-0
2.8%
3-1
5.9%
3-2
9.3%
ILL break %
44.2% vs this opp
MD break %
37.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Ashlyn PhilpotAttack error+14.9%

    Attack error by Ashlyn Philpot

    Set 3 · ILL 24-26 MD · MD 40% → 55%

  2. 02
    Eva RohrbachBlock+12.5%

    Kenna Phelan stuffed by Eva Rohrbach

    Set 3 · ILL 24-25 MD · MD 27% → 40%

  3. 03
    Ashlyn PhilpotAttack error+10.1%

    Attack error by Ashlyn Philpot

    Set 5 · ILL 3-4 MD · MD 34% → 44%

  4. 04

    Kill by Taylor de Boer (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 5 · ILL 5-4 MD · ILL 62% → 72%

  5. 05
    Paityn ChapmanAttack error+9.2%

    Attack error by Paityn Chapman

    Set 5 · ILL 1-2 MD · MD 33% → 42%

  6. 06
    Ashlyn PhilpotBlock+8.6%

    Eva Rohrbach stuffed by Ashlyn Philpot

    Set 5 · ILL 3-2 MD · ILL 63% → 72%

  7. 07

    Kill by Ashlyn Philpot (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 5 · ILL 6-4 MD · ILL 72% → 80%

  8. 08

    Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 3 · ILL 24-23 MD · ILL 73% → 80%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
521853.245203100031.522.5
511422.3181004032415
58223.2610126110110
56210.400000200217
5315.40052211200005
25314.14300002010.55.5
5409.4440551220009
5000–7012310000
410219.4210004020212
3000–010200001
3000–000000000
2000–001000000
Team totals6822155.297629137576810111
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
512531.22601250111.514.5
511227.33310220233.514.5
511647.10601191010.512.5
5408.50000010132.56.5
5006.0004811511012
5000–015900001
517437.3510003400017
5000–221200002
5000–2141910001
2000–001200000
Team totals5517156.2445371757958998

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 ILL · MD 3

Set 1

22-25

Longest run 3 ILLMD 3

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 7 ILLMD 3

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 ILLMD 3

Set 4

25-18

Longest run 3 ILLMD 3

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 5 ILLMD 2

Bars above the line = Maryland leads, below = Illinois leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Illinois

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
53%9/17
2
63%10/16
23%3/13
3
69%9/13
40%6/15
4
67%8/12
44%7/16
5
67%8/12
27%3/11
6
100%8/8
38%5/13
All
68%53/78
39%33/85

Maryland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
83%10/12
40%6/15
2
67%10/15
33%5/15
3
53%9/17
33%5/15
4
62%8/13
38%5/13
5
80%8/10
33%4/12
6
39%7/18
0%0/8
All
61%52/85
32%25/78

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

209 rallies

#ILL-MDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MDMDAceMarylandaced Madi Miles+1.8
21-1MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.1
31-2ILLMDServe errIllinois+1.3
42-2MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.2
53-2ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.7
63-3ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+1.2
74-3MDILLServe errMaryland+1.1
84-4ILLMDServe errIllinois+1.2
94-5MDMDAceMaryland+2.0
105-5MDILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.3
115-6ILLMD×3Serve errIllinois+1.4
125-7MDMD×3KillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+2.3
135-8MDMD×3AceMarylandaced Madi Miles+2.4
146-8MDILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+1.4
156-9ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+1.7
167-9MDILLKillMadi Milesset Talita Goncalves+1.4
177-10ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+1.7
188-10MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.4
198-11ILLMDServe errIllinois+1.8
209-11MDILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Talita Goncalves+1.5
219-12ILLMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.9
229-13MDMDBlockedAshlyn Philpotblk Eva Rohrbach, Brooklynne Brass+2.6
2310-13MDILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.4
2410-14ILLMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.9
2511-14MDILLKillMaya Harris+1.4
2612-14ILLILLAceIllinoisaced Sara Toth+2.4
2712-15ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+2.1
2813-15MDILLKillKenna Phelanset Paityn Chapman+1.6
2913-16ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Raina Chwialkowski+2.1
3014-16MDILL×3KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+1.7
3115-16ILLILL×3KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.9
3216-16ILLILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+3.0
3316-17ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+2.3
3416-18MDMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+3.6
3517-18MDILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+2.1
3617-19ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+2.7
3718-19MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.2
3818-20ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.9
3919-20MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.3
4019-21ILLMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+3.2
4120-21MDILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+2.4
4220-22ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+3.5
4320-23MDMDKillSydney Bryantset Talita Goncalves+4.3
4421-23MDILLServe errMaryland+1.5
4521-24ILLMDAttack errPaityn Chapman+3.1
4622-24MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.1
4722-25ILLMDServe errIllinois+2.9
Set 2
10-1ILLMDAttack errKristina Starostenko+2.0
20-2MDMDAceMarylandaced Maya Harris+3.1
31-2MDILLServe errMaryland+1.9
41-3ILLMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+2.2
52-3MDILLBlockedEva Rohrbachblk Ashlyn Philpot+2.0
62-4ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.3
73-4MDILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.0
84-4ILLILLKillKenna Phelanset Talita Goncalves+3.0
94-5ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.2
105-5MDILLServe errMaryland+2.0
115-6ILLMDKillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+2.3
125-7MDMDBlockedMadi Milesblk Duru Gökçen, Ava Brown+3.6
136-7MDILL×4KillKenna Phelanset Talita Goncalves+2.2
147-7ILLILL×4BlockedAva Brownblk Madi Miles, Kristina Starostenko+3.3
158-7ILL
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+3.1
169-7ILLILL×4KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.8
179-8ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+1.9
1810-8MDILLServe errMaryland+1.9
1910-9ILLMDServe errIllinois+2.0
2011-9MDILLServe errMaryland+2.0
2112-9ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.6
2212-10ILLMDBad setKenna Phelan+1.7
2313-10MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.8
2413-11ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+1.7
2514-11MDILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.8
2614-12ILLMD×3KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.7
2714-13MDMD×3KillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+3.3
2814-14MDMD×3BlockedMadi Milesblk Sara Toth+4.1
2915-14MDILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+2.8
3015-15ILLMD×3Serve errIllinois+3.0
3115-16MDMD×3Attack errMadi Miles+5.0
3215-17MDMD×3AceMarylandaced Talita Goncalves+5.4
3316-17MDILLServe errMaryland+3.1
3416-18ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+4.0
3516-19MDMDAttack errPaityn Chapman+5.6
3617-19MDILL×7Serve errMaryland+2.8
3718-19ILLILL×7KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+5.3
3819-19ILLILL×7AceIllinoisaced Brooklynne Brass+5.9
3920-19ILL
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+6.0
4021-19ILLILL×7AceIllinois+5.3
4122-19ILLILL×7KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+3.9
4223-19ILLILL×7AceIllinoisaced Raina Chwialkowski+2.2
4323-20ILLMDKillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+0.7
4424-20MDILLServe errMaryland+1.3
4524-21ILLMDKillAva Brownset Raina Chwialkowski+0.4
4625-21MDILLServe errMaryland+0.8
Set 3
10-1MDMD×3BlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Ava Brown+2.8
20-2MDMD×3BlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Duru Gökçen, Ava Brown+3.1
30-3MDMD×3Attack errPaityn Chapman+3.3
41-3MDILLServe errMaryland+2.0
52-3ILLILLAttack errAva Brown+3.0
62-4ILLMD×3KillAva Brownset Sara Toth+2.3
72-5MDMD×3KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+3.4
82-6MDMD×3KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+3.5
93-6MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.0
104-6ILLILLBlockedBrooklynne Brassblk Ashlyn Philpot, Paityn Chapman+3.2
114-7ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+2.5
124-8MDMDAceElayna Davidsonaced Alyssa Aguayo+3.7
135-8MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.0
146-8ILLILLAttack errEva Rohrbach+3.3
156-9ILLMDServe errPaityn Chapman+2.7
166-10MDMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+3.8
177-10MDILL×3Serve errBrooklynne Brass+2.1
188-10ILLILL×3KillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+3.5
199-10ILLILL×3KillAshlyn Philpotset Sara Toth+3.6
209-11ILLMDServe errAlyssa Aguayo+2.8
2110-11MDILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+2.5
2210-12ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+2.9
2311-12MDILL×4KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.5
2412-12ILLILL×4AceIllinoisaced Sydney Bryant+3.9
2513-12ILLILL×4KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+3.8
2614-12ILLILL×4KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+3.4
2714-13ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Ava Brown+2.3
2814-14MDMDBlockedKristina Starostenkoblk Duru Gökçen+4.0
2915-14MDILLKillMaya Harrisset Kenna Phelan+2.7
3015-15ILLMDServe errMaya Harris+2.9
3115-16MDMDAttack errPaityn Chapman+4.9
3216-16MDILLServe errAddie Canady+3.1
3316-17ILLMDBlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Ava Brown+3.7
3417-17MDILLAttack errBrooklynne Brass+3.3
3517-18ILLMDServe errPaityn Chapman+3.9
3618-18MDILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+3.6
3718-19ILLMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+4.2
3819-19MDILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+3.8
3920-19ILLILLAttack errBrooklynne Brass+5.9
4020-20ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+4.1
4121-20MDILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+4.3
4221-21ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+4.5
4322-21MDILLServe errHaley Melby+4.9
4422-22ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+5.0
4523-22MDILLAttack errBrooklynne Brass+5.8
4623-23ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+5.8
4724-23MDILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+7.3
4824-24ILLMD×3KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+7.3
4924-25MDMD×3BlockedKenna Phelanblk Eva Rohrbach+12.5
5024-26MDMD×3Attack errAshlyn Philpot+14.9
Set 4
10-1ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+3.0
21-1MDILLKillMaya Harrisset Talita Goncalves+2.7
31-2ILLMD×3Serve errMaya Harris+3.0
41-3MDMD×3AceElayna Davidsonaced Maya Harris+4.8
51-4MDMD×3Attack errAlyssa Aguayo+5.0
62-4MDILL×3KillMaya Harrisset Kenna Phelan+3.0
73-4ILLILL×3BlockedEva Rohrbachblk Alyssa Aguayo+4.6
84-4ILLILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Ashlyn Philpot+4.5
94-5ILLMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+3.3
105-5MDILLBlockedSydney Bryantblk Ashlyn Philpot, Paityn Chapman+3.0
115-6ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+3.4
126-6MDILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+3.1
136-7ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+3.5
147-7MDILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+3.2
158-7ILLILLAceIllinoisaced Sydney Bryant+4.6
168-8ILLMDBlockedTaylor de Boerblk Ava Brown, Duru Gökçen+3.3
179-8MDILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+3.2
1810-8ILLILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+4.4
1910-9ILLMDAttack errTaylor de Boer+2.9
2011-9MDILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+3.0
2111-10ILLMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+3.0
2212-10MDILLServe errElayna Davidson+3.1
2313-10ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+4.0
2413-11ILLMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+2.5
2513-12MDMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+4.7
2614-12MDILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+3.3
2715-12ILLILL×3BlockedSydney Bryantblk Ashlyn Philpot+4.3
2816-12ILLILL×3Attack errBrooklynne Brass+3.4
2916-13ILLMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.9
3017-13MDILLAttack errSydney Bryant+2.3
3117-14ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+1.9
3218-14MDILL×3KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+2.3
3319-14ILLILL×3BlockedSydney Bryantblk Taylor de Boer+2.4
3420-14ILLILL×3KillTaylor de Boerset Paityn Chapman+1.4
3520-15ILLMDKillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+0.5
3621-15MDILLServe errHaley Melby+0.8
3721-16ILLMDKillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+0.4
3821-17MDMDAttack errPaityn Chapman+1.2
3922-17MDILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.3
4023-17ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+0.8
4124-17ILLILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+0.2
4224-18ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth·
4325-18MDILLBlockedBrooklynne Brassblk Kristina Starostenko, Paityn Chapman+1.4
Set 5
11-0MDILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+5.2
21-1ILLMDServe errTalita Goncalves+5.6
31-2MDMDAttack errPaityn Chapman+9.2
42-2MDILLServe errRaina Chwialkowski+5.9
53-2ILLILLBlockedEva Rohrbachblk Ashlyn Philpot+8.6
63-3ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+6.1
73-4MDMDAttack errAshlyn Philpot+10.1
84-4MDILL×5KillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+6.4
95-4ILLILL×5KillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+9.4
106-4ILLILL×5KillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+8.5
117-4ILLILL×5BlockedEva Rohrbachblk Taylor de Boer+7.1
128-4ILLILL×5KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+5.3
138-5ILLMDAttack errAshlyn Philpot+2.8
149-5MDILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+3.6
159-6ILLMDKillSydney Bryantset Elayna Davidson+2.7
169-7MDMDKillSydney Bryantset Elayna Davidson+6.2
1710-7MDILLKillTaylor de Boerset Kenna Phelan+5.3
1811-7ILLILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+5.5
1911-8ILLMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.4
2012-8MDILL×4KillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+3.5
2113-8ILLILL×4KillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+2.6
2214-8ILLILL×4KillKristina Starostenko+0.9
2315-8ILLILL×4AceIllinoisaced Sydney Bryant+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Illinois first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).