Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 29, 2026Watch on BTN

Illinois def. Northwestern 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois 95.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 29, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Illinois beat visiting Northwestern 3-2 (22-25, 25-22, 22-25, 25-15, 15-6) on Thu, Oct 29, 2026. Paityn Chapman led Illinois with 14 kills; Northwestern's Isabella Bullington had a match-high 18.

Data through · final Oct 29

Set12345Sets
NW2522251562
ILL22252225153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Illinois finished off Northwestern 15–6 in the fifth.

The match turned twice. Numbers are Illinois's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. RallyIQ gave Illinois 95% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Northwestern 0–0 Illinois

    Illinois scored 4 straight to open the set 4–0.

    Illinois 78% → 95%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Northwestern 5–6 Illinois

    Illinois scored 6 straight to stretch a 6–5 lead to 12–5.

    Illinois 82% → >99%

Illinois above 50Northwestern belowMax swing 6.4%

NorthwesternIllinois

Sideout %
Northwestern 50.0·Illinois 58.5
Break %
Northwestern 41.5·Illinois 50.0
Hitting
Northwestern .188·Illinois .231
Longest run
Northwestern 5·Illinois 7

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Illinois above 50 · Northwestern below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+6.4% NWrally 202 · set 5

Biggest swing: 6.4% to Northwestern — set 5, NW 5-6 ILL. Attack error by Madi Miles. ILL win probability 89% → 82%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW 5.2%94.8% ILL

Northwestern wins

3-0
0.6%
3-1
1.5%
3-2
3.1%

Illinois wins

3-0
54.9%
3-1
29.8%
3-2
10.1%
NW break %
34.7% vs this opp
ILL break %
47.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Madi MilesAttack error+6.4%

    Attack error by Madi Miles

    Set 5 · NW 5-6 ILL · NW 11% → 18%

  2. 02
    Sophi RandallKill+5.4%

    Kill by Sophi Randall (set by Isabella Bullington)

    Set 5 · NW 5-8 ILL · ILL 87% → 92%

  3. 03
    Maya StillwellAttack error+5.4%

    Attack error by Maya Stillwell

    Set 5 · NW 0-2 ILL · ILL 82% → 87%

  4. 04

    Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 2 · NW 20-20 ILL · NW 17% → 21%

  5. 05

    Kill by Ashlyn Philpot (set by Sophi Randall)

    Set 5 · NW 5-7 ILL · ILL 82% → 87%

  6. 06

    Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 3 · NW 22-18 ILL · NW 28% → 32%

  7. 07

    Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 5 · NW 4-6 ILL · NW 7% → 11%

  8. 08

    Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Talita Goncalves)

    Set 5 · NW 0-3 ILL · ILL 87% → 91%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
518856.17910210010119
514842.14300172132.516.5
512428.2860001006315
58420.20000010174.512.5
5207.2864502800213
5000–200700000
5001.0002001700000
4117.00000000031.52.5
4104.25010000010.51.5
4000–000000000
4000–003730000
1000–000110000
Team totals5625165.18851085963221493
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514839.15412320002117
513524.3330001006316
512434.2352107002114
511318.44400020031.512.5
5337.000013600004
3104.2502800500212
511638.1320007000011
5000–7101800001
5001.000000200000
4203.667251240031.54.5
11011.000000000001
Team totals6829169.23163687200189109

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 NW · ILL 7

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 3 NWILL 5

Set 2

22-25

Longest run 2 NWILL 5

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 5 NWILL 7

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 5 NWILL 4

Set 5

6-15

Longest run 3 NWILL 6

Bars above the line = Illinois leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%11/21
47%8/17
2
67%10/15
38%6/16
3
40%10/25
33%5/15
4
36%9/25
57%13/23
5
58%7/12
25%3/12
6
70%7/10
36%4/11
All
50%54/108
41%39/94

Illinois

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%10/17
20%2/10
2
67%10/15
50%10/20
3
56%10/18
55%12/22
4
50%10/20
60%15/25
5
69%9/13
50%9/18
6
55%6/11
46%6/13
All
59%55/94
50%54/108

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

202 rallies

#NW-ILLSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0ILLNW×3BlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Maya Stillwell, Campbell Paris+0.5
22-0NWNW×3Attack errKristina Starostenko+0.8
33-0NWNW×3Attack errMaya Harris+1.0
43-1NWILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+0.5
54-1ILLNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.7
64-2NWILL×3KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+0.6
74-3ILLILL×3Attack errIsabella Bullington+0.8
84-4ILLILL×3AceTalita Goncalvesaced Mara Stiglic+0.8
95-4ILLNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.6
105-5NWILLKillMaya Harrisset Kenna Phelan+0.5
115-6ILLILLAttack errMara Stiglic+0.7
126-6ILLNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
137-6NWNWAttack errAshlyn Philpot+0.9
147-7NWILLAttack errIsabella Bullington+0.6
157-8ILLILLKillMadi Milesset Paityn Chapman+0.8
168-8ILLNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.6
179-8NWNW×3Attack errMadi Miles+1.0
1810-8NWNW×3BlockedMadi Milesblk Ellie Stiernagle, Maya Stillwell+1.2
1910-9NWILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+0.7
2010-10ILLILLAttack errIsabella Bullington+1.0
2111-10ILLNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+0.8
2211-11NWILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+0.7
2312-11ILLNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.8
2413-11NWNW×3BlockedMadi Milesblk Maya Stillwell, Mara Stiglic+1.4
2514-11NWNW×3KillMaya Stillwellset Drew Wright+1.5
2614-12NWILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+0.8
2715-12ILLNWServe errMaya Harris+1.1
2815-13NWILL×5KillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+0.8
2915-14ILLILL×5KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.4
3015-15ILLILL×5Attack errCampbell Paris+1.3
3115-16ILLILL×5KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.2
3215-17ILLILL×5KillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.0
3316-17ILLNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+0.7
3417-17NWNW×3BlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Gabrielle Gerry, Mara Stiglic+1.3
3518-17NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
3618-18NWILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.0
3718-19ILLILLAttack errMara Stiglic+1.5
3819-19ILLNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.1
3920-19NWNWAttack errAshlyn Philpot+2.1
4020-20NWILLServe errMara Stiglic+1.3
4121-20ILLNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
4222-20NWNW×3KillMaya Stillwell+2.7
4323-20NWNW×3Attack errMadi Miles+2.6
4423-21NWILLKillMaya Harrisset Kenna Phelan+0.9
4523-22ILLILLAttack errMaya Stillwell+2.2
4624-22ILLNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.7
4725-22NWNWBlockedMaya Harrisblk Maya Stillwell, Campbell Paris+2.6
Set 2
11-0NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+1.9
21-1NWILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Talita Goncalves+1.2
32-1ILLNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.4
42-2NWILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.2
53-2ILLNWKillEllie Stiernagle+1.5
63-3NWILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.3
74-3ILLNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.5
85-3NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.6
95-4NWILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.5
106-4ILLNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
116-5NWILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+1.6
127-5ILLNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
137-6NWILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+1.6
148-6ILLNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
158-7NWILL×5KillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.7
168-8ILLILL×5BlockedMara Stiglicblk Paityn Chapman, Ashlyn Philpot+2.5
178-9ILLILL×5KillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+2.2
188-10ILLILL×5BlockedCampbell Parisblk Alyssa Aguayo, Ashlyn Philpot+1.9
198-11ILLILL×5KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.5
209-11ILLNWBlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Gabrielle Gerry, Mara Stiglic+1.0
2110-11NWNWKillGabrielle Gerry+1.9
2210-12NWILLServe errGigi Navarrete+1.3
2310-13ILLILLBlockedMara Stiglicblk Kenna Phelan, Ashlyn Philpot+1.6
2411-13ILLNWServe errPaityn Chapman+1.1
2512-13NWNWAttack errAshlyn Philpot+2.1
2612-14NWILLAttack errGabrielle Gerry+1.4
2713-14ILLNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
2813-15NWILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.5
2913-16ILLILLKillAva Wysockiset Sophi Randall+1.9
3014-16ILLNWServe errSophi Randall+1.2
3114-17NWILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.3
3215-17ILLNWBlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell+1.2
3315-18NWILLServe errIsabella Bullington+1.3
3416-18ILLNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.2
3517-18NWNWAttack errKristina Starostenko+2.7
3617-19NWILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+2.0
3718-19ILLNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
3818-20NWILLServe errGigi Navarrete+2.2
3919-20ILLNWServe errPaityn Chapman+2.1
4020-20NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+4.6
4120-21NWILL×3KillKenna Phelan+3.3
4220-22ILLILL×3BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Kenna Phelan, Ashlyn Philpot+4.1
4320-23ILLILL×3KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.6
4421-23ILLNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.0
4521-24NWILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.6
4622-24ILLNWAttack errPaityn Chapman+0.7
4722-25NWILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.4
Set 3
11-0ILLNWAttack errAlyssa Aguayo+1.2
21-1NWILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.0
32-1ILLNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.2
43-1NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
54-1NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Isabella Bullington+2.3
64-2NWILL×3BlockedCampbell Parisblk Ashlyn Philpot, Alyssa Aguayo+1.3
74-3ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Talita Goncalves+1.9
84-4ILLILL×3Bad setEllie Stiernagle+1.8
95-4ILLNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.4
106-4NWNW×3BlockedAshlyn Philpotblk Mara Stiglic+2.3
117-4NWNW×3KillMara Stiglic+2.6
127-5NWILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+1.4
138-5ILLNWKillHayley Schaafset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
148-6NWILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+1.5
159-6ILLNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
169-7NWILLKillMadi Milesset Alyssa Aguayo+1.5
1710-7ILLNW×5KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
1811-7NWNW×5KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.1
1912-7NWNW×5BlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Maya Stillwell, Campbell Paris+3.1
2013-7NWNW×5BlockedKristina Starostenkoblk Maya Stillwell+3.0
2114-7NWNW×5Attack errPaityn Chapman+2.6
2214-8NWILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.1
2315-8ILLNWServe errMaya Harris+1.8
2415-9NWILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+1.1
2515-10ILLILLAttack errMaya Stillwell+2.1
2616-10ILLNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.1
2717-10NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Lauren Dignan+2.5
2817-11NWILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+0.9
2918-11ILLNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
3019-11NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
3120-11NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Hayley Schaaf+1.0
3220-12NWILL×7KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+0.3
3320-13ILLILL×7KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+0.6
3420-14ILLILL×7AceAlyssa Aguayoaced Gigi Navarrete+1.0
3520-15ILLILL×7KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+1.4
3620-16ILLILL×7KillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+2.0
3720-17ILLILL×7KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+2.7
3820-18ILLILL×7KillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+3.5
3921-18ILLNWKillEllie Stiernagle+3.6
4022-18NWNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+4.4
4122-19NWILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+1.5
4223-19ILLNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+3.0
4323-20NWILLKillSophi Randall+1.2
4424-20ILLNWServe errSophi Randall+2.7
4524-21NWILLServe errEllie Stiernagle+0.7
4624-22ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+2.2
4725-22ILLNWKillCampbell Parisset Lauren Dignan+4.2
Set 4
10-1NWILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+2.0
20-2ILLILLAttack errMaya Stillwell+2.7
31-2ILLNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
41-3NWILL×4KillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+1.8
51-4ILLILL×4Bad setHayley Schaaf+2.3
61-5ILLILL×4Attack errCampbell Paris+1.8
71-6ILLILL×4KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+1.4
82-6ILLNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.9
92-7NWILL×4KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+0.9
102-8ILLILL×4KillMaya Harrisset Sophi Randall+1.0
112-9ILLILL×4AcePaityn Chapmanaced Gigi Navarrete+0.7
122-10ILLILL×4Attack errMara Stiglic+0.5
133-10ILLNWServe errPaityn Chapman+0.3
143-11NWILLAttack errIsabella Bullington+0.3
153-12ILLILLKillMadi Milesset Alyssa Aguayo+0.3
164-12ILLNWBlockedMadi Milesblk Hayley Schaaf, Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
174-13NWILL×3KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+0.2
184-14ILLILL×3KillKristina Starostenkoset Sophi Randall+0.2
194-15ILLILL×3KillKristina Starostenkoset Sophi Randall+0.1
205-15ILLNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle·
215-16NWILLServe errEllie Stiernagle·
225-17ILLILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall·
236-17ILLNWBlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Campbell Paris, Maya Stillwell·
247-17NWNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle·
257-18NWILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Sophi Randall·
267-19ILLILLAceMaya Harrisaced Mara Stiglic·
278-19ILLNWServe errMaya Harris·
289-19NWNWAttack errMaya Harris·
299-20NWILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall·
3010-20ILLNWBlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Gabrielle Gerry, Campbell Paris·
3110-21NWILL×3Serve errGigi Navarrete·
3210-22ILLILL×3AcePaityn Chapmanaced Gigi Navarrete·
3310-23ILLILL×3Attack errMara Stiglic·
3411-23ILLNW×5Attack errAlyssa Aguayo·
3512-23NWNW×5Attack errAlyssa Aguayo·
3613-23NWNW×5KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle·
3714-23NWNW×5KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle·
3815-23NWNW×5BlockedAshlyn Philpotblk Isabella Bullington·
3915-24NWILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall·
4015-25ILLILLKillMadi Milesset Talita Goncalves+1.2
Set 5
10-1NWILL×4Serve errIsabella Bullington+4.0
20-2ILLILL×4Attack errMaya Stillwell+5.4
30-3ILLILL×4KillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+4.3
40-4ILLILL×4BlockedMara Stiglicblk Paityn Chapman, Ashlyn Philpot+3.2
51-4ILLNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
61-5NWILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+2.1
72-5ILLNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
82-6NWILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+2.2
93-6ILLNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
104-6NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+4.4
115-6NWNW×3Attack errMadi Miles+6.4
125-7NWILL×6KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+4.5
135-8ILLILL×6KillSophi Randallset Isabella Bullington+5.4
145-9ILLILL×6BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Sophi Randall, Kristina Starostenko+3.7
155-10ILLILL×6BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Sophi Randall, Kristina Starostenko+2.2
165-11ILLILL×6Attack errMara Stiglic+1.1
175-12ILLILL×6KillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+0.5
186-12ILLNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
196-13NWILL×3BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Sophi Randall, Kristina Starostenko+0.2
206-14ILLILL×3AceSophi Randallaced Lily Wagner+0.1
216-15ILLILL×3KillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall·

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).