Final · 4 setsThu, Nov 5, 2026Watch on B1G+

UCLA def. Illinois 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois 67.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Nov 5, 5:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

UCLA won at Illinois 3-1 (17-25, 25-15, 25-21, 26-24) on Thu, Nov 5, 2026. Mija Bendziute and Eliana Urzua led UCLA with 12 kills each; Illinois' Alyssa Aguayo had a match-high 19.

Data through · final Nov 5

Set1234Sets
UCLA172525263
ILL251521241

Match story · written from the play-by-play

RallyIQ gave UCLA 33%. UCLA won anyway.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are UCLA's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, Illinois was RallyIQ's 67% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · UCLA 10–12 Illinois

    UCLA scored 4 straight to turn a 10–12 deficit into a 14–12 lead.

    UCLA 58% → 78%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 4 · UCLA 17–16 Illinois

    4 straight Illinois points turned a 16–17 deficit into a 20–17 lead.

    UCLA 73% → 50%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 4 · UCLA 23–23 Illinois

    UCLA won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 26–24 and win the match 3–1.

    UCLA 66% → >99%

Illinois above 50UCLA belowMax swing 17.4%

UCLAIllinois

Sideout %
UCLA 61.6·Illinois 56.5
Break %
UCLA 43.5·Illinois 38.4
Hitting
UCLA .235·Illinois .247
Longest run
UCLA 4·Illinois 4

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Illinois above 50 · UCLA below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+17.4% UCLArally 178 · set 4

Biggest swing: 17.4% to UCLA — set 4, UCLA 26-24 ILL. Kenna Phelan stuffed by Hazel Alevok. ILL win probability 17% → 0%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

UCLA 36.3%63.7% ILL

UCLA wins

3-0
7.6%
3-1
13.1%
3-2
15.7%

Illinois wins

3-0
19.2%
3-1
24.4%
3-2
20.0%
UCLA break %
39.5% vs this opp
ILL break %
42.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Hazel AlevokBlock+17.4%

    Kenna Phelan stuffed by Hazel Alevok

    Set 4 · UCLA 26-24 ILL · UCLA 83% → 100%

  2. 02

    Alyssa Aguayo stuffed by Eliana Urzua & Jordyn Johnson

    Set 4 · UCLA 24-23 ILL · UCLA 66% → 83%

  3. 03
    Mija BendziuteKill+11.5%

    Kill by Mija Bendziute (set by Kate Duffey)

    Set 4 · UCLA 23-23 ILL · UCLA 55% → 66%

  4. 04
    Paityn ChapmanKill+11.1%

    Kill by Paityn Chapman (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 4 · UCLA 24-24 ILL · ILL 17% → 29%

  5. 05
    Mija BendziuteKill+11.1%

    Kill by Mija Bendziute (set by Kat Lutz)

    Set 4 · UCLA 25-24 ILL · UCLA 71% → 83%

  6. 06

    Maggie Li stuffed by Paityn Chapman & Kristina Starostenko

    Set 4 · UCLA 17-18 ILL · ILL 31% → 38%

  7. 07
    Madi MilesKill+6.5%

    Kill by Madi Miles (set by Kenna Phelan)

    Set 4 · UCLA 17-19 ILL · ILL 38% → 45%

  8. 08

    Kristina Starostenko stuffed by Marianna Singletary

    Set 4 · UCLA 21-22 ILL · UCLA 50% → 57%

Box score

Official NCAA box

UCLAaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412327.3330237104216
411529.20701010112214
412336.25000130031.513.5
49322.2730001032413
4339.000300001858
4001.0001810600001
22Kat LutzL/DS
4000–5111300001
4001.000000600000
33110.200000001225
3001.0002000400000
3000–000000000
Team totals5018136.235465550262116.593
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
419355.2910027200019
411528.214002120031.512.5
47617.0590000022310
46214.28600000031.57.5
4102.5003141000002
3123-.333370360010.51.5
415429.3790003000015
4000–2101430001
4000–001100000
1012-.500140150010.50.5
Team totals6023150.24756213585210785

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 UCLA · ILL 4

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 2 UCLAILL 4

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 4 UCLAILL 2

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 UCLAILL 4

Set 4

26-24

Longest run 4 UCLAILL 4

Bars above the line = Illinois leads, below = UCLA leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

UCLA

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%10/19
31%4/13
2
50%10/20
41%7/17
3
90%9/10
55%11/20
4
62%8/13
38%5/13
5
89%8/9
50%8/16
6
53%8/15
38%5/13
All
62%53/86
43%40/92

Illinois

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
25%3/12
2
53%10/19
50%10/20
3
53%8/15
41%7/17
4
53%8/15
27%3/11
5
57%8/14
33%4/12
6
70%7/10
43%6/14
All
57%52/92
38%33/86

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

178 rallies

#UCLA-ILLSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1UCLAILL×4KillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+1.5
20-2ILLILL×4KillAlyssa Aguayoset Maya Harris+2.2
30-3ILLILL×4KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+2.0
40-4ILLILL×4BlockedEliana Urzuablk Ashlyn Philpot, Paityn Chapman+1.8
51-4ILLUCLAKillJordyn Johnsonset Ava Sarafa+1.1
61-5UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+1.2
71-6ILLILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+1.6
82-6ILLUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Ava Sarafa+1.0
93-6UCLAUCLAKillMaggie Liset Sophi Randall+1.7
103-7UCLAILLServe errKat Lutz+1.3
114-7ILLUCLAAttack errMadi Miles+1.2
124-8UCLAILLServe errEliana Urzua+1.3
135-8ILLUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Ava Sarafa+1.2
145-9UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+1.3
156-9ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+1.2
166-10UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+1.4
177-10ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+1.2
187-11UCLAILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Sophi Randall+1.4
198-11ILLUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Ava Sarafa+1.2
209-11UCLAUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kat Lutz+2.2
219-12UCLAILL×3KillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+1.7
229-13ILLILL×3Attack errMaggie Li+2.1
239-14ILLILL×3KillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+1.7
2410-14ILLUCLAAttack errSophi Randall+0.9
2510-15UCLAILLBlockedEliana Urzuablk Ashlyn Philpot+1.2
2611-15ILLUCLAAttack errAshlyn Philpot+0.9
2712-15UCLAUCLAKillMarianna Singletary+1.8
2812-16UCLAILL×3KillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+1.5
2912-17ILLILL×3BlockedMaggie Liblk Sophi Randall, Kristina Starostenko+1.7
3012-18ILLILL×3Attack errMarianna Singletary+1.2
3113-18ILLUCLAKillMaggie Liset Ava Sarafa+0.5
3214-18UCLAUCLAAceMaggie Liaced Alyssa Aguayo+1.2
3314-19UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+1.1
3415-19ILLUCLABlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Marianna Singletary+0.8
3516-19UCLAUCLABlockedMadi Milesblk Jordyn Johnson, Mija Bendziute+1.7
3616-20UCLAILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Sophi Randall+1.6
3716-21ILLILLAceMaya Harrisaced Mija Bendziute+1.5
3817-21ILLUCLAServe errMaya Harris+0.6
3917-22UCLAILL×4KillPaityn Chapmanset Sophi Randall+0.9
4017-23ILLILL×4KillMaya Harrisset Sophi Randall+0.6
4117-24ILLILL×4BlockedJordyn Johnsonblk Ashlyn Philpot+0.2
4217-25ILLILL×4AceTalita Goncalvesaced Maggie Li·
Set 2
10-1ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+1.9
21-1ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+1.4
31-2UCLAILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Sophi Randall+1.3
42-2ILLUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+1.4
53-2UCLAUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+2.1
63-3UCLAILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Sophi Randall+1.4
74-3ILLUCLA×3Serve errIllinois+1.5
85-3UCLAUCLA×3KillMija Bendziuteset Ava Sarafa+2.3
96-3UCLAUCLA×3AceAva Sarafaaced Talita Goncalves+2.3
106-4UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+1.4
116-5ILLILLKillMadi Miles+2.2
127-5ILLUCLA×4Serve errIllinois+1.7
138-5UCLAUCLA×4KillMarianna Singletary+2.4
149-5UCLAUCLA×4BlockedAshlyn Philpotblk Marianna Singletary, Maggie Li+2.3
1510-5UCLAUCLA×4AceMija Bendziuteaced Talita Goncalves+2.1
1610-6UCLAILLServe errMija Bendziute+1.1
1711-6ILLUCLA×4KillHazel Alevokset Ava Sarafa+1.5
1812-6UCLAUCLA×4BlockedMadi Milesblk Jordyn Johnson, Hazel Alevok, Maggie Li+1.8
1913-6UCLAUCLA×4BlockedMadi Milesblk Jordyn Johnson, Hazel Alevok+1.4
2014-6UCLAUCLA×4KillJordyn Johnsonset Ava Sarafa+1.1
2114-7UCLAILLAttack errJordyn Johnson+0.5
2215-7ILLUCLAKillMaggie Liset Ava Sarafa+0.7
2315-8UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+0.4
2416-8ILLUCLA×3KillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+0.7
2517-8UCLAUCLA×3KillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+0.6
2618-8UCLAUCLA×3KillMija Bendziuteset Jordyn Johnson+0.4
2718-9UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+0.1
2819-9ILLUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+0.2
2920-9UCLAUCLABlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Mija Bendziute, Marianna Singletary+0.1
3020-10UCLAILLAttack errMija Bendziute·
3121-10ILLUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+0.1
3221-11UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall·
3321-12ILLILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+0.1
3422-12ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+0.1
3523-12UCLAUCLAAceMija Bendziuteaced Talita Goncalves·
3623-13UCLAILLServe errMija Bendziute·
3724-13ILLUCLAKillHazel Alevokset Ava Sarafa·
3824-14UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall·
3924-15ILLILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall·
4025-15ILLUCLAServe errIllinois·
Set 3
10-1UCLAILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Sophi Randall+2.1
20-2ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+3.0
31-2ILLUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+2.1
41-3UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+2.1
51-4ILLILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Talita Goncalves+2.9
62-4ILLUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+1.9
72-5UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+2.0
83-5ILLUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+1.9
94-5UCLAUCLABlockedAshlyn Philpotblk Jordyn Johnson, Mija Bendziute+3.1
104-6UCLAILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+2.2
115-6ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+2.2
126-6UCLAUCLABlockedKristina Starostenkoblk Jordyn Johnson+3.6
136-7UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+2.5
147-7ILLUCLAAttack errPaityn Chapman+2.6
157-8UCLAILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Sophi Randall+2.6
168-8ILLUCLA×4KillMaggie Liset Ava Sarafa+2.6
179-8UCLAUCLA×4KillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+4.1
1810-8UCLAUCLA×4KillMaggie Liset Kat Lutz+4.3
1911-8UCLAUCLA×4KillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+4.2
2011-9UCLAILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Talita Goncalves+2.5
2112-9ILLUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+3.0
2213-9UCLAUCLABlockedAshlyn Philpotblk Marianna Singletary+4.0
2313-10UCLAILL×4KillAlyssa Aguayoset Sophi Randall+2.3
2413-11ILLILL×4KillPaityn Chapmanset Sophi Randall+3.9
2513-12ILLILL×4KillAlyssa Aguayoset Maya Harris+4.4
2613-13ILLILL×4KillSophi Randallset Marianna Singletary+4.7
2714-13ILLUCLA×4Attack errAshlyn Philpot+3.5
2815-13UCLAUCLA×4BlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Eliana Urzua, Jordyn Johnson+5.2
2916-13UCLAUCLA×4Attack errAshlyn Philpot+5.0
3017-13UCLAUCLA×4KillEliana Urzuaset Jordyn Johnson+4.4
3117-14UCLAILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Sophi Randall+2.3
3217-15ILLILLAttack errMija Bendziute+4.2
3318-15ILLUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+3.7
3418-16UCLAILLAttack errJordyn Johnson+2.9
3518-17ILLILLAttack errHazel Alevok+5.3
3619-17ILLUCLAKillHazel Alevokset Ava Sarafa+4.4
3720-17UCLAUCLAAttack errSophi Randall+5.9
3820-18UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+2.9
3921-18ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+4.3
4022-18UCLAUCLAAceKat Lutzaced Alyssa Aguayo+4.5
4122-19UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Sophi Randall+1.7
4223-19ILLUCLAKillMaggie Liset Ava Sarafa+3.0
4323-20UCLAILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Sophi Randall+1.3
4424-20ILLUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+2.6
4524-21UCLAILLKillAshlyn Philpotset Sophi Randall+0.7
4625-21ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+1.8
Set 4
11-0ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+2.8
22-0UCLAUCLAAttack errPaityn Chapman+4.1
32-1UCLAILL×4KillAlyssa Aguayoset Maya Harris+2.7
42-2ILLILL×4Attack errEliana Urzua+4.0
52-3ILLILL×4KillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+3.9
62-4ILLILL×4KillAshlyn Philpotset Kenna Phelan+3.8
73-4ILLUCLAKillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+2.5
83-5UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.6
94-5ILLUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+2.6
104-6UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+2.7
115-6ILLUCLAKillJordyn Johnsonset Ava Sarafa+2.7
126-6UCLAUCLAKillMaggie Liset Ava Sarafa+4.3
136-7UCLAILLKillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+2.9
147-7ILLUCLAKillMaggie Liset Ava Sarafa+3.1
157-8UCLAILL×3Attack errMarianna Singletary+3.0
167-9ILLILL×3BlockedMaggie Liblk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko+4.3
177-10ILLILL×3Attack errMaggie Li+3.9
188-10ILLUCLAServe errIllinois+2.5
199-10UCLAUCLABad setKenna Phelan+4.2
209-11UCLAILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+3.1
2110-11ILLUCLAKillEliana Urzuaset Kate Duffey+3.0
2210-12UCLAILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+3.2
2311-12ILLUCLA×4KillMarianna Singletaryset Kate Duffey+3.1
2412-12UCLAUCLA×4Bad setKenna Phelan+5.2
2513-12UCLAUCLA×4BlockedPaityn Chapmanblk Jordyn Johnson, Mija Bendziute+5.7
2614-12UCLAUCLA×4BlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Eliana Urzua, Jordyn Johnson+5.9
2714-13UCLAILLKillAlyssa Aguayoset Kenna Phelan+3.6
2815-13ILLUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Jordyn Johnson+4.2
2915-14UCLAILLBlockedMija Bendziuteblk Kenna Phelan, Ashlyn Philpot+3.8
3016-14ILLUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Ava Sarafa+4.4
3116-15UCLAILLServe errMija Bendziute+3.9
3216-16ILLILLKillMadi Miles+6.4
3317-16ILLUCLAKillMaggie Liset Ava Sarafa+4.8
3417-17UCLAILL×4KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+4.6
3517-18ILLILL×4BlockedMaggie Liblk Paityn Chapman, Kristina Starostenko+7.0
3617-19ILLILL×4KillMadi Milesset Kenna Phelan+6.5
3717-20ILLILL×4Serve errIllinois+5.5
3818-20ILLUCLAKillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+2.9
3918-21UCLAILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+3.9
4018-22ILLILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+3.8
4119-22ILLUCLA×3KillMaggie Liset Kate Duffey+1.5
4220-22UCLAUCLA×3KillMija Bendziuteset Kat Lutz+3.8
4321-22UCLAUCLA×3BlockedKristina Starostenkoblk Marianna Singletary+6.5
4421-23UCLAILLKillKristina Starostenkoset Kenna Phelan+6.3
4522-23ILLUCLA×3KillMija Bendziuteset Kat Lutz+4.5
4623-23UCLAUCLA×3KillMija Bendziuteset Kate Duffey+11.5
4724-23UCLAUCLA×3BlockedAlyssa Aguayoblk Eliana Urzua, Jordyn Johnson+16.1
4824-24UCLAILLKillPaityn Chapmanset Kenna Phelan+11.1
4925-24ILLUCLAKillMija Bendziuteset Kat Lutz+11.1
5026-24UCLAUCLABlockedKenna Phelanblk Hazel Alevok+17.4

Score shown after each rally, UCLA first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).