Final · 4 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026 · Neutral site

Buffalo def. Lindenwood 3–1

Buffalo beat Lindenwood 3-1 (18-25, 25-23, 25-22, 25-22) on Sat, Aug 29, 2026 at a neutral site. Buffalo's Manoela Forlin led with 16 kills, and Anaya Cole added 15 digs.

Data through · final Aug 29

Set1234Sets
LINWOD252322221
BUFF182525253

Win probability

Buffalo above 50 · Lindenwood below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+10.7% BUFFrally 185 · set 4

Biggest swing: 10.7% to Buffalo — set 4, LINWOD 19-21 BUFF. Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell). BUFF win probability 67% → 78%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

LINWOD 84.5%15.5% BUFF

Lindenwood wins

3-0
36.4%
3-1
31.2%
3-2
16.8%

Buffalo wins

3-0
2.3%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
8.2%
LINWOD break %
46.1% vs this opp
BUFF break %
38.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sydney BellKill+10.7%

    Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 4 · LINWOD 19-21 BUFF · BUFF 67% → 78%

  2. 02
    Sydney BellKill+10.0%

    Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 4 · LINWOD 19-22 BUFF · BUFF 78% → 88%

  3. 03
    Susanna BerettiAttack error+9.0%

    Attack error by Susanna Beretti

    Set 4 · LINWOD 18-19 BUFF · BUFF 57% → 66%

  4. 04
    Lauren OrtwerthAttack error+8.2%

    Attack error by Lauren Ortwerth

    Set 4 · LINWOD 21-24 BUFF · BUFF 87% → 95%

  5. 05
    Sydney BellKill+7.9%

    Kill by Sydney Bell (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 4 · LINWOD 20-23 BUFF · BUFF 83% → 91%

  6. 06

    Kill by Hailey Campagna (set by Maddie Mitchell)

    Set 4 · LINWOD 22-25 BUFF · BUFF 92% → 100%

  7. 07
    LindenwoodService error+7.7%

    Lindenwood service error

    Set 3 · LINWOD 22-24 BUFF · BUFF 37% → 45%

  8. 08
    BuffaloAce+7.5%

    Buffalo ace on Susanna Beretti

    Set 3 · LINWOD 20-22 BUFF · BUFF 32% → 39%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410424.2500014014313
410526.19211063111.512.5
49226.269011140010.510.5
47318.222000000218
4227.0003601700424
4001.000013210001
411630.16700040111.512.5
4000–5221310002
4000–0141010001
2001.000301100000
1112.00000000010.51.5
Team totals5023135.200456136173141092
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416444.273223121010.518.5
410839.05113351031.514.5
410523.2172000000010
46216.250000000217
42112.083352290010.54.5
1124-.25000000010.51.5
4000–5001520000
3406.667102201226
31011.000003700001
1000–001110000
1000–000000000
Team totals5022145.19346714516110693

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 LINWOD · BUFF 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 LINWODBUFF 3

Set 2

23-25

Longest run 3 LINWODBUFF 3

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 5 LINWODBUFF 5

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 3 LINWODBUFF 3

Bars above the line = Buffalo leads, below = Lindenwood leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Lindenwood

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%11/19
9%1/11
2
59%10/17
52%11/21
3
63%10/16
29%4/14
4
69%9/13
47%9/19
5
47%8/17
36%5/14
6
80%8/10
43%6/14
All
61%56/92
39%36/93

Buffalo

SlotSideout %Break %
1
71%12/17
47%9/19
2
56%10/18
31%5/16
3
59%10/17
41%7/17
4
60%9/15
31%4/13
5
50%8/16
33%4/12
6
80%8/10
47%7/15
All
61%57/93
39%36/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

185 rallies

#LINWOD-BUFFSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1LINWODBUFFBlockedAutumn Baxblk Manoela Forlin, Ava Kanj+1.2
21-1BUFFLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.1
32-1LINWODLINWODAttack errSydney Bell+1.4
42-2LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
52-3BUFFBUFFAttack errKaci Johnson+1.7
63-3BUFFLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.1
73-4LINWODBUFF×3KillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
83-5BUFFBUFF×3KillMaddie Mitchellset Manoela Forlin+1.9
93-6BUFFBUFF×3BlockedKylee Richeyblk Abisola Adebayo, Hailey Campagna+2.0
104-6BUFFLINWOD×3Serve errBuffalo+1.3
115-6LINWODLINWOD×3BlockedHailey Campagnablk Kylee Richey, Kaci Johnson+1.8
126-6LINWODLINWOD×3AceLindenwoodaced Chloe Brown+1.8
136-7LINWODBUFFAttack errLauren Ortwerth+1.4
147-7BUFFLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.3
158-7LINWODLINWODAttack errAva Kanj+1.7
168-8LINWODBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
179-8BUFFLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.3
1810-8LINWODLINWODBlockedAva Kanjblk Ashley Geluck, Lauren Ortwerth+1.6
1910-9LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+1.2
2011-9BUFFLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.2
2112-9LINWODLINWODAttack errHailey Campagna+1.4
2212-10LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+1.0
2313-10BUFFLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.1
2414-10LINWODLINWODKillKylee Richey+1.2
2514-11LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+0.8
2615-11BUFFLINWOD×3Serve errBuffalo+0.9
2716-11LINWODLINWOD×3BlockedManoela Forlinblk Kylee Richey, Kaci Johnson+0.9
2817-11LINWODLINWOD×3AceLindenwoodaced Anaya Cole+0.6
2917-12LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+0.3
3018-12BUFFLINWOD×4KillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+0.4
3119-12LINWODLINWOD×4Attack errHailey Campagna+0.4
3220-12LINWODLINWOD×4BlockedHailey Campagnablk Kylee Richey, Kaci Johnson+0.2
3321-12LINWODLINWOD×4BlockedHailey Campagnablk Kylee Richey, Kaci Johnson+0.1
3421-13LINWODBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell·
3522-13BUFFLINWODKillKylee Richeyset Kaci Johnson·
3622-14LINWODBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Anaya Cole·
3723-14BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo·
3823-15LINWODBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell·
3923-16BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Dana Grib·
4023-17BUFFBUFF×3KillAva Kanj+0.1
4124-17BUFFLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+0.1
4224-18LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell·
4325-18BUFFLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson·
Set 2
10-1BUFFBUFFAceBuffaloaced Mandy Lawson+1.2
20-2BUFFBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
31-2BUFFLINWODKillKylee Richeyset Kaci Johnson+0.8
41-3LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+1.0
52-3BUFFLINWODKillKaci Johnsonset Susanna Beretti+0.9
62-4LINWODBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Anaya Cole+1.0
72-5BUFFBUFF×3KillSadie Gladhillset Sadie Gladhill+1.4
82-6BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Hailey Campagna+1.5
93-6BUFFLINWODKillKylee Richeyset Kaci Johnson+0.9
103-7LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+1.1
114-7BUFFLINWODBlockedAbisola Adebayoblk Lauren Ortwerth+0.9
124-8LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
135-8BUFFLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+0.9
146-8LINWODLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.4
156-9LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+1.2
167-9BUFFLINWODBlockedHailey Campagnablk Autumn Bax, Ashley Geluck+1.0
177-10LINWODBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.2
187-11BUFFBUFFAceBuffalo+1.7
198-11BUFFLINWOD×3KillSusanna Berettiset Dana Grib+1.0
209-11LINWODLINWOD×3Attack errSydney Bell+1.5
2110-11LINWODLINWOD×3KillKaci Johnson+1.5
2210-12LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.3
2311-12BUFFLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.1
2411-13LINWODBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.4
2512-13BUFFLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.2
2613-13LINWODLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+1.7
2713-14LINWODBUFF×3Serve errLindenwood+1.4
2813-15BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Susanna Beretti+2.0
2913-16BUFFBUFF×3AceBuffaloaced Alayna Rudebeck+2.1
3014-16BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+1.2
3115-16LINWODLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+1.9
3215-17LINWODBUFF×3KillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+1.7
3315-18BUFFBUFF×3Attack errLauren Ortwerth+2.3
3415-19BUFFBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.1
3516-19BUFFLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.0
3617-19LINWODLINWODAttack errHailey Campagna+1.8
3717-20LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
3818-20BUFFLINWODKillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+1.3
3918-21LINWODBUFFAttack errSusanna Beretti+2.0
4019-21BUFFLINWODAttack errSydney Bell+1.3
4120-21LINWODLINWODBlockedSydney Bellblk Susanna Beretti, Jade Roth+2.4
4220-22LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+2.5
4320-23BUFFBUFFAttack errJade Roth+3.0
4421-23BUFFLINWODKillKylee Richeyset Greta Shadewald+1.2
4522-23LINWODLINWODKillJade Roth+2.7
4622-24LINWODBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+3.4
4723-24BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+1.8
4823-25LINWODBUFFBlockedAshley Geluckblk Abisola Adebayo, Maddie Mitchell+4.8
Set 3
10-1LINWODBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
21-1BUFFLINWOD×5KillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+1.8
32-1LINWODLINWOD×5AceLindenwoodaced Hailey Campagna+2.3
43-1LINWODLINWOD×5KillAutumn Baxset Dana Grib+2.1
54-1LINWODLINWOD×5KillKylee Richey+1.9
65-1LINWODLINWOD×5AceLindenwood+1.6
75-2LINWODBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.1
85-3BUFFBUFF×3Attack errKylee Richey+1.9
95-4BUFFBUFF×3Attack errSusanna Beretti+2.2
106-4BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+1.6
116-5LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+1.7
127-5BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+1.7
137-6LINWODBUFFKillMaddie Mitchellset Manoela Forlin+1.8
148-6BUFFLINWOD×3KillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+1.7
159-6LINWODLINWOD×3Attack errManoela Forlin+2.1
1610-6LINWODLINWOD×3KillKylee Richeyset Kaci Johnson+1.8
1710-7LINWODBUFF×4BlockedKaci Johnsonblk Hailey Campagna, Nienke Trossel+1.2
1810-8BUFFBUFF×4KillSydney Bellset Anaya Cole+2.1
1910-9BUFFBUFF×4Attack errLauren Ortwerth+2.6
2010-10BUFFBUFF×4BlockedAshley Geluckblk Hailey Campagna, Nienke Trossel+3.1
2111-10BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+2.2
2212-10LINWODLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Dana Grib+2.8
2312-11LINWODBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Sydney Bell+2.1
2413-11BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+2.1
2513-12LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Anaya Cole+2.2
2614-12BUFFLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+2.2
2715-12LINWODLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Dana Grib+2.6
2815-13LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Sydney Bell+1.8
2916-13BUFFLINWODKillKylee Richeyset Kaci Johnson+1.9
3017-13LINWODLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+2.1
3117-14LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+1.3
3218-14BUFFLINWODBlockedManoela Forlinblk Kylee Richey+1.5
3318-15LINWODBUFF×3Attack errLauren Ortwerth+1.3
3418-16BUFFBUFF×3Attack errKylee Richey+2.5
3518-17BUFFBUFF×3KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+3.6
3619-17BUFFLINWODKillKylee Richeyset Kaci Johnson+2.9
3720-17LINWODLINWODAttack errHailey Campagna+3.3
3820-18LINWODBUFF×5KillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+1.9
3920-19BUFFBUFF×5AceBuffaloaced Susanna Beretti+3.9
4020-20BUFFBUFF×5KillHailey Campagnaset Nienke Trossel+5.5
4120-21BUFFBUFF×5BlockedAshley Geluckblk Nienke Trossel+6.9
4220-22BUFFBUFF×5AceBuffaloaced Susanna Beretti+7.5
4321-22BUFFLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+4.1
4421-23LINWODBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+6.4
4522-23BUFFLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+4.3
4622-24LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+7.7
4722-25BUFFBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+6.6
Set 4
10-1BUFFBUFF×3KillNienke Trosselset Kaci Johnson+4.1
20-2BUFFBUFF×3KillNienke Trosselset Maddie Mitchell+4.5
30-3BUFFBUFF×3Attack errKylee Richey+4.8
41-3BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+3.1
51-4LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+3.7
61-5BUFFBUFFAttack errSusanna Beretti+5.1
72-5BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+3.1
82-6LINWODBUFFAttack errAutumn Bax+3.9
92-7BUFFBUFFAttack errLauren Ortwerth+5.1
103-7BUFFLINWODKillKylee Richeyset Greta Shadewald+3.0
114-7LINWODLINWODAttack errManoela Forlin+4.6
124-8LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+4.1
135-8BUFFLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Greta Shadewald+3.3
145-9LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+4.2
156-9BUFFLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+3.4
166-10LINWODBUFFKillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+4.3
177-10BUFFLINWODBlockedSydney Bellblk Susanna Beretti+3.4
187-11LINWODBUFFKillNienke Trosselset Maddie Mitchell+4.4
198-11BUFFLINWODKillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+3.5
209-11LINWODLINWODAceLindenwoodaced Anaya Cole+5.3
219-12LINWODBUFFAttack errSusanna Beretti+4.7
2210-12BUFFLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Dana Grib+3.9
2310-13LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+4.9
2410-14BUFFBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+6.4
2511-14BUFFLINWOD×3Serve errBuffalo+3.7
2612-14LINWODLINWOD×3KillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+5.7
2713-14LINWODLINWOD×3Attack errMaddie Mitchell+6.1
2813-15LINWODBUFFServe errLindenwood+5.3
2914-15BUFFLINWODAttack errAbisola Adebayo+4.5
3014-16LINWODBUFFKillAbisola Adebayoset Maddie Mitchell+5.6
3115-16BUFFLINWOD×3KillAshley Geluckset Kaci Johnson+4.8
3216-16LINWODLINWOD×3KillAutumn Baxset Kaci Johnson+7.0
3317-16LINWODLINWOD×3AceLindenwoodaced Manoela Forlin+6.8
3417-17LINWODBUFFKillNienke Trossel+5.2
3518-17BUFFLINWODKillSusanna Berettiset Kaci Johnson+5.2
3618-18LINWODBUFFKillSydney Bellset Anaya Cole+5.5
3718-19BUFFBUFFAttack errSusanna Beretti+9.0
3819-19BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+6.1
3919-20LINWODBUFF×3KillManoela Forlinset Maddie Mitchell+7.3
4019-21BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+10.7
4119-22BUFFBUFF×3KillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+10.0
4220-22BUFFLINWODServe errBuffalo+4.6
4320-23LINWODBUFFKillSydney Bellset Maddie Mitchell+7.9
4421-23BUFFLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+4.1
4521-24LINWODBUFFAttack errLauren Ortwerth+8.2
4622-24BUFFLINWODKillLauren Ortwerthset Kaci Johnson+3.0
4722-25LINWODBUFFKillHailey Campagnaset Maddie Mitchell+7.8

Score shown after each rally, Lindenwood first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).