FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayOVC

3:0

HomeSOUTHLAND

Lindenwood def. UTRGV 3–0

(25-16, 25-19, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LINWOD	25	25	25	3
UTRGV	16	19	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

UTRGV above 50 · LINWOD below

Biggest swing: 1.9% to UTRGV — set 1, LINWOD 16-14 UTRGV. Kill by Julianna Bryant (set by Lana Rnjak). UTRGV win probability 15% → 17%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LINWOD 78.3%21.7% UTRGV

Lindenwood wins

3-0

29.9%

3-1

29.7%

3-2

18.7%

UTRGV wins

3-0

3.6%

3-1

7.3%

3-2

10.8%

LINWOD break %: 45.0% vs this opp
UTRGV break %: 39.1% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Julianna BryantKill+1.9%
Kill by Julianna Bryant (set by Lana Rnjak)
Set 1 · LINWOD 16-14 UTRGV · UTRGV 15% → 17%
02
LINWOD serverAce+1.7%
Lindenwood ace on Martina Franco
Set 1 · LINWOD 1-0 UTRGV · LINWOD 78% → 80%
03
Kylee RicheyAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Kylee Richey
Set 1 · LINWOD 5-4 UTRGV · UTRGV 18% → 20%
04
Ema PetkovicAttack error+1.7%
Ema Petkovic stuffed by Lauren Ortwerth & Kylee Richey
Set 1 · LINWOD 18-14 UTRGV · LINWOD 84% → 86%
05
Lauren OrtwerthKill+1.6%
Kill by Lauren Ortwerth (set by Kaci Johnson)
Set 1 · LINWOD 8-5 UTRGV · LINWOD 82% → 83%
06
Susanna BerettiKill+1.6%
Kill by Susanna Beretti (set by Kaci Johnson)
Set 1 · LINWOD 2-0 UTRGV · LINWOD 80% → 82%
07
Ashley GeluckAttack error+1.6%
Attack error by Ashley Geluck
Set 1 · LINWOD 9-7 UTRGV · UTRGV 16% → 18%
08
Susanna BerettiKill+1.6%
Kill by Susanna Beretti (set by Kaci Johnson)
Set 1 · LINWOD 17-14 UTRGV · LINWOD 83% → 84%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Lindenwoodaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
17Ashley GeluckMB	3	11	4	24	.292	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	2	14
15Autumn BaxOH	3	12	0	22	.545	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12
13Susanna BerettiOH	3	8	5	19	.158	1	1	0	9	0	0	0	0	9
28Kylee RicheyOH	3	6	4	15	.133	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	8.5
3Kaci JohnsonS	3	1	1	8	.000	38	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	2
27Mandy LawsonL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
7Lauren OrtwerthOH	3	6	2	15	.267	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	6.5
9Dana GribDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	15	0	0	0	0	2
1Alayna RudebeckDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	16	104	.269	41	6	3	48	2	4	2	5	75

UTRGVhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Ema PetkovicOH	3	9	5	26	.154	3	1	3	7	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
25Soukeyna DioufOH	3	9	2	18	.389	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
1Martina FrancoOH	3	7	6	28	.036	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	7
2Aaliyah SneadMB	3	3	1	12	.167	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	2.5	5.5
22Julianna BryantMB	3	4	3	11	.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
10Lana RnjakS	3	0	0	5	.000	25	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
11Sujeili MermellaS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
5Celianiz CabranesL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	1	19	1	0	0	0	0
8Dunja StankovicDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
6Agata MakowskaS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	17	100	.150	31	2	6	39	6	1	8	5	55

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 LINWOD · UTRGV 5

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 5 LINWODUTRGV 2

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 5 LINWODUTRGV 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 LINWODUTRGV 3

Bars above the line = UTRGV leads, below = Lindenwood leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Lindenwood

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%7/7	57%8/14
2	78%7/9	46%6/13
3	64%7/11	30%3/10
4	75%6/8	57%8/14
5	67%6/9	60%9/15
6	42%5/12	38%3/8
All	68%38/56	50%37/74

UTRGV

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%7/14	17%1/6
2	54%7/13	0%0/7
3	54%7/13	22%2/9
4	60%6/10	42%5/12
5	43%6/14	25%2/8
6	40%4/10	57%8/14
All	50%37/74	32%18/56

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

130 rallies

Rally log

#	LINWOD-UTRGV	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	LINWOD	LINWOD	Ace	LINWOD server	aced Martina Franco	+1.7
2	2-0	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+1.6
3	2-1	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Ema Petkovic	+1.2
4	3-1	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+1.2
5	4-1	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+1.5
6	4-2	LINWOD	UTRGV	Serve err	LINWOD server		+1.1
7	5-2	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+1.1
8	5-3	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.1
9	5-4	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Kylee Richey		+1.7
10	6-4	UTRGV	LINWOD	Serve err	UTRGV server		+1.3
11	6-5	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Ema Petkovic	+1.3
12	7-5	UTRGV	LINWOD×3	Kill	Kaci Johnson	set Susanna Beretti	+1.3
13	8-5	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+1.6
14	9-5	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Attack err	Martina Franco		+1.4
15	9-6	LINWOD	UTRGV	Serve err	LINWOD server		+0.9
16	9-7	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Ashley Geluck		+1.6
17	10-7	UTRGV	LINWOD×3	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+1.2
18	11-7	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+1.5
19	12-7	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+1.2
20	12-8	LINWOD	UTRGV	Attack err	Kaci Johnson		+0.7
21	12-9	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Ashley Geluck	blk Aaliyah Snead	+1.3
22	13-9	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+1.1
23	14-9	LINWOD	LINWOD	Attack err	Aaliyah Snead	blk Ashley Geluck	+1.2
24	14-10	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+0.7
25	15-10	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.9
26	15-11	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.7
27	15-12	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Celianiz Cabranes	+1.4
28	16-12	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+1.2
29	16-13	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+1.0
30	16-14	UTRGV	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+1.9
31	17-14	UTRGV	LINWOD×3	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+1.6
32	18-14	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Attack err	Ema Petkovic	blk Lauren Ortwerth, Kylee Richey	+1.7
33	19-14	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Kylee Richey	set Kaci Johnson	+1.2
34	19-15	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.6
35	20-15	UTRGV	LINWOD×5	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.8
36	21-15	LINWOD	LINWOD×5	Attack err	Martina Franco	blk Ashley Geluck	+0.7
37	22-15	LINWOD	LINWOD×5	Ace	LINWOD server	aced Dunja Stankovic	+0.3
38	23-15	LINWOD	LINWOD×5	Attack err	Martina Franco		+0.1
39	24-15	LINWOD	LINWOD×5	Attack err	Martina Franco		+0.0
40	24-16	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.0
41	25-16	UTRGV	LINWOD	Attack err	Julianna Bryant		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+1.0
2	2-0	LINWOD	LINWOD	Ace	LINWOD server	aced Soukeyna Diouf	+1.2
3	2-1	LINWOD	UTRGV	Attack err	Kylee Richey		+0.9
4	3-1	UTRGV	LINWOD×3	Bad set	Ema Petkovic		+0.9
5	4-1	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Kylee Richey	set Kaci Johnson	+1.1
6	5-1	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Attack err	Martina Franco		+1.0
7	5-2	LINWOD	UTRGV	Attack err	Kylee Richey		+0.7
8	6-2	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Kylee Richey	set Kaci Johnson	+0.7
9	7-2	LINWOD	LINWOD	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+0.8
10	7-3	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.6
11	7-4	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Susanna Beretti		+1.0
12	8-4	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.8
13	8-5	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Celianiz Cabranes	+0.7
14	9-5	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.8
15	9-6	LINWOD	UTRGV×3	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.7
16	9-7	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+1.2
17	9-8	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Kill	Aaliyah Snead	set Lana Rnjak	+1.5
18	10-8	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+1.1
19	10-9	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.1
20	11-9	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+1.1
21	12-9	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+1.4
22	12-10	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+1.0
23	13-10	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Kylee Richey	set Kaci Johnson	+1.0
24	13-11	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+1.0
25	14-11	UTRGV	LINWOD×5	Attack err	Ema Petkovic	blk Kylee Richey	+1.1
26	15-11	LINWOD	LINWOD×5	Attack err	Julianna Bryant	blk Kylee Richey	+1.2
27	16-11	LINWOD	LINWOD×5	Attack err	Julianna Bryant		+0.9
28	17-11	LINWOD	LINWOD×5	Bad set	Lana Rnjak		+0.7
29	18-11	LINWOD	LINWOD×5	Ace	LINWOD server	aced Dunja Stankovic	+0.4
30	18-12	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
31	19-12	UTRGV	LINWOD	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.3
32	20-12	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
33	20-13	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.1
34	20-14	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Ashley Geluck	blk Soukeyna Diouf, Julianna Bryant	+0.2
35	21-14	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
36	21-15	LINWOD	UTRGV×5	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.1
37	21-16	UTRGV	UTRGV×5	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
38	21-17	UTRGV	UTRGV×5	Attack err	Ashley Geluck		+0.5
39	21-18	UTRGV	UTRGV×5	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Lauren Ortwerth	+0.9
40	21-19	UTRGV	UTRGV×5	Attack err	Lauren Ortwerth		+1.5
41	22-19	UTRGV	LINWOD×4	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+1.5
42	23-19	LINWOD	LINWOD×4	Attack err	Soukeyna Diouf		+1.3
43	24-19	LINWOD	LINWOD×4	Attack err	Soukeyna Diouf		+0.5
44	25-19	LINWOD	LINWOD×4	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Lana Rnjak	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.7
2	2-0	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.6
3	2-1	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Lana Rnjak	+0.5
4	3-1	UTRGV	LINWOD×3	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.5
5	4-1	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+0.6
6	5-1	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Mandy Lawson	+0.5
7	5-2	LINWOD	UTRGV	Attack err	Susanna Beretti	blk Aaliyah Snead, Ema Petkovic	+0.3
8	6-2	UTRGV	LINWOD	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.4
9	6-3	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
10	7-3	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Kylee Richey	set Kaci Johnson	+0.4
11	8-3	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Kylee Richey	set Kaci Johnson	+0.4
12	8-4	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
13	8-5	UTRGV	UTRGV	Ace	UTRGV server	aced Team	+0.5
14	9-5	UTRGV	LINWOD	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.4
15	9-6	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Julianna Bryant	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
16	10-6	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.4
17	10-7	LINWOD	UTRGV	Attack err	Lauren Ortwerth		+0.4
18	11-7	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Ashley Geluck	set Kaci Johnson	+0.4
19	11-8	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Ema Petkovic	+0.4
20	12-8	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.4
21	12-9	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.4
22	12-10	UTRGV	UTRGV	Attack err	Susanna Beretti	blk Aaliyah Snead, Ema Petkovic	+0.7
23	13-10	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.5
24	13-11	LINWOD	UTRGV	Attack err	Susanna Beretti	blk Aaliyah Snead, Ema Petkovic	+0.5
25	14-11	UTRGV	LINWOD	Attack err	Martina Franco		+0.6
26	14-12	LINWOD	UTRGV	Bad set	Susanna Beretti		+0.5
27	15-12	UTRGV	LINWOD×3	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.6
28	16-12	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Kill	Lauren Ortwerth	set Kaci Johnson	+0.6
29	17-12	LINWOD	LINWOD×3	Ace	LINWOD server	aced Team	+0.5
30	17-13	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Martina Franco	set Lana Rnjak	+0.3
31	17-14	UTRGV	UTRGV	Bad set	Kaci Johnson		+0.5
32	18-14	UTRGV	LINWOD	Attack err	Ema Petkovic		+0.5
33	19-14	LINWOD	LINWOD	Ace	LINWOD server	aced Celianiz Cabranes	+0.5
34	19-15	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.2
35	20-15	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Dana Grib	+0.3
36	20-16	LINWOD	UTRGV	Serve err	LINWOD server		+0.2
37	21-16	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.3
38	22-16	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Autumn Bax	set Kaci Johnson	+0.2
39	22-17	LINWOD	UTRGV	Kill	Soukeyna Diouf	set Lana Rnjak	+0.1
40	23-17	UTRGV	LINWOD	Serve err	UTRGV server		+0.1
41	24-17	LINWOD	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti		+0.1
42	24-18	LINWOD	UTRGV×3	Kill	Ema Petkovic	set Dunja Stankovic	+0.0
43	24-19	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Attack err	Susanna Beretti		+0.0
44	24-20	UTRGV	UTRGV×3	Attack err	Kylee Richey		+0.1
45	25-20	UTRGV	LINWOD	Kill	Susanna Beretti	set Kaci Johnson	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Lindenwood first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.