Final · 4 setsThu, Oct 1, 2026

Western Caro. def. Samford 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Samford 67.4% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Western Caro. beat visiting Samford 3-1 (25-18, 25-15, 20-25, 25-15) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. Western Caro.'s Zoe Zudans led with 14 kills, and Samantha Kranzler added 17 digs.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set1234Sets
SAMFRD181525151
W CAR252520253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Western Caro. held Samford to .060 hitting.

The biggest single-rally swing was 4.6 points, and Samford's high was 69% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, Samford was RallyIQ's 67% pick.

SamfordWestern Caro.
  • Break %+15.1 pts
    33.848.9

    46 of 94 on serve vs 25 of 74, so Samford's sideout was 51.1%.

  • Hitting+.136
    .060.196

    Kills and errors: 51–19 vs 38–29.

  • Longest run+2
    46

    Up 17–11 in the fourth set, Western Caro. scored 6 straight to make it 23–11. Final score of the set: 25–15.

Western Caro. above 50Samford belowMax swing 4.6%

SamfordWestern Caro.

Aces
Samford 3·Western Caro. 5
Serve err
Samford 8·Western Caro. 12
Blocks
Samford 9·Western Caro. 94 BS · 10 BA vs 2 BS · 14 BA
Digs
Samford 74·Western Caro. 75

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Western Caro. above 50 · Samford below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.6% W CARrally 168 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.6% to Western Caro. — set 4, SAMFRD 8-12 W CAR. Attack error by Janie Stinchcomb. W CAR win probability 80% → 85%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

SAMFRD 57.6%42.4% W CAR

Samford wins

3-0
16.0%
3-1
21.9%
3-2
19.7%

Western Caro. wins

3-0
9.6%
3-1
15.6%
3-2
17.2%
SAMFRD break %
43.1% vs this opp
W CAR break %
41.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Janie StinchcombAttack error+4.6%

    Attack error by Janie Stinchcomb

    Set 4 · SAMFRD 8-12 W CAR · W CAR 80% → 85%

  2. 02
    Amyra BurchikAttack error+4.5%

    Attack error by Amyra Burchik

    Set 4 · SAMFRD 5-8 W CAR · W CAR 74% → 79%

  3. 03

    Amyra Burchik stuffed by Ashlyn Cobb & Tatum Sharp

    Set 4 · SAMFRD 4-6 W CAR · W CAR 69% → 74%

  4. 04

    Kill by Samantha Kranzler (set by Katie Boney)

    Set 4 · SAMFRD 5-9 W CAR · W CAR 79% → 83%

  5. 05
    Ally CordesKill+4.2%

    Kill by Ally Cordes (set by Alison Ohlinger)

    Set 4 · SAMFRD 8-10 W CAR · SAMFRD 19% → 23%

  6. 06
    Zoe ZudansKill+4.2%

    Kill by Zoe Zudans (set by Katie Boney)

    Set 4 · SAMFRD 10-15 W CAR · W CAR 86% → 90%

  7. 07
    Ally CordesAttack error+4.1%

    Attack error by Ally Cordes

    Set 4 · SAMFRD 8-13 W CAR · W CAR 85% → 89%

  8. 08
    JoJo AbeytaKill+4.0%

    Kill by JoJo Abeyta

    Set 4 · SAMFRD 0-2 W CAR · W CAR 69% → 73%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410647.08500114030313
48115.46700000052.510.5
47936-.0560103012210
46112.417000000006
43519-.1051111600004
4025-.40033021300211
4000–1122130001
4000–200500000
3000–002100000
24517-.05900010010.54.5
Team totals3829151.0603738745410973
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413436.25021213004216
414355.2000003000014
48113.538382214012212
48327.185403171010.58.5
45214.214002101227
3228.000000000002
4000–121800002
4000–3021500000
3000–000300000
2136-.33300000052.53.5
1014-.250000000000
1000–000100000
Team totals5119163.19648512753214995

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Samford vs Western Caro.

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 SAMFRD · W CAR 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 SAMFRDW CAR 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 SAMFRDW CAR 5

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 SAMFRDW CAR 4

Set 4

15-25

Longest run 4 SAMFRDW CAR 6

Bars above the line = Western Caro. leads, below = Samford leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Samford

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%10/20
40%6/15
2
47%9/19
38%6/16
3
57%8/14
27%3/11
4
70%7/10
33%4/12
5
58%7/12
22%2/9
6
37%7/19
36%4/11
All
51%48/94
34%25/74

Western Caro.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
53%10/19
2
67%8/12
53%10/19
3
80%8/10
47%7/15
4
62%8/13
43%6/14
5
70%7/10
42%5/12
6
58%7/12
53%8/15
All
66%49/74
49%46/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

168 rallies

#SAMFRD-W CARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0W CARSAMFRDKillJanie Stinchcombset Alison Ohlinger+1.6
21-1SAMFRDW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.7
32-1W CARSAMFRDKillMaggie Kaliszset Alison Ohlinger+1.6
42-2SAMFRDW CARKillSamantha Kranzlerset Katie Boney+1.7
53-2W CARSAMFRDKillHazel Slusherset Katelyn Stooksbury+1.7
63-3SAMFRDW CARKillSamantha Kranzlerset Katie Boney+1.7
73-4W CARW CARAceWestern Caro.+2.5
84-4W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+1.8
94-5SAMFRDW CAR×3KillSamantha Kranzlerset Elise Gurley+1.9
104-6W CARW CAR×3KillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+2.6
114-7W CARW CAR×3Attack errBrianna Hamilton+2.7
125-7W CARSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+1.8
135-8SAMFRDW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.0
145-9W CARW CARAttack errMaggie Kalisz+2.6
156-9W CARSAMFRDKillMaggie Kaliszset Alison Ohlinger+1.7
167-9SAMFRDSAMFRDBlockedZoe Zudansblk Maggie Kalisz+2.5
177-10SAMFRDW CAR×4KillKatie Boneyset Ashlyn Cobb+2.2
187-11W CARW CAR×4Attack errMaggie Kalisz+2.7
197-12W CARW CAR×4AceWestern Caro.aced Brooklyn Drumwright+2.5
207-13W CARW CAR×4KillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+2.1
218-13W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+1.2
228-14SAMFRDW CAR×3KillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+1.6
238-15W CARW CAR×3KillBrookelyn Nanceset Katie Boney+1.7
248-16W CARW CAR×3AceWestern Caro.+1.2
259-16W CARSAMFRD×3KillMaggie Kaliszset Alison Ohlinger+0.6
2610-16SAMFRDSAMFRD×3AceSamford+1.1
2711-16SAMFRDSAMFRD×3Attack errBrookelyn Nance+1.4
2811-17SAMFRDW CARBad setAlison Ohlinger+1.5
2912-17W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+1.0
3013-17SAMFRDSAMFRDAceSamfordaced Samantha Kranzler+1.9
3113-18SAMFRDW CARServe errSamford+1.9
3214-18W CARSAMFRDKillHazel Slusherset Alison Ohlinger+1.3
3314-19SAMFRDW CARServe errSamford+1.9
3414-20W CARW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+1.8
3515-20W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+0.8
3615-21SAMFRDW CAR×3KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.2
3715-22W CARW CAR×3Attack errAlison Ohlinger+0.9
3815-23W CARW CAR×3KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.4
3916-23W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+0.1
4017-23SAMFRDSAMFRDKillJanie Stinchcombset Alison Ohlinger+0.2
4117-24SAMFRDW CARKillKatie Boneyset Elise Gurley+0.3
4218-24W CARSAMFRDKillMaggie Kaliszset Alison Ohlinger+0.1
4318-25SAMFRDW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.1
Set 2
10-1SAMFRDW CARKillKatie Boneyset Samantha Kranzler+2.1
20-2W CARW CARKillKatie Boneyset Katie Boney+2.9
31-2W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+2.1
41-3SAMFRDW CAR×3Attack errMaggie Kalisz+2.3
51-4W CARW CAR×3KillZoe Zudansset Samantha Kranzler+3.0
61-5W CARW CAR×3KillZoe Zudansset Elise Gurley+3.0
72-5W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+1.9
82-6SAMFRDW CARAttack errHazel Slusher+2.3
93-6W CARSAMFRDAttack errSamantha Kranzler+2.0
103-7SAMFRDW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+2.3
114-7W CARSAMFRDBlockedSamantha Kranzlerblk Alison Ohlinger, Hazel Slusher+2.0
124-8SAMFRDW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+2.4
135-8W CARSAMFRDBlockedKatie Boneyblk Ally Cordes+2.0
145-9SAMFRDW CAR×5Serve errSamford+2.4
155-10W CARW CAR×5Attack errMaggie Kalisz+2.9
165-11W CARW CAR×5KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+2.6
175-12W CARW CAR×5Attack errMaggie Kalisz+2.2
185-13W CARW CAR×5BlockedAlly Cordesblk Katie Boney+1.7
196-13W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+0.9
206-14SAMFRDW CARBlockedBrianna Hamiltonblk Katie Boney, Tatum Sharp+1.2
217-14W CARSAMFRDKillJanie Stinchcombset Alison Ohlinger+0.8
228-14SAMFRDSAMFRDKillMaggie Kaliszset Alison Ohlinger+1.5
238-15SAMFRDW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.5
248-16W CARW CARAceWestern Caro.aced Brooklyn Drumwright+1.5
259-16W CARSAMFRDKillHazel Slusherset Alison Ohlinger+0.7
269-17SAMFRDW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.0
2710-17W CARSAMFRDKillBrianna Hamiltonset Alison Ohlinger+0.6
2810-18SAMFRDW CARKillBrookelyn Nanceset Katie Boney+1.0
2911-18W CARSAMFRDAttack errSamantha Kranzler+0.5
3011-19SAMFRDW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+0.9
3112-19W CARSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+0.5
3213-19SAMFRDSAMFRDBad setKatie Boney+0.9
3313-20SAMFRDW CAR×3KillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+1.1
3413-21W CARW CAR×3BlockedMaggie Kaliszblk Tatum Sharp+0.8
3513-22W CARW CAR×3Bad setAlison Ohlinger+0.4
3614-22W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+0.1
3715-22SAMFRDSAMFRDKillJanie Stinchcombset Alison Ohlinger+0.2
3815-23SAMFRDW CAR×3KillKatie Boneyset Samantha Kranzler+0.3
3915-24W CARW CAR×3KillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+0.1
4015-25W CARW CAR×3Attack errBrianna Hamilton·
Set 3
10-1W CARW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+2.3
21-1W CARSAMFRDKillBrianna Hamiltonset Alison Ohlinger+1.6
32-1SAMFRDSAMFRDAceSamford+2.2
42-2SAMFRDW CARServe errSamford+1.7
52-3W CARW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+2.4
63-3W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+1.7
73-4SAMFRDW CARKillSamantha Kranzlerset Katie Boney+1.8
84-4W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+1.7
94-5SAMFRDW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+1.9
105-5W CARSAMFRDKillHazel Slusherset Alison Ohlinger+1.8
116-5SAMFRDSAMFRDKillJanie Stinchcombset Alison Ohlinger+2.4
126-6SAMFRDW CARServe errSamford+1.8
137-6W CARSAMFRDKillAmyra Burchikset Alison Ohlinger+1.8
148-6SAMFRDSAMFRDAttack errTatum Sharp+2.4
158-7SAMFRDW CARServe errSamford+1.7
169-7W CARSAMFRDAttack errAshlyn Cobb+1.8
1710-7SAMFRDSAMFRDAttack errBrookelyn Nance+2.2
1810-8SAMFRDW CARKillSamantha Kranzlerset Katie Boney+1.6
1911-8W CARSAMFRD×4KillBrianna Hamiltonset Alison Ohlinger+1.7
2012-8SAMFRDSAMFRD×4KillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+2.0
2113-8SAMFRDSAMFRD×4BlockedAshlyn Cobbblk Maggie Kalisz, Hazel Slusher+1.6
2214-8SAMFRDSAMFRD×4BlockedAshlyn Cobbblk Maggie Kalisz, Hazel Slusher+1.3
2314-9SAMFRDW CARKillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.7
2415-9W CARSAMFRDKillMaggie Kaliszset Alison Ohlinger+0.9
2515-10SAMFRDW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+0.7
2615-11W CARW CARAttack errBrianna Hamilton+1.3
2716-11W CARSAMFRDKillHazel Slusherset Alison Ohlinger+1.2
2816-12SAMFRDW CARKillSamantha Kranzlerset Katie Boney+1.0
2917-12W CARSAMFRDServe errWestern Caro.+1.2
3018-12SAMFRDSAMFRDAttack errTatum Sharp+1.2
3118-13SAMFRDW CARAttack errAmyra Burchik+0.6
3219-13W CARSAMFRD×3Attack errZoe Zudans+0.8
3320-13SAMFRDSAMFRD×3KillMaggie Kaliszset Alison Ohlinger+0.7
3421-13SAMFRDSAMFRD×3KillAmyra Burchikset Brooklyn Drumwright+0.3
3521-14SAMFRDW CAR×4KillKatie Boneyset Samantha Kranzler+0.1
3621-15W CARW CAR×4BlockedMaggie Kaliszblk JoJo Abeyta, Katie Boney+0.3
3721-16W CARW CAR×4KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+0.5
3821-17W CARW CAR×4Attack errAmyra Burchik+0.9
3922-17W CARSAMFRDAttack errZoe Zudans+1.1
4023-17SAMFRDSAMFRDBlockedJoJo Abeytablk Ally Cordes+0.7
4123-18SAMFRDW CARAttack errMaggie Kalisz+0.2
4224-18W CARSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+0.4
4324-19SAMFRDW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+0.1
4424-20W CARW CARBlockedMaggie Kaliszblk JoJo Abeyta, Samantha Kranzler+0.2
4525-20W CARSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+0.4
Set 4
10-1SAMFRDW CARKillKatie Boneyset Ashlyn Cobb+2.9
20-2W CARW CARKillJoJo Abeyta+4.0
31-2W CARSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+2.8
41-3SAMFRDW CARKillKatie Boneyset Katie Boney+3.1
52-3W CARSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Brianna Hamilton+2.8
63-3SAMFRDSAMFRDAttack errJoJo Abeyta+3.9
73-4SAMFRDW CARKillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+3.1
84-4W CARSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+3.0
94-5SAMFRDW CARKillSamantha Kranzlerset Eda Yalçinkaya+3.2
104-6W CARW CARBlockedAmyra Burchikblk Ashlyn Cobb, Tatum Sharp+4.4
115-6W CARSAMFRDKillHazel Slusherset Alison Ohlinger+3.0
125-7SAMFRDW CAR×3KillAshlyn Cobbset Katie Boney+3.4
135-8W CARW CAR×3Attack errAmyra Burchik+4.5
145-9W CARW CAR×3KillSamantha Kranzlerset Katie Boney+4.3
156-9W CARSAMFRDKillAmyra Burchikset Katelyn Stooksbury+2.8
166-10SAMFRDW CARKillTatum Sharpset Katie Boney+3.3
177-10W CARSAMFRDKillJanie Stinchcombset Alison Ohlinger+2.8
188-10SAMFRDSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+4.2
198-11SAMFRDW CAR×3KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+3.7
208-12W CARW CAR×3Attack errJanie Stinchcomb+4.6
218-13W CARW CAR×3Attack errAlly Cordes+4.1
229-13W CARSAMFRDKillAlly Cordesset Alison Ohlinger+2.4
2310-13SAMFRDSAMFRDBlockedJoJo Abeytablk Ally Cordes+3.9
2410-14SAMFRDW CAR×4Serve errSamford+3.6
2510-15W CARW CAR×4KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+4.2
2610-16W CARW CAR×4BlockedAlly Cordesblk Ashlyn Cobb, JoJo Abeyta+3.4
2710-17W CARW CAR×4Attack errBrianna Hamilton+2.5
2811-17W CARSAMFRDKillHazel Slusherset Alison Ohlinger+1.2
2911-18SAMFRDW CAR×6KillZoe Zudansset Katie Boney+1.8
3011-19W CARW CAR×6Attack errAlly Cordes+1.6
3111-20W CARW CAR×6BlockedAlly Cordesblk Ashlyn Cobb, JoJo Abeyta+0.9
3211-21W CARW CAR×6AceWestern Caro.aced Brooklyn Drumwright+0.4
3311-22W CARW CAR×6BlockedAlly Cordesblk Ashlyn Cobb, JoJo Abeyta+0.2
3411-23W CARW CAR×6Attack errAlison Ohlinger·
3512-23W CARSAMFRD×4KillHazel Slusherset Alison Ohlinger·
3613-23SAMFRDSAMFRD×4BlockedAshlyn Cobbblk Amyra Burchik, Hazel Slusher·
3714-23SAMFRDSAMFRD×4BlockedTaylor Baggettblk Alison Ohlinger, Hazel Slusher·
3815-23SAMFRDSAMFRD×4KillAmyra Burchikset Alison Ohlinger+0.1
3915-24SAMFRDW CARServe errSamford+0.1
4015-25W CARW CARAttack errAmyra Burchik·

Score shown after each rally, Samford first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).