Final · 4 setsFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

1:3

HomeATLANTIC-10

George Mason def. Northwestern 3–1

(25-23, 28-26, 18-25, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
NW	23	26	25	23	1
GMU	25	28	18	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

GMU above 50 · NW below

Biggest swing: 21.7% to George Mason — set 4, NW 23-25 GMU. Kill by Camryn Weldon (set by Ellie Stiernagle). GMU win probability 78% → 100%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

NW 80.6%19.4% GMU

Northwestern wins

3-0

32.1%

3-1

30.4%

3-2

18.1%

George Mason wins

3-0

3.1%

3-1

6.4%

3-2

9.9%

NW break %: 42.8% vs this opp
GMU break %: 36.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Camryn WeldonKill+21.7%
Kill by Camryn Weldon (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 4 · NW 23-25 GMU · GMU 78% → 100%
02
Isabella BullingtonAttack error+18.4%
Attack error by Isabella Bullington
Set 4 · NW 23-24 GMU · GMU 60% → 78%
03
GMU serverAce+14.9%
George Mason ace on Drew Wright
Set 2 · NW 26-28 GMU · GMU 55% → 70%
04
GMU serverAce+12.7%
George Mason ace on Isabella Bullington
Set 2 · NW 26-27 GMU · GMU 42% → 55%
05
Isabella BullingtonAttack error+12.4%
Isabella Bullington stuffed by Gabriella Gelfound & Meredith Brown
Set 4 · NW 23-23 GMU · GMU 47% → 60%
06
Caroline RodriguezAttack error+11.4%
Attack error by Caroline Rodriguez
Set 2 · NW 26-25 GMU · NW 54% → 65%
07
Nia ThompsonKill+8.5%
Kill by Nia Thompson (set by Camryn Weldon)
Set 2 · NW 23-24 GMU · GMU 46% → 55%
08
Isabella BullingtonKill+8.5%
Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)
Set 2 · NW 24-24 GMU · NW 45% → 54%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Northwesternaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
12Mara StiglicOH	4	17	4	38	.342	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	2	19
22Isabella BullingtonOH	4	13	6	35	.200	1	2	4	11	4	0	0	0	15
25Campbell ParisOH	4	12	5	30	.233	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
17Maya StillwellMB	4	4	0	7	.571	1	0	2	0	0	1	2	2	6
11Ellie StiernagleS	4	1	2	3	-.333	38	0	3	10	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
4Kayla KauffmanMB	2	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
2Drew WrightL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	4	1	2	8	1	0	0	0	1
23Gigi NavarreteL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
7Lauren DignanL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	13	0	0	0	0	0
9Hayley SchaafMB	2	2	2	6	.000	0	2	1	2	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
24Cate SchnellOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		49	21	125	.224	46	5	14	56	5	2	8	6	97

George Masonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Kiera HamiltonOH	4	15	7	46	.174	0	1	2	9	1	0	1	0.5	16.5
11Nia ThompsonOH	4	13	3	29	.345	0	1	4	10	3	0	1	0.5	14.5
13Camryn WeldonS	4	8	0	12	.667	38	1	2	5	0	0	1	0.5	9.5
20Meredith BrownMB	4	4	2	12	.167	1	0	0	0	0	3	4	5	9
4Caroline RodriguezOH	4	6	6	18	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
10Jenna HuntMB	4	6	2	14	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
18Autumn Martinez-RobinsonL/DS	4	0	1	1	-1.000	4	2	7	20	0	0	0	0	2
9Avery BookerOH	4	0	0	2	.000	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
19Alexa StutzmanL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
15Gabriella GelfoundOPP	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
12Ava CheneyS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		54	21	137	.241	45	5	21	49	5	3	10	8	96

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 NW · GMU 4

Set 1

23-25

Longest run 3 NWGMU 3

Set 2

26-28

Longest run 2 NWGMU 4

Set 3

25-18

Longest run 4 NWGMU 3

Set 4

23-25

Longest run 3 NWGMU 4

Bars above the line = George Mason leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Northwestern

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	87%13/15	39%7/18
2	69%11/16	33%6/18
3	73%11/15	45%9/20
4	65%11/17	31%5/16
5	50%9/18	21%3/14
6	64%9/14	25%3/12
All	67%64/95	34%33/98

George Mason

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	68%13/19	21%3/14
2	58%11/19	29%5/17
3	61%11/18	27%4/15
4	73%11/15	35%6/17
5	71%10/14	47%9/19
6	69%9/13	31%4/13
All	66%65/98	33%31/95

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

193 rallies

Rally log

#	NW-GMU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	NW	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+1.3
2	1-1	GMU	NW	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+1.2
3	1-2	NW	GMU×3	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+1.3
4	1-3	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+2.1
5	1-4	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+2.2
6	2-4	GMU	NW	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+1.3
7	3-4	NW	NW	Ace	NW server	aced Team	+2.0
8	3-5	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+1.5
9	4-5	GMU	NW	Bad set	Camryn Weldon		+1.3
10	5-5	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Camryn Weldon	+2.1
11	5-6	NW	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+1.5
12	5-7	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+2.4
13	6-7	GMU	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.4
14	7-7	NW	NW×3	Ace	NW server	aced Nia Thompson	+2.2
15	8-7	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.1
16	8-8	NW	GMU	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+1.4
17	9-8	GMU	NW	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+1.4
18	9-9	NW	GMU×3	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+1.5
19	9-10	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Isabella Bullington	+2.5
20	9-11	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+2.7
21	10-11	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
22	10-12	NW	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+1.9
23	11-12	GMU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
24	11-13	NW	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+2.0
25	12-13	GMU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.7
26	12-14	NW	GMU	Attack err	Isabella Bullington	blk Meredith Brown, Camryn Weldon	+2.0
27	13-14	GMU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Lauren Dignan	+1.8
28	14-14	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.9
29	14-15	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+2.1
30	15-15	GMU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.9
31	15-16	NW	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+2.2
32	15-17	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+3.5
33	16-17	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.0
34	16-18	NW	GMU	Kill	Camryn Weldon		+2.5
35	17-18	GMU	NW	Attack err	Jenna Hunt	blk Mara Stiglic	+2.1
36	18-18	NW	NW	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+3.6
37	18-19	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+2.7
38	19-19	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.5
39	19-20	NW	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+3.0
40	20-20	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.7
41	21-20	NW	NW	Attack err	Meredith Brown		+4.4
42	21-21	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+2.9
43	21-22	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Campbell Paris	blk Nia Thompson, Meredith Brown	+5.6
44	22-22	GMU	NW	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+3.4
45	22-23	NW	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+4.4
46	22-24	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Kayla Kauffman		+7.0
47	23-24	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.3
48	23-25	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+6.5
Set 2
1	1-0	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+1.7
2	1-1	NW	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+1.8
3	2-1	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.7
4	3-1	NW	NW	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+2.5
5	3-2	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+1.7
6	4-2	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+1.6
7	5-2	NW	NW	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+2.3
8	5-3	NW	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+1.4
9	6-3	GMU	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.5
10	6-4	NW	GMU×4	Serve err	NW server		+1.5
11	6-5	GMU	GMU×4	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+2.6
12	6-6	GMU	GMU×4	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+3.1
13	6-7	GMU	GMU×4	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+3.5
14	7-7	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.2
15	7-8	NW	GMU	Kill	Camryn Weldon		+2.4
16	8-8	GMU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.2
17	9-8	NW	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.4
18	9-9	NW	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+2.3
19	10-9	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.2
20	10-10	NW	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+2.4
21	10-11	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Ellie Stiernagle	blk Meredith Brown	+4.0
22	11-11	GMU	NW	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Maya Stillwell, Mara Stiglic	+2.5
23	12-11	NW	NW	Attack err	Meredith Brown	blk Maya Stillwell	+3.8
24	12-12	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+2.6
25	13-12	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.5
26	13-13	NW	GMU	Kill	Camryn Weldon		+2.7
27	13-14	GMU	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+4.6
28	14-14	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.8
29	14-15	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+3.2
30	15-15	GMU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Isabella Bullington	+3.0
31	15-16	NW	GMU×3	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+3.4
32	15-17	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+5.5
33	15-18	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Kayla Kauffman		+5.4
34	16-18	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.7
35	17-18	NW	NW	Attack err	Jenna Hunt		+5.1
36	17-19	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+4.2
37	18-19	GMU	NW	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Kayla Kauffman, Mara Stiglic	+3.4
38	18-20	NW	GMU	Kill	Camryn Weldon	set Camryn Weldon	+4.5
39	19-20	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+3.6
40	19-21	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+4.9
41	20-21	GMU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.7
42	21-21	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington		+7.3
43	21-22	NW	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+5.8
44	22-22	GMU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Drew Wright	+5.2
45	22-23	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+6.9
46	23-23	GMU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+6.2
47	23-24	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+8.5
48	24-24	GMU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+8.5
49	24-25	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+8.5
50	25-25	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+8.5
51	26-25	NW	NW	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+11.4
52	26-26	NW	GMU×3	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+7.2
53	26-27	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Isabella Bullington	+12.7
54	26-28	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Drew Wright	+14.9
Set 3
1	1-0	NW	NW	Ace	NW server	aced Nia Thompson	+2.7
2	1-1	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+1.8
3	2-1	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+1.8
4	2-2	NW	GMU	Attack err	Mara Stiglic		+1.9
5	3-2	GMU	NW×4	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.8
6	4-2	NW	NW×4	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+2.6
7	5-2	NW	NW×4	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.3
8	6-2	NW	NW×4	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.9
9	6-3	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+1.2
10	7-3	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3
11	8-3	NW	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Maya Stillwell	+1.6
12	8-4	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.9
13	9-4	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+1.0
14	9-5	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+0.9
15	9-6	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+1.8
16	10-6	GMU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.3
17	11-6	NW	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.7
18	11-7	NW	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.9
19	11-8	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf		+1.9
20	12-8	GMU	NW	Kill	Ellie Stiernagle		+1.4
21	13-8	NW	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Drew Wright	+1.7
22	13-9	NW	GMU×3	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.9
23	13-10	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Ellie Stiernagle	blk Kiera Hamilton, Meredith Brown	+1.9
24	13-11	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Meredith Brown	+2.6
25	14-11	GMU	NW×3	Serve err	GMU server		+1.9
26	15-11	NW	NW×3	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.3
27	16-11	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Autumn Martinez-Robinson		+1.7
28	16-12	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+0.9
29	17-12	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+1.1
30	17-13	NW	GMU	Attack err	Mara Stiglic	blk Meredith Brown	+0.8
31	17-14	GMU	GMU	Ace	GMU server	aced Isabella Bullington	+1.9
32	18-14	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+1.6
33	18-15	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+1.2
34	19-15	GMU	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
35	19-16	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+1.2
36	20-16	GMU	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
37	20-17	NW	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.1
38	21-17	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+1.6
39	22-17	NW	NW	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+1.4
40	22-18	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+0.4
41	23-18	GMU	NW×3	Serve err	GMU server		+0.8
42	24-18	NW	NW×3	Ace	NW server	aced Kiera Hamilton	+0.4
43	25-18	NW	NW×3	Ace	NW server	aced Nia Thompson	+0.1
Set 4
1	1-0	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.5
2	1-1	NW	GMU	Kill	Camryn Weldon	set Isabella Bullington	+2.7
3	2-1	GMU	NW×3	Serve err	GMU server		+2.5
4	3-1	NW	NW×3	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.6
5	4-1	NW	NW×3	Attack err	Nia Thompson	blk Maya Stillwell, Campbell Paris	+3.2
6	4-2	NW	GMU	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+2.0
7	4-3	GMU	GMU	Ace	GMU server	aced Isabella Bullington	+3.7
8	5-3	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Campbell Paris	+2.4
9	5-4	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+2.5
10	6-4	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.5
11	6-5	NW	GMU	Attack err	Isabella Bullington	blk Jenna Hunt, Caroline Rodriguez	+2.6
12	6-6	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Hayley Schaaf	blk Meredith Brown	+4.5
13	7-6	GMU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.9
14	7-7	NW	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+3.1
15	8-7	GMU	NW	Kill	Hayley Schaaf	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.0
16	8-8	NW	GMU	Serve err	NW server		+3.2
17	9-8	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.1
18	9-9	NW	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+3.3
19	10-9	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Drew Wright	+3.2
20	10-10	NW	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+3.5
21	10-11	GMU	GMU	Bad set	Ellie Stiernagle		+5.9
22	11-11	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.6
23	11-12	NW	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+4.1
24	11-13	GMU	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Caroline Rodriguez	+6.6
25	12-13	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+3.8
26	13-13	NW	NW	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+6.2
27	13-14	NW	GMU	Kill	Gabriella Gelfound	set Camryn Weldon	+4.5
28	14-14	GMU	NW×3	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+4.1
29	15-14	NW	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+6.3
30	16-14	NW	NW×3	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Drew Wright	+5.7
31	16-15	NW	GMU	Kill	Gabriella Gelfound	set Camryn Weldon	+3.6
32	17-15	GMU	NW	Kill	Isabella Bullington	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.8
33	18-15	NW	NW	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton	blk Ellie Stiernagle, Hayley Schaaf	+4.9
34	18-16	NW	GMU	Kill	Camryn Weldon		+2.7
35	19-16	GMU	NW	Kill	Mara Stiglic	set Ellie Stiernagle	+3.3
36	20-16	NW	NW	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+3.6
37	20-17	NW	GMU	Kill	Camryn Weldon	set Ellie Stiernagle	+1.6
38	21-17	GMU	NW	Serve err	GMU server		+2.3
39	21-18	NW	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Ava Cheney	+1.5
40	22-18	GMU	NW	Kill	Maya Stillwell	set Ellie Stiernagle	+2.2
41	22-19	NW	GMU×3	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+1.3
42	22-20	GMU	GMU×3	Bad set	Ellie Stiernagle		+3.7
43	22-21	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Campbell Paris		+6.6
44	23-21	GMU	NW	Kill	Campbell Paris	set Ellie Stiernagle	+6.2
45	23-22	NW	GMU×4	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Camryn Weldon	+4.4
46	23-23	GMU	GMU×4	Attack err	Isabella Bullington	blk Gabriella Gelfound, Meredith Brown	+12.4
47	23-24	GMU	GMU×4	Attack err	Isabella Bullington		+18.4
48	23-25	GMU	GMU×4	Kill	Camryn Weldon	set Ellie Stiernagle	+21.7

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.