FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayCAA

0:3

HomeATLANTIC-10

George Mason def. Hampton 3–0

(25-16, 25-17, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
HAMPTN	16	17	21	0
GMU	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

GMU above 50 · HAMPTN below

Biggest swing: 0.5% to Hampton — set 1, HAMPTN 2-2 GMU. Kill by Nikola Jaroszewicz (set by Ana Luiza Matos). GMU win probability 96% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HAMPTN 4.2%95.8% GMU

Hampton wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.1%

3-2

2.6%

George Mason wins

3-0

58.0%

3-1

28.9%

3-2

9.0%

HAMPTN break %: 36.0% vs this opp
GMU break %: 49.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Nikola JaroszewiczKill+0.5%
Kill by Nikola Jaroszewicz (set by Ana Luiza Matos)
Set 1 · HAMPTN 2-2 GMU · HAMPTN 4% → 4%
02
Caroline RodriguezKill+0.5%
Kill by Caroline Rodriguez (set by Camryn Weldon)
Set 1 · HAMPTN 0-1 GMU · GMU 96% → 96%
03
Nikola JaroszewiczAttack error+0.4%
Nikola Jaroszewicz stuffed by Jenna Hunt & Rylee Kinnell
Set 1 · HAMPTN 2-4 GMU · GMU 96% → 97%
04
Racquel FrazierAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Racquel Frazier
Set 1 · HAMPTN 0-2 GMU · GMU 96% → 97%
05
Caroline RodriguezKill+0.4%
Kill by Caroline Rodriguez (set by Camryn Weldon)
Set 1 · HAMPTN 3-6 GMU · GMU 97% → 97%
06
Nia ThompsonKill+0.4%
Kill by Nia Thompson (set by Camryn Weldon)
Set 1 · HAMPTN 2-3 GMU · GMU 96% → 96%
07
Nia ThompsonAttack error+0.4%
Attack error by Nia Thompson
Set 1 · HAMPTN 3-4 GMU · HAMPTN 3% → 4%
08
Ana Luiza MatosKill+0.3%
Kill by Ana Luiza Matos
Set 1 · HAMPTN 1-2 GMU · HAMPTN 3% → 4%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Hamptonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Racquel FrazierOH	3	10	4	24	.250	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	10
14Katerina PappaOH	3	6	2	23	.174	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	8
5Janiah RobinsonMB	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13Nikola JaroszewiczOH	2	6	1	15	.333	0	0	1	7	0	0	1	0.5	6.5
7Ana Luiza MatosS	1	1	0	3	.333	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
17Lillian CampbellMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
15Belen FerrufinoS	3	2	0	4	.500	23	1	1	3	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
18Dila DerendeliOH	3	0	1	1	-1.000	1	0	0	7	3	0	0	0	0
20Morgan ReevesOH	2	3	2	9	.111	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	3
1Leila RicksL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
9Jaya RimmOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21Aliyah MillnerMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
16Lyrique AlteusMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Maria Clara AndradeOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	12	84	.202	26	4	6	28	7	1	4	3	54

George Masonhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
11Nia ThompsonOH	3	15	5	28	.357	2	1	0	7	0	1	0.5	16.5
4Caroline RodriguezOH	3	8	3	21	.238	0	2	0	6	1	1	0.5	10.5
10Jenna HuntMB	3	7	0	11	.636	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	8.5
20Meredith BrownMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6
13Camryn WeldonS	3	1	1	6	.000	35	0	0	4	0	0	0	1
17Jordan LucasL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0
2Rylee KinnellOH	3	11	3	21	.381	1	0	2	3	0	1	0.5	11.5
18Autumn Martinez-RobinsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	2	3	14	0	0	0	2
1Mia HazelettMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		48	14	100	.340	43	7	7	36	4	6	3	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 HAMPTN · GMU 6

Set 1

16-25

Longest run 3 HAMPTNGMU 6

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 2 HAMPTNGMU 3

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 HAMPTNGMU 4

Bars above the line = George Mason leads, below = Hampton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Hampton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%9/15	30%3/10
2	58%7/12	18%2/11
3	41%7/17	0%0/7
4	55%6/11	0%0/7
5	67%6/9	33%3/9
6	60%6/10	45%5/11
All	55%41/74	24%13/55

George Mason

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	50%8/16
2	100%8/8	33%4/12
3	100%7/7	50%7/14
4	75%6/8	54%7/13
5	55%6/11	33%3/9
6	75%6/8	40%4/10
All	76%42/55	45%33/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	HAMPTN-GMU	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	GMU	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.5
2	0-2	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Racquel Frazier		+0.4
3	1-2	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Ana Luiza Matos		+0.3
4	2-2	HAMPTN	HAMPTN	Kill	Nikola Jaroszewicz	set Ana Luiza Matos	+0.5
5	2-3	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.4
6	2-4	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Nikola Jaroszewicz	blk Jenna Hunt, Rylee Kinnell	+0.4
7	3-4	GMU	HAMPTN	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.4
8	3-5	HAMPTN	GMU×6	Attack err	Katerina Pappa	blk Caroline Rodriguez, Jenna Hunt	+0.3
9	3-6	GMU	GMU×6	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.4
10	3-7	GMU	GMU×6	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.3
11	3-8	GMU	GMU×6	Kill	Meredith Brown		+0.2
12	3-9	GMU	GMU×6	Ace	GMU server	aced Team	+0.2
13	3-10	GMU	GMU×6	Ace	GMU server	aced Team	+0.1
14	4-10	GMU	HAMPTN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.1
15	4-11	HAMPTN	GMU	Serve err	HAMPTN server		+0.1
16	5-11	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Katerina Pappa	set Ana Luiza Matos	+0.1
17	5-12	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Camryn Weldon		+0.1
18	5-13	GMU	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
19	6-13	GMU	HAMPTN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.0
20	6-14	HAMPTN	GMU×3	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Jordan Lucas	+0.1
21	6-15	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Katerina Pappa	+0.0
22	6-16	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Dila Derendeli	+0.0
23	7-16	GMU	HAMPTN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.0
24	7-17	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
25	8-17	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
26	8-18	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
27	9-18	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Katerina Pappa	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
28	9-19	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
29	10-19	GMU	HAMPTN	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell	blk Belen Ferrufino, Lillian Campbell	+0.0
30	10-20	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
31	10-21	GMU	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
32	11-21	GMU	HAMPTN×3	Kill	Morgan Reeves	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
33	12-21	HAMPTN	HAMPTN×3	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.0
34	13-21	HAMPTN	HAMPTN×3	Ace	HAMPTN server	aced Caroline Rodriguez	+0.0
35	13-22	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
36	14-22	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Morgan Reeves	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
37	14-23	HAMPTN	GMU	Serve err	HAMPTN server		+0.0
38	15-23	GMU	HAMPTN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.0
39	15-24	HAMPTN	GMU	Serve err	HAMPTN server		+0.0
40	16-24	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Katerina Pappa	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
41	16-25	HAMPTN	GMU	Attack err	Katerina Pappa	blk Nia Thompson, Jenna Hunt	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
2	1-1	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.3
3	1-2	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Rylee Kinnell	+0.2
4	1-3	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Morgan Reeves		+0.3
5	2-3	GMU	HAMPTN	Attack err	Meredith Brown		+0.2
6	2-4	HAMPTN	GMU×3	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
7	2-5	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Dila Derendeli	+0.2
8	2-6	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.2
9	3-6	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Morgan Reeves	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
10	3-7	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
11	3-8	GMU	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
12	4-8	GMU	HAMPTN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.1
13	5-8	HAMPTN	HAMPTN	Ace	HAMPTN server	aced Jordan Lucas	+0.2
14	5-9	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
15	5-10	GMU	GMU	Serve err	GMU server		+0.2
16	6-10	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
17	7-10	HAMPTN	HAMPTN	Ace	HAMPTN server	aced Jordan Lucas	+0.2
18	7-11	HAMPTN	GMU×3	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
19	7-12	GMU	GMU×3	Bad set	Belen Ferrufino		+0.2
20	7-13	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
21	8-13	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
22	9-13	HAMPTN	HAMPTN	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.2
23	9-14	HAMPTN	GMU	Serve err	HAMPTN server		+0.1
24	10-14	GMU	HAMPTN	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell		+0.1
25	10-15	HAMPTN	GMU	Serve err	HAMPTN server		+0.1
26	11-15	GMU	HAMPTN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.1
27	11-16	HAMPTN	GMU×3	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Nia Thompson	+0.1
28	11-17	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Meredith Brown		+0.1
29	11-18	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Maria Clara Andrade	+0.1
30	12-18	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Katerina Pappa	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
31	12-19	HAMPTN	GMU	Serve err	HAMPTN server		+0.0
32	12-20	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Lyrique Alteus		+0.0
33	13-20	GMU	HAMPTN	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.0
34	13-21	HAMPTN	GMU	Attack err	Morgan Reeves		+0.0
35	13-22	GMU	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
36	14-22	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Belen Ferrufino		+0.0
37	14-23	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
38	15-23	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
39	16-23	HAMPTN	HAMPTN	Ace	HAMPTN server	aced Team	+0.0
40	16-24	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
41	17-24	GMU	HAMPTN	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.0
42	17-25	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	GMU	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
2	1-1	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Nikola Jaroszewicz	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
3	1-2	HAMPTN	GMU	Attack err	Dila Derendeli		+0.1
4	2-2	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Katerina Pappa	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
5	2-3	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
6	3-3	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Nikola Jaroszewicz	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
7	3-4	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
8	3-5	GMU	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.1
9	4-5	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Belen Ferrufino		+0.1
10	4-6	HAMPTN	GMU	Attack err	Racquel Frazier		+0.1
11	5-6	GMU	HAMPTN	Attack err	Meredith Brown		+0.1
12	6-6	HAMPTN	HAMPTN	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.2
13	6-7	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.1
14	7-7	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
15	7-8	HAMPTN	GMU×4	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
16	7-9	GMU	GMU×4	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
17	7-10	GMU	GMU×4	Attack err	Racquel Frazier		+0.1
18	7-11	GMU	GMU×4	Kill	Nia Thompson		+0.1
19	8-11	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Nikola Jaroszewicz	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
20	8-12	HAMPTN	GMU	Attack err	Aliyah Millner		+0.1
21	8-13	GMU	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
22	9-13	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Aliyah Millner	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
23	9-14	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
24	9-15	GMU	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Nia Thompson	+0.1
25	10-15	GMU	HAMPTN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.0
26	10-16	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
27	10-17	GMU	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.0
28	11-17	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Katerina Pappa	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
29	11-18	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
30	12-18	GMU	HAMPTN×4	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
31	13-18	HAMPTN	HAMPTN×4	Attack err	Camryn Weldon		+0.0
32	14-18	HAMPTN	HAMPTN×4	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.1
33	15-18	HAMPTN	HAMPTN×4	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Aliyah Millner	+0.1
34	15-19	HAMPTN	GMU	Attack err	Racquel Frazier		+0.1
35	16-19	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
36	17-19	HAMPTN	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Dila Derendeli	+0.2
37	17-20	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
38	18-20	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Racquel Frazier	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1
39	19-20	HAMPTN	HAMPTN	Kill	Nikola Jaroszewicz	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.3
40	19-21	HAMPTN	GMU×3	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
41	19-22	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
42	19-23	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Dila Derendeli	+0.1
43	20-23	GMU	HAMPTN	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell	blk Aliyah Millner, Nikola Jaroszewicz	+0.0
44	20-24	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
45	21-24	GMU	HAMPTN	Kill	Nikola Jaroszewicz	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.0
46	21-25	HAMPTN	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Belen Ferrufino	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Hampton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.