FinalMon, Sep 7, 2026

AwayATLANTIC-10

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Maryland def. George Mason 3–0

(25-14, 25-10, 25-12)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
GMU	14	10	12	0
MD	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MD above 50 · GMU below

Biggest swing: 0.7% to George Mason — set 1, GMU 1-0 MD. Kill by Jenna Hunt (set by Sara Toth). MD win probability 95% → 94%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

GMU 4.9%95.1% MD

George Mason wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.4%

3-2

3.0%

Maryland wins

3-0

55.7%

3-1

29.6%

3-2

9.8%

GMU break %: 34.8% vs this opp
MD break %: 47.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Jenna HuntKill+0.7%
Kill by Jenna Hunt (set by Sara Toth)
Set 1 · GMU 1-0 MD · GMU 5% → 6%
02
Caroline RodriguezAttack error+0.6%
Caroline Rodriguez stuffed by Duru Gökçen & Ava Brown
Set 1 · GMU 1-2 MD · MD 95% → 95%
03
GMU serverAce+0.5%
George Mason ace on Haley Melby
Set 1 · GMU 9-11 MD · GMU 4% → 4%
04
Caroline RodriguezAttack error+0.5%
Caroline Rodriguez stuffed by Ava Brown & Duru Gökçen
Set 1 · GMU 1-3 MD · MD 95% → 96%
05
Nia ThompsonAttack error+0.5%
Nia Thompson stuffed by Duru Gökçen & Ava Brown
Set 1 · GMU 10-14 MD · MD 96% → 97%
06
Sydney BryantKill+0.5%
Kill by Sydney Bryant (set by Raina Chwialkowski)
Set 1 · GMU 1-1 MD · MD 94% → 95%
07
Jenna HuntKill+0.4%
Kill by Jenna Hunt (set by Camryn Weldon)
Set 1 · GMU 3-5 MD · GMU 4% → 4%
08
Ava BrownKill+0.4%
Kill by Ava Brown (set by Sara Toth)
Set 1 · GMU 1-4 MD · MD 96% → 96%

Official NCAA box

Box score

George Masonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Nia ThompsonOH	3	7	11	28	-.143	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	7
10Jenna HuntMB	3	6	1	11	.455	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	7
4Caroline RodriguezOH	3	5	11	23	-.261	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	1	6
20Meredith BrownMB	3	3	1	12	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
13Camryn WeldonS	3	0	0	2	.000	12	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
17Jordan LucasL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
3Rylee KinnellOH	3	4	7	20	-.150	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	6
18Autumn Martinez-RobinsonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	2	15	1	0	0	0	0
1Mia HazelettMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Ava CheneyS	2	0	0	2	.000	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Alexa StutzmanL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		25	31	98	-.061	24	2	4	33	3	1	4	3	36

Marylandhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Haley MelbyOH	3	13	1	27	.444	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	1	14
3Ava BrownOH	3	6	2	10	.400	0	0	1	4	0	0	6	3	9
16Sydney BryantOH	3	7	0	14	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
44Eva RohrbachMB	3	6	1	9	.556	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	1	7
23Duru GökçenMB	3	3	0	6	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	3.5	6.5
18Sara TothS	3	0	0	4	.000	27	1	1	5	0	1	1	1.5	2.5
24Brooklynne BrassOH	3	2	1	10	.100	2	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	2
6Elayna DavidsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
2Raina ChwialkowskiDS	3	0	0	0	–	6	1	1	12	0	0	0	0	1
5Alex McGillivrayL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	5	80	.400	35	3	4	37	2	1	18	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 GMU · MD 6

Set 1

14-25

Longest run 3 GMUMD 6

Set 2

10-25

Longest run 2 GMUMD 4

Set 3

12-25

Longest run 2 GMUMD 5

Bars above the line = Maryland leads, below = George Mason leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

George Mason

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	32%6/19	29%2/7
2	46%6/13	25%2/8
3	28%5/18	14%1/7
4	50%4/8	17%1/6
5	33%3/9	33%2/6
6	50%3/6	25%1/4
All	37%27/73	24%9/38

Maryland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	67%6/9	67%8/12
2	86%6/7	63%10/16
3	83%5/6	64%9/14
4	83%5/6	71%12/17
5	57%4/7	50%4/8
6	100%3/3	50%3/6
All	76%29/38	63%46/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

111 rallies

Rally log

#	GMU-MD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	GMU	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Sara Toth	+0.7
2	1-1	GMU	MD×5	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.5
3	1-2	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Duru Gökçen, Ava Brown	+0.6
4	1-3	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Ava Brown, Duru Gökçen	+0.5
5	1-4	MD	MD×5	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.4
6	1-5	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Nia Thompson	blk Duru Gökçen, Ava Brown	+0.3
7	2-5	MD	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
8	3-5	GMU	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.4
9	3-6	GMU	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.3
10	3-7	MD	MD	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.4
11	4-7	MD	GMU	Serve err	MD server		+0.3
12	4-8	GMU	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.3
13	4-9	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell		+0.3
14	4-10	MD	MD×3	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.2
15	5-10	MD	GMU	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
16	6-10	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Eva Rohrbach		+0.3
17	6-11	GMU	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.2
18	7-11	MD	GMU×3	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
19	8-11	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Haley Melby	+0.4
20	9-11	GMU	GMU×3	Ace	GMU server	aced Haley Melby	+0.5
21	9-12	GMU	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.4
22	10-12	MD	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.4
23	10-13	GMU	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.4
24	10-14	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Nia Thompson	blk Duru Gökçen, Ava Brown	+0.5
25	10-15	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Nia Thompson	blk Duru Gökçen, Ava Brown	+0.3
26	10-16	MD	MD×4	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.2
27	11-16	MD	GMU	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
28	11-17	GMU	MD	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.1
29	12-17	MD	GMU	Attack err	Ava Brown	blk Caroline Rodriguez, Jenna Hunt	+0.1
30	12-18	GMU	MD	Attack err	Meredith Brown	blk Duru Gökçen, Haley Melby	+0.1
31	13-18	MD	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
32	13-19	GMU	MD×6	Serve err	GMU server		+0.1
33	13-20	MD	MD×6	Kill	Haley Melby	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.1
34	13-21	MD	MD×6	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.0
35	13-22	MD	MD×6	Ace	MD server	aced Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.0
36	13-23	MD	MD×6	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.0
37	13-24	MD	MD×6	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.0
38	14-24	MD	GMU	Attack err	Brooklynne Brass	blk Meredith Brown	+0.0
39	14-25	GMU	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MD	MD	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.4
2	0-2	MD	MD	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.3
3	1-2	MD	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
4	2-2	GMU	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Camryn Weldon	+0.4
5	2-3	GMU	MD×3	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.3
6	2-4	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell		+0.3
7	2-5	MD	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.3
8	3-5	MD	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Camryn Weldon	+0.2
9	3-6	GMU	MD×3	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.2
10	3-7	MD	MD×3	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.2
11	3-8	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.2
12	4-8	MD	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.1
13	4-9	GMU	MD×4	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.1
14	4-10	MD	MD×4	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.1
15	4-11	MD	MD×4	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.1
16	4-12	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell	blk Sara Toth	+0.1
17	5-12	MD	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
18	5-13	GMU	MD×4	Serve err	GMU server		+0.0
19	5-14	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Nia Thompson	blk Eva Rohrbach, Sara Toth	+0.0
20	5-15	MD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
21	5-16	MD	MD×4	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.0
22	6-16	MD	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
23	7-16	GMU	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
24	7-17	GMU	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.0
25	8-17	MD	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
26	8-18	GMU	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.0
27	8-19	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.0
28	8-20	MD	MD×4	Ace	MD server	aced Alexa Stutzman	+0.0
29	8-21	MD	MD×4	Kill	Ava Brown		+0.0
30	9-21	MD	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
31	9-22	GMU	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.0
32	10-22	MD	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
33	10-23	GMU	MD×3	Serve err	GMU server		+0.0
34	10-24	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.0
35	10-25	MD	MD×3	Ace	MD server	aced Team	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	GMU	MD×3	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
2	0-2	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.1
3	0-3	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.1
4	1-3	MD	GMU	Attack err	Haley Melby	blk Caroline Rodriguez, Jenna Hunt	+0.1
5	1-4	GMU	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
6	2-4	MD	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Ava Cheney	+0.1
7	3-4	GMU	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Ava Cheney	+0.2
8	3-5	GMU	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Brooklynne Brass	+0.1
9	4-5	MD	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Ava Cheney	+0.1
10	4-6	GMU	MD	Serve err	GMU server		+0.1
11	5-6	MD	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.1
12	5-7	GMU	MD×3	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.1
13	5-8	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Jenna Hunt		+0.1
14	5-9	MD	MD×3	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
15	6-9	MD	GMU	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
16	6-10	GMU	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.1
17	7-10	MD	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.1
18	8-10	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Ava Brown		+0.2
19	8-11	GMU	MD×3	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.1
20	8-12	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell	blk Ava Brown, Duru Gökçen	+0.1
21	8-13	MD	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.1
22	9-13	MD	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.1
23	9-14	GMU	MD×5	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell		+0.1
24	9-15	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell		+0.1
25	9-16	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.0
26	9-17	MD	MD×5	Kill	Haley Melby	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.0
27	9-18	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Eva Rohrbach, Haley Melby	+0.0
28	10-18	MD	GMU	Kill	Rylee Kinnell	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
29	10-19	GMU	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.0
30	10-20	MD	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.0
31	10-21	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Rylee Kinnell		+0.0
32	11-21	MD	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
33	11-22	GMU	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Brooklynne Brass	+0.0
34	11-23	MD	MD	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+0.0
35	12-23	MD	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Camryn Weldon	+0.0
36	12-24	GMU	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.0
37	12-25	MD	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, George Mason first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.