Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayATLANTIC-10

3:1

HomeMEAC

George Mason def. Morgan St. 3–1

(25-21, 25-14, 23-25, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	4	Sets
GMU	25	25	23	25	3
MORGAN	21	14	25	21	1

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MORGAN above 50 · GMU below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Morgan St. — set 1, GMU 10-13 MORGAN. Bad set by Ava Cheney. MORGAN win probability 11% → 12%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

GMU 93.0%7.0% MORGAN

George Mason wins

3-0

50.4%

3-1

30.9%

3-2

11.8%

Morgan St. wins

3-0

0.9%

3-1

2.0%

3-2

4.1%

GMU break %: 47.8% vs this opp
MORGAN break %: 36.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ava CheneyBad set+1.7%
Bad set by Ava Cheney
Set 1 · GMU 10-13 MORGAN · MORGAN 11% → 12%
02
Caroline RodriguezAttack error+1.6%
Caroline Rodriguez stuffed by Nathalia Morais
Set 1 · GMU 10-12 MORGAN · MORGAN 9% → 11%
03
GMU serverAce+1.5%
George Mason ace on Michaela Panekova
Set 1 · GMU 12-13 MORGAN · GMU 89% → 90%
04
Isabelle BrownKill+1.4%
Kill by Isabelle Brown (set by Ava Cheney)
Set 3 · GMU 23-25 MORGAN · MORGAN 4% → 5%
05
Nia ThompsonKill+1.4%
Kill by Nia Thompson (set by Ava Cheney)
Set 1 · GMU 13-13 MORGAN · GMU 90% → 92%
06
Caroline RodriguezAttack error+1.4%
Attack error by Caroline Rodriguez
Set 4 · GMU 1-2 MORGAN · MORGAN 5% → 7%
07
Isabelle BrownBad set+1.3%
Bad set by Isabelle Brown
Set 4 · GMU 23-20 MORGAN · GMU 98% → 99%
08
Isabelle BrownKill+1.3%
Kill by Isabelle Brown (set by Ava Cheney)
Set 3 · GMU 22-24 MORGAN · MORGAN 3% → 4%

Official NCAA box

Box score

George Masonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Nia ThompsonOH	4	20	3	56	.304	1	2	1	9	3	1	1	1.5	23.5
5Kiera HamiltonOH	4	15	7	45	.178	1	1	2	11	0	0	0	0	16
10Jenna HuntMB	4	7	3	17	.235	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	3	10
4Caroline RodriguezOH	4	7	5	22	.091	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
20Meredith BrownMB	4	3	3	10	.000	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	2.5	5.5
12Ava CheneyS	4	2	0	5	.400	41	0	5	4	0	0	2	1	3
9Avery BookerOH	4	0	0	1	.000	0	2	3	11	0	0	0	0	2
1Mia HazelettMB	4	1	0	2	.500	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
18Autumn Martinez-RobinsonL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	4	0	2	18	0	0	0	0	0
6Mckenna ReynoldsS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		55	21	158	.215	48	5	14	54	3	6	4	8	98

Morgan St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Michaela PanekovaOH	4	18	7	41	.268	1	0	1	12	1	0	0	0	18
1Jada WilliamsMB	4	8	3	26	.192	1	1	2	8	0	1	2	2	11
4Isabelle BrownS	4	6	1	15	.333	22	0	1	7	0	3	0	3	9
11Aubrey WilsonMB	4	1	3	8	-.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
10Nathalia MoraisOH	3	3	5	15	-.133	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	2	5
8Tre'Niya MillerMB	2	0	1	2	-.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
7Jenae MasonOH	4	3	4	11	-.091	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	4
5Bailey SwintonL/DS	4	1	0	1	1.000	1	1	3	7	0	0	0	0	2
21Kira DevriezeL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	8	1	0	0	0	1
6Tameary WardlawL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	5	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	0
16Zayda ThomasOH	2	2	1	8	.125	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	3
Team totals		42	25	127	.134	33	3	10	58	5	9	4	11	81

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 10 GMU · MORGAN 4

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 6 GMUMORGAN 4

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 10 GMUMORGAN 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 GMUMORGAN 3

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 8 GMUMORGAN 3

Bars above the line = Morgan St. leads, below = George Mason leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

George Mason

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%11/19	31%4/13
2	59%10/17	9%1/11
3	91%10/11	44%8/18
4	80%8/10	74%26/35
5	73%8/11	27%3/11
6	50%7/14	22%2/9
All	66%54/82	45%44/97

Morgan St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%11/15	55%11/20
2	71%10/14	35%6/17
3	31%9/29	29%4/14
4	45%9/20	18%2/11
5	70%7/10	20%2/10
6	78%7/9	30%3/10
All	55%53/97	34%28/82

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

179 rallies

Rally log

#	GMU-MORGAN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.7
2	1-1	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.6
3	1-2	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Isabelle Brown	+0.7
4	1-3	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton	blk Aubrey Wilson, Jada Williams	+1.1
5	2-3	MORGAN	GMU	Attack err	Jada Williams		+0.7
6	2-4	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.8
7	3-4	MORGAN	GMU×3	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.7
8	4-4	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Jada Williams		+1.0
9	5-4	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Nathalia Morais	blk Nia Thompson, Ava Cheney	+0.9
10	5-5	GMU	MORGAN	Attack err	Meredith Brown		+0.7
11	5-6	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Aubrey Wilson	set Ava Cheney	+1.1
12	6-6	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.7
13	6-7	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.9
14	6-8	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton	blk Tre'Niya Miller	+1.3
15	7-8	MORGAN	GMU	Attack err	Nathalia Morais	blk Jenna Hunt	+0.8
16	7-9	GMU	MORGAN	Attack err	Jenna Hunt	blk Isabelle Brown	+1.0
17	8-9	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.9
18	9-9	GMU	GMU	Ace	GMU server	aced Nathalia Morais	+1.2
19	9-10	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+1.0
20	10-10	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.9
21	10-11	GMU	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Nathalia Morais	+1.0
22	10-12	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Nathalia Morais	+1.6
23	10-13	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Bad set	Ava Cheney		+1.7
24	11-13	MORGAN	GMU×4	Serve err	MORGAN server		+1.0
25	12-13	GMU	GMU×4	Ace	GMU server	aced Michaela Panekova	+1.5
26	13-13	GMU	GMU×4	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+1.4
27	14-13	GMU	GMU×4	Ace	GMU server	aced Nathalia Morais	+1.3
28	14-14	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Michaela Panekova	+1.0
29	15-14	MORGAN	GMU×6	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Ava Cheney	+1.0
30	16-14	GMU	GMU×6	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+1.2
31	17-14	GMU	GMU×6	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+1.0
32	18-14	GMU	GMU×6	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Meredith Brown	+0.7
33	19-14	GMU	GMU×6	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+0.5
34	20-14	GMU	GMU×6	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.3
35	20-15	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Nathalia Morais	set Aubrey Wilson	+0.1
36	21-15	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.2
37	21-16	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Ava Cheney	+0.1
38	22-16	MORGAN	GMU	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.1
39	23-16	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Tre'Niya Miller	blk Jenna Hunt	+0.1
40	23-17	GMU	MORGAN×4	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
41	23-18	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Jada Williams, Tre'Niya Miller	+0.1
42	23-19	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Attack err	Jenna Hunt		+0.1
43	23-20	MORGAN	MORGAN×4	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.3
44	24-20	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.4
45	24-21	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
46	25-21	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.3
Set 2
1	1-0	MORGAN	GMU	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.3
2	1-1	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.4
3	2-1	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.4
4	2-2	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.4
5	3-2	MORGAN	GMU	Attack err	Jenae Mason		+0.4
6	3-3	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jenae Mason	set Isabelle Brown	+0.4
7	4-3	MORGAN	GMU	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.4
8	5-3	GMU	GMU	Bad set	Tameary Wardlaw		+0.5
9	5-4	GMU	MORGAN	Attack err	Meredith Brown	blk Jenae Mason	+0.4
10	5-5	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Nia Thompson		+0.6
11	6-5	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.4
12	7-5	GMU	GMU	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Ava Cheney	+0.5
13	7-6	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown		+0.4
14	8-6	MORGAN	GMU	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.4
15	9-6	GMU	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.5
16	9-7	GMU	MORGAN×3	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Ava Cheney	+0.3
17	9-8	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.6
18	9-9	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Tre'Niya Miller	+0.7
19	10-9	MORGAN	GMU	Attack err	Jada Williams		+0.5
20	11-9	GMU	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.6
21	11-10	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.5
22	12-10	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.4
23	13-10	GMU	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.5
24	13-11	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.4
25	14-11	MORGAN	GMU×10	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.4
26	15-11	GMU	GMU×10	Kill	Nia Thompson		+0.4
27	16-11	GMU	GMU×10	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.3
28	17-11	GMU	GMU×10	Ace	GMU server	aced Tameary Wardlaw	+0.2
29	18-11	GMU	GMU×10	Kill	Jenna Hunt		+0.1
30	19-11	GMU	GMU×10	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Nia Thompson	+0.1
31	20-11	GMU	GMU×10	Bad set	Isabelle Brown		+0.0
32	21-11	GMU	GMU×10	Attack err	Nathalia Morais		+0.0
33	22-11	GMU	GMU×10	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
34	23-11	GMU	GMU×10	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson		+0.0
35	23-12	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.0
36	23-13	MORGAN	MORGAN	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Nia Thompson	+0.0
37	24-13	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
38	24-14	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Jada Williams	+0.0
39	25-14	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	GMU	GMU	Ace	GMU server	aced Kira Devrieze	+0.2
2	1-1	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
3	1-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+0.3
4	2-2	MORGAN	GMU	Attack err	Jenae Mason		+0.2
5	2-3	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.2
6	3-3	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.2
7	4-3	GMU	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.2
8	4-4	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.2
9	5-4	MORGAN	GMU×3	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Ava Cheney	+0.2
10	6-4	GMU	GMU×3	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.2
11	7-4	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Jenae Mason		+0.2
12	7-5	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
13	8-5	MORGAN	GMU	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.1
14	8-6	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Bailey Swinton	set Mckenna Reynolds	+0.1
15	9-6	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson		+0.1
16	9-7	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
17	9-8	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.3
18	10-8	MORGAN	GMU	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.2
19	11-8	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Zayda Thomas		+0.2
20	11-9	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
21	12-9	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Ava Cheney		+0.2
22	12-10	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jenae Mason	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
23	13-10	MORGAN	GMU	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.2
24	13-11	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
25	14-11	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.2
26	15-11	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Jenae Mason	blk Jenna Hunt	+0.2
27	15-12	GMU	MORGAN	Attack err	Nia Thompson	blk Isabelle Brown	+0.1
28	16-12	MORGAN	GMU×3	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.1
29	17-12	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.1
30	18-12	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.1
31	18-13	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.0
32	18-14	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Bailey Swinton	+0.1
33	19-14	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Mia Hazelett	set Ava Cheney	+0.1
34	19-15	GMU	MORGAN×3	Serve err	GMU server		+0.1
35	19-16	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Aubrey Wilson	+0.2
36	19-17	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Nia Thompson	blk Zayda Thomas	+0.3
37	20-17	MORGAN	GMU	Attack err	Michaela Panekova		+0.2
38	20-18	GMU	MORGAN×3	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
39	20-19	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Jenae Mason	set Isabelle Brown	+0.4
40	20-20	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+0.6
41	21-20	MORGAN	GMU	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.5
42	21-21	GMU	MORGAN	Attack err	Jenna Hunt		+0.5
43	21-22	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+0.9
44	22-22	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Ava Cheney		+0.6
45	22-23	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.9
46	22-24	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Ava Cheney	+1.3
47	23-24	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.5
48	23-25	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Ava Cheney	+1.4
Set 4
1	1-0	MORGAN	GMU	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.8
2	1-1	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.9
3	1-2	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez		+1.4
4	2-2	MORGAN	GMU×3	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.9
5	3-2	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk Meredith Brown	+1.2
6	4-2	GMU	GMU×3	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson	blk Nia Thompson	+1.0
7	4-3	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.8
8	5-3	MORGAN	GMU×8	Kill	Meredith Brown	set Ava Cheney	+0.8
9	6-3	GMU	GMU×8	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Kiera Hamilton	+0.9
10	7-3	GMU	GMU×8	Kill	Kiera Hamilton		+0.7
11	8-3	GMU	GMU×8	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.6
12	9-3	GMU	GMU×8	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.4
13	10-3	GMU	GMU×8	Attack err	Michaela Panekova	blk Ava Cheney, Meredith Brown	+0.3
14	11-3	GMU	GMU×8	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.2
15	12-3	GMU	GMU×8	Attack err	Aubrey Wilson		+0.1
16	12-4	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.1
17	13-4	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Autumn Martinez-Robinson	+0.1
18	13-5	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams		+0.1
19	14-5	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Ava Cheney	+0.1
20	14-6	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Jada Williams	set Isabelle Brown	+0.1
21	15-6	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.1
22	15-7	GMU	MORGAN×3	Serve err	GMU server		+0.1
23	15-8	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Nia Thompson	+0.1
24	15-9	MORGAN	MORGAN×3	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
25	16-9	MORGAN	GMU	Serve err	MORGAN server		+0.2
26	16-10	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.2
27	16-11	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+0.3
28	17-11	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Caroline Rodriguez	set Ava Cheney	+0.3
29	17-12	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Isabelle Brown	+0.2
30	18-12	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.3
31	18-13	GMU	MORGAN	Attack err	Kiera Hamilton		+0.2
32	19-13	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.3
33	19-14	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Zayda Thomas	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.2
34	20-14	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Nia Thompson	set Ava Cheney	+0.3
35	20-15	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.2
36	20-16	MORGAN	MORGAN	Ace	MORGAN server	aced Nia Thompson	+0.4
37	21-16	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Jenna Hunt	set Ava Cheney	+0.5
38	21-17	GMU	MORGAN	Serve err	GMU server		+0.3
39	21-18	MORGAN	MORGAN	Kill	Isabelle Brown	set Nia Thompson	+0.7
40	22-18	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.8
41	22-19	GMU	MORGAN	Attack err	Caroline Rodriguez	blk Jada Williams	+0.5
42	22-20	MORGAN	MORGAN	Attack err	Meredith Brown	blk Isabelle Brown	+1.3
43	23-20	MORGAN	GMU	Bad set	Isabelle Brown		+1.3
44	24-20	GMU	GMU	Attack err	Isabelle Brown	blk Meredith Brown	+0.9
45	24-21	GMU	MORGAN	Kill	Michaela Panekova	set Tameary Wardlaw	+0.2
46	25-21	MORGAN	GMU	Kill	Kiera Hamilton	set Ava Cheney	+0.4

Score shown after each rally, George Mason first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.