FinalFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Marquette def. St. John's (NY) 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Marquette 87.0% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Marquette won at St. John's (NY) 3-0 (25-19, 25-14, 26-24) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Marquette's Carson Tyler led with 16 kills, and Emi Juric added 20 digs.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set123Sets
MARQ2525263
STJOHN1914240

Match story · written from the play-by-play

16 kills in 3 sets for Carson Tyler. Marquette swept St. John's (NY).

The biggest single-rally swing was 2.7 points, and St. John's (NY)'s high was 22% in Set 1. The gap came from these numbers. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Marquette at 87%.

MarquetteSt. John's (NY)
  • Break %+16.1 pts
    50.033.9

    On serve: 37/74 against 20/59 (St. John's (NY) sideout 50.0%).

  • Hitting+.161
    .209.048

    Kills and errors: 41–17 vs 28–23.

  • Longest run+0
    55

    Up 20–19 in the first set, Marquette scored 5 straight to make it 25–19. That set ended 25–19.

St. John's (NY) above 50Marquette belowMax swing 2.7%

MarquetteSt. John's (NY)

Aces
Marquette 6·St. John's (NY) 3
Serve err
Marquette 8·St. John's (NY) 5
Blocks
Marquette 8·St. John's (NY) 81 BS · 14 BA vs 3 BS · 10 BA
Digs
Marquette 45·St. John's (NY) 46

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

St. John's (NY) above 50 · Marquette below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+2.7% STJOHNrally 133 · set 3

Biggest swing: 2.7% to St. John's (NY) — set 1, MARQ 16-17 STJOHN. St. John's (NY) ace. STJOHN win probability 15% → 18%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MARQ 85.4%14.6% STJOHN

Marquette wins

3-0
37.7%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
16.4%

St. John's (NY) wins

3-0
2.1%
3-1
4.6%
3-2
7.8%
MARQ break %
48.3% vs this opp
STJOHN break %
40.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    St. John's (NY)Ace+2.7%

    St. John's (NY) ace

    Set 1 · MARQ 16-17 STJOHN · STJOHN 15% → 18%

  2. 02
    Carola TesoroAttack error+2.7%

    Attack error by Carola Tesoro

    Set 1 · MARQ 19-18 STJOHN · MARQ 84% → 87%

  3. 03

    Carola Tesoro stuffed by Molly Welge & Luanna Markus

    Set 1 · MARQ 20-18 STJOHN · MARQ 87% → 89%

  4. 04
    Carola TesoroKill+2.3%

    Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Maggie Carcillo)

    Set 1 · MARQ 17-18 STJOHN · STJOHN 16% → 18%

  5. 05

    Carola Tesoro stuffed by Tani Juric & Molly Welge

    Set 1 · MARQ 15-15 STJOHN · MARQ 82% → 85%

  6. 06

    Kill by Teodora Stamenkovic (set by Teodora Stamenkovic)

    Set 1 · MARQ 9-13 STJOHN · STJOHN 20% → 22%

  7. 07
    Kendall WhiteAttack error+2.2%

    Attack error by Kendall White

    Set 1 · MARQ 16-15 STJOHN · MARQ 85% → 87%

  8. 08
    Carson TylerAttack error+2.1%

    Attack error by Carson Tyler

    Set 1 · MARQ 8-11 STJOHN · STJOHN 18% → 20%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
316542.2620137000017
39428.1790000004211
37113.46201100031.59.5
3214.250381150031.54.5
3104.250000101434
3000–002800000
35521.000000110005
3000–020300002
3000–0112010001
2113.000000000001
Team totals4117115.2093868453114876
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
38929-.03400252010.58.5
37729.00001121010.58.5
34115.20000020233.57.5
3527.429000001227
33214.07100020010.53.5
3000–1200300000
3013-.333000100211
3001.0003111900001
3000–1111500001
3000–000610000
1103.333000000001
1013-.333000000000
1000–000100000
1000–000000000
Team totals2823104.0482635466310857

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Marquette vs St. John's (NY)

Season series · Marquette leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MARQ · STJOHN 5

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 5 MARQSTJOHN 5

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 3 MARQSTJOHN 2

Set 3

26-24

Longest run 5 MARQSTJOHN 3

Bars above the line = St. John's (NY) leads, below = Marquette leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Marquette

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
57%8/14
2
70%7/10
42%5/12
3
64%7/11
36%4/11
4
60%6/10
54%7/13
5
67%6/9
54%7/13
6
71%5/7
55%6/11
All
66%39/59
50%37/74

St. John's (NY)

SlotSideout %Break %
1
67%8/12
36%4/11
2
50%7/14
20%2/10
3
67%6/9
42%5/12
4
40%6/15
40%4/10
5
42%5/12
33%3/9
6
42%5/12
29%2/7
All
50%37/74
34%20/59

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

133 rallies

#MARQ-STJOHNSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0STJOHNMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.9
22-0MARQMARQKillJulia Stanev+1.1
32-1MARQSTJOHNKillLejla Hadžiredžepovicset Emi Juric+0.9
42-2STJOHNSTJOHNAceSt. John's (NY)aced Caydence Doolan+1.3
53-2STJOHNMARQAttack errCarola Tesoro+1.0
64-2MARQMARQAttack errTeodora Stamenkovic+1.1
74-3MARQSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+0.9
84-4STJOHNSTJOHNAttack errTani Juric+1.4
95-4STJOHNMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+1.0
106-4MARQMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.2
116-5MARQSTJOHN×5KillChloe' Bellset Maggie Carcillo+1.0
126-6STJOHNSTJOHN×5BlockedLuanna Markusblk Chloe' Bell+1.5
136-7STJOHNSTJOHN×5KillCarola Tesoroset Martina Capponcelli+1.7
146-8STJOHNSTJOHN×5AceSt. John's (NY)aced Emi Juric+1.9
156-9STJOHNSTJOHN×5BlockedCaydence Doolanblk Chloe' Bell+2.0
167-9STJOHNMARQServe errSt. John's (NY)+1.3
178-9MARQMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+1.8
188-10MARQSTJOHNServe errMarquette+1.6
198-11STJOHNSTJOHNAttack errCarson Tyler+2.1
209-11STJOHNMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.4
219-12MARQSTJOHNKillBarbara Costa dos Santosset Martina Capponcelli+1.8
229-13STJOHNSTJOHNKillTeodora Stamenkovicset Teodora Stamenkovic+2.2
2310-13STJOHNMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.4
2411-13MARQMARQ×3KillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+2.0
2512-13MARQMARQ×3Bad setBarbara Costa dos Santos+2.0
2612-14MARQSTJOHNServe errMarquette+1.9
2713-14STJOHNMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+1.6
2813-15MARQSTJOHNServe errMarquette+2.0
2914-15STJOHNMARQ×3Attack errCarola Tesoro+1.7
3015-15MARQMARQ×3BlockedCarola Tesoroblk Tani Juric, Molly Welge+2.2
3116-15MARQMARQ×3Attack errKendall White+2.2
3216-16MARQSTJOHNKillKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo+1.8
3316-17STJOHNSTJOHNAceSt. John's (NY)+2.7
3417-17STJOHNMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+1.9
3517-18MARQSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+2.3
3618-18STJOHNMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+2.1
3719-18MARQMARQ×3Attack errCarola Tesoro+2.7
3820-18MARQMARQ×3BlockedCarola Tesoroblk Molly Welge, Luanna Markus+2.4
3920-19MARQSTJOHNServe errMarquette+1.7
4021-19STJOHNMARQ×5KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.0
4122-19MARQMARQ×5KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+2.0
4223-19MARQMARQ×5BlockedLejla Hadžiredžepovicblk Julia Stanev+1.2
4324-19MARQMARQ×5KillLuanna Markusset Martina Capponcelli+0.5
4425-19MARQMARQ×5AceMarquetteaced Carola Tesoro+0.1
Set 2
11-0MARQMARQBlockedCarola Tesoroblk Tani Juric, Julia Stanev+0.8
21-1MARQSTJOHNKillTeodora Stamenkovicset Maggie Carcillo+0.7
32-1STJOHNMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.7
43-1MARQMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.8
54-1MARQMARQ×3BlockedSoheila Cirelliblk Tani Juric, Julia Stanev+0.7
64-2MARQSTJOHNServe errMarquette+0.5
75-2STJOHNMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.5
85-3MARQSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Martina Capponcelli+0.6
96-3STJOHNMARQ×3Attack errSumaiyya Harris+0.6
107-3MARQMARQ×3Attack errLejla Hadžiredžepovic+0.6
118-3MARQMARQ×3AceMarquette+0.5
128-4MARQSTJOHNAttack errCaydence Doolan+0.4
139-4STJOHNMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.4
149-5MARQSTJOHNBlockedCarson Tylerblk Sumaiyya Harris, Teodora Stamenkovic+0.4
1510-5STJOHNMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.4
1611-5MARQMARQAttack errLejla Hadžiredžepovic+0.4
1711-6MARQSTJOHNServe errMarquette+0.3
1812-6STJOHNMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.3
1913-6MARQMARQAttack errTeodora Stamenkovic+0.3
2013-7MARQSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+0.2
2114-7STJOHNMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.2
2215-7MARQMARQAttack errKendall White+0.2
2315-8MARQSTJOHNKillCarola Tesoroset Rashanny Solano Smith+0.1
2415-9STJOHNSTJOHNAttack errCaydence Doolan+0.2
2516-9STJOHNMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.2
2616-10MARQSTJOHNServe errMarquette+0.2
2717-10STJOHNMARQ×3Serve errSt. John's (NY)+0.2
2818-10MARQMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.2
2919-10MARQMARQ×3AceMarquette+0.1
3019-11MARQSTJOHNKillLejla Hadžiredžepovicset Martina Capponcelli·
3120-11STJOHNMARQ×3KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.1
3221-11MARQMARQ×3Attack errLejla Hadžiredžepovic·
3322-11MARQMARQ×3BlockedLejla Hadžiredžepovicblk Molly Welge, Luanna Markus·
3422-12MARQSTJOHNKillTeodora Stamenkovicset Martina Capponcelli·
3523-12STJOHNMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus·
3623-13MARQSTJOHNKillLejla Hadžiredžepovicset Maggie Carcillo·
3724-13STJOHNMARQServe errSt. John's (NY)·
3824-14MARQSTJOHNKillTeodora Stamenkovicset Maggie Carcillo·
3925-14STJOHNMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus·
Set 3
10-1STJOHNSTJOHNKillLejla Hadžiredžepovicset Martina Capponcelli+0.5
21-1STJOHNMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.4
31-2MARQSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Martina Capponcelli+0.4
42-2STJOHNMARQBlockedLejla Hadžiredžepovicblk Julia Stanev, Tani Juric+0.4
52-3MARQSTJOHNAttack errMolly Welge+0.4
63-3STJOHNMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+0.4
74-3MARQMARQAttack errLejla Hadžiredžepovic+0.5
84-4MARQSTJOHNKillTeodora Stamenkovicset Maggie Carcillo+0.4
95-4STJOHNMARQ×3KillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.4
106-4MARQMARQ×3Attack errCarola Tesoro+0.4
117-4MARQMARQ×3Attack errCarola Tesoro+0.4
127-5MARQSTJOHN×3KillCarola Tesoroset Maggie Carcillo+0.3
137-6STJOHNSTJOHN×3BlockedCarson Tylerblk Kendall White, Chloe' Bell+0.4
147-7STJOHNSTJOHN×3KillCarola Tesoroset Rashanny Solano Smith+0.5
158-7STJOHNMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.4
169-7MARQMARQBlockedCarola Tesoroblk Julia Stanev, Luanna Markus+0.5
179-8MARQSTJOHNKillKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo+0.4
1810-8STJOHNMARQ×5KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.4
1911-8MARQMARQ×5KillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.4
2012-8MARQMARQ×5AceLuanna Markusaced Katianna Betancur+0.3
2113-8MARQMARQ×5KillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.3
2214-8MARQMARQ×5Attack errChloe' Bell+0.2
2314-9MARQSTJOHN×3BlockedTani Juricblk Carola Tesoro, Chloe' Bell+0.1
2414-10STJOHNSTJOHN×3KillLejla Hadžiredžepovicset Rashanny Solano Smith+0.2
2514-11STJOHNSTJOHN×3Bad setLuanna Markus+0.3
2615-11STJOHNMARQServe errSt. John's (NY)+0.3
2715-12MARQSTJOHNBlockedCaydence Doolanblk Chloe' Bell, Sumaiyya Harris+0.3
2815-13STJOHNSTJOHNBlockedTani Juricblk Teodora Stamenkovic, Lejla Hadžiredžepovic+0.5
2916-13STJOHNMARQKillCaydence Doolanset Luanna Markus+0.4
3016-14MARQSTJOHNAttack errTani Juric+0.4
3116-15STJOHNSTJOHNBlockedCaydence Doolanblk Teodora Stamenkovic+0.6
3217-15STJOHNMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.5
3317-16MARQSTJOHNAttack errEmma Parks+0.5
3418-16STJOHNMARQKillMolly Welgeset Luanna Markus+0.5
3518-17MARQSTJOHNKillKendall Whiteset Maggie Carcillo+0.5
3619-17STJOHNMARQServe errSt. John's (NY)+0.6
3719-18MARQSTJOHNAttack errCarson Tyler+0.6
3819-19STJOHNSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Martina Capponcelli+1.0
3920-19STJOHNMARQKillCarson Tylerset Luanna Markus+0.8
4020-20MARQSTJOHNKillChloe' Bellset Martina Capponcelli+0.8
4120-21STJOHNSTJOHNAttack errCarson Tyler+1.3
4221-21STJOHNMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.0
4322-21MARQMARQAceCarson Tyleraced Lejla Hadžiredžepovic+1.3
4422-22MARQSTJOHNServe errCarson Tyler+1.1
4523-22STJOHNMARQKillLuanna Markus+1.2
4624-22MARQMARQAceEmi Juricaced Carola Tesoro+1.3
4724-23MARQSTJOHNKillLejla Hadžiredžepovicset Martina Capponcelli+0.6
4824-24STJOHNSTJOHNKillLejla Hadžiredžepovicset Martina Capponcelli+1.9
4925-24STJOHNMARQKillTani Juricset Luanna Markus+1.5
5026-24MARQMARQKillEmma Parksset Luanna Markus+1.7

Score shown after each rally, Marquette first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).