FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

3:0

HomeNEC

St. John's (NY) def. Central Conn. St. 3–0

(25-21, 25-19, 25-23)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STJOHN	25	25	25	3
C CONN	21	19	23	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

C CONN above 50 · STJOHN below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to St. John's (NY) — set 3, STJOHN 25-23 C CONN. Attack error by Madison Fulgencio. C CONN win probability 1% → 0%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STJOHN 95.6%4.4% C CONN

St. John's (NY) wins

3-0

57.1%

3-1

29.2%

3-2

9.2%

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0

0.5%

3-1

1.2%

3-2

2.7%

STJOHN break %: 49.2% vs this opp
C CONN break %: 36.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Madison FulgencioAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Madison Fulgencio
Set 3 · STJOHN 25-23 C CONN · STJOHN 99% → 100%
02
Carola TesoroKill+0.6%
Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Amanda Caputi)
Set 3 · STJOHN 24-23 C CONN · STJOHN 99% → 99%
03
C CONN serverAce+0.6%
Central Conn. St. ace on Shiloh Clayton
Set 1 · STJOHN 8-7 C CONN · C CONN 4% → 4%
04
Kendall WhiteKill+0.6%
Kill by Kendall White (set by Carola Tesoro)
Set 1 · STJOHN 14-11 C CONN · STJOHN 96% → 97%
05
STJOHN serverAce+0.6%
St. John's (NY) ace on Meg Berkland
Set 3 · STJOHN 21-21 C CONN · STJOHN 98% → 99%
06
Carola TesoroKill+0.5%
Kill by Carola Tesoro (set by Rashanny Solano Smith)
Set 3 · STJOHN 22-21 C CONN · STJOHN 99% → 99%
07
Anja MilosevicKill+0.5%
Kill by Anja Milosevic
Set 1 · STJOHN 6-5 C CONN · C CONN 3% → 4%
08
Hanley SchmidtKill+0.5%
Kill by Hanley Schmidt (set by Anja Milosevic)
Set 1 · STJOHN 12-11 C CONN · C CONN 4% → 4%

Official NCAA box

Box score

St. John's (NY)away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
19Carola TesoroOH	3	13	2	25	.440	2	0	1	6	0	0	2	1	14
1Teodora StamenkovicMB	3	8	0	11	.727	0	0	0	0	0	1	8	5	13
7Lejla HadžiredžepovicOH	3	9	4	21	.238	2	2	0	1	2	0	2	1	12
2Kendall WhiteOH	3	6	2	18	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	2.5	8.5
12Amanda CaputiS	3	0	0	0	–	19	1	0	6	0	0	0	0	1
14Chloe' BellMB	2	1	1	3	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
9Rashanny Solano SmithL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	1	17	0	0	0	0	0
4Martina CapponcelliS	2	0	0	0	–	8	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
8Shiloh ClaytonL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0
11Brooke BoylesOH	1	2	2	6	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
3Angelica RodriguezOPP	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
10Barbara Costa dos SantosOH	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
21Soheila CirelliOH	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
22Kya HarrisMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
33Sumaiyya HarrisMB	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Katianna BetancurL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
26Maggie CarcilloS	1	0	0	0	–	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		40	13	91	.297	39	4	6	37	4	1	23	12.5	75

Central Conn. St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Breanna GinleyMB	3	11	0	17	.647	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	12.5
5Olivia KecklerOPP	3	9	6	34	.088	0	0	3	5	1	0	1	0.5	9.5
9Hanley SchmidtOH	3	7	9	25	-.080	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0.5	7.5
11Cullen WinterMB	3	6	3	13	.231	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	7.5
10Anja MilosevicS	3	2	0	3	.667	34	0	2	7	0	0	2	1	3
6Meg BerklandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	0
15Madison FulgencioOH	3	3	3	11	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
1Annabelle DenommeL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	2	5	1	0	0	0	2
4Gabriella BurdierDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
17Danielle CaligiuriS	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		38	21	103	.165	35	4	10	28	4	1	8	5	63

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 STJOHN · C CONN 5

Set 1

25-21

Longest run 3 STJOHNC CONN 3

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 STJOHNC CONN 3

Set 3

25-23

Longest run 6 STJOHNC CONN 5

Bars above the line = Central Conn. St. leads, below = St. John's (NY) leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

St. John's (NY)

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	69%9/13	50%8/16
2	57%8/14	65%15/23
3	53%8/15	20%2/10
4	60%6/10	33%3/9
5	100%6/6	25%2/8
6	100%6/6	25%2/8
All	67%43/64	43%32/74

Central Conn. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	42%8/19	13%1/8
2	44%8/18	27%3/11
3	80%8/10	56%10/18
4	75%6/8	38%5/13
5	67%6/9	25%2/8
6	60%6/10	0%0/6
All	57%42/74	33%21/64

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

138 rallies

Rally log

#	STJOHN-C CONN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Kendall White	+0.5
2	2-0	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.4
3	3-0	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Kendall White	+0.4
4	3-1	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
5	4-1	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+0.3
6	5-1	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+0.3
7	5-2	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
8	6-2	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
9	6-3	STJOHN	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
10	6-4	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.4
11	6-5	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Anja Milosevic		+0.5
12	7-5	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.4
13	8-5	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Chloe' Bell	+0.4
14	8-6	STJOHN	C CONN	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.3
15	8-7	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	C CONN server	aced Shiloh Clayton	+0.6
16	9-7	C CONN	STJOHN	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+0.4
17	9-8	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Anja Milosevic	+0.5
18	10-8	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.4
19	10-9	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.5
20	11-9	C CONN	STJOHN	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+0.5
21	11-10	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.5
22	12-10	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+0.5
23	12-11	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.5
24	13-11	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.5
25	14-11	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Carola Tesoro	+0.6
26	14-12	STJOHN	C CONN	Attack err	Kendall White		+0.4
27	15-12	C CONN	STJOHN	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio		+0.4
28	15-13	STJOHN	C CONN	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.4
29	16-13	C CONN	STJOHN	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio	blk Angelica Rodriguez, Chloe' Bell	+0.4
30	17-13	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Olivia Keckler		+0.5
31	17-14	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
32	18-14	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.3
33	19-14	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Angelica Rodriguez, Teodora Stamenkovic, Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+0.3
34	19-15	STJOHN	C CONN	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic		+0.2
35	20-15	C CONN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.2
36	21-15	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Meg Berkland	+0.2
37	22-15	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Kendall White	+0.1
38	22-16	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
39	23-16	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.0
40	23-17	STJOHN	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
41	23-18	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+0.0
42	23-19	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
43	24-19	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+0.1
44	24-20	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
45	24-21	C CONN	C CONN	Bad set	Amanda Caputi		+0.1
46	25-21	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.2
Set 2
1	1-0	C CONN	STJOHN×4	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.2
2	2-0	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.3
3	3-0	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
4	4-0	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Kendall White	+0.2
5	4-1	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
6	5-1	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
7	6-1	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Carola Tesoro, Chloe' Bell	+0.2
8	6-2	STJOHN	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
9	6-3	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Carola Tesoro	blk Breanna Ginley, Anja Milosevic	+0.2
10	6-4	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Kendall White	blk Breanna Ginley, Olivia Keckler	+0.3
11	7-4	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
12	7-5	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
13	7-6	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Chloe' Bell		+0.4
14	8-6	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.3
15	8-7	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
16	9-7	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.3
17	9-8	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
18	10-8	C CONN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Barbara Costa dos Santos	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.3
19	11-8	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.3
20	12-8	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
21	12-9	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
22	12-10	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic		+0.3
23	13-10	C CONN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
24	14-10	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Annabelle Denomme	+0.3
25	15-10	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Attack err	Cullen Winter		+0.2
26	16-10	STJOHN	STJOHN×4	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+0.1
27	16-11	STJOHN	C CONN	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	blk Cullen Winter	+0.1
28	17-11	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
29	17-12	STJOHN	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
30	17-13	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Carola Tesoro		+0.2
31	17-14	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Anja Milosevic		+0.3
32	18-14	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
33	19-14	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.2
34	19-15	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
35	19-16	C CONN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
36	20-16	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.2
37	20-17	STJOHN	C CONN	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.2
38	21-17	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Chloe' Bell	set Martina Capponcelli	+0.2
39	22-17	STJOHN	STJOHN	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Olivia Keckler	+0.2
40	22-18	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
41	23-18	C CONN	STJOHN	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Teodora Stamenkovic, Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+0.1
42	24-18	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
43	24-19	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.0
44	25-19	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	STJOHN	C CONN×4	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.1
2	0-2	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic		+0.2
3	0-3	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	C CONN server	aced Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+0.2
4	0-4	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	C CONN server	aced Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	+0.3
5	1-4	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.2
6	2-4	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+0.2
7	2-5	STJOHN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Brooke Boyles	blk Hanley Schmidt, Breanna Ginley	+0.2
8	2-6	C CONN	C CONN×5	Attack err	Sumaiyya Harris		+0.3
9	2-7	C CONN	C CONN×5	Bad set	Amanda Caputi		+0.3
10	2-8	C CONN	C CONN×5	Ace	C CONN server	aced Team	+0.3
11	2-9	C CONN	C CONN×5	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
12	3-9	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Brooke Boyles	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
13	3-10	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
14	4-10	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Brooke Boyles	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
15	4-11	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
16	4-12	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Brooke Boyles	blk Anja Milosevic, Cullen Winter	+0.3
17	5-12	C CONN	STJOHN	Attack err	Cullen Winter	blk Kya Harris, Soheila Cirelli	+0.1
18	5-13	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Madison Fulgencio	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
19	6-13	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.1
20	6-14	STJOHN	C CONN	Attack err	Soheila Cirelli		+0.2
21	7-14	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.1
22	7-15	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.2
23	8-15	C CONN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.1
24	9-15	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Carola Tesoro, Teodora Stamenkovic	+0.2
25	10-15	STJOHN	STJOHN×3	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
26	10-16	STJOHN	C CONN	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.3
27	11-16	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
28	11-17	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
29	12-17	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Kendall White	set Amanda Caputi	+0.2
30	12-18	STJOHN	C CONN	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.3
31	13-18	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
32	14-18	STJOHN	STJOHN	Kill	Lejla Hadžiredžepovic	set Carola Tesoro	+0.3
33	14-19	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
34	15-19	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.2
35	15-20	STJOHN	C CONN	Serve err	STJOHN server		+0.3
36	16-20	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Teodora Stamenkovic	set Maggie Carcillo	+0.2
37	16-21	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.3
38	17-21	C CONN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Kendall White, Teodora Stamenkovic	+0.2
39	18-21	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+0.3
40	19-21	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+0.4
41	20-21	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Teodora Stamenkovic	+0.5
42	21-21	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Ace	STJOHN server	aced Meg Berkland	+0.6
43	22-21	STJOHN	STJOHN×6	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Rashanny Solano Smith	+0.5
44	22-22	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.4
45	23-22	C CONN	STJOHN	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.5
46	23-23	STJOHN	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.5
47	24-23	C CONN	STJOHN	Kill	Carola Tesoro	set Amanda Caputi	+0.6
48	25-23	STJOHN	STJOHN	Attack err	Madison Fulgencio		+0.6

Score shown after each rally, St. John's (NY) first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.