Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 30, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Cal St. Fullerton def. CSUN 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: CSUN 92.0% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 30, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Cal St. Fullerton beat visiting CSUN 3-2 (23-25, 16-25, 25-13, 25-21, 15-10) on Fri, Oct 30, 2026. Sofia Shine led Cal St. Fullerton with 16 kills; CSUN's Julia Bazylevych had a match-high 22.

Data through · final Oct 30

Set12345Sets
CSUN25251321102
CSFULL23162525153

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.400 on 35 swings: Sofia Shine and Cal St. Fullerton edged CSUN.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Cal St. Fullerton's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. CSUN went in at 92% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · CSUN 6–9 Cal St. Fullerton

    CSUN had 3 straight kills to erase a 6–9 deficit and tie it at 9. The match swung to CSUN.

    Cal St. Fullerton 66% → 36%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · CSUN 9–9 Cal St. Fullerton

    3 straight Cal St. Fullerton kills broke a 9–9 tie and made it 12–9. The match swung to Cal St. Fullerton.

    Cal St. Fullerton 36% → 79%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · CSUN 9–12 Cal St. Fullerton

    Cal St. Fullerton won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–10 and win the match 3–2.

    Cal St. Fullerton 79% → >99%

Cal St. Fullerton above 50CSUN belowMax swing 16.2%

CSUNCal St. Fullerton

Sideout %
CSUN 57.7·Cal St. Fullerton 63.8
Break %
CSUN 36.2·Cal St. Fullerton 42.3
Hitting
CSUN .199·Cal St. Fullerton .268
Longest run
CSUN 7·Cal St. Fullerton 5

Marisa Nakata
3 kills inside the turning points, 12 K and .375 for the match (13 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Cal St. Fullerton above 50 · CSUN below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+16.2% CSFULLrally 198 · set 5

Biggest swing: 16.2% to Cal St. Fullerton — set 5, CSUN 9-11 CSFULL. Kill by Marisa Nakata (set by Sibley Oster). CSFULL win probability 47% → 63%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CSUN 88.0%12.0% CSFULL

CSUN wins

3-0
41.2%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.1%

Cal St. Fullerton wins

3-0
1.7%
3-1
3.7%
3-2
6.6%
CSUN break %
47.6% vs this opp
CSFULL break %
38.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Marisa NakataKill+16.2%

    Kill by Marisa Nakata (set by Sibley Oster)

    Set 5 · CSUN 9-11 CSFULL · CSFULL 47% → 63%

  2. 02
    Marisa NakataKill+15.8%

    Kill by Marisa Nakata (set by Sibley Oster)

    Set 5 · CSUN 9-12 CSFULL · CSFULL 63% → 79%

  3. 03
    Bella RislingKill+13.3%

    Kill by Bella Risling (set by Sibley Oster)

    Set 5 · CSUN 10-13 CSFULL · CSFULL 71% → 84%

  4. 04
    Fallyn BlotzerKill+12.1%

    Kill by Fallyn Blotzer (set by Sibley Oster)

    Set 5 · CSUN 9-9 CSFULL · CSUN 52% → 64%

  5. 05
    Marisa NakataKill+11.5%

    Kill by Marisa Nakata (set by Italia Bernal)

    Set 5 · CSUN 10-14 CSFULL · CSFULL 84% → 96%

  6. 06
    Katie KolarKill+11.4%

    Kill by Katie Kolar (set by Suzie Ponce)

    Set 5 · CSUN 8-9 CSFULL · CSUN 41% → 52%

  7. 07
    Bella RislingKill+11.1%

    Kill by Bella Risling (set by Sibley Oster)

    Set 5 · CSUN 9-10 CSFULL · CSFULL 36% → 47%

  8. 08
    Marisa NakataKill+10.5%

    Kill by Marisa Nakata (set by Mia Feldhaus)

    Set 5 · CSUN 2-5 CSFULL · CSFULL 46% → 56%

Box score

Official NCAA box

CSUNaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
5221354.16700173010.522.5
514335.31430114004216
54212.16700050153.57.5
55111.36400210132.57.5
5318.25044011100214
48726.03803070010.511.5
5003.0002111400001
3000–000000000
23110.200001000003
2000–101500000
1102.500000000001
Team totals6028161.19950486432161094
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514233.3641005002115
512324.3751039010113
59420.2501003016413
55416.06310110031.56.5
54415.0001121311016
5002.0003610500001
516235.4000004102117
5012-.5006001320000
4217.14300020073.55.5
4103.3331411700002
2000–000000000
Team totals6321157.268613762432013104

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

CSUN vs Cal St. Fullerton

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 CSUN · CSFULL 5

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 3 CSUNCSFULL 3

Set 2

25-16

Longest run 7 CSUNCSFULL 4

Set 3

13-25

Longest run 2 CSUNCSFULL 5

Set 4

21-25

Longest run 4 CSUNCSFULL 4

Set 5

10-15

Longest run 3 CSUNCSFULL 3

Bars above the line = Cal St. Fullerton leads, below = CSUN leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

CSUN

SlotSideout %Break %
1
54%13/24
33%5/15
2
55%12/22
33%6/18
3
42%10/24
20%3/15
4
69%9/13
55%12/22
5
73%8/11
43%6/14
6
80%8/10
20%2/10
All
58%60/104
36%34/94

Cal St. Fullerton

SlotSideout %Break %
1
63%12/19
39%7/18
2
86%12/14
48%11/23
3
73%11/15
56%14/25
4
39%9/23
31%4/13
5
62%8/13
25%3/12
6
80%8/10
38%5/13
All
64%60/94
42%44/104

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

198 rallies

#CSUN-CSFULLSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CSFULLCSUNBlockedBella Rislingblk Iye Okolo+0.6
22-0CSUNCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.7
32-1CSUNCSFULLServe errCSUN+0.6
43-1CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.6
53-2CSUNCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+0.6
64-2CSFULLCSUNKillTatiana Turgeonset Sibley Oster+0.6
74-3CSUNCSFULLKillMarisa Nakataset Sibley Oster+0.6
85-3CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.6
95-4CSUNCSFULLAttack errJulia Bazylevych+0.7
106-4CSFULLCSUNKillKatie Kolar+0.6
116-5CSUNCSFULL×3Serve errCSUN+0.7
126-6CSFULLCSFULL×3AceSibley Osteraced Julia Bazylevych+1.0
136-7CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errFallyn Blotzer+1.2
147-7CSFULLCSUNKillIye Okoloset Katie Kolar+0.9
157-8CSUNCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+1.0
168-8CSFULLCSUNKillAudrey Nuckolsset Fallyn Blotzer+0.9
178-9CSUNCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+1.1
189-9CSFULLCSUNServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.9
199-10CSUNCSFULLAttack errJulia Bazylevych+1.1
2010-10CSFULLCSUNBlockedKaia Herwegblk Julia Bazylevych, Tatiana Turgeon+1.0
2110-11CSUNCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+1.2
2211-11CSFULLCSUN×3KillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+1.0
2312-11CSUNCSUN×3BlockedZariah Crosbyblk Tatiana Turgeon, Fallyn Blotzer+1.3
2413-11CSUNCSUN×3Attack errKaia Herweg+1.1
2513-12CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+0.9
2614-12CSFULLCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+0.9
2714-13CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+0.9
2815-13CSFULLCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+0.9
2915-14CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+1.0
3015-15CSFULLCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+1.6
3116-15CSFULLCSUNServe errCal St. Fullerton+1.2
3216-16CSUNCSFULL×3Attack errAudrey Nuckols+1.3
3316-17CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errTatiana Turgeon+2.1
3416-18CSFULLCSFULL×3Attack errAudrey Nuckols+2.4
3517-18CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+1.5
3617-19CSUNCSFULLServe errIye Okolo+2.0
3718-19CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+1.6
3818-20CSUNCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Sibley Oster+2.2
3919-20CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+1.7
4019-21CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+2.4
4120-21CSFULLCSUNAttack errSofia Shine+1.8
4221-21CSUNCSUNAttack errHannah Hass+2.8
4321-22CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+2.7
4422-22CSFULLCSUN×3KillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+2.4
4523-22CSUNCSUN×3KillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+3.4
4624-22CSUNCSUN×3KillAudrey Nuckols+2.8
4724-23CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+1.2
4825-23CSFULLCSUNKillAudrey Nuckolsset Katie Kolar+2.5
Set 2
11-0CSUNCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+0.5
22-0CSUNCSUNAttack errKaia Herweg+0.5
32-1CSUNCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+0.4
43-1CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.4
53-2CSUNCSFULLKillKaia Herwegset Mia Feldhaus+0.4
64-2CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.4
75-2CSUNCSUNKillAudrey Nuckolsset Fallyn Blotzer+0.4
85-3CSUNCSFULLServe errIye Okolo+0.3
96-3CSFULLCSUN×3KillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.3
107-3CSUNCSUN×3KillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.4
118-3CSUNCSUN×3KillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.3
128-4CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+0.2
138-5CSFULLCSFULLBlockedTatiana Turgeonblk Sofia Shine, Hannah Hass+0.4
149-5CSFULLCSUN×4KillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.3
1510-5CSUNCSUN×4Bad setItalia Bernal+0.3
1611-5CSUNCSUN×4Attack errSofia Shine+0.2
1712-5CSUNCSUN×4Attack errHannah Hass+0.2
1812-6CSUNCSFULLKillItalia Bernal+0.1
1913-6CSFULLCSUNKillTatiana Turgeonset Katie Kolar+0.1
2013-7CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+0.1
2114-7CSFULLCSUNKillIye Okoloset Katie Kolar+0.1
2214-8CSUNCSFULL×4Serve errKatie Kolar+0.1
2314-9CSFULLCSFULL×4KillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+0.2
2414-10CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedFallyn Blotzerblk Kaia Herweg+0.3
2514-11CSFULLCSFULL×4KillKaia Herwegset Hannah Hass+0.4
2615-11CSFULLCSUNKillAudrey Nuckolsset Raegan Richardson+0.4
2715-12CSUNCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.3
2816-12CSFULLCSUNBlockedKaia Herwegblk Iye Okolo, Audrey Nuckols+0.4
2917-12CSUNCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.4
3017-13CSUNCSFULLBlockedJulia Bazylevychblk Zariah Crosby, Neeva Gaine+0.2
3117-14CSFULLCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Mia Feldhaus+0.4
3218-14CSFULLCSUN×7Serve errCal St. Fullerton+0.4
3319-14CSUNCSUN×7AceAudrey Nuckolsaced Mia Feldhaus+0.4
3420-14CSUNCSUN×7AceAudrey Nuckolsaced Mia Feldhaus+0.2
3521-14CSUNCSUN×7Attack errZariah Crosby+0.1
3622-14CSUNCSUN×7AceAudrey Nuckolsaced Kaia Herweg·
3723-14CSUNCSUN×7KillJulia Bazylevych·
3824-14CSUNCSUN×7Attack errMia Feldhaus·
3924-15CSUNCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Italia Bernal·
4024-16CSFULLCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Italia Bernal·
4125-16CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar·
Set 3
10-1CSFULLCSFULLKillMarisa Nakataset Bella Risling+0.3
21-1CSFULLCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+0.2
32-1CSUNCSUNAttack errHannah Hass+0.3
42-2CSUNCSFULL×4KillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+0.2
52-3CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedIye Okoloblk Zariah Crosby+0.3
62-4CSFULLCSFULL×4KillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.4
72-5CSFULLCSFULL×4Attack errJulia Bazylevych+0.4
83-5CSFULLCSUNKillAudrey Nuckolsset Fallyn Blotzer+0.3
93-6CSUNCSFULL×5KillMarisa Nakataset Zariah Crosby+0.3
103-7CSFULLCSFULL×5Attack errTatiana Turgeon+0.5
113-8CSFULLCSFULL×5BlockedJulia Bazylevychblk Zariah Crosby, Neeva Gaine+0.5
123-9CSFULLCSFULL×5KillMarisa Nakataset Italia Bernal+0.5
133-10CSFULLCSFULL×5BlockedJulia Bazylevychblk Zariah Crosby, Neeva Gaine+0.4
144-10CSFULLCSUNServe errCal St. Fullerton+0.2
155-10CSUNCSUNBlockedMarisa Nakatablk Tatiana Turgeon, Katie Kolar+0.4
165-11CSUNCSFULLAttack errJulia Bazylevych+0.4
176-11CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+0.3
187-11CSUNCSUNKillKatie Kolarset Katie Kolar+0.4
197-12CSUNCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Italia Bernal+0.4
208-12CSFULLCSUNBlockedHannah Hassblk Tatiana Turgeon, Fallyn Blotzer+0.3
219-12CSUNCSUNAceRaegan Richardsonaced Sofia Shine+0.4
229-13CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+0.4
2310-13CSFULLCSUNKillIye Okoloset Katie Kolar+0.3
2410-14CSUNCSFULL×5KillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+0.5
2510-15CSFULLCSFULL×5KillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+0.6
2610-16CSFULLCSFULL×5Attack errAudrey Nuckols+0.5
2710-17CSFULLCSFULL×5KillKaia Herwegset Marisa Nakata+0.4
2810-18CSFULLCSFULL×5AceKaia Herwegaced Julia Bazylevych+0.3
2911-18CSFULLCSUNServe errKaia Herweg+0.1
3011-19CSUNCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Mia Feldhaus+0.2
3112-19CSFULLCSUNAttack errZariah Crosby+0.1
3212-20CSUNCSFULL×4KillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+0.2
3312-21CSFULLCSFULL×4Attack errAudrey Nuckols+0.1
3412-22CSFULLCSFULL×4Attack errJulia Bazylevych+0.1
3512-23CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedAudrey Nuckolsblk Marisa Nakata·
3613-23CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar·
3713-24CSUNCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Italia Bernal·
3813-25CSFULLCSFULLKillNeeva Gaineset Italia Bernal·
Set 4
10-1CSUNCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+1.1
20-2CSFULLCSFULLBlockedJulia Bazylevychblk Zariah Crosby, Bella Risling+1.6
31-2CSFULLCSUNBad setSibley Oster+1.1
42-2CSUNCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+1.4
52-3CSUNCSFULL×4KillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+1.2
62-4CSFULLCSFULL×4BlockedJulia Bazylevychblk Zariah Crosby, Neeva Gaine+1.7
72-5CSFULLCSFULL×4Attack errAudrey Nuckols+1.9
82-6CSFULLCSFULL×4Attack errJulia Bazylevych+2.0
93-6CSFULLCSUNKillAudrey Nuckolsset Katie Kolar+1.3
103-7CSUNCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Italia Bernal+1.7
113-8CSFULLCSFULLAttack errKatie Kolar+2.2
124-8CSFULLCSUN×4Serve errCal St. Fullerton+1.3
135-8CSUNCSUN×4BlockedNeeva Gaineblk Fallyn Blotzer, Iye Okolo+1.8
146-8CSUNCSUN×4KillAudrey Nuckolsset Katie Kolar+1.9
157-8CSUNCSUN×4KillFallyn Blotzerset Raegan Richardson+1.8
167-9CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+1.6
177-10CSFULLCSFULLBlockedFallyn Blotzerblk Hannah Hass, Neeva Gaine+2.3
188-10CSFULLCSUNKillIye Okoloset Katie Kolar+1.5
198-11CSUNCSFULL×3KillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+1.9
208-12CSFULLCSFULL×3Serve errCal St. Fullerton+2.5
218-13CSFULLCSFULL×3KillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+2.4
229-13CSFULLCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+1.4
239-14CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+2.0
2410-14CSFULLCSUNBlockedMarisa Nakatablk Fallyn Blotzer, Tatiana Turgeon+1.4
2510-15CSUNCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+2.0
2611-15CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+1.4
2711-16CSUNCSFULLAttack errAudrey Nuckols+2.0
2812-16CSFULLCSUNServe errCal St. Fullerton+1.4
2913-16CSUNCSUNBlockedMarisa Nakatablk Iye Okolo, Katie Kolar+2.2
3013-17CSUNCSFULLKillMarisa Nakataset Mia Feldhaus+2.3
3114-17CSFULLCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+1.6
3214-18CSUNCSFULLServe errJulia Bazylevych+2.4
3315-18CSFULLCSUNKillIye Okoloset Katie Kolar+1.6
3415-19CSUNCSFULLBlockedJulia Bazylevychblk Sofia Shine, Neeva Gaine+2.5
3515-20CSFULLCSFULLBlockedHailey Brockwayblk Hannah Hass, Bella Risling+2.7
3616-20CSFULLCSUNKillTatiana Turgeonset Katie Kolar+1.2
3716-21CSUNCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+2.1
3817-21CSFULLCSUNKillAnnie Gilmoreset Katie Kolar+1.1
3918-21CSUNCSUNAttack errBella Risling+2.1
4018-22CSUNCSFULLKillHannah Hassset Sibley Oster+2.6
4119-22CSFULLCSUNBlockedZariah Crosbyblk Tatiana Turgeon+1.4
4220-22CSUNCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+2.8
4320-23CSUNCSFULLKillMarisa Nakataset Sibley Oster+3.6
4421-23CSFULLCSUNKillJulia Bazylevychset Katie Kolar+1.9
4521-24CSUNCSFULLKillMarisa Nakataset Mia Feldhaus+3.8
4621-25CSFULLCSFULLBlockedJulia Bazylevychblk Zariah Crosby, Neeva Gaine+1.5
Set 5
10-1CSFULLCSFULLKillBella Rislingset Kaia Herweg+7.8
21-1CSFULLCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Katie Kolar+5.4
31-2CSUNCSFULLServe errSuzie Ponce+6.4
42-2CSFULLCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+5.7
52-3CSUNCSFULL×3KillZariah Crosbyset Sibley Oster+6.7
62-4CSFULLCSFULL×3KillMarisa Nakataset Mia Feldhaus+9.8
72-5CSFULLCSFULL×3KillMarisa Nakataset Mia Feldhaus+10.5
83-5CSFULLCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Katie Kolar+6.5
93-6CSUNCSFULLServe errHailey Brockway+8.7
104-6CSFULLCSUNKillTatiana Turgeonset Katie Kolar+6.7
114-7CSUNCSFULLKillZariah Crosbyset Italia Bernal+9.1
125-7CSFULLCSUNKillHailey Brockwayset Katie Kolar+6.9
135-8CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Italia Bernal+9.6
146-8CSFULLCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+7.2
156-9CSUNCSFULLKillSofia Shineset Sibley Oster+10.2
167-9CSFULLCSUN×3KillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+7.4
178-9CSUNCSUN×3KillKatie Kolarset Suzie Ponce+11.4
189-9CSUNCSUN×3KillFallyn Blotzerset Sibley Oster+12.1
199-10CSUNCSFULL×3KillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+11.1
209-11CSFULLCSFULL×3KillMarisa Nakataset Sibley Oster+16.2
219-12CSFULLCSFULL×3KillMarisa Nakataset Sibley Oster+15.8
2210-12CSFULLCSUNKillFallyn Blotzerset Katie Kolar+7.6
2310-13CSUNCSFULL×3KillBella Rislingset Sibley Oster+13.3
2410-14CSFULLCSFULL×3KillMarisa Nakataset Italia Bernal+11.5
2510-15CSFULLCSFULL×3AceItalia Bernalaced Julia Bazylevych+4.2

Score shown after each rally, CSUN first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).