FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwaySOUTHLAND

0:3

HomeBIG-WEST

CSU Bakersfield def. Lamar University 3–0

(27-25, 25-19, 25-21)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
LAMAR	25	19	21	0
CSUBAK	27	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CSUBAK above 50 · LAMAR below

Biggest swing: 8.3% to CSU Bakersfield — set 1, LAMAR 24-24 CSUBAK. Attack error by Kinley Elms. CSUBAK win probability 68% → 76%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

LAMAR 19.7%80.3% CSUBAK

Lamar University wins

3-0

3.2%

3-1

6.5%

3-2

10.0%

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0

31.8%

3-1

30.3%

3-2

18.2%

LAMAR break %: 40.3% vs this opp
CSUBAK break %: 46.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Kinley ElmsAttack error+8.3%
Attack error by Kinley Elms
Set 1 · LAMAR 24-24 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 68% → 76%
02
Suelen LimaKill+7.1%
Kill by Suelen Lima (set by Luiza Da Cruz)
Set 1 · LAMAR 24-25 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 76% → 84%
03
Ana Franca BenjaminKill+6.1%
Kill by Ana Franca Benjamin (set by Maja Malinowska)
Set 1 · LAMAR 25-27 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 84% → 90%
04
Grace HillKill+5.4%
Kill by Grace Hill (set by Alexa Gonzalez)
Set 1 · LAMAR 25-25 CSUBAK · LAMAR 16% → 22%
05
LAMAR serverService error+5.4%
Lamar University service error
Set 1 · LAMAR 25-26 CSUBAK · CSUBAK 78% → 84%
06
Maja MalinowskaKill+5.3%
Kill by Maja Malinowska (set by Alexa Gonzalez)
Set 1 · LAMAR 24-22 CSUBAK · LAMAR 30% → 35%
07
Jordyn Waite-WardAttack error+4.9%
Jordyn Waite-Ward stuffed by Nisaan Martinez & Saida Maksoud
Set 1 · LAMAR 22-20 CSUBAK · LAMAR 26% → 31%
08
Nisaan MartinezKill+4.4%
Kill by Nisaan Martinez (set by Katelyn Hughes)
Set 1 · LAMAR 23-21 CSUBAK · LAMAR 28% → 33%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Lamar Universityaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Maja MalinowskaOH	3	13	7	29	.207	1	0	0	11	1	0	0	13
9Kinley ElmsOPP	3	5	3	16	.125	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5
30Saida MaksoudMB	3	3	1	8	.250	0	0	4	0	0	3	1.5	4.5
7Riley JohnsonMB	3	1	2	6	-.167	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
3Alexa GonzalezS	3	0	0	0	–	18	0	1	4	0	0	0	0
12Grace HillOH	2	9	7	23	.087	0	0	1	6	1	1	0.5	9.5
23Nisaan MartinezMB	3	5	3	14	.143	0	0	0	2	0	3	1.5	6.5
1Katelyn HughesS	3	0	0	1	.000	15	2	2	3	0	0	0	2
22Madelynn CoyOH	2	1	2	10	-.100	0	0	2	6	0	1	0.5	1.5
19Gabby BakerL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	5	2	0	0	0
20Kiana SouzaL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0
Team totals		37	25	107	.112	36	2	10	44	6	10	5	65

CSU Bakersfieldhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Suelen LimaOH	3	9	1	24	.333	1	1	2	8	1	3	1.5	11.5
6Anna BacchinOH	3	7	3	18	.222	0	1	1	3	1	2	1	9
14Defne YanikMB	3	6	3	12	.250	1	0	0	0	0	4	2	8
20Jordyn Waite-WardMB	3	4	2	10	.200	0	1	3	1	0	3	1.5	6.5
1Luiza Da CruzS	3	0	0	2	.000	13	3	0	7	0	0	0	3
3Ana Franca BenjaminOH	2	3	1	10	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
19Leylah DuranMB	3	3	4	10	-.100	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
5Analiese GaglianoL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
15Samantha CapinpinS	3	0	0	0	–	16	0	2	5	0	0	0	0
9Nele BroszatMB	2	2	0	9	.222	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3
18Reese JacksonMB	2	1	1	7	.000	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2
11Boden LiljedahlL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Taly AcherboimL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		35	15	102	.196	33	6	8	38	2	18	9	77

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 LAMAR · CSUBAK 4

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 3 LAMARCSUBAK 4

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 LAMARCSUBAK 4

Set 3

21-25

Longest run 4 LAMARCSUBAK 4

Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = Lamar University leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Lamar University

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	32%8/25	42%5/12
2	78%7/9	0%0/8
3	58%7/12	42%5/12
4	58%7/12	46%6/13
5	70%7/10	36%4/11
6	75%6/8	30%3/10
All	55%42/76	35%23/66

CSU Bakersfield

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	80%8/10	65%13/20
2	70%7/10	50%7/14
3	50%7/14	22%2/9
4	70%7/10	46%6/13
5	64%7/11	30%3/10
6	64%7/11	30%3/10
All	65%43/66	45%34/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

142 rallies

Rally log

#	LAMAR-CSUBAK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Kinley Elms		+1.6
2	0-2	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Ace	CSUBAK server	aced Grace Hill	+1.5
3	0-3	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Alexa Gonzalez	+1.3
4	0-4	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Ace	CSUBAK server	aced Maja Malinowska	+1.2
5	1-4	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Attack err	Anna Bacchin		+0.9
6	1-5	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.9
7	2-5	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Grace Hill	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.9
8	2-6	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.9
9	3-6	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Grace Hill	set Katelyn Hughes	+0.9
10	4-6	LAMAR	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Katelyn Hughes	+1.4
11	4-7	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Grace Hill		+1.1
12	5-7	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+1.1
13	5-8	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Maja Malinowska	blk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Suelen Lima	+1.1
14	6-8	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+1.1
15	6-9	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.2
16	7-9	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Alexa Gonzalez	+1.2
17	7-10	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.2
18	8-10	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Kinley Elms	set Alexa Gonzalez	+1.2
19	8-11	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Luiza Da Cruz	+1.2
20	9-11	CSUBAK	LAMAR×3	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+1.2
21	10-11	LAMAR	LAMAR×3	Attack err	Leylah Duran		+1.9
22	11-11	LAMAR	LAMAR×3	Ace	LAMAR server	aced Anna Bacchin	+2.2
23	11-12	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Serve err	LAMAR server		+1.7
24	11-13	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Analiese Gagliano	+2.1
25	12-13	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Grace Hill	set Katelyn Hughes	+1.6
26	13-13	LAMAR	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Katelyn Hughes	+2.4
27	13-14	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Serve err	LAMAR server		+1.9
28	14-14	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Katelyn Hughes	+2.0
29	14-15	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.0
30	15-15	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+2.1
31	16-15	LAMAR	LAMAR	Attack err	Jordyn Waite-Ward		+3.1
32	16-16	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Grace Hill		+2.2
33	17-16	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+2.6
34	17-17	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.4
35	18-17	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Saida Maksoud	set Alexa Gonzalez	+2.7
36	18-18	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Maja Malinowska		+2.5
37	19-18	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Attack err	Anna Bacchin		+3.0
38	19-19	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Ana Franca Benjamin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+2.7
39	20-19	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Grace Hill	set Katelyn Hughes	+3.2
40	20-20	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Luiza Da Cruz	+3.0
41	21-20	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Katelyn Hughes	+3.6
42	22-20	LAMAR	LAMAR	Attack err	Jordyn Waite-Ward	blk Nisaan Martinez, Saida Maksoud	+4.9
43	22-21	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.9
44	23-21	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Nisaan Martinez	set Katelyn Hughes	+4.4
45	23-22	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Grace Hill		+3.1
46	24-22	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Alexa Gonzalez	+5.3
47	24-23	LAMAR	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Samantha Capinpin	+2.9
48	24-24	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Kinley Elms		+8.3
49	24-25	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+7.1
50	25-25	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Grace Hill	set Alexa Gonzalez	+5.4
51	25-26	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Serve err	LAMAR server		+5.4
52	25-27	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Ana Franca Benjamin	set Maja Malinowska	+6.1
Set 2
1	0-1	LAMAR	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.9
2	0-2	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Grace Hill		+1.1
3	0-3	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Ace	CSUBAK server	aced Gabby Baker	+1.0
4	1-3	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.8
5	1-4	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Kinley Elms		+0.8
6	2-4	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Kinley Elms	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.8
7	2-5	LAMAR	CSUBAK×3	Serve err	LAMAR server		+0.8
8	2-6	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Maja Malinowska		+0.9
9	2-7	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Jordyn Waite-Ward	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.8
10	3-7	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Grace Hill	set Gabby Baker	+0.5
11	4-7	LAMAR	LAMAR	Attack err	Leylah Duran	blk Grace Hill, Riley Johnson	+0.9
12	4-8	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Grace Hill	blk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Leylah Duran	+0.7
13	4-9	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Grace Hill		+0.8
14	5-9	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Attack err	Leylah Duran		+0.5
15	5-10	LAMAR	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.6
16	5-11	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Suelen Lima	+0.6
17	5-12	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Ace	CSUBAK server	aced Team	+0.5
18	6-12	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+0.3
19	6-13	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.3
20	7-13	CSUBAK	LAMAR×3	Kill	Nisaan Martinez	set Katelyn Hughes	+0.3
21	8-13	LAMAR	LAMAR×3	Kill	Saida Maksoud	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.5
22	9-13	LAMAR	LAMAR×3	Attack err	Reese Jackson		+0.7
23	9-14	LAMAR	CSUBAK×4	Serve err	LAMAR server		+0.6
24	9-15	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.6
25	9-16	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Bad set	Alexa Gonzalez		+0.4
26	9-17	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Grace Hill	+0.3
27	10-17	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.1
28	10-18	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.2
29	11-18	CSUBAK	LAMAR×3	Kill	Grace Hill	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.1
30	12-18	LAMAR	LAMAR×3	Kill	Kinley Elms	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.3
31	13-18	LAMAR	LAMAR×3	Kill	Grace Hill	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.4
32	13-19	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Serve err	LAMAR server		+0.4
33	13-20	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Grace Hill		+0.3
34	14-20	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Grace Hill	set Maja Malinowska	+0.1
35	14-21	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.2
36	14-22	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Ace	CSUBAK server	aced Gabby Baker	+0.1
37	15-22	CSUBAK	LAMAR×3	Attack err	Anna Bacchin	blk Nisaan Martinez, Riley Johnson	+0.0
38	16-22	LAMAR	LAMAR×3	Attack err	Leylah Duran		+0.1
39	17-22	LAMAR	LAMAR×3	Kill	Nisaan Martinez	set Gabby Baker	+0.2
40	17-23	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Serve err	LAMAR server		+0.3
41	18-23	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+0.1
42	19-23	LAMAR	LAMAR	Attack err	Defne Yanik	blk Saida Maksoud, Nisaan Martinez	+0.3
43	19-24	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.4
44	19-25	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Nisaan Martinez	blk Anna Bacchin, Defne Yanik	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Nisaan Martinez	set Katelyn Hughes	+0.5
2	1-1	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Maja Malinowska		+0.5
3	2-1	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.5
4	3-1	LAMAR	LAMAR	Attack err	Suelen Lima		+0.8
5	3-2	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Nele Broszat	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.5
6	3-3	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Riley Johnson	blk Defne Yanik, Suelen Lima	+0.7
7	4-3	CSUBAK	LAMAR×4	Kill	Kinley Elms	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.6
8	5-3	LAMAR	LAMAR×4	Attack err	Defne Yanik	blk Saida Maksoud, Madelynn Coy	+0.8
9	6-3	LAMAR	LAMAR×4	Attack err	Ana Franca Benjamin		+0.8
10	7-3	LAMAR	LAMAR×4	Bad set	Luiza Da Cruz		+0.8
11	7-4	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Attack err	Madelynn Coy		+0.5
12	7-5	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Leylah Duran	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.8
13	8-5	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Serve err	CSUBAK server		+0.7
14	9-5	LAMAR	LAMAR	Ace	LAMAR server	aced Suelen Lima	+0.9
15	9-6	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.6
16	10-6	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Saida Maksoud	set Katelyn Hughes	+0.7
17	11-6	LAMAR	LAMAR	Attack err	Defne Yanik		+0.9
18	11-7	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Serve err	LAMAR server		+0.5
19	12-7	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Katelyn Hughes	+0.7
20	12-8	LAMAR	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Nisaan Martinez		+0.5
21	12-9	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Nisaan Martinez	blk Ana Franca Benjamin, Nele Broszat	+0.8
22	12-10	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Maja Malinowska		+0.9
23	12-11	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Nele Broszat	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.9
24	13-11	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Bad set	Luiza Da Cruz		+0.8
25	13-12	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Anna Bacchin	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.7
26	13-13	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Riley Johnson		+1.0
27	14-13	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.8
28	14-14	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Luiza Da Cruz	+0.8
29	15-14	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Madelynn Coy	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.9
30	15-15	LAMAR	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Madelynn Coy	blk Suelen Lima, Defne Yanik	+0.8
31	15-16	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Kill	Suelen Lima	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.0
32	15-17	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×3	Attack err	Saida Maksoud	blk Defne Yanik, Reese Jackson	+1.0
33	16-17	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Kill	Kinley Elms	set Alexa Gonzalez	+0.7
34	16-18	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Serve err	LAMAR server		+0.8
35	16-19	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Kill	Reese Jackson	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.8
36	17-19	CSUBAK	LAMAR	Bad set	Samantha Capinpin		+0.6
37	17-20	LAMAR	CSUBAK	Kill	Defne Yanik	set Samantha Capinpin	+0.7
38	17-21	CSUBAK	CSUBAK	Attack err	Maja Malinowska	blk Reese Jackson, Nele Broszat	+0.6
39	18-21	CSUBAK	LAMAR×4	Kill	Nisaan Martinez	set Katelyn Hughes	+0.3
40	19-21	LAMAR	LAMAR×4	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Katelyn Hughes	+0.7
41	20-21	LAMAR	LAMAR×4	Kill	Riley Johnson	set Samantha Capinpin	+1.1
42	21-21	LAMAR	LAMAR×4	Kill	Maja Malinowska	set Katelyn Hughes	+1.6
43	21-22	LAMAR	CSUBAK×4	Serve err	LAMAR server		+1.4
44	21-23	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Kill	Ana Franca Benjamin	set Analiese Gagliano	+1.6
45	21-24	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Ace	CSUBAK server	aced Kiana Souza	+1.0
46	21-25	CSUBAK	CSUBAK×4	Attack err	Maja Malinowska	blk Jordyn Waite-Ward, Anna Bacchin	+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Lamar University first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.