CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 17, 2026
3:1

Portland def. CSU Bakersfield 31

(25-17, 25-19, 19-25, 25-17)
Set123*4Sets
PORT252519253
CSUBAK171925171
  • * Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

CSUBAK above 50 · PORT below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100CSUBAKPORTBiggest swing +3.5% PORT · S2 17-15rally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.5% to Portland — set 2, PORT 17-15 CSUBAK. Portland ace on Suelen Lima. CSUBAK win probability 21%18%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PORT 59.9%40.1% CSUBAK

Portland wins

3-0
17.2%
3-1
22.9%
3-2
19.9%

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0
8.8%
3-1
14.6%
3-2
16.7%
PORT break %
42.1% vs this opp
CSUBAK break %
40.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    PORT serverAce+3.5%

    Portland ace on Suelen Lima

    Set 2 · PORT 17-15 CSUBAK · PORT 79%82%

  2. 02
    Maui RobinsKill+3.4%

    Kill by Maui Robins (set by Havannah Hoeft)

    Set 2 · PORT 15-14 CSUBAK · PORT 75%79%

  3. 03
    Jordyn Waite-WardAttack error+3.3%

    Attack error by Jordyn Waite-Ward

    Set 2 · PORT 20-17 CSUBAK · PORT 83%86%

  4. 04
    Taina KaauwaiKill+3.2%

    Kill by Taina Kaauwai (set by Havannah Hoeft)

    Set 4 · PORT 3-2 CSUBAK · PORT 79%82%

  5. 05
    Maui RobinsKill+3.2%

    Kill by Maui Robins

    Set 2 · PORT 13-13 CSUBAK · PORT 72%75%

  6. 06

    Kill by Eliot Diehl Palmer (set by Luiza Da Cruz)

    Set 4 · PORT 4-2 CSUBAK · PORT 82%85%

  7. 07

    Kill by Havannah Hoeft (set by Defne Yanik)

    Set 4 · PORT 6-3 CSUBAK · PORT 85%88%

  8. 08
    Jordyn Waite-WardAttack error+2.9%

    Attack error by Jordyn Waite-Ward

    Set 2 · PORT 12-13 CSUBAK · PORT 69%72%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416530.367222132010.518.5
411115.6672101102113
48237.16212270111.511.5
49220.3501015002110
43411-.09100000132.55.5
4305.6003704701014
4000025920002
4000001100000
3000000500000
1216.16720020010.52.5
1000000000000
Team totals5215124.29845715508310894
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411737.10802274111.514.5
46214.286010100007
45010.500000101016
44519-.053001100004
4001.000011700001
40001401700000
411830.1001000010112
4003.0003311310003
4001.0001313710001
3013-.33300000010.50.5
2024-.500000200000
12021.000000000002
1000500001011
1000000000000
Team totals3925124.113368946742578

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 PORT · CSUBAK 5

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 PORTCSUBAK 4

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 PORTCSUBAK 3

Set 3*

19-25

Longest run 2 PORTCSUBAK 5

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 3 PORTCSUBAK 3

Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = Portland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Portland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
43%6/14
2
80%8/10
43%6/14
3
67%6/9
57%8/14
4
86%6/7
25%2/8
5
86%6/7
57%8/14
6
67%6/9
40%4/10
All
76%41/54
46%34/74

CSU Bakersfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
0%0/7
2
53%8/15
27%3/11
3
55%6/11
33%4/12
4
46%6/13
14%1/7
5
67%6/9
14%1/7
6
50%6/12
40%4/10
All
54%40/74
24%13/54

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

172 rallies

Rally log

#PORT-CSUBAKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CSUBAKPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+1.7
22-0PORTPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Eliot Diehl Palmer+2.4
32-1PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+1.6
43-1CSUBAKPORT×3KillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+1.7
54-1PORTPORT×3Attack errSuelen Lima+2.3
65-1PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.1
75-2PORTCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+1.3
85-3CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errTaina Kaauwai+2.2
96-3CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.7
106-4PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+1.6
117-4CSUBAKPORT×5KillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.7
128-4PORTPORT×5AcePORT serveraced Suelen Lima+2.2
139-4PORTPORT×5Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+1.9
1410-4PORTPORT×5Attack errSuelen Lima+1.5
1511-4PORTPORT×5KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.2
1611-5PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+0.6
1712-5CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+0.8
1812-6PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+0.6
1913-6CSUBAKPORT×3KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.8
2014-6PORTPORT×3Attack errSuelen Lima+0.8
2115-6PORTPORT×3Attack errSuelen Lima+0.5
2215-7PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Ella Pallagi+0.2
2316-7CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.3
2416-8PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Ella Pallagi+0.2
2517-8CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+0.3
2618-8PORTPORTAcePORT serveraced Luiza Da Cruz+0.2
2718-9PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+0.1
2818-10CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errMaui Robinsblk Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.2
2919-10CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+0.2
3019-11PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi+0.1
3120-11CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+0.2
3221-11PORTPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Analiese Gagliano+0.1
3321-12PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Ella Pallagi+0.0
3422-12CSUBAKPORTAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+0.1
3522-13PORTCSUBAK×4KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi+0.0
3622-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errShaylee Stephenblk Ella Pallagi+0.1
3722-15CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errMaui Robins+0.1
3822-16CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSUBAK serveraced Maui Robins+0.2
3923-16CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.3
4023-17PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+0.1
4124-17CSUBAKPORTAttack errAnna Bacchin+0.2
4225-17PORTPORTAcePORT serveraced Suelen Lima+0.0
Set 2
10-1PORTCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+1.6
20-2CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errKalaweloilehua Chockblk Suelen Lima+2.3
30-3CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+2.3
41-3CSUBAKPORTAttack errSuelen Limablk Kalaweloilehua Chock+1.5
51-4PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+1.7
62-4CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
72-5PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+1.7
83-5CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Taina Kaauwai+1.5
93-6PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.7
103-7CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSUBAK serveraced Taina Kaauwai+2.3
114-7CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
124-8PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+1.7
134-9CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSUBAK serveraced Team+2.1
145-9CSUBAKPORT×4Attack errAnna Bacchin+1.2
156-9PORTPORT×4AcePORT serveraced Suelen Lima+2.1
167-9PORTPORT×4Attack errNele Broszatblk Kalaweloilehua Chock, Shaylee Stephen+2.4
178-9PORTPORT×4Attack errAnna Bacchinblk Shaylee Stephen+2.6
188-10PORTCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Samantha Capinpin+2.0
199-10CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Maui Robins+1.9
209-11PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+2.1
219-12CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errEliot Diehl Palmer+2.8
2210-12CSUBAKPORTServe errCSUBAK server+1.8
2310-13PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Havannah Hoeft+2.1
2411-13CSUBAKPORT×3KillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
2512-13PORTPORT×3Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+2.9
2613-13PORTPORT×3KillMaui Robins+3.2
2713-14PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+2.4
2814-14CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
2915-14PORTPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+3.4
3015-15PORTCSUBAKKillReese Jacksonset Samantha Capinpin+2.4
3116-15CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
3217-15PORTPORTAcePORT serveraced Suelen Lima+3.5
3317-16PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+2.2
3418-16CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
3518-17PORTCSUBAKKillReese Jacksonset Samantha Capinpin+2.3
3619-17CSUBAKPORT×3Serve errCSUBAK server+2.7
3720-17PORTPORT×3Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+3.3
3821-17PORTPORT×3Attack errJordyn Waite-Wardblk Taina Kaauwai, Shaylee Stephen+2.4
3921-18PORTCSUBAKAttack errEliot Diehl Palmer+1.1
4022-18CSUBAKPORTAttack errAna Franca Benjamin+1.7
4123-18PORTPORTAttack errAna Franca Benjamin+1.3
4223-19PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
4324-19CSUBAKPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Taina Kaauwai+0.7
4425-19PORTPORTAttack errJordyn Waite-Wardblk Taina Kaauwai, Maui Robins+0.2
Set 3
10-1CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errKalaweloilehua Chock+1.4
21-1CSUBAKPORTServe errCSUBAK server+1.0
31-2PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+1.0
42-2CSUBAKPORTServe errCSUBAK server+1.0
53-2PORTPORTAcePORT serveraced Team+1.4
63-3PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+1.0
74-3CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.0
84-4PORTCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+1.0
95-4CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
105-5PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Analiese Gagliano+1.1
116-5CSUBAKPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Kalaweloilehua Chock+1.1
126-6PORTCSUBAK×4KillSuelen Limaset Jordyn Waite-Ward+1.1
136-7CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errShaylee Stephenblk Nele Broszat, Suelen Lima+1.6
146-8CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSUBAK serveraced Team+1.7
156-9CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSUBAK serveraced Jeryn Hildenbrand+1.6
167-9CSUBAKPORTAttack errSuelen Limablk Havannah Hoeft+1.0
177-10PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+1.2
188-10CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.0
199-10PORTPORTAttack errSuelen Lima+1.7
209-11PORTCSUBAK×3KillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+1.3
219-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+1.8
229-13CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSUBAK serveraced Team+1.6
2310-13CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
2410-14PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+1.2
2511-14CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
2612-14PORTPORTAttack errLeylah Duran+1.6
2712-15PORTCSUBAKAttack errMaui Robins+1.4
2813-15CSUBAKPORTServe errCSUBAK server+1.2
2913-16PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+1.4
3014-16CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.2
3114-17PORTCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+1.5
3214-18CSUBAKCSUBAK×5Attack errShaylee Stephen+1.8
3314-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+1.4
3414-20CSUBAKCSUBAK×5AceCSUBAK serveraced Maui Robins+0.9
3514-21CSUBAKCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Analiese Gagliano+0.5
3615-21CSUBAKPORTServe errCSUBAK server+0.2
3716-21PORTPORTBad setSamantha Capinpin+0.4
3816-22PORTCSUBAKFeed gapPlaceholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.+0.5
3916-23CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSUBAK serveraced Jeryn Hildenbrand+0.3
4017-23CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.1
4118-23PORTPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+0.2
4218-24PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
4319-24CSUBAKPORTServe errCSUBAK server+0.1
4419-25PORTCSUBAKBad setHavannah Hoeft+0.1
Set 4
10-1PORTCSUBAKAttack errShaylee Stephen+2.2
21-1CSUBAKPORTAttack errAnna Bacchin+2.2
31-2PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+2.3
42-2CSUBAKPORT×3KillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+2.2
53-2PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+3.2
64-2PORTPORT×3KillEliot Diehl Palmerset Luiza Da Cruz+3.1
74-3PORTCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+2.1
85-3CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+2.2
96-3PORTPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Defne Yanik+3.0
106-4PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+1.9
117-4CSUBAKPORT×3Serve errCSUBAK server+2.1
128-4PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.7
139-4PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
149-5PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.4
1510-5CSUBAKPORTAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+1.6
1610-6PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.4
1711-6CSUBAKPORTKillNevaeh Brayset Havannah Hoeft+1.7
1811-7PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+1.4
1912-7CSUBAKPORT×3KillEliot Diehl Palmerset Nevaeh Bray+1.7
2013-7PORTPORT×3Attack errAnna Bacchinblk Nevaeh Bray, Eliot Diehl Palmer+1.9
2114-7PORTPORT×3AcePORT serveraced Analiese Gagliano+1.4
2214-8PORTCSUBAKAttack errMaui Robins+0.7
2315-8CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
2415-9PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+0.7
2515-10CSUBAKCSUBAKKillDefne Yanik+1.4
2616-10CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.3
2716-11PORTCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+0.9
2817-11CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.2
2917-12PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Analiese Gagliano+0.9
3018-12CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.2
3119-12PORTPORTAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+1.1
3219-13PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+0.4
3320-13CSUBAKPORT×3Serve errCSUBAK server+0.7
3421-13PORTPORT×3KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Maui Robins+0.5
3522-13PORTPORT×3KillEliot Diehl Palmerset Nevaeh Bray+0.2
3622-14PORTCSUBAKServe errPORT server+0.0
3723-14CSUBAKPORTAttack errLeylah Duran+0.1
3824-14PORTPORTKillNevaeh Brayset Luiza Da Cruz+0.0
3924-15PORTCSUBAK×3Serve errPORT server+0.0
4024-16CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errNevaeh Brayblk Defne Yanik+0.0
4124-17CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errMaui Robins+0.0
4225-17CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Portland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.