Final · 4 setsThu, Sep 17, 2026 · Neutral site

Portland def. CSU Bakersfield 3–1

Portland beat CSU Bakersfield 3-1 (25-17, 25-19, 19-25, 25-17) on Thu, Sep 17, 2026 at a neutral site. Portland's Maui Robins led with 16 kills.

Data through · final Sep 17

Set1234Sets
PORT252519253
CSUBAK171925171

Win probability

CSU Bakersfield above 50 · Portland below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.6% PORTrally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.6% to Portland — set 2, PORT 17-15 CSUBAK. Portland ace on Suelen Lima. CSUBAK win probability 23% → 20%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

PORT 57.2%42.8% CSUBAK

Portland wins

3-0
15.8%
3-1
21.8%
3-2
19.7%

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0
9.7%
3-1
15.7%
3-2
17.3%
PORT break %
43.1% vs this opp
CSUBAK break %
41.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    PortlandAce+3.6%

    Portland ace on Suelen Lima

    Set 2 · PORT 17-15 CSUBAK · PORT 77% → 80%

  2. 02
    Maui RobinsKill+3.5%

    Kill by Maui Robins (set by Havannah Hoeft)

    Set 2 · PORT 15-14 CSUBAK · PORT 73% → 77%

  3. 03
    Jordyn Waite-WardAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Jordyn Waite-Ward

    Set 2 · PORT 20-17 CSUBAK · PORT 81% → 85%

  4. 04
    Maui RobinsKill+3.2%

    Kill by Maui Robins

    Set 2 · PORT 13-13 CSUBAK · PORT 70% → 73%

  5. 05
    Taina KaauwaiKill+3.2%

    Kill by Taina Kaauwai (set by Havannah Hoeft)

    Set 4 · PORT 3-2 CSUBAK · PORT 78% → 81%

  6. 06

    Kill by Eliot Diehl Palmer (set by Luiza Da Cruz)

    Set 4 · PORT 4-2 CSUBAK · PORT 81% → 84%

  7. 07

    Kill by Havannah Hoeft (set by Defne Yanik)

    Set 4 · PORT 6-3 CSUBAK · PORT 84% → 87%

  8. 08
    Jordyn Waite-WardAttack error+3.0%

    Attack error by Jordyn Waite-Ward

    Set 2 · PORT 12-13 CSUBAK · PORT 67% → 70%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416530.367222132010.518.5
411115.6672101102113
48237.16212270111.511.5
49220.3501015002110
43411-.09100000132.55.5
4305.6003704701014
4000–025920002
4000–001100000
3000–000500000
1216.16720020010.52.5
1000–000000000
Team totals5215124.29845715508310894
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
411737.10802274111.514.5
46214.286010100007
45010.500000101016
44519-.053001100004
4001.000011700001
4000–1401700000
411830.1001000010112
4003.0003311310003
4001.0001313710001
3013-.33300000010.50.5
2024-.500000200000
12021.000000000002
1000–500001011
1000–000000000
Team totals3925124.113368946742578

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 PORT · CSUBAK 5

Set 1

25-17

Longest run 5 PORTCSUBAK 4

Set 2

25-19

Longest run 4 PORTCSUBAK 3

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 2 PORTCSUBAK 5

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 3 PORTCSUBAK 3

Bars above the line = CSU Bakersfield leads, below = Portland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Portland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
75%9/12
43%6/14
2
80%8/10
43%6/14
3
67%6/9
57%8/14
4
86%6/7
25%2/8
5
86%6/7
57%8/14
6
67%6/9
40%4/10
All
76%41/54
46%34/74

CSU Bakersfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%8/14
0%0/7
2
53%8/15
27%3/11
3
55%6/11
33%4/12
4
46%6/13
14%1/7
5
67%6/9
14%1/7
6
50%6/12
40%4/10
All
54%40/74
24%13/54

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#PORT-CSUBAKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0CSUBAKPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
22-0PORTPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Eliot Diehl Palmer+2.4
32-1PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+1.7
43-1CSUBAKPORT×3KillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
54-1PORTPORT×3Attack errSuelen Lima+2.3
65-1PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.1
75-2PORTCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+1.4
85-3CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errTaina Kaauwai+2.2
96-3CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
106-4PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+1.7
117-4CSUBAKPORT×5KillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
128-4PORTPORT×5AcePortlandaced Suelen Lima+2.2
139-4PORTPORT×5Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+2.0
1410-4PORTPORT×5Attack errSuelen Lima+1.6
1511-4PORTPORT×5KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.3
1611-5PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+0.7
1712-5CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
1812-6PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+0.7
1913-6CSUBAKPORT×3KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
2014-6PORTPORT×3Attack errSuelen Lima+0.9
2115-6PORTPORT×3Attack errSuelen Lima+0.6
2215-7PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Ella Pallagi+0.3
2316-7CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.4
2416-8PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Ella Pallagi+0.3
2517-8CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+0.4
2618-8PORTPORTAcePortlandaced Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
2718-9PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+0.1
2818-10CSUBAKCSUBAKBlockedMaui Robinsblk Jordyn Waite-Ward+0.2
2919-10CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+0.3
3019-11PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi+0.1
3120-11CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+0.2
3221-11PORTPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Analiese Gagliano+0.1
3321-12PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Ella Pallagi·
3422-12CSUBAKPORTAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+0.1
3522-13PORTCSUBAK×4KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Ella Pallagi·
3622-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×4BlockedShaylee Stephenblk Ella Pallagi+0.1
3722-15CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errMaui Robins+0.1
3822-16CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Maui Robins+0.2
3923-16CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.3
4023-17PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+0.1
4124-17CSUBAKPORTAttack errAnna Bacchin+0.2
4225-17PORTPORTAcePortlandaced Suelen Lima·
Set 2
10-1PORTCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+1.7
20-2CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedKalaweloilehua Chockblk Suelen Lima+2.3
30-3CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+2.3
41-3CSUBAKPORTBlockedSuelen Limablk Kalaweloilehua Chock+1.6
51-4PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+1.7
62-4CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.6
72-5PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+1.8
83-5CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Taina Kaauwai+1.6
93-6PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.8
103-7CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Taina Kaauwai+2.3
114-7CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
124-8PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+1.7
134-9CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfield+2.1
145-9CSUBAKPORT×4Attack errAnna Bacchin+1.3
156-9PORTPORT×4AcePortlandaced Suelen Lima+2.1
167-9PORTPORT×4BlockedNele Broszatblk Kalaweloilehua Chock, Shaylee Stephen+2.4
178-9PORTPORT×4BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Shaylee Stephen+2.6
188-10PORTCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Samantha Capinpin+2.1
199-10CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Maui Robins+2.0
209-11PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+2.2
219-12CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errEliot Diehl Palmer+2.8
2210-12CSUBAKPORTServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.9
2310-13PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Havannah Hoeft+2.2
2411-13CSUBAKPORT×3KillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.9
2512-13PORTPORT×3Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+3.0
2613-13PORTPORT×3KillMaui Robins+3.2
2713-14PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+2.5
2814-14CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
2915-14PORTPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+3.5
3015-15PORTCSUBAKKillReese Jacksonset Samantha Capinpin+2.6
3116-15CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+2.7
3217-15PORTPORTAcePortlandaced Suelen Lima+3.6
3317-16PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+2.4
3418-16CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.8
3518-17PORTCSUBAKKillReese Jacksonset Samantha Capinpin+2.5
3619-17CSUBAKPORT×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+2.9
3720-17PORTPORT×3Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+3.5
3821-17PORTPORT×3BlockedJordyn Waite-Wardblk Taina Kaauwai, Shaylee Stephen+2.6
3921-18PORTCSUBAKAttack errEliot Diehl Palmer+1.2
4022-18CSUBAKPORTAttack errAna Franca Benjamin+1.9
4123-18PORTPORTAttack errAna Franca Benjamin+1.4
4223-19PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.4
4324-19CSUBAKPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Taina Kaauwai+0.8
4425-19PORTPORTBlockedJordyn Waite-Wardblk Taina Kaauwai, Maui Robins+0.3
Set 3
10-1CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errKalaweloilehua Chock+1.5
21-1CSUBAKPORTServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.1
31-2PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+1.1
42-2CSUBAKPORTServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.1
53-2PORTPORTAcePortland+1.5
63-3PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+1.1
74-3CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
84-4PORTCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+1.1
95-4CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.2
105-5PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Analiese Gagliano+1.2
116-5CSUBAKPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Kalaweloilehua Chock+1.2
126-6PORTCSUBAK×4KillSuelen Limaset Jordyn Waite-Ward+1.2
136-7CSUBAKCSUBAK×4BlockedShaylee Stephenblk Nele Broszat, Suelen Lima+1.7
146-8CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfield+1.7
156-9CSUBAKCSUBAK×4AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Jeryn Hildenbrand+1.7
167-9CSUBAKPORTBlockedSuelen Limablk Havannah Hoeft+1.1
177-10PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+1.3
188-10CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
199-10PORTPORTAttack errSuelen Lima+1.7
209-11PORTCSUBAK×3KillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+1.4
219-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+1.8
229-13CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfield+1.7
2310-13CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.0
2410-14PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+1.2
2511-14CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.0
2612-14PORTPORTAttack errLeylah Duran+1.7
2712-15PORTCSUBAKAttack errMaui Robins+1.5
2813-15CSUBAKPORTServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.3
2913-16PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+1.5
3014-16CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.3
3114-17PORTCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+1.6
3214-18CSUBAKCSUBAK×5Attack errShaylee Stephen+1.8
3314-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+1.4
3414-20CSUBAKCSUBAK×5AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Maui Robins+1.0
3514-21CSUBAKCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Analiese Gagliano+0.6
3615-21CSUBAKPORTServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.2
3716-21PORTPORTBad setSamantha Capinpin+0.5
3816-22CSUBAK
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.6
3916-23CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Jeryn Hildenbrand+0.3
4017-23CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.1
4118-23PORTPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+0.2
4218-24PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
4319-24CSUBAKPORTServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.1
4419-25PORTCSUBAKBad setHavannah Hoeft+0.2
Set 4
10-1PORTCSUBAKAttack errShaylee Stephen+2.3
21-1CSUBAKPORTAttack errAnna Bacchin+2.3
31-2PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+2.4
42-2CSUBAKPORT×3KillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
53-2PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+3.2
64-2PORTPORT×3KillEliot Diehl Palmerset Luiza Da Cruz+3.1
74-3PORTCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+2.3
85-3CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+2.4
96-3PORTPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Defne Yanik+3.0
106-4PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+2.1
117-4CSUBAKPORT×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+2.3
128-4PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.8
139-4PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
149-5PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.6
1510-5CSUBAKPORTAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+1.8
1610-6PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.6
1711-6CSUBAKPORTKillNevaeh Brayset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
1811-7PORTCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Luiza Da Cruz+1.6
1912-7CSUBAKPORT×3KillEliot Diehl Palmerset Nevaeh Bray+1.9
2013-7PORTPORT×3BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Nevaeh Bray, Eliot Diehl Palmer+2.0
2114-7PORTPORT×3AcePortlandaced Analiese Gagliano+1.5
2214-8PORTCSUBAKAttack errMaui Robins+0.8
2315-8CSUBAKPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
2415-9PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+0.8
2515-10CSUBAKCSUBAKKillDefne Yanik+1.5
2616-10CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
2716-11PORTCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+1.1
2817-11CSUBAKPORTKillMaui Robinsset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
2917-12PORTCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Analiese Gagliano+1.0
3018-12CSUBAKPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
3119-12PORTPORTAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+1.2
3219-13PORTCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+0.5
3320-13CSUBAKPORT×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.8
3421-13PORTPORT×3KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Maui Robins+0.6
3522-13PORTPORT×3KillEliot Diehl Palmerset Nevaeh Bray+0.2
3622-14PORTCSUBAKServe errPortland+0.1
3723-14CSUBAKPORTAttack errLeylah Duran+0.1
3824-14PORTPORTKillNevaeh Brayset Luiza Da Cruz·
3924-15PORTCSUBAK×3Serve errPortland·
4024-16CSUBAKCSUBAK×3BlockedNevaeh Brayblk Defne Yanik·
4124-17CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errMaui Robins·
4225-17CSUBAKPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft·

Score shown after each rally, Portland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).