Final · 5 setsThu, Oct 15, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Denver def. Portland 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Portland 60.1% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 15, 7:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Denver won at Portland 3-2 (25-22, 20-25, 22-25, 25-21, 15-8) on Thu, Oct 15, 2026. Kayla Patel led Denver with 15 kills; Portland's Kalaweloilehua Chock had a match-high 17.

Data through · final Oct 15

Set12345Sets
DENVER25202225153
PORT2225252182

Match story · written from the play-by-play

4 aces from Alicia Thibodeau, and Denver needed each of them.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Denver's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. RallyIQ had Portland at 60% before first serve.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Denver 8–10 Portland

    From here Denver won 17 of 28 rallies to take the set 25–21.

    Denver 14% → 44%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Denver 0–1 Portland

    Down 0–1, Denver scored 4 straight to lead 4–1. The match swung to Denver.

    Denver 38% → 72%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Denver 7–6 Portland

    Denver scored 4 straight to stretch a 7–6 lead to 11–6.

    Denver 60% → 94%

Portland above 50Denver belowMax swing 10.9%

DenverPortland

Sideout %
Denver 62.4·Portland 58.9
Break %
Denver 41.1·Portland 37.6
Hitting
Denver .329·Portland .299
Longest run
Denver 6·Portland 5

Alicia Thibodeau
5 kills inside the turning points, 14 K and .444 for the match (18.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Portland above 50 · Denver below
S1S2S3S4S510050100+10.9% DENVERrally 208 · set 5

Biggest swing: 10.9% to Denver — set 5, DENVER 9-6 PORT. Kill by Izabela Molina. PORT win probability 32% → 21%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

DENVER 49.0%51.0% PORT

Denver wins

3-0
12.1%
3-1
18.3%
3-2
18.6%

Portland wins

3-0
12.9%
3-1
19.2%
3-2
18.9%
DENVER break %
41.3% vs this opp
PORT break %
41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Izabela MolinaKill+10.9%

    Kill by Izabela Molina

    Set 5 · DENVER 9-6 PORT · DENVER 68% → 79%

  2. 02
    Havannah HoeftBad set+9.4%

    Bad set by Havannah Hoeft

    Set 5 · DENVER 3-1 PORT · DENVER 54% → 63%

  3. 03
    PortlandAce+9.3%

    Portland ace

    Set 5 · DENVER 5-4 PORT · PORT 33% → 42%

  4. 04

    Kill by Izabela Molina (set by Lily Van Hal)

    Set 5 · DENVER 2-1 PORT · DENVER 44% → 54%

  5. 05
    DenverAce+9.0%

    Denver ace on Kalaweloilehua Chock

    Set 5 · DENVER 4-1 PORT · DENVER 63% → 72%

  6. 06

    Kalaweloilehua Chock stuffed by Alicia Thibodeau & Izabela Molina

    Set 5 · DENVER 10-6 PORT · DENVER 79% → 88%

  7. 07
    Hailey GoebelKill+8.5%

    Kill by Hailey Goebel (set by Ilayda Eren)

    Set 5 · DENVER 8-6 PORT · DENVER 60% → 68%

  8. 08
    Hailey GoebelKill+8.1%

    Kill by Hailey Goebel (set by Ilayda Eren)

    Set 5 · DENVER 7-5 PORT · DENVER 59% → 67%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Denveraway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
514227.444240112010.518.5
514435.28600011010.514.5
511420.35020020153.514.5
56313.23121010031.58.5
5103.33336311400004
1128-.125000100212
5000–7001510000
415333.36410150010.515.5
46111.45500020031.57.5
3102.5001101700001
3000–001220000
2000–101000000
Team totals6919152.329628561111169107
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
517546.26130192010.517.5
514222.5450111002116
510020.5000001014313
5309.333582060010.55.5
5000–100700000
410527.1850001004212
510324.2921207000012
5000–042600004
5000–222940002
4000–000000000
2225.000000000002
1024-.500001100000
Team totals6619157.299651174881127101

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Denver vs Portland

Season series · Denver leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 DENVER · PORT 5

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 6 DENVERPORT 4

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 3 DENVERPORT 4

Set 3

22-25

Longest run 3 DENVERPORT 5

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 4 DENVERPORT 3

Set 5

15-8

Longest run 4 DENVERPORT 2

Bars above the line = Portland leads, below = Denver leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Denver

SlotSideout %Break %
1
68%13/19
52%13/25
2
57%12/21
48%11/23
3
63%10/16
38%6/16
4
48%10/21
29%4/14
5
82%9/11
9%1/11
6
69%9/13
50%9/18
All
62%63/101
41%44/107

Portland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%14/28
39%7/18
2
46%11/24
35%7/20
3
77%10/13
39%7/18
4
77%10/13
55%12/22
5
69%9/13
31%4/13
6
56%9/16
10%1/10
All
59%63/107
38%38/101

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

208 rallies

#DENVER-PORTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0PORTDENVER×3KillHailey Goebelset Lily Van Hal+1.8
22-0DENVERDENVER×3KillHailey Goebelset Alicia Thibodeau+2.5
33-0DENVERDENVER×3Attack errKalaweloilehua Chock+2.5
43-1DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.7
53-2PORTPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
64-2PORTDENVER×6KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.9
75-2DENVERDENVER×6BlockedLila Krallblk Elise Hart, Romi Chlebecek+2.6
86-2DENVERDENVER×6Attack errLila Krall+2.5
97-2DENVERDENVER×6Attack errCallie Pieper+2.3
108-2DENVERDENVER×6BlockedCallie Pieperblk Elise Hart, Hailey Goebel+2.0
119-2DENVERDENVER×6BlockedLila Krallblk Elise Hart, Romi Chlebecek+1.7
129-3DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
139-4PORTPORTAcePortlandaced Hailey Goebel+1.6
1410-4PORTDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+1.5
1510-5DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
1610-6PORTPORTAttack errRomi Chlebecek+2.0
1711-6PORTDENVERServe errPortland+1.7
1811-7DENVERPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
1912-7PORTDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+1.7
2013-7DENVERDENVER×3AceDenver+2.0
2114-7DENVERDENVER×3KillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.6
2214-8DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.8
2315-8PORTDENVERKillLily Van Halset Alize Flores+1.1
2415-9DENVERPORTBlockedHailey Goebelblk Kalaweloilehua Chock, Shaylee Stephen+0.7
2516-9PORTDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Lily Van Hal+1.1
2616-10DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+0.7
2717-10PORTDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Lily Van Hal+1.0
2817-11DENVERPORTBlockedRomi Chlebecekblk Shaylee Stephen, Lila Krall+0.6
2918-11PORTDENVERServe errPortland+1.0
3018-12DENVERPORT×4Serve errDenver+0.6
3118-13PORTPORT×4Attack errElise Hart+1.2
3218-14PORTPORT×4AcePortland+1.7
3318-15PORTPORT×4AcePortlandaced Madison Winkler+2.4
3419-15PORTDENVERKillRomi Chlebecekset Madison Winkler+2.3
3519-16DENVERPORTServe errDenver+1.6
3620-16PORTDENVERServe errPortland+2.3
3721-16DENVERDENVERAttack errTaina Kaauwai+2.3
3821-17DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
3922-17PORTDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+1.5
4023-17DENVERDENVERAttack errKalaweloilehua Chock+1.1
4123-18DENVERPORT×4KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.2
4223-19PORTPORT×4AcePortland+0.7
4323-20PORTPORT×4KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
4423-21PORTPORT×4Attack errHailey Goebel+2.6
4524-21PORTDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+3.5
4624-22DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.3
4725-22PORTDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Lily Van Hal+3.2
Set 2
11-0DENVERDENVERAceDenver+2.8
22-0DENVERDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+2.8
32-1DENVERPORTAttack errKayla Patel+1.9
43-1PORTDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.1
54-1DENVERDENVERServe errDenver+2.9
64-2DENVERPORT×3BlockedElise Hartblk Lila Krall, Shaylee Stephen+1.9
74-3PORTPORT×3Attack errHailey Goebel+2.8
84-4PORTPORT×3AcePortland+2.9
95-4PORTDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.2
105-5DENVERPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+2.1
115-6PORTPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+3.0
126-6PORTDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.2
136-7DENVERPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+2.2
147-7PORTDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.3
157-8DENVERPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
168-8PORTDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+2.3
179-8DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+3.4
189-9DENVERPORT×4KillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+2.4
199-10PORTPORT×4KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+3.4
209-11PORTPORT×4BlockedHailey Goebelblk Lila Krall, Shaylee Stephen+3.3
219-12PORTPORT×4KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+3.1
2210-12PORTDENVER×3KillHailey Goebelset Madison Winkler+2.0
2311-12DENVERDENVER×3AceDenveraced Jeryn Hildenbrand+3.2
2412-12DENVERDENVER×3AceDenveraced Jeryn Hildenbrand+3.7
2512-13DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+2.7
2612-14PORTPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+3.7
2713-14PORTDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+2.5
2814-14DENVERDENVERKillElise Hart+4.0
2914-15DENVERPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+3.0
3014-16PORTPORTBlockedKayla Patelblk Lila Krall, Taina Kaauwai+4.0
3115-16PORTDENVERKillKayla Patelset Madison Winkler+2.7
3216-16DENVERDENVERKillElise Hart+4.4
3316-17DENVERPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+3.3
3416-18PORTPORT×3AcePortlandaced Emersen Werger+4.5
3516-19PORTPORT×3Attack errElise Hart+3.9
3617-19PORTDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.2
3717-20DENVERPORT×3KillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+2.9
3817-21PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+3.0
3917-22PORTPORT×3AcePortlandaced Emersen Werger+1.9
4018-22PORTDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+0.7
4118-23DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
4219-23PORTDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.4
4319-24DENVERPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Kalaweloilehua Chock+0.9
4420-24PORTDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+0.2
4520-25DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+0.5
Set 3
11-0PORTDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+2.4
21-1DENVERPORT×3KillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+2.4
31-2PORTPORT×3Attack errAlicia Thibodeau+3.3
41-3PORTPORT×3KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+3.2
52-3PORTDENVERBlockedVanessa Haddockblk Jamia Johnson, Izabela Molina+2.3
62-4DENVERPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
72-5PORTPORTKillLila Krallset Kalaweloilehua Chock+3.1
83-5PORTDENVERAttack errVanessa Haddock+2.1
93-6DENVERPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.2
104-6PORTDENVERKillKayla Patelset Madison Winkler+2.1
114-7DENVERPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
124-8PORTPORTBlockedAlicia Thibodeaublk Taina Kaauwai, Havannah Hoeft+2.9
135-8PORTDENVERKillKayla Patel+1.9
146-8DENVERDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+3.1
156-9DENVERPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Amiyah Eason+2.4
167-9PORTDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler+2.3
177-10DENVERPORTServe errDenver+2.5
188-10PORTDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+2.3
199-10DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+3.7
209-11DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+2.8
219-12PORTPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+3.7
2210-12PORTDENVERBlockedLila Krallblk Izabela Molina, Kayla Patel+2.4
2310-13DENVERPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+2.7
2411-13PORTDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Lily Van Hal+2.4
2512-13DENVERDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+4.0
2613-13DENVERDENVER×3KillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+4.6
2713-14DENVERPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+3.4
2814-14PORTDENVERServe errPortland+3.4
2914-15DENVERPORTServe errDenver+3.6
3015-15PORTDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+3.6
3115-16DENVERPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Kalaweloilehua Chock+3.7
3216-16PORTDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+3.8
3317-16DENVERDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Havannah Hoeft+5.8
3417-17DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+4.0
3518-17PORTDENVERKillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+4.4
3618-18DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+4.3
3719-18PORTDENVERBlockedKalaweloilehua Chockblk Izabela Molina+4.8
3819-19DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+4.6
3920-19PORTDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+5.2
4020-20DENVERPORT×5KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+5.0
4120-21PORTPORT×5KillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+7.7
4220-22PORTPORT×5KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+7.3
4320-23PORTPORT×5AcePortlandaced Alicia Thibodeau+5.6
4420-24PORTPORT×5Attack errKayla Patel+3.0
4521-24PORTDENVERKillIlayda Erenset Kayla Patel+0.6
4622-24DENVERDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+2.1
4722-25DENVERPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+3.6
Set 4
11-0DENVERDENVERAceDenveraced Jeryn Hildenbrand+3.1
22-0DENVERDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+3.2
32-1DENVERPORTKillLila Krallset Jeryn Hildenbrand+2.1
42-2PORTPORTBlockedIzabela Molinablk Shaylee Stephen+3.1
53-2PORTDENVERAttack errLila Krall+2.3
63-3DENVERPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+2.3
74-3PORTDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+2.4
84-4DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Vanessa Haddock+2.3
95-4PORTDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+2.4
106-4DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Ilayda Eren+3.5
116-5DENVERPORTServe errDenver+2.3
126-6PORTPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Madison Winkler+3.4
137-6PORTDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Elise Hart+2.6
147-7DENVERPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
157-8PORTPORTAcePortland+3.6
168-8PORTDENVERServe errPortland+2.6
178-9DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+2.6
188-10PORTPORTAcePortlandaced Alicia Thibodeau+3.6
199-10PORTDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+2.4
2010-10DENVERDENVER×3Bad setKalaweloilehua Chock+3.8
2111-10DENVERDENVER×3AceDenveraced Kalaweloilehua Chock+4.1
2211-11DENVERPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+2.8
2311-12PORTPORTAttack errIzabela Molina+4.1
2412-12PORTDENVERKillAlicia Thibodeauset Izabela Molina+2.9
2513-12DENVERDENVERKillKayla Patelset Izabela Molina+4.4
2613-13DENVERPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+3.0
2714-13PORTDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Alicia Thibodeau+3.3
2814-14DENVERPORTKillLila Krallset Havannah Hoeft+3.2
2915-14PORTDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+3.4
3016-14DENVERDENVERBad setHavannah Hoeft+4.8
3116-15DENVERPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+3.1
3217-15PORTDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Madison Winkler+3.7
3317-16DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+3.3
3418-16PORTDENVERAttack errKalaweloilehua Chock+3.9
3519-16DENVERDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Elise Hart+4.9
3619-17DENVERPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+2.8
3720-17PORTDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Ilayda Eren+3.7
3821-17DENVERDENVER×4AceDenveraced Jeryn Hildenbrand+4.0
3922-17DENVERDENVER×4BlockedEliot Diehl Palmerblk Jamia Johnson, Izabela Molina+2.6
4023-17DENVERDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Madison Winkler+1.3
4123-18DENVERPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Jeryn Hildenbrand+0.3
4224-18PORTDENVERServe errPortland+0.7
4324-19DENVERPORT×3KillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+0.1
4424-20PORTPORT×3Attack errIzabela Molina+0.4
4524-21PORTPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.0
4625-21PORTDENVERServe errPortland+0.5
Set 5
10-1DENVERPORTAttack errIzabela Molina+6.1
21-1PORTDENVER×4KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+6.2
32-1DENVERDENVER×4KillIzabela Molinaset Lily Van Hal+9.2
43-1DENVERDENVER×4Bad setHavannah Hoeft+9.4
54-1DENVERDENVER×4AceDenveraced Kalaweloilehua Chock+9.0
64-2DENVERPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+5.6
75-2PORTDENVERKillJamia Johnsonset Lily Van Hal+6.7
85-3DENVERPORTAttack errJamia Johnson+5.7
95-4PORTPORTAcePortland+9.3
106-4PORTDENVERKillElise Hartset Lily Van Hal+7.7
116-5DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+6.9
127-5PORTDENVERKillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+8.1
137-6DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+7.2
148-6PORTDENVER×4KillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+8.5
159-6DENVERDENVER×4KillIzabela Molina+10.9
1610-6DENVERDENVER×4BlockedKalaweloilehua Chockblk Alicia Thibodeau, Izabela Molina+8.9
1711-6DENVERDENVER×4KillHailey Goebelset Ilayda Eren+6.2
1811-7DENVERPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
1912-7PORTDENVERAttack errEliot Diehl Palmer+4.1
2012-8DENVERPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+2.0
2113-8PORTDENVER×3KillAlicia Thibodeauset Lily Van Hal+3.6
2214-8DENVERDENVER×3Attack errVanessa Haddock+2.0
2315-8DENVERDENVER×3BlockedTaina Kaauwaiblk Jamia Johnson, Izabela Molina+0.4

Score shown after each rally, Denver first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).