FinalFri, Aug 28, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeMEAC

Maryland def. Howard 3–0

(25-23, 25-14, 25-22)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MD	25	25	25	3
HOWARD	23	14	22	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

HOWARD above 50 · MD below

Biggest swing: 1.0% to Maryland — set 1, MD 24-23 HOWARD. Kill by Sydney Bryant (set by Sara Toth). HOWARD win probability 2% → 2%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MD 98.7%1.3% HOWARD

Maryland wins

3-0

71.4%

3-1

22.7%

3-2

4.5%

Howard wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.3%

3-2

0.9%

MD break %: 50.6% vs this opp
HOWARD break %: 33.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Sydney BryantKill+1.0%
Kill by Sydney Bryant (set by Sara Toth)
Set 1 · MD 24-23 HOWARD · MD 98% → 98%
02
Corinne HowardAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Corinne Howard
Set 1 · MD 25-23 HOWARD · MD 98% → 99%
03
Sydney BryantAttack error+0.9%
Sydney Bryant stuffed by Corinne Howard & Zenai Jethroe
Set 1 · MD 22-22 HOWARD · HOWARD 2% → 2%
04
Zenai JethroeKill+0.8%
Kill by Zenai Jethroe (set by Alexys James)
Set 1 · MD 23-23 HOWARD · HOWARD 2% → 2%
05
HOWARD serverAce+0.8%
Howard ace on Sydney Bryant
Set 1 · MD 12-17 HOWARD · HOWARD 4% → 5%
06
Sara TothKill+0.7%
Kill by Sara Toth (set by Haley Melby)
Set 1 · MD 23-22 HOWARD · MD 98% → 98%
07
Kennedi WrightKill+0.7%
Kill by Kennedi Wright (set by Alexys James)
Set 1 · MD 10-14 HOWARD · HOWARD 3% → 4%
08
Ava BrownKill+0.7%
Kill by Ava Brown (set by Raina Chwialkowski)
Set 1 · MD 18-18 HOWARD · MD 97% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Marylandaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Ava BrownOH	3	17	2	28	.536	0	0	2	4	0	3	1.5	18.5
4Haley MelbyOH	3	12	0	23	.522	1	1	2	8	0	0	0	13
44Eva RohrbachMB	3	8	2	13	.462	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8
23Duru GökçenMB	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	0	0	1	4	2	5
18Sara TothS	3	2	0	3	.667	46	0	1	7	0	0	0	2
6Elayna DavidsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	2	1	5	0	0	0	2
16Sydney BryantOH	3	9	4	23	.217	0	0	0	2	1	1	0.5	9.5
2Raina ChwialkowskiDS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
8Addie CanadyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
Team totals		51	8	99	.434	51	3	7	40	3	8	4	75

Howardhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
5Alexys JamesS	3	11	4	20	.350	16	0	1	6	0	0	0	11
17Tiana StubbsMB	3	7	1	13	.462	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8
18Zenai JethroeMB	3	6	1	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	8
21Addison BucknerOH	3	7	2	22	.227	0	0	0	4	2	1	0.5	7.5
6Sydnei JonesS	3	0	0	2	.000	23	1	3	3	0	0	0	1
33Kennedi WrightOH	2	4	2	18	.111	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4
22Corinne HowardOH	3	1	3	7	-.286	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	3
11Lauryn WileyL/DS	3	1	0	2	.500	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	2
12Camryn SheltonL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	0	14	1	0	0	2
20Gabby AllenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
13Dayion JohnsonOH	2	3	1	6	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
14Daryn WatkinsOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		41	14	102	.265	39	3	5	35	3	12	6	59

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 MD · HOWARD 3

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 MDHOWARD 2

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 6 MDHOWARD 2

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 MDHOWARD 3

Bars above the line = Howard leads, below = Maryland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Maryland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	56%9/16	64%14/22
2	88%7/8	30%3/10
3	88%7/8	36%4/11
4	58%7/12	13%1/8
5	78%7/9	22%2/9
6	86%6/7	57%8/14
All	72%43/60	43%32/74

Howard

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	30%3/10
2	64%7/11	38%5/13
3	70%7/10	13%1/8
4	70%7/10	13%1/8
5	64%7/11	42%5/12
6	40%6/15	22%2/9
All	57%42/74	28%17/60

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

134 rallies

Rally log

#	MD-HOWARD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MD	MD	Attack err	Alexys James		+0.2
2	1-1	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
3	1-2	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.3
4	2-2	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.2
5	2-3	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.2
6	3-3	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.2
7	3-4	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Camryn Shelton	set Ava Brown	+0.2
8	4-4	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.2
9	4-5	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.2
10	4-6	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Sara Toth	+0.4
11	5-6	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.2
12	5-7	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Alexys James	+0.3
13	6-7	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.2
14	6-8	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Alexys James	+0.3
15	7-8	HOWARD	MD	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.2
16	7-9	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Sydnei Jones	+0.3
17	7-10	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.5
18	8-10	HOWARD	MD	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.3
19	8-11	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
20	9-11	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.3
21	9-12	MD	HOWARD	Attack err	Sydney Bryant		+0.4
22	10-12	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.3
23	10-13	MD	HOWARD	Attack err	Sydney Bryant	blk Corinne Howard, Zenai Jethroe	+0.5
24	10-14	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Alexys James	+0.7
25	11-14	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.4
26	11-15	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Alexys James	+0.6
27	12-15	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.4
28	12-16	MD	HOWARD	Serve err	MD server		+0.6
29	12-17	HOWARD	HOWARD	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Sydney Bryant	+0.8
30	13-17	HOWARD	MD×4	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.4
31	14-17	MD	MD×4	Bad set	Sydnei Jones		+0.6
32	15-17	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Alexys James		+0.6
33	16-17	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Kennedi Wright		+0.6
34	16-18	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.6
35	17-18	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.5
36	18-18	MD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.7
37	18-19	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.6
38	19-19	HOWARD	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.5
39	20-19	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Alexys James		+0.7
40	21-19	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Zenai Jethroe		+0.5
41	21-20	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
42	22-20	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.4
43	22-21	MD	HOWARD	Attack err	Sydney Bryant	blk Corinne Howard, Zenai Jethroe	+0.4
44	22-22	HOWARD	HOWARD	Attack err	Sydney Bryant	blk Corinne Howard, Zenai Jethroe	+0.9
45	23-22	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Sara Toth	set Haley Melby	+0.7
46	23-23	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Alexys James	+0.8
47	24-23	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+1.0
48	25-23	MD	MD	Attack err	Corinne Howard		+0.9
Set 2
1	0-1	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Lauryn Wiley	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
2	1-1	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
3	1-2	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
4	2-2	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
5	3-2	MD	MD	Bad set	Sydnei Jones		+0.1
6	3-3	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
7	4-3	HOWARD	MD	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.1
8	4-4	MD	HOWARD	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
9	5-4	HOWARD	MD×3	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
10	6-4	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Corinne Howard	blk Sydney Bryant, Duru Gökçen	+0.1
11	7-4	MD	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.1
12	7-5	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Alexys James	+0.1
13	8-5	HOWARD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
14	9-5	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Corinne Howard		+0.1
15	10-5	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Kennedi Wright		+0.0
16	11-5	MD	MD×4	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.0
17	11-6	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Alexys James	+0.0
18	12-6	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
19	12-7	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Kennedi Wright	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
20	13-7	HOWARD	MD	Attack err	Addison Buckner	blk Duru Gökçen, Ava Brown	+0.0
21	13-8	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
22	14-8	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.0
23	14-9	MD	HOWARD	Serve err	MD server		+0.0
24	15-9	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.0
25	15-10	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
26	16-10	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.0
27	16-11	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Alexys James	+0.0
28	17-11	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
29	18-11	MD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.0
30	18-12	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Alexys James	+0.0
31	19-12	HOWARD	MD×6	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
32	20-12	MD	MD×6	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.0
33	21-12	MD	MD×6	Attack err	Tiana Stubbs		+0.0
34	22-12	MD	MD×6	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.0
35	23-12	MD	MD×6	Kill	Haley Melby	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.0
36	24-12	MD	MD×6	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.0
37	24-13	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
38	24-14	HOWARD	HOWARD	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Duru Gökçen	+0.0
39	25-14	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MD	MD	Ace	MD server	aced Addison Buckner	+0.0
2	1-1	MD	HOWARD	Serve err	MD server		+0.0
3	2-1	HOWARD	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.0
4	3-1	MD	MD×3	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.0
5	4-1	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Addison Buckner		+0.0
6	4-2	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
7	4-3	HOWARD	HOWARD	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Team	+0.0
8	5-3	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.0
9	5-4	MD	HOWARD	Serve err	MD server		+0.0
10	6-4	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Sara Toth	set Elayna Davidson	+0.0
11	6-5	MD	HOWARD×3	Kill	Corinne Howard	set Alexys James	+0.0
12	6-6	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Eva Rohrbach		+0.1
13	6-7	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Eva Rohrbach	blk Zenai Jethroe, Corinne Howard	+0.1
14	7-7	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.1
15	7-8	MD	HOWARD×3	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Alexys James	+0.1
16	7-9	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Alexys James	+0.1
17	7-10	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Ava Brown	blk Dayion Johnson, Tiana Stubbs	+0.1
18	8-10	HOWARD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
19	9-10	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Dayion Johnson	blk Duru Gökçen, Ava Brown	+0.1
20	10-10	MD	MD×4	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
21	11-10	MD	MD×4	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.1
22	11-11	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Alexys James	+0.1
23	12-11	HOWARD	MD	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.1
24	13-11	MD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
25	13-12	MD	HOWARD×3	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
26	13-13	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Ava Brown	blk Tiana Stubbs, Addison Buckner	+0.1
27	13-14	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
28	14-14	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.1
29	14-15	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
30	15-15	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
31	16-15	MD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.1
32	16-16	MD	HOWARD	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
33	16-17	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Alexys James	+0.2
34	17-17	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.1
35	18-17	MD	MD	Ace	MD server	aced Addison Buckner	+0.1
36	18-18	MD	HOWARD	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
37	19-18	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.1
38	19-19	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Alexys James	+0.1
39	20-19	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.1
40	20-20	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Tiana Stubbs	set Alexys James	+0.1
41	21-20	HOWARD	MD×4	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.1
42	22-20	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Alexys James	blk Ava Brown, Duru Gökçen	+0.1
43	23-20	MD	MD×4	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
44	24-20	MD	MD×4	Ace	MD server	aced Camryn Shelton	+0.0
45	24-21	MD	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
46	24-22	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Alexys James	set Sydnei Jones	+0.0
47	25-22	HOWARD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Maryland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.