FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

AwayIVY-LEAGUE

0:3

HomeBIG-TEN

Maryland def. Princeton 3–0

(25-17, 25-15, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PRINCE	17	15	20	0
MD	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MD above 50 · PRINCE below

Biggest swing: 0.6% to Maryland — set 1, PRINCE 0-1 MD. Kill by Haley Melby (set by Sara Toth). MD win probability 95% → 96%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PRINCE 5.1%94.9% MD

Princeton wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.4%

3-2

3.1%

Maryland wins

3-0

55.2%

3-1

29.7%

3-2

10.0%

PRINCE break %: 34.6% vs this opp
MD break %: 47.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Haley MelbyKill+0.6%
Kill by Haley Melby (set by Sara Toth)
Set 1 · PRINCE 0-1 MD · MD 95% → 96%
02
MD serverAce+0.5%
Maryland ace on Team
Set 1 · PRINCE 0-2 MD · MD 96% → 96%
03
PRINCE serverAce+0.5%
Princeton ace on Haley Melby
Set 2 · PRINCE 2-1 MD · PRINCE 2% → 3%
04
Shelby BurrissKill+0.4%
Kill by Shelby Burriss (set by Sydney Draper)
Set 1 · PRINCE 3-5 MD · PRINCE 3% → 4%
05
Ava BrownKill+0.4%
Kill by Ava Brown (set by Sara Toth)
Set 1 · PRINCE 0-3 MD · MD 96% → 96%
06
Eva RohrbachKill+0.4%
Kill by Eva Rohrbach (set by Sara Toth)
Set 2 · PRINCE 2-3 MD · MD 97% → 98%
07
Shelby BurrissAttack error+0.4%
Shelby Burriss stuffed by Haley Melby & Eva Rohrbach
Set 1 · PRINCE 3-7 MD · MD 96% → 97%
08
Eva RohrbachKill+0.4%
Kill by Eva Rohrbach (set by Sara Toth)
Set 2 · PRINCE 3-5 MD · MD 98% → 98%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Princetonaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
13Erin McNairOH	3	12	5	30	.233	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	12
3Ashtyn SimsOH	3	5	4	20	.050	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	5
9Shelby BurrissMB	3	3	2	14	.071	0	0	2	2	0	1	0	1	4
19Sydney DraperS	3	0	1	5	-.200	24	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
24Ava HarringtonMB	2	1	2	7	-.143	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	2
10Jackie OnyechiMB	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Natalie SurgesOH	3	0	0	3	.000	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	0	1
1Sydney BoldL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	2	9	0	0	0	0	1
7Sarah HomOH	2	5	3	9	.222	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	0	6
14Taylor ClarkeOH	2	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Ashley DuckworthMB	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
Team totals		30	18	97	.124	29	3	8	33	4	2	2	3	52

Marylandhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
4Haley MelbyOH	3	9	1	27	.296	1	2	1	9	1	0	2	1	12
44Eva RohrbachMB	3	6	2	12	.333	0	0	1	2	0	1	6	4	10
23Duru GökçenMB	3	7	0	9	.778	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	8
3Ava BrownOH	3	4	2	12	.167	0	0	2	1	0	1	3	2.5	6.5
18Sara TothS	3	2	0	3	.667	39	0	1	6	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
24Brooklynne BrassOH	3	2	1	5	.200	1	1	0	5	2	0	0	0	3
16Sydney BryantOH	3	14	4	23	.435	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14
2Raina ChwialkowskiDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	1	2	9	0	0	0	0	1
6Elayna DavidsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
8Addie CanadyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	10	91	.374	44	4	9	41	3	2	16	10	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 PRINCE · MD 5

Set 1

17-25

Longest run 4 PRINCEMD 5

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 2 PRINCEMD 5

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 PRINCEMD 5

Bars above the line = Maryland leads, below = Princeton leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Princeton

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	54%7/13	14%1/7
2	54%7/13	42%5/12
3	40%6/15	50%7/14
4	46%6/13	14%1/7
5	38%5/13	14%1/7
6	71%5/7	17%1/6
All	49%36/74	30%16/53

Maryland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	73%8/11	30%3/10
2	47%7/15	36%4/11
3	75%6/8	67%12/18
4	86%6/7	57%8/14
5	83%5/6	62%8/13
6	83%5/6	38%3/8
All	70%37/53	51%38/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	PRINCE-MD	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MD	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.6
2	0-2	MD	MD×3	Ace	MD server	aced Team	+0.5
3	0-3	MD	MD×3	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.4
4	1-3	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Sydney Draper	+0.3
5	1-4	PRINCE	MD	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.3
6	1-5	MD	MD	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims		+0.3
7	2-5	MD	PRINCE	Attack err	Eva Rohrbach		+0.2
8	3-5	PRINCE	PRINCE	Kill	Shelby Burriss	set Sydney Draper	+0.4
9	3-6	PRINCE	MD×5	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.3
10	3-7	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Shelby Burriss	blk Haley Melby, Eva Rohrbach	+0.4
11	3-8	MD	MD×5	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.3
12	3-9	MD	MD×5	Kill	Sara Toth	set Brooklynne Brass	+0.2
13	3-10	MD	MD×5	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.1
14	4-10	MD	PRINCE	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
15	4-11	PRINCE	MD×4	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.1
16	4-12	MD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
17	4-13	MD	MD×4	Ace	MD server	aced Ashtyn Sims	+0.1
18	4-14	MD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Elayna Davidson	+0.0
19	5-14	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
20	5-15	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.0
21	6-15	MD	PRINCE	Serve err	MD server		+0.0
22	6-16	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
23	6-17	MD	MD	Attack err	Erin McNair		+0.0
24	7-17	MD	PRINCE	Attack err	Sydney Bryant	blk Ava Harrington	+0.0
25	7-18	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
26	8-18	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
27	9-18	PRINCE	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
28	9-19	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.0
29	10-19	MD	PRINCE×4	Attack err	Ava Brown		+0.0
30	11-19	PRINCE	PRINCE×4	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
31	12-19	PRINCE	PRINCE×4	Ace	PRINCE server	aced Brooklynne Brass	+0.0
32	13-19	PRINCE	PRINCE×4	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
33	13-20	PRINCE	MD	Attack err	Sarah Hom	blk Eva Rohrbach, Ava Brown	+0.1
34	13-21	MD	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.0
35	14-21	MD	PRINCE	Serve err	MD server		+0.0
36	15-21	PRINCE	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
37	15-22	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.0
38	15-23	MD	MD	Ace	MD server	aced Sarah Hom	+0.0
39	16-23	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Bold	+0.0
40	17-23	PRINCE	PRINCE	Attack err	Sydney Bryant		+0.0
41	17-24	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
42	17-25	MD	MD	Attack err	Erin McNair	blk Duru Gökçen, Sara Toth	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	PRINCE	MD	Attack err	Sarah Hom		+0.3
2	1-1	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Ava Harrington	set Sydney Draper	+0.3
3	2-1	PRINCE	PRINCE	Ace	PRINCE server	aced Haley Melby	+0.5
4	2-2	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.3
5	2-3	MD	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.4
6	3-3	MD	PRINCE	Serve err	MD server		+0.3
7	3-4	PRINCE	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.3
8	3-5	MD	MD×3	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.4
9	3-6	MD	MD×3	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.3
10	4-6	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Draper	+0.2
11	4-7	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.2
12	5-7	MD	PRINCE	Attack err	Sydney Bryant		+0.2
13	5-8	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.2
14	6-8	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.2
15	6-9	PRINCE	MD	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.2
16	7-9	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Sarah Hom	set Sydney Draper	+0.2
17	7-10	PRINCE	MD×4	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.2
18	7-11	MD	MD×4	Ace	MD server	aced Sarah Hom	+0.3
19	7-12	MD	MD×4	Bad set	Erin McNair		+0.2
20	7-13	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Sarah Hom	blk Eva Rohrbach, Ava Brown	+0.1
21	8-13	MD	PRINCE	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
22	9-13	PRINCE	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Bold	+0.2
23	9-14	PRINCE	MD×5	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.1
24	9-15	MD	MD×5	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.1
25	9-16	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Ava Harrington	blk Haley Melby, Eva Rohrbach	+0.1
26	9-17	MD	MD×5	Kill	Haley Melby	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.0
27	9-18	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Ava Harrington		+0.0
28	10-18	MD	PRINCE	Attack err	Brooklynne Brass		+0.0
29	11-18	PRINCE	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
30	11-19	PRINCE	MD	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.0
31	12-19	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Bold	+0.0
32	12-20	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
33	12-21	MD	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.0
34	13-21	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
35	13-22	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
36	13-23	MD	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
37	14-23	MD	PRINCE	Serve err	MD server		+0.0
38	14-24	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.0
39	15-24	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
40	15-25	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Taylor Clarke	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
2	1-1	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.1
3	2-1	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Taylor Clarke	set Sydney Draper	+0.2
4	2-2	PRINCE	MD	Attack err	Erin McNair	blk Ava Brown, Eva Rohrbach	+0.1
5	3-2	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Shelby Burriss	set Sydney Draper	+0.2
6	3-3	PRINCE	MD×3	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.1
7	3-4	MD	MD×3	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.2
8	3-5	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Sydney Draper	blk Eva Rohrbach	+0.2
9	4-5	MD	PRINCE	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
10	4-6	PRINCE	MD×5	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.1
11	4-7	MD	MD×5	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims		+0.1
12	4-8	MD	MD×5	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
13	4-9	MD	MD×5	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.1
14	4-10	MD	MD×5	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
15	5-10	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
16	6-10	PRINCE	PRINCE	Attack err	Sydney Bryant	blk Ashley Duckworth, Taylor Clarke	+0.1
17	6-11	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
18	6-12	MD	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
19	7-12	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Ashtyn Sims	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.0
20	8-12	PRINCE	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Bold	+0.1
21	8-13	PRINCE	MD	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.1
22	9-13	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
23	10-13	PRINCE	PRINCE	Ace	PRINCE server	aced Brooklynne Brass	+0.1
24	10-14	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
25	11-14	MD	PRINCE	Serve err	MD server		+0.1
26	11-15	PRINCE	MD	Attack err	Erin McNair		+0.1
27	11-16	MD	MD	Attack err	Shelby Burriss		+0.1
28	12-16	MD	PRINCE	Attack err	Haley Melby		+0.1
29	12-17	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Sara Toth	set Haley Melby	+0.1
30	13-17	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Shelby Burriss	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
31	13-18	PRINCE	MD×3	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
32	13-19	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims		+0.1
33	13-20	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Ashtyn Sims	blk Duru Gökçen, Sara Toth	+0.0
34	14-20	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
35	14-21	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.0
36	15-21	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Taylor Clarke	set Sydney Bold	+0.0
37	15-22	PRINCE	MD	Attack err	Taylor Clarke		+0.0
38	16-22	MD	PRINCE	Kill	Taylor Clarke	set Sydney Draper	+0.0
39	17-22	PRINCE	PRINCE	Attack err	Ava Brown		+0.0
40	17-23	PRINCE	MD	Kill	Haley Melby	set Sara Toth	+0.0
41	18-23	MD	PRINCE×3	Serve err	MD server		+0.0
42	19-23	PRINCE	PRINCE×3	Attack err	Eva Rohrbach	blk Shelby Burriss	+0.0
43	20-23	PRINCE	PRINCE×3	Kill	Erin McNair	set Sydney Draper	+0.1
44	20-24	PRINCE	MD	Serve err	PRINCE server		+0.1
45	20-25	MD	MD	Attack err	Erin McNair	blk Sara Toth, Eva Rohrbach	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Princeton first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.