FinalFri, Sep 18, 2026

AwayBIG-TEN

3:0

HomeAMERICAN

Maryland def. East Carolina 3–0

(25-18, 25-15, 25-21)

Set	1	2*	3*	Sets
MD	25	25	25	3
E CAR	18	15	21	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
* Set 3: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

E CAR above 50 · MD below

Biggest swing: 1.6% to East Carolina — set 1, MD 12-11 E CAR. Kill by Ellie Pate (set by Taryn Gilreath). E CAR win probability 11% → 13%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

MD 86.6%13.4% E CAR

Maryland wins

3-0

39.2%

3-1

31.5%

3-2

15.9%

East Carolina wins

3-0

1.9%

3-1

4.2%

3-2

7.2%

MD break %: 44.1% vs this opp
E CAR break %: 35.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Ellie PateKill+1.6%
Kill by Ellie Pate (set by Taryn Gilreath)
Set 1 · MD 12-11 E CAR · E CAR 11% → 13%
02
Brooklynne BrassKill+1.5%
Kill by Brooklynne Brass (set by Sara Toth)
Set 1 · MD 15-12 E CAR · MD 89% → 90%
03
E CAR serverAce+1.5%
East Carolina ace on Elayna Davidson
Set 1 · MD 4-4 E CAR · E CAR 12% → 14%
04
E CAR serverAce+1.4%
East Carolina ace on TEAM
Set 2 · MD 9-10 E CAR · E CAR 7% → 9%
05
Ava BrownKill+1.4%
Kill by Ava Brown (set by Sara Toth)
Set 2 · MD 13-12 E CAR · MD 92% → 93%
06
Ellie PateAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Ellie Pate
Set 1 · MD 6-4 E CAR · MD 87% → 89%
07
Ellie PateAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Ellie Pate
Set 2 · MD 14-12 E CAR · MD 93% → 95%
08
Kai BaileyAttack error+1.3%
Attack error by Kai Bailey
Set 1 · MD 4-2 E CAR · MD 87% → 89%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Marylandaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
44Eva RohrbachMB	3	10	0	14	.714	1	1	1	2	0	0	5	2.5	13.5
24Brooklynne BrassOH	3	9	2	25	.280	0	1	0	11	0	1	2	2	12
3Ava BrownOH	3	9	2	18	.389	0	0	2	2	0	0	4	2	11
23Duru GökçenMB	3	5	0	10	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	6.5
16Sydney BryantOH	3	4	2	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Sara TothS	3	0	0	1	.000	31	0	1	5	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
6Elayna DavidsonDS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	3	2	0	0	0	2
2Raina ChwialkowskiDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	1
11Marlee SivakOH	3	0	2	3	-.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8Addie CanadyL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
5Alex McgillivrayL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Annika SokolS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14Ellis CrawfordMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Haley MelbyOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Ioanna DimitriouMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22Nikki TawilS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	8	83	.349	33	5	6	31	5	2	14	9	75

East Carolinahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
19Ellie PateOH	3	10	10	45	.000	0	2	0	4	4	0	0	12
12Aulie HuffOH	3	10	3	17	.412	0	0	2	3	0	4	2	12
11Kai BaileyMB	3	5	3	11	.182	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	6
3Angeles AldereteOH	3	4	4	11	.000	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	5
1Taryn GilreathS	3	2	0	4	.500	31	0	2	4	0	1	0.5	2.5
7Nina EdwardsMB	3	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
6Ekwe AnwahMB	3	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
22Brook WatkinsS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
16Clara CloningerDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
8Allison ButrumL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
2Brooklyn AllisonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0
4Emma OrtizL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
21Jaci HallOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Kanani MageeOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Lhogan WrightOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Melanie PinalesMB	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
40Naala KasungaOPP	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	22	94	.128	33	5	8	34	5	10	5	54

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 8 MD · E CAR 4

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 4 MDE CAR 3

Set 2*

25-15

Longest run 8 MDE CAR 4

Set 3*

25-21

Longest run 3 MDE CAR 3

Bars above the line = East Carolina leads, below = Maryland leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Maryland

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	60%3/5	33%1/3
2	100%2/2	0%0/2
3	100%2/2	60%3/5
4	50%2/4	50%2/4
5	100%2/2	67%4/6
6	50%2/4	50%2/4
All	68%13/19	50%12/24

East Carolina

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%2/2	40%2/5
2	40%2/5	0%0/2
3	50%2/4	0%0/2
4	33%2/6	50%2/4
5	50%2/4	0%0/2
6	67%2/3	50%2/4
All	50%12/24	32%6/19

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (1 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

129 rallies

Rally log

#	MD-E CAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	E CAR	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.9
2	1-1	MD	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.9
3	2-1	E CAR	MD	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.9
4	2-2	MD	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.0
5	3-2	E CAR	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Raina Chwialkowski	+0.9
6	4-2	MD	MD	Attack err	Kai Bailey		+1.3
7	4-3	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.9
8	4-4	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	E CAR server	aced Elayna Davidson	+1.5
9	5-4	E CAR	MD×4	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+1.0
10	6-4	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+1.3
11	7-4	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Nina Edwards	blk Eva Rohrbach, Sara Toth	+1.2
12	8-4	MD	MD×4	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.9
13	8-5	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.6
14	9-5	E CAR	MD×3	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.6
15	10-5	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+0.8
16	11-5	MD	MD×3	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.6
17	11-6	MD	E CAR×3	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
18	11-7	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Sydney Bryant	blk Aulie Huff, Nina Edwards	+0.6
19	11-8	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Ellie Pate		+0.9
20	12-8	E CAR	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.7
21	12-9	MD	E CAR×3	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.6
22	12-10	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Ava Brown		+1.2
23	12-11	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.6
24	13-11	E CAR	MD	Attack err	Aulie Huff	blk Sydney Bryant, Duru Gökçen	+1.1
25	13-12	MD	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.1
26	14-12	E CAR	MD×4	Attack err	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.2
27	15-12	MD	MD×4	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+1.5
28	16-12	MD	MD×4	Attack err	Kai Bailey	blk Brooklynne Brass	+1.2
29	17-12	MD	MD×4	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.8
30	17-13	MD	E CAR	Serve err	MD server		+0.4
31	18-13	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.5
32	19-13	MD	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.5
33	19-14	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.2
34	19-15	E CAR	E CAR	Attack err	Ava Brown		+0.5
35	20-15	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.5
36	21-15	MD	MD	Ace	MD server	aced Ellie Pate	+0.4
37	21-16	MD	E CAR	Kill	Taryn Gilreath		+0.1
38	22-16	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.2
39	22-17	MD	E CAR	Attack err	Sydney Bryant	blk Nina Edwards, Aulie Huff	+0.1
40	23-17	E CAR	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.2
41	24-17	MD	MD	Kill	Sydney Bryant	set Sara Toth	+0.1
42	24-18	MD	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete		+0.0
43	25-18	E CAR	MD	Attack err	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	MD	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.7
2	1-1	E CAR	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.7
3	1-2	MD	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.8
4	2-2	E CAR	MD×3	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.7
5	3-2	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+1.0
6	4-2	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Kai Bailey	blk Eva Rohrbach, Brooklynne Brass	+0.9
7	4-3	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.6
8	5-3	E CAR	MD	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Ava Brown, Brooklynne Brass	+0.6
9	6-3	MD	MD	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+0.8
10	6-4	MD	E CAR	Kill	Nina Edwards	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
11	7-4	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.5
12	7-5	MD	E CAR	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
13	7-6	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	E CAR server	aced Addie Canady	+1.0
14	8-6	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.6
15	9-6	MD	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.9
16	9-7	MD	E CAR×4	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.5
17	9-8	E CAR	E CAR×4	Attack err	Marlee Sivak	blk Aulie Huff, Kai Bailey	+1.0
18	9-9	E CAR	E CAR×4	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Clara Cloninger	+1.2
19	9-10	E CAR	E CAR×4	Ace	E CAR server	aced TEAM	+1.4
20	10-10	E CAR	MD	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.9
21	10-11	MD	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.0
22	11-11	E CAR	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.9
23	11-12	MD	E CAR	Kill	Angeles Alderete	set Taryn Gilreath	+1.1
24	12-12	E CAR	MD×8	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Ellie Pate	+1.0
25	13-12	MD	MD×8	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+1.4
26	14-12	MD	MD×8	Attack err	Ellie Pate		+1.3
27	15-12	MD	MD×8	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+1.1
28	16-12	MD	MD×8	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Ava Brown, Eva Rohrbach	+0.8
29	17-12	MD	MD×8	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Ava Brown, Eva Rohrbach	+0.6
30	18-12	MD	MD×8	Ace	MD server	aced Ellie Pate	+0.4
31	19-12	MD	MD×8	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Eva Rohrbach, Ava Brown	+0.2
32	19-13	MD	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.1
33	20-13	E CAR	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.1
34	20-14	MD	E CAR	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.1
35	21-14	E CAR	MD×3	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.1
36	22-14	MD	MD×3	Kill	Eva Rohrbach		+0.1
37	23-14	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Aulie Huff		+0.0
38	23-15	MD	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.0
39	24-15	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.0
40	25-15	MD	MD	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	E CAR	MD	Bad set	Ellie Pate		+0.3
2	1-1	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
3	2-1	E CAR	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Eva Rohrbach	+0.3
4	2-2	MD	E CAR	Serve err	MD server		+0.3
5	3-2	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.3
6	3-3	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah		+0.4
7	4-3	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.3
8	5-3	MD	MD	Attack err	Angeles Alderete		+0.5
9	5-4	MD	E CAR	Kill	Aulie Huff	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
10	6-4	E CAR	MD	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.3
11	6-5	MD	E CAR	Serve err	MD server		+0.3
12	6-6	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	E CAR server	aced TEAM	+0.6
13	7-6	E CAR	MD	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.4
14	8-6	MD	MD	Ace	MD server	aced Ellie Pate	+0.5
15	8-7	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
16	8-8	E CAR	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.6
17	9-8	E CAR	MD×3	Kill	Duru Gökçen		+0.4
18	10-8	MD	MD×3	Kill	Ava Brown		+0.5
19	11-8	MD	MD×3	Attack err	Ekwe Anwah		+0.5
20	11-9	MD	E CAR	Attack err	Brooklynne Brass	blk Ekwe Anwah, Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
21	12-9	E CAR	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.3
22	12-10	MD	E CAR	Attack err	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.3
23	12-11	E CAR	E CAR	Ace	E CAR server	aced Elayna Davidson	+0.6
24	13-11	E CAR	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass	set Sara Toth	+0.4
25	14-11	MD	MD	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
26	14-12	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ekwe Anwah	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
27	15-12	E CAR	MD	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.3
28	15-13	MD	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
29	16-13	E CAR	MD	Attack err	Ellie Pate	blk Duru Gökçen	+0.4
30	16-14	MD	E CAR	Kill	Kai Bailey	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.3
31	17-14	E CAR	MD	Kill	Ava Brown	set Sara Toth	+0.4
32	18-14	MD	MD	Ace	MD server	aced TEAM	+0.4
33	18-15	MD	E CAR	Serve err	MD server		+0.2
34	19-15	E CAR	MD	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.3
35	19-16	MD	E CAR	Kill	Ellie Pate	set Taryn Gilreath	+0.2
36	20-16	E CAR	MD	Serve err	E CAR server		+0.3
37	20-17	MD	E CAR	Bad set	Elayna Davidson		+0.2
38	21-17	E CAR	MD	Kill	Eva Rohrbach	set Sara Toth	+0.3
39	21-18	MD	E CAR×3	Kill	Aulie Huff		+0.2
40	21-19	E CAR	E CAR×3	Kill	Taryn Gilreath	set Kai Bailey	+0.5
41	21-20	E CAR	E CAR×3	Attack err	Marlee Sivak	blk Aulie Huff, Kai Bailey	+0.8
42	22-20	E CAR	MD	Kill	Brooklynne Brass		+0.7
43	23-20	MD	MD	Ace	MD server	aced Ellie Pate	+0.7
44	23-21	MD	E CAR	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
45	24-21	E CAR	MD	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.5
46	25-21	MD	MD	Kill	Duru Gökçen	set Sara Toth	+0.2

Score shown after each rally, Maryland first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.