Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on B1G+

Maryland def. Northwestern 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Maryland 74.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Maryland beat visiting Northwestern 3-2 (25-19, 18-25, 25-18, 17-25, 19-17) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Brooklynne Brass led Maryland with 19 kills; Northwestern's Isabella Bullington had a match-high 22.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set12345Sets
NW19251825172
MD25182517193

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Sara Toth had 57 assists, and Maryland outlasted Northwestern.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Maryland's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Maryland went in as RallyIQ's 75% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Northwestern 5–6 Maryland

    Northwestern scored 4 straight to turn a 5–6 deficit into a 9–6 lead. The match swung to Northwestern.

    Maryland 68% → 24%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Northwestern 13–9 Maryland

    From here Maryland won 10 of 14 rallies to take the set 19–17, and with it the match.

    Maryland 6% → >99%

Maryland above 50Northwestern belowMax swing 29.4%

NorthwesternMaryland

Sideout %
Northwestern 51.9·Maryland 51.9
Break %
Northwestern 48.1·Maryland 48.1
Hitting
Northwestern .219·Maryland .278
Longest run
Northwestern 6·Maryland 6

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Maryland above 50 · Northwestern below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+29.4% MDrally 208 · set 5

Biggest swing: 29.4% to Maryland — set 5, NW 14-14 MD. Mara Stiglic stuffed by Sara Toth. MD win probability 22% → 51%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NW 29.6%70.4% MD

Northwestern wins

3-0
5.6%
3-1
10.4%
3-2
13.6%

Maryland wins

3-0
23.5%
3-1
27.0%
3-2
19.9%
NW break %
38.7% vs this opp
MD break %
42.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Sara TothBlock+29.4%

    Mara Stiglic stuffed by Sara Toth

    Set 5 · NW 14-14 MD · MD 22% → 51%

  2. 02

    Mara Stiglic stuffed by Eva Rohrbach & Sara Toth

    Set 5 · NW 14-15 MD · MD 51% → 77%

  3. 03
    Ava BrownKill+22.9%

    Kill by Ava Brown (set by Sara Toth)

    Set 5 · NW 17-19 MD · MD 77% → 100%

  4. 04
    Mara StiglicKill+16.9%

    Kill by Mara Stiglic (set by Gigi Navarrete)

    Set 5 · NW 15-15 MD · NW 23% → 40%

  5. 05
    Sydney BryantKill+16.9%

    Kill by Sydney Bryant (set by Elayna Davidson)

    Set 5 · NW 15-16 MD · MD 60% → 77%

  6. 06

    Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Gigi Navarrete)

    Set 5 · NW 16-16 MD · NW 23% → 40%

  7. 07
    Duru GökçenBlock+16.9%

    Isabella Bullington stuffed by Duru Gökçen

    Set 5 · NW 16-17 MD · MD 60% → 77%

  8. 08

    Kill by Isabella Bullington (set by Ellie Stiernagle)

    Set 5 · NW 17-17 MD · NW 23% → 40%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520854.22202191132.524.5
514235.34300030111.515.5
55212.250000000216
5127-.143451090153.55.5
5025-.40000030174.54.5
5003.000230700003
522949.2651003200022
5000–2311200003
5001.0003111230001
5000–611800001
1102.500000000001
1011-1.000000000000
Team totals6326169.2195911466641813104
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
519046.413000182132.521.5
518327.55600100132.520.5
5131046.0650001300013
511532.18800040111.512.5
56211.36420000334.510.5
5005.0005722901224
5000–6321200003
5000–1111720001
3001.000000600000
2001.000000310000
Team totals6720169.2786666701171213104

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 NW · MD 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 6 NWMD 6

Set 2

25-18

Longest run 4 NWMD 5

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 NWMD 6

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 4 NWMD 3

Set 5

17-19

Longest run 4 NWMD 4

Bars above the line = Maryland leads, below = Northwestern leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Northwestern

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%10/21
27%3/11
2
63%10/16
62%16/26
3
67%10/15
29%4/14
4
42%10/24
44%8/18
5
53%8/15
47%8/17
6
46%6/13
61%11/18
All
52%54/104
48%50/104

Maryland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
56%10/18
53%9/17
2
50%10/20
23%3/13
3
67%10/15
50%10/20
4
59%10/17
58%14/24
5
35%8/23
40%6/15
6
55%6/11
53%8/15
All
52%54/104
48%50/104

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

208 rallies

#NW-MDSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MDMD×4KillSydney Bryantset Duru Gökçen+2.0
20-2MDMD×4KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+1.9
30-3MDMD×4KillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+1.7
40-4MDMD×4KillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+1.5
51-4MDNW×6BlockedAva Brownblk Campbell Paris+0.9
62-4NWNW×6BlockedSydney Bryantblk Campbell Paris, Kayla Kauffman+1.6
73-4NWNW×6AceNorthwesternaced Sydney Bryant+1.9
84-4NWNW×6BlockedSydney Bryantblk Kayla Kauffman+2.2
95-4NWNW×6Attack errAva Brown+2.4
106-4NWNW×6AceNorthwestern+2.5
116-5NWMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+1.6
127-5MDNWKillCampbell Parisset Cate Schnell+1.8
137-6NWMDKillAva Brownset Duru Gökçen+1.6
148-6MDNWBlockedAva Brownblk Mara Stiglic, Kayla Kauffman+1.8
158-7NWMD×4KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.6
168-8MDMD×4KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+2.6
178-9MDMD×4AceMarylandaced Isabella Bullington+2.5
188-10MDMD×4KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.3
199-10MDNWServe errMaryland+1.5
2010-10NWNWKillIsabella Bullington+2.6
2110-11NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.7
2211-11MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.8
2312-11NWNWAceNorthwesternaced Elayna Davidson+3.0
2412-12NWMDKillSydney Bryantset Raina Chwialkowski+1.9
2513-12MDNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.1
2613-13NWMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+2.0
2714-13MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Drew Wright+2.2
2814-14NWMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+2.1
2915-14MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Cate Schnell+2.4
3015-15NWMD×4Serve errNorthwestern+2.2
3115-16MDMD×4AceMarylandaced Gigi Navarrete+3.3
3215-17MDMD×4KillBrooklynne Brassset Raina Chwialkowski+3.1
3315-18MDMD×4AceMarylandaced Gigi Navarrete+2.6
3416-18MDNW×3BlockedAva Brownblk Mara Stiglic, Kayla Kauffman+1.4
3517-18NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.9
3618-18NWNW×3AceNorthwesternaced Haley Melby+3.8
3718-19NWMD×6KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.7
3818-20MDMD×6Attack errKayla Kauffman+3.7
3918-21MDMD×6BlockedEllie Stiernagleblk Eva Rohrbach, Brooklynne Brass+2.9
4018-22MDMD×6Attack errIsabella Bullington+1.9
4118-23MDMD×6KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.0
4218-24MDMD×6KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+0.3
4319-24MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle·
4419-25NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+0.1
Set 2
10-1NWMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+1.0
21-1MDNW×4KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.1
32-1NWNW×4AceNorthwestern+1.8
43-1NWNW×4KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
54-1NWNW×4BlockedAva Brownblk Mara Stiglic, Maya Stillwell+1.9
64-2NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.2
75-2MDNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
85-3NWMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+1.2
96-3MDNW×3KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.4
107-3NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Lauren Dignan+2.0
118-3NWNW×3Attack errSydney Bryant+1.9
128-4NWMDAttack errMara Stiglic+1.0
139-4MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
149-5NWMDServe errNorthwestern+1.0
1510-5MDNWServe errMaryland+1.3
1611-5NWNWAceNorthwesternaced Sydney Bryant+1.7
1711-6NWMDKillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+0.8
1811-7MDMDAttack errMaya Stillwell+1.6
1912-7MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
2012-8NWMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+1.0
2112-9MDMDAceMarylandaced Isabella Bullington+1.8
2213-9MDNW×4Serve errMaryland+1.5
2314-9NWNW×4AceNorthwestern+2.0
2415-9NWNW×4Attack errCampbell Paris+1.7
2516-9NWNW×4Attack errEva Rohrbach+1.3
2616-10NWMD×5KillAva Brownset Raina Chwialkowski+0.5
2716-11MDMD×5Attack errMara Stiglic+1.1
2816-12MDMD×5KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.5
2916-13MDMD×5KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.9
3016-14MDMD×5BlockedCampbell Parisblk Eva Rohrbach, Brooklynne Brass+2.3
3117-14MDNW×3BlockedEva Rohrbachblk Mara Stiglic+1.9
3218-14NWNW×3AceNorthwesternaced Elayna Davidson+2.5
3319-14NWNW×3Bad setSara Toth+2.0
3419-15NWMDBad setEllie Stiernagle+0.8
3520-15MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
3621-15NWNWBad setSydney Bryant+1.2
3721-16NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+0.4
3822-16MDNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.7
3923-16NWNW×3BlockedSydney Bryantblk Kayla Kauffman, Ellie Stiernagle+0.5
4024-16NWNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
4124-17NWMDKillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth·
4224-18MDMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth·
4325-18MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
Set 3
10-1MDMD×3BlockedMaya Stillwellblk Brooklynne Brass, Duru Gökçen+2.9
20-2MDMD×3KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.7
30-3MDMD×3Attack errIsabella Bullington+2.5
41-3MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
51-4NWMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+1.6
62-4MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
72-5NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.7
83-5MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.6
93-6NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.7
104-6MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
114-7NWMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+1.8
125-7MDNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
136-7NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+3.0
147-7NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+3.4
157-8NWMD×6KillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+2.3
167-9MDMD×6BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Ava Brown, Duru Gökçen+3.3
177-10MDMD×6AceMarylandaced Mara Stiglic+2.9
187-11MDMD×6AceMarylandaced Gigi Navarrete+2.5
197-12MDMD×6BlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Ava Brown+2.0
207-13MDMD×6KillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+1.5
218-13MDNWServe errMaryland+0.8
229-13NWNWAttack errSydney Bryant+1.6
239-14NWMDServe errNorthwestern+1.3
2410-14MDNW×3KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+1.1
2511-14NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.2
2612-14NWNW×3Bad setSara Toth+2.9
2712-15NWMDKillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+2.2
2813-15MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.0
2913-16NWMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Raina Chwialkowski+2.3
3014-16MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Drew Wright+2.0
3114-17NWMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.4
3214-18MDMDKillEva Rohrbachset Eva Rohrbach+2.8
3315-18MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.4
3415-19NWMD×5KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.9
3515-20MDMD×5Attack errMara Stiglic+1.9
3615-21MDMD×5KillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+1.0
3715-22MDMD×5BlockedGabrielle Gerryblk Duru Gökçen, Sara Toth+0.5
3815-23MDMD×5KillDuru Gökçenset Sara Toth+0.2
3916-23MDNW×3KillLily Wagnerset Ellie Stiernagle·
4017-23NWNW×3KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+0.1
4118-23NWNW×3Attack errDuru Gökçen+0.2
4218-24NWMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+0.3
4318-25MDMDAttack errIsabella Bullington+0.1
Set 4
11-0NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+2.6
21-1NWMDBlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Duru Gökçen+1.7
31-2MDMDBlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Brooklynne Brass+2.5
42-2MDNW×4KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+1.7
53-2NWNW×4KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+2.8
64-2NWNW×4KillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+2.9
75-2NWNW×4AceNorthwesternaced Brooklynne Brass+3.0
85-3NWMD×3KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+1.8
95-4MDMD×3KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.8
105-5MDMD×3KillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.8
116-5MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Lauren Dignan+2.0
126-6NWMDServe errNorthwestern+1.9
136-7MDMDAttack errCampbell Paris+2.8
147-7MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+1.9
157-8NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.9
167-9MDMDBlockedMara Stiglicblk Duru Gökçen+2.7
178-9MDNW×3Serve errMaryland+1.8
189-9NWNW×3AceNorthwesternaced Brooklynne Brass+3.0
1910-9NWNW×3BlockedSydney Bryantblk Kayla Kauffman, Ellie Stiernagle+3.4
2010-10NWMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+2.2
2110-11MDMDAttack errKayla Kauffman+3.2
2211-11MDNW×3KillMara Stiglicset Isabella Bullington+2.2
2312-11NWNW×3KillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+3.6
2413-11NWNW×3KillMaya Stillwell+3.9
2513-12NWMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+2.3
2614-12MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+2.7
2714-13NWMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+2.4
2814-14MDMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+3.9
2915-14MDNWServe errMaryland+2.8
3015-15NWMDAttack errMara Stiglic+2.6
3116-15MDNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.0
3217-15NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+4.6
3317-16NWMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+2.7
3418-16MDNW×4KillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+3.4
3519-16NWNW×4AceNorthwesternaced Sydney Bryant+4.7
3620-16NWNW×4Attack errEva Rohrbach+3.9
3721-16NWNW×4BlockedSydney Bryantblk Ellie Stiernagle, Kayla Kauffman+2.8
3821-17NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+1.0
3922-17MDNW×4KillEllie Stiernagleset Cate Schnell+1.8
4023-17NWNW×4KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+1.3
4124-17NWNW×4BlockedSydney Bryantblk Ellie Stiernagle+0.4
4225-17NWNW×4KillIsabella Bullingtonset Gigi Navarrete+1.5
Set 5
11-0MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Drew Wright+6.2
21-1NWMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+5.8
32-1MDNWKillCampbell Parisset Drew Wright+6.4
43-1NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+10.0
53-2NWMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+6.0
64-2MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+7.1
74-3NWMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Raina Chwialkowski+6.2
84-4MDMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+10.0
95-4MDNWBlockedSydney Bryantblk Ellie Stiernagle, Kayla Kauffman+7.4
105-5NWMDAttack errEllie Stiernagle+6.9
115-6MDMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+10.5
126-6MDNW×4KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+7.2
137-6NWNW×4Attack errDuru Gökçen+12.1
148-6NWNW×4BlockedSydney Bryantblk Ellie Stiernagle, Maya Stillwell+12.8
159-6NWNW×4KillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+12.1
169-7NWMDAttack errIsabella Bullington+6.1
1710-7MDNWKillMaya Stillwellset Ellie Stiernagle+8.7
1811-7NWNWKillCampbell Parisset Ellie Stiernagle+10.2
1911-8NWMDKillAva Brownset Raina Chwialkowski+4.0
2012-8MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+6.8
2112-9NWMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+3.5
2213-9MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+6.5
2313-10NWMDKillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+2.7
2413-11MDMDKillBrooklynne Brassset Sara Toth+7.7
2514-11MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Ellie Stiernagle+10.1
2614-12NWMD×4KillEva Rohrbachset Sara Toth+3.5
2714-13MDMD×4BlockedMara Stiglicblk Eva Rohrbach+12.5
2814-14MDMD×4BlockedMara Stiglicblk Sara Toth+29.4
2914-15MDMD×4BlockedMara Stiglicblk Eva Rohrbach, Sara Toth+25.9
3015-15MDNWKillMara Stiglicset Gigi Navarrete+16.9
3115-16NWMDKillSydney Bryantset Elayna Davidson+16.9
3216-16MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Gigi Navarrete+16.9
3316-17NWMDBlockedIsabella Bullingtonblk Duru Gökçen+16.9
3417-17MDNWKillIsabella Bullingtonset Ellie Stiernagle+16.9
3517-18NWMDKillSydney Bryantset Sara Toth+16.9
3617-19MDMDKillAva Brownset Sara Toth+22.9

Score shown after each rally, Northwestern first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).