FinalSun, Sep 6, 2026

AwayBIG-EAST

3:0

HomeATLANTIC-10

Providence def. Rhode Island 3–0

(25-19, 25-14, 25-19)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
PROV	25	25	25	3
URI	19	14	19	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

URI above 50 · PROV below

Biggest swing: 1.7% to Providence — set 1, PROV 21-18 URI. Attack error by Emily Sawyer. URI win probability 13% → 11%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

PROV 83.4%16.6% URI

Providence wins

3-0

35.1%

3-1

31.0%

3-2

17.2%

Rhode Island wins

3-0

2.5%

3-1

5.4%

3-2

8.7%

PROV break %: 47.9% vs this opp
URI break %: 40.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Emily SawyerAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Emily Sawyer
Set 1 · PROV 21-18 URI · PROV 87% → 89%
02
Cara RichterKill+1.7%
Kill by Cara Richter (set by Dakota Henry)
Set 1 · PROV 20-18 URI · URI 11% → 13%
03
Sophia AdkinsAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Sophia Adkins
Set 1 · PROV 2-3 URI · URI 17% → 19%
04
Tori OtterAttack error+1.7%
Attack error by Tori Otter
Set 1 · PROV 18-16 URI · URI 12% → 14%
05
Lyric BerryKill+1.6%
Kill by Lyric Berry (set by Sarah Musial)
Set 1 · PROV 5-4 URI · PROV 83% → 84%
06
Sophia AdkinsKill+1.5%
Kill by Sophia Adkins (set by Miller McDonald)
Set 1 · PROV 19-16 URI · PROV 86% → 88%
07
PROV serverAce+1.5%
Providence ace on KJ Johnson
Set 1 · PROV 22-18 URI · PROV 89% → 90%
08
Havyn RolleAttack error+1.5%
Havyn Rolle stuffed by Aubrey Easterwood & Tori Otter
Set 1 · PROV 20-16 URI · PROV 88% → 89%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Providenceaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
9Tori OtterMB	3	11	4	24	.292	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	12
0Aubrey EasterwoodMB	3	7	2	15	.333	1	1	2	3	0	1	5	3.5	11.5
21Sophia AdkinsOH	3	9	5	28	.143	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	9
11Lyric BerryMB	3	7	1	10	.600	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	8.5
15Macy TaylorOH	3	3	0	11	.273	0	0	2	6	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Miller McDonaldS	3	1	0	2	.500	19	2	0	11	0	0	0	0	3
7Shea DupuisOH	3	8	1	16	.438	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1.5	9.5
20Sarah MusialS	3	1	1	3	.000	14	4	1	5	0	0	0	0	5
6Ava DyerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	5	1	2	14	0	0	0	0	1
27Kaia EasterbrookMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		47	14	109	.303	40	8	8	49	2	2	12	8	75

Rhode Islandhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
17Cara RichterOH	3	7	4	21	.143	0	1	0	6	4	1	0.5	8.5
6KJ JohnsonMB	3	4	3	12	.083	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.5	5.5
18Emily SawyerMB	3	3	2	14	.071	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	4
12Chloe AbutoOH	3	1	1	4	.000	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
2Jahan LalliS	3	0	0	0	–	12	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
13Havyn RolleOH	2	4	5	19	-.053	0	0	0	4	2	1	0.5	4.5
25Grace KeaneyOH	3	6	2	16	.250	0	0	0	3	0	3	1.5	7.5
23Carly ThomasS	3	0	0	0	–	11	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
20Dakota HenryL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	13	0	0	0	0
3Sydney HouchensOH	2	3	0	15	.200	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	3
21Hannah JonickMB	2	0	2	4	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Reagan NisbetDS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0
Team totals		28	19	105	.086	28	2	1	45	8	10	5	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 10 PROV · URI 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 PROVURI 2

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 10 PROVURI 3

Set 3

25-19

Longest run 4 PROVURI 4

Bars above the line = Rhode Island leads, below = Providence leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Providence

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	25%2/8
2	80%8/10	27%3/11
3	70%7/10	72%18/25
4	71%5/7	29%2/7
5	63%5/8	50%5/10
6	83%5/6	58%7/12
All	70%38/54	51%37/73

Rhode Island

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	62%8/13	30%3/10
2	47%7/15	27%3/11
3	38%6/16	30%3/10
4	42%5/12	25%2/8
5	50%5/10	44%4/9
6	71%5/7	17%1/6
All	49%36/73	30%16/54

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	PROV-URI	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	URI	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+1.1
2	1-1	PROV	URI	Serve err	PROV server		+1.2
3	2-1	URI	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.1
4	2-2	PROV	URI	Serve err	PROV server		+1.2
5	2-3	URI	URI	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+1.7
6	3-3	URI	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+1.3
7	3-4	PROV	URI	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood	blk Chloe Abuto, Havyn Rolle	+1.4
8	4-4	URI	PROV×4	Attack err	Cara Richter	blk Shea Dupuis, Aubrey Easterwood	+1.3
9	5-4	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+1.6
10	6-4	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Havyn Rolle	+1.4
11	7-4	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Shea Dupuis		+1.3
12	7-5	PROV	URI	Kill	Cara Richter	set Carly Thomas	+1.0
13	8-5	URI	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.0
14	9-5	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Havyn Rolle		+1.1
15	9-6	PROV	URI	Kill	Grace Keaney	set Carly Thomas	+0.8
16	10-6	URI	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.9
17	10-7	PROV	URI	Kill	Havyn Rolle	set Carly Thomas	+0.9
18	10-8	URI	URI	Kill	Havyn Rolle	set Dakota Henry	+1.3
19	11-8	URI	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.1
20	12-8	PROV	PROV	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood		+1.2
21	12-9	PROV	URI	Kill	Emily Sawyer	set Jahan Lalli	+0.9
22	13-9	URI	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
23	13-10	PROV	URI	Kill	KJ Johnson	set Jahan Lalli	+0.9
24	14-10	URI	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.0
25	14-11	PROV	URI	Kill	Emily Sawyer	set Jahan Lalli	+0.9
26	15-11	URI	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.0
27	16-11	PROV	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+1.0
28	16-12	PROV	URI	Attack err	Sarah Musial		+0.6
29	17-12	URI	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.8
30	17-13	PROV	URI	Kill	Grace Keaney	set Carly Thomas	+0.6
31	17-14	URI	URI	Kill	Grace Keaney	set Carly Thomas	+1.2
32	18-14	URI	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.1
33	18-15	PROV	URI	Kill	Havyn Rolle	set Carly Thomas	+0.9
34	18-16	URI	URI	Attack err	Tori Otter		+1.7
35	19-16	URI	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+1.5
36	20-16	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Havyn Rolle	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+1.5
37	20-17	PROV	URI	Kill	Cara Richter	set Jahan Lalli	+0.9
38	20-18	URI	URI	Kill	Cara Richter	set Dakota Henry	+1.7
39	21-18	URI	PROV×4	Attack err	Emily Sawyer		+1.7
40	22-18	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced KJ Johnson	+1.5
41	23-18	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Sarah Musial	+0.8
42	24-18	PROV	PROV×4	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.3
43	24-19	PROV	URI	Attack err	Shea Dupuis	blk Cara Richter, KJ Johnson	+0.1
44	25-19	URI	PROV	Attack err	Cara Richter	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis	+0.1
Set 2
1	1-0	PROV	PROV	Attack err	KJ Johnson		+1.0
2	2-0	PROV	PROV	Attack err	KJ Johnson	blk Lyric Berry	+0.9
3	2-1	PROV	URI×3	Kill	Cara Richter	set Jahan Lalli	+0.8
4	2-2	URI	URI×3	Ace	URI server	aced Sophia Adkins	+1.1
5	2-3	URI	URI×3	Attack err	Tori Otter		+1.2
6	3-3	URI	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+0.9
7	3-4	PROV	URI	Serve err	PROV server		+1.0
8	3-5	URI	URI	Attack err	Sophia Adkins	blk Grace Keaney, Chloe Abuto	+1.4
9	4-5	URI	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
10	5-5	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Grace Keaney		+1.3
11	5-6	PROV	URI	Kill	Chloe Abuto	set Carly Thomas	+1.1
12	6-6	URI	PROV×3	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
13	7-6	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Cara Richter	+1.2
14	8-6	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Sarah Musial	set Cara Richter	+1.1
15	8-7	PROV	URI	Kill	Havyn Rolle	set Dakota Henry	+0.9
16	8-8	URI	URI	Attack err	Sophia Adkins		+1.3
17	9-8	URI	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+1.0
18	9-9	PROV	URI	Kill	Grace Keaney	set Carly Thomas	+1.1
19	10-9	URI	PROV×3	Attack err	Havyn Rolle		+1.1
20	11-9	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+1.2
21	12-9	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+1.1
22	12-10	PROV	URI	Kill	KJ Johnson	set Jahan Lalli	+0.8
23	13-10	URI	PROV	Kill	Lyric Berry	set Sarah Musial	+0.9
24	13-11	PROV	URI	Kill	Emily Sawyer	set Jahan Lalli	+0.9
25	14-11	URI	PROV	Serve err	URI server		+0.9
26	14-12	PROV	URI	Kill	Cara Richter	set Dakota Henry	+0.9
27	15-12	URI	PROV×10	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.9
28	16-12	PROV	PROV×10	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+1.0
29	17-12	PROV	PROV×10	Attack err	Grace Keaney		+0.7
30	18-12	PROV	PROV×10	Ace	PROV server	aced Havyn Rolle	+0.5
31	19-12	PROV	PROV×10	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.3
32	20-12	PROV	PROV×10	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.2
33	21-12	PROV	PROV×10	Attack err	Havyn Rolle		+0.1
34	22-12	PROV	PROV×10	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
35	23-12	PROV	PROV×10	Attack err	Hannah Jonick	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Tori Otter	+0.0
36	24-12	PROV	PROV×10	Kill	Aubrey Easterwood	set Miller McDonald	+0.0
37	24-13	PROV	URI	Serve err	PROV server		+0.0
38	24-14	URI	URI	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.0
39	25-14	URI	PROV	Attack err	Havyn Rolle		+0.0
Set 3
1	1-0	URI	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Miller McDonald	+0.4
2	1-1	PROV	URI	Kill	Grace Keaney	set Carly Thomas	+0.4
3	2-1	URI	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.4
4	3-1	PROV	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Ava Dyer	+0.5
5	3-2	PROV	URI	Attack err	Sophia Adkins	blk Grace Keaney, Emily Sawyer	+0.4
6	4-2	URI	PROV	Attack err	Cara Richter	blk Aubrey Easterwood, Shea Dupuis	+0.4
7	4-3	PROV	URI	Serve err	PROV server		+0.4
8	4-4	URI	URI	Kill	Cara Richter	set Jahan Lalli	+0.6
9	5-4	URI	PROV	Kill	Shea Dupuis	set Sarah Musial	+0.5
10	6-4	PROV	PROV	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Aubrey Easterwood	+0.5
11	6-5	PROV	URI×4	Serve err	PROV server		+0.4
12	6-6	URI	URI×4	Attack err	Lyric Berry		+0.6
13	6-7	URI	URI×4	Ace	URI server	aced Macy Taylor	+0.7
14	6-8	URI	URI×4	Kill	Sydney Houchens	set Jahan Lalli	+0.8
15	7-8	URI	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Ava Dyer	+0.6
16	8-8	PROV	PROV×3	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.7
17	9-8	PROV	PROV×3	Attack err	Hannah Jonick		+0.7
18	9-9	PROV	URI	Kill	KJ Johnson	set Jahan Lalli	+0.6
19	10-9	URI	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.5
20	10-10	PROV	URI	Kill	Sydney Houchens	set Jahan Lalli	+0.6
21	10-11	URI	URI	Attack err	Tori Otter		+0.8
22	11-11	URI	PROV	Kill	Miller McDonald	set Carly Thomas	+0.6
23	11-12	PROV	URI	Kill	Grace Keaney	set Carly Thomas	+0.7
24	12-12	URI	PROV×4	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.6
25	13-12	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Cara Richter	+0.8
26	14-12	PROV	PROV×4	Ace	PROV server	aced Cara Richter	+0.7
27	15-12	PROV	PROV×4	Attack err	Cara Richter		+0.6
28	15-13	PROV	URI	Attack err	Aubrey Easterwood		+0.5
29	15-14	URI	URI	Kill	Cara Richter	set KJ Johnson	+0.7
30	16-14	URI	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Sarah Musial	+0.6
31	16-15	PROV	URI	Kill	KJ Johnson	set Carly Thomas	+0.6
32	17-15	URI	PROV	Attack err	KJ Johnson	blk Aubrey Easterwood	+0.7
33	17-16	PROV	URI	Serve err	PROV server		+0.6
34	18-16	URI	PROV×3	Kill	Macy Taylor	set Sophia Adkins	+0.7
35	19-16	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Cara Richter	+0.7
36	20-16	PROV	PROV×3	Ace	PROV server	aced Reagan Nisbet	+0.5
37	20-17	PROV	URI	Kill	Sydney Houchens	set Jahan Lalli	+0.3
38	21-17	URI	PROV	Attack err	Chloe Abuto	blk Lyric Berry, Macy Taylor	+0.4
39	21-18	PROV	URI	Serve err	PROV server		+0.3
40	22-18	URI	PROV	Kill	Tori Otter	set Miller McDonald	+0.4
41	23-18	PROV	PROV	Attack err	Emily Sawyer		+0.3
42	23-19	PROV	URI	Attack err	Sophia Adkins	blk Emily Sawyer, Grace Keaney	+0.1
43	24-19	URI	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.2
44	25-19	PROV	PROV	Kill	Sophia Adkins	set Ava Dyer	+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Providence first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.