FinalTue, Sep 8, 2026

AwayMEAC

0:3

HomePATRIOT

American def. Howard 3–0

(25-19, 25-20, 25-19)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
HOWARD	19	20	19	0
AMER	25	25	25	3

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

AMER above 50 · HOWARD below

Biggest swing: 0.8% to Howard — set 2, HOWARD 18-17 AMER. Point Howard (not logged in NCAA feed). AMER win probability 98% → 97%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

HOWARD 3.4%96.6% AMER

Howard wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

0.9%

3-2

2.1%

American wins

3-0

60.8%

3-1

27.9%

3-2

8.0%

HOWARD break %: 37.5% vs this opp
AMER break %: 51.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Unlogged pointFeed gap+0.8%
Point Howard (not logged in NCAA feed)
Set 2 · HOWARD 18-17 AMER · HOWARD 2% → 3%
02
Salme HollasKill+0.7%
Kill by Salme Hollas (set by Bella Marrero)
Set 2 · HOWARD 20-22 AMER · AMER 98% → 99%
03
AMER serverAce+0.7%
American ace on Addison Buckner
Set 2 · HOWARD 18-19 AMER · AMER 97% → 98%
04
AMER serverService error+0.7%
American service error
Set 2 · HOWARD 20-20 AMER · HOWARD 2% → 3%
05
HOWARD serverService error+0.7%
Howard service error
Set 2 · HOWARD 20-21 AMER · AMER 97% → 98%
06
Sam McMillanAttack error+0.6%
Sam McMillan stuffed by Easnadh Nobel Toolo
Set 2 · HOWARD 19-19 AMER · HOWARD 2% → 3%
07
Carly SciborskiKill+0.6%
Kill by Carly Sciborski (set by Deniz Dakak)
Set 2 · HOWARD 19-20 AMER · AMER 97% → 98%
08
Sam McMillanAttack error+0.6%
Attack error by Sam McMillan
Set 2 · HOWARD 16-16 AMER · HOWARD 2% → 2%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Howardaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
21Addison BucknerOH	3	10	4	31	.194	1	0	3	7	2	0	0	0	10
18Zenai JethroeMB	3	4	5	18	-.056	0	1	3	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
6Sydnei JonesS	3	2	1	7	.143	21	1	1	8	0	0	2	1	4
7Easnadh Nobel TooloOH	3	2	2	11	.000	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	3
17Tiana StubbsMB	1	0	1	1	-1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	0.5
11Lauryn WileyL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
13Dayion JohnsonOH	3	4	3	26	.038	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	5.5
33Kennedi WrightOH	3	0	1	3	-.333	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	1
20Gabby AllenL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	5	1	0	0	0	1
12Camryn SheltonL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	11	1	0	0	0	0
15Kaitlynn RobinsonMB	2	2	1	4	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	2.5	4.5
Team totals		24	18	101	.059	22	4	10	39	6	2	10	7	58

Americanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Elise SterlingMB	3	9	2	22	.318	0	1	0	5	0	0	4	2	12
20Prinzez ZeckMB	3	7	4	13	.231	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2.5	9.5
17Salme HollasOH	3	7	3	22	.182	0	1	0	12	1	0	2	1	9
23Carly SciborskiOPP	3	8	2	18	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	9
5Deniz DakakS	3	2	0	5	.400	34	2	3	9	0	0	0	0	4
10Alex IoannouL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	0	1
15Sam McMillanOH	3	4	6	17	-.118	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4
3Bella MarreroL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	3	19	2	0	0	0	1
19Olivia MillerDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
4Emma BlankenshipMB	1	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Sydney GuerrierOPP	1	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		39	19	107	.187	38	6	10	54	4	2	10	7	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 HOWARD · AMER 6

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 2 HOWARDAMER 4

Set 2*

20-25

Longest run 4 HOWARDAMER 5

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 4 HOWARDAMER 6

Bars above the line = American leads, below = Howard leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Howard

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	45%5/11	20%1/5
2	36%4/11	29%2/7
3	100%4/4	43%3/7
4	44%4/9	0%0/4
5	44%4/9	43%3/7
6	67%4/6	50%4/8
All	50%25/50	34%13/38

American

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	71%5/7	55%6/11
2	57%4/7	64%7/11
3	100%4/4	0%0/4
4	57%4/7	56%5/9
5	50%4/8	56%5/9
6	80%4/5	33%2/6
All	66%25/38	50%25/50

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	HOWARD-AMER	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	AMER	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
2	0-2	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Lauryn Wiley	+0.3
3	1-2	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.3
4	1-3	HOWARD	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
5	1-4	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Zenai Jethroe	blk Elise Sterling, Salme Hollas	+0.3
6	1-5	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	AMER server	aced Team	+0.2
7	2-5	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.2
8	3-5	HOWARD	HOWARD	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Bella Marrero	+0.3
9	3-6	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Bella Marrero	+0.2
10	4-6	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Sydnei Jones	+0.3
11	4-7	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Tiana Stubbs	+0.3
12	5-7	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Sydnei Jones	+0.3
13	5-8	HOWARD	AMER	Attack err	Dayion Johnson		+0.3
14	6-8	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Sydnei Jones	set Addison Buckner	+0.3
15	7-8	HOWARD	HOWARD	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck	blk Tiana Stubbs, Dayion Johnson	+0.5
16	7-9	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
17	8-9	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.4
18	8-10	HOWARD	AMER	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.4
19	8-11	AMER	AMER	Bad set	Sydnei Jones		+0.4
20	9-11	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.3
21	9-12	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
22	10-12	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.3
23	11-12	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.6
24	11-13	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
25	12-13	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.5
26	12-14	HOWARD	AMER	Attack err	Addison Buckner		+0.5
27	13-14	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Sydnei Jones	+0.5
28	13-15	HOWARD	AMER×4	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
29	13-16	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Sydnei Jones	blk Prinzez Zeck	+0.5
30	13-17	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Tiana Stubbs		+0.4
31	13-18	AMER	AMER×4	Attack err	Dayion Johnson		+0.3
32	14-18	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Sydnei Jones	+0.2
33	15-18	HOWARD	HOWARD	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Olivia Miller	+0.3
34	15-19	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
35	15-20	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Addison Buckner	+0.3
36	16-20	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Easnadh Nobel Toolo	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
37	17-20	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Easnadh Nobel Toolo	set Sydnei Jones	+0.3
38	17-21	HOWARD	AMER×3	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
39	17-22	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Easnadh Nobel Toolo		+0.2
40	17-23	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
41	18-23	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.0
42	19-23	HOWARD	HOWARD	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+0.1
43	19-24	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
44	19-25	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Zenai Jethroe		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	HOWARD	HOWARD×4	Attack err	Prinzez Zeck		+0.3
2	2-0	HOWARD	HOWARD×4	Bad set	Deniz Dakak		+0.4
3	3-0	HOWARD	HOWARD×4	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Salme Hollas	+0.4
4	4-0	HOWARD	HOWARD×4	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+0.5
5	4-1	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
6	5-1	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
7	6-1	HOWARD	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe		+0.5
8	6-2	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.3
9	7-2	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Sydnei Jones	+0.5
10	7-3	HOWARD	AMER×3	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
11	7-4	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
12	7-5	AMER	AMER×3	Attack err	Kennedi Wright		+0.4
13	8-5	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
14	8-6	HOWARD	AMER	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.4
15	8-7	AMER	AMER	Attack err	Zenai Jethroe		+0.4
16	9-7	AMER	HOWARD	Attack err	Sam McMillan	blk Zenai Jethroe, Sydnei Jones	+0.4
17	9-8	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
18	10-8	AMER	HOWARD	Attack err	Salme Hollas	blk Kaitlynn Robinson	+0.4
19	10-9	HOWARD	AMER	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.4
20	10-10	AMER	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
21	11-10	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Kaitlynn Robinson	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
22	11-11	HOWARD	AMER	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.4
23	12-11	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
24	12-12	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
25	12-13	AMER	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
26	13-13	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.4
27	13-14	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
28	14-14	AMER	HOWARD	Attack err	Elise Sterling		+0.4
29	14-15	HOWARD	AMER	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.4
30	14-16	AMER	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.4
31	15-16	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Dayion Johnson	set Sydnei Jones	+0.4
32	16-16	HOWARD	HOWARD	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+0.6
33	16-17	HOWARD	AMER	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.4
34	17-17	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.5
35	18-17	HOWARD	HOWARD	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.8
36	18-18	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Sam McMillan	set Deniz Dakak	+0.6
37	18-19	AMER	AMER	Ace	AMER server	aced Addison Buckner	+0.7
38	19-19	AMER	HOWARD	Attack err	Sam McMillan	blk Easnadh Nobel Toolo	+0.6
39	19-20	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.6
40	20-20	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.7
41	20-21	HOWARD	AMER×5	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.7
42	20-22	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Bella Marrero	+0.7
43	20-23	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.5
44	20-24	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Bella Marrero	+0.2
45	20-25	AMER	AMER×5	Attack err	Addison Buckner	blk Elise Sterling, Carly Sciborski	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
2	2-0	HOWARD	HOWARD	Attack err	Salme Hollas		+0.2
3	2-1	HOWARD	AMER×5	Attack err	Zenai Jethroe	blk Prinzez Zeck, Salme Hollas	+0.1
4	2-2	AMER	AMER×5	Attack err	Addison Buckner	blk Carly Sciborski, Elise Sterling	+0.1
5	2-3	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
6	2-4	AMER	AMER×5	Kill	Carly Sciborski	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
7	2-5	AMER	AMER×5	Attack err	Easnadh Nobel Toolo		+0.1
8	3-5	AMER	HOWARD	Attack err	Carly Sciborski		+0.1
9	4-5	HOWARD	HOWARD	Attack err	Carly Sciborski		+0.1
10	4-6	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
11	5-6	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Addison Buckner	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
12	5-7	HOWARD	AMER	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.1
13	6-7	AMER	HOWARD×4	Kill	Sydnei Jones		+0.1
14	7-7	HOWARD	HOWARD×4	Ace	HOWARD server	aced Bella Marrero	+0.2
15	8-7	HOWARD	HOWARD×4	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+0.2
16	9-7	HOWARD	HOWARD×4	Attack err	Elise Sterling	blk Dayion Johnson, Kaitlynn Robinson	+0.2
17	9-8	HOWARD	AMER×3	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.2
18	9-9	AMER	AMER×3	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
19	9-10	AMER	AMER×3	Ace	AMER server	aced Camryn Shelton	+0.2
20	10-10	AMER	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+0.1
21	11-10	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Sam McMillan		+0.2
22	12-10	HOWARD	HOWARD×3	Attack err	Sydney Guerrier		+0.3
23	12-11	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Deniz Dakak	set Sam McMillan	+0.2
24	13-11	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.2
25	13-12	HOWARD	AMER	Attack err	Kaitlynn Robinson	blk Prinzez Zeck	+0.2
26	14-12	AMER	HOWARD	Attack err	Sydney Guerrier		+0.2
27	14-13	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
28	15-13	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.3
29	15-14	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
30	16-14	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.3
31	16-15	HOWARD	AMER×6	Kill	Salme Hollas	set Deniz Dakak	+0.2
32	16-16	AMER	AMER×6	Ace	AMER server	aced Gabby Allen	+0.3
33	16-17	AMER	AMER×6	Bad set	Addison Buckner		+0.2
34	16-18	AMER	AMER×6	Attack err	Zenai Jethroe	blk Emma Blankenship, Elise Sterling	+0.2
35	16-19	AMER	AMER×6	Attack err	Dayion Johnson		+0.2
36	16-20	AMER	AMER×6	Kill	Elise Sterling	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
37	17-20	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Zenai Jethroe	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
38	17-21	HOWARD	AMER	Serve err	HOWARD server		+0.1
39	18-21	AMER	HOWARD	Kill	Kaitlynn Robinson	set Sydnei Jones	+0.1
40	18-22	HOWARD	AMER	Kill	Emma Blankenship	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
41	18-23	AMER	AMER	Kill	Sydney Guerrier	set Deniz Dakak	+0.1
42	19-23	AMER	HOWARD	Serve err	AMER server		+0.0
43	19-24	HOWARD	AMER	Attack err	Addison Buckner		+0.0
44	19-25	AMER	AMER	Kill	Prinzez Zeck	set Deniz Dakak	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Howard first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.